Am I correct in that the proposed new playoff system gives automatic bids to the six highest ranked conference champions? And then six “at large” bids ?

If that’s the case, and the Big 12 dissolves, two of the five G5 conference champs would automatically be in the playoffs?


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That would assume that if the big 12 did dissolve they would still keep that same proposed format

That's just one of the reasons the B12 won't dissolve. Even if there's just 4 teams left, they can grab five other schools and have a good chance for a CFP12 spot. Which pays $10 million? And I think the payouts were going to go up once the expansion happens.

Those NCAA credits the BXII holds and the possible CFP spot is worth a lot.

(07-24-2021 11:13 AM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  That's just one of the reasons the B12 won't dissolve. Even if there's just 4 teams left, they can grab five other schools and have a good chance for a CFP12 spot. Which pays $10 million? And I think the payouts were going to go up once the expansion happens.

Those NCAA credits the BXII holds and the possible CFP spot is worth a lot.

Throw in the fees the departing members of the Big 12 will be facing, I agree the probability of the Big 12 folding are much less then the TV talking heads believe.


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(07-24-2021 11:23 AM)ODU1986 Wrote:  

(07-24-2021 11:13 AM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  That's just one of the reasons the B12 won't dissolve. Even if there's just 4 teams left, they can grab five other schools and have a good chance for a CFP12 spot. Which pays $10 million? And I think the payouts were going to go up once the expansion happens.

Those NCAA credits the BXII holds and the possible CFP spot is worth a lot.

Throw in the fees the departing members of the Big 12 will be facing, I agree the probability of the Big 12 folding are much less then the TV talking heads believe.


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Plus their already guaranteed Sugar Bowl game for the next several seasons which pays out $17 million per team.

(07-24-2021 11:13 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  That would assume that if the big 12 did dissolve they would still keep that same proposed format

Having a CFP12 is probably the only reason UT agreed to go to the SEC.

Making a CFP12 as a SEC #4 would be a lot more likely than making the CFP as BXII #2/3

(07-24-2021 11:13 AM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  That's just one of the reasons the B12 won't dissolve. Even if there's just 4 teams left, they can grab five other schools and have a good chance for a CFP12 spot. Which pays $10 million? And I think the payouts were going to go up once the expansion happens.

Those NCAA credits the BXII holds and the possible CFP spot is worth a lot.

And putting together a Big12 that is close to a lock for 5th or 6th highest ranking conference champion is pretty straightforward, since if they just take AAC three schools that media advisors tell them are most useful for cutting the drop in their media rights per school, they will be shopping from the top of the AAC FB and Basketball conference ladders, and as a side effect undermining the strength of schedule of those left behind.

Trying to figure out how all this can benefit us eastern G5 programs…

Big 12 folds, double the guaranteed access to the playoffs.

Big 12 stands and adds some AAC schools, greater the probability we could start to see the mythical east coast G5 conference develop.


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(07-24-2021 11:35 AM)ODU1986 Wrote:  Trying to figure out how all this can benefit us eastern G5 programs…

Big 12 folds, double the guaranteed access to the playoffs.

Big 12 stands and adds some AAC schools, greater the probability we could start to see the mythical east coast G5 conference develop.

Second one seems more likely ... if the Big12 takes BYU, Houston and two other AAC teams, and the AAC rebuilds to 10 with two teams from the CUSA, it might give the flexibility to bring the Eastern divisions together into one conference and the Western divisions into the other.

But with that many moving parts, nothing is certain until the ink is dry (and sometimes not even then).

The concept of a P5 and G5 is going away. All you will have is 9 or 10 conferences, clearly ranked in order from top to bottom, each with higher higher revenue than the one ranked just below it. And most likely higher odds of their teams making a 12 team playoff too.

1. SEC
2. BIG TEN
3. ACC, ND
4. PAC
5. Big 12
6. AAC
7. MWC
8. CUSA
9. SBC
10. MAC

(07-24-2021 11:41 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(07-24-2021 11:35 AM)ODU1986 Wrote:  Trying to figure out how all this can benefit us eastern G5 programs…

Big 12 folds, double the guaranteed access to the playoffs.

Big 12 stands and adds some AAC schools, greater the probability we could start to see the mythical east coast G5 conference develop.

Second one seems more likely ... if the Big12 takes BYU, Houston and two other AAC teams, and the AAC rebuilds to 10 with two teams from the CUSA, it might give the flexibility to bring the Eastern divisions together into one conference and the Western divisions into the other.

But with that many moving parts, nothing is certain until the ink is dry (and sometimes not even then).

Strictly talking football, if the AAC lost four, they would have seven left. Add in fourteen from CUSA and ten from SB, we have 31 in play.

The AAC would be so weakened, a geographic reshuffling could potentially make economic sense.


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(07-24-2021 11:10 AM)ODU1986 Wrote:  Am I correct in that the proposed new playoff system gives automatic bids to the six highest ranked conference champions? And then six “at large” bids ?

If that’s the case, and the Big 12 dissolves, two of the five G5 conference champs would automatically be in the playoffs?


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Nah. SEC would petition to have both their East and West champs recognized.

With the larger conferences move this thing to a 6+10 which gets more P5 teams but also lowers the bar for independents and G5.

XII expands to 16 and absorbs the AAC in its entirety. That means the MWC, CUSA, SBC and MAC fight over the last automatic spot every year.

If there are two undefeated champs out of the MWC/CUSA/MAC/SBC they are more protected needing only Top 16 to get in.

(07-24-2021 07:29 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m no expert, but using the valuations from the WSJ that JR had over on the SEC board by best guess is that this conference could pull about $15-16M per school. Not as bad as the $3M/school prophesy that came out of ISU a few years ago but still a steep hair cut.

Am I in the right ball park here?

Yes if they pick the right replacements. It's all about not watering down the valuation per school.

(07-24-2021 12:56 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  With the larger conferences move this thing to a 6+10 which gets more P5 teams but also lowers the bar for independents and G5.

XII expands to 16 and absorbs the AAC in its entirety. That means the MWC, CUSA, SBC and MAC fight over the last automatic spot every year.

If there are two undefeated champs out of the MWC/CUSA/MAC/SBC they are more protected needing only Top 16 to get in.

No. it's about money, it's about how many ways to cut the pie.

Beyond 10 you gain no more YV money, no more CFP spots, no more NCAA Basketball Tournament berths. You just add mouths to feed.

Add the best football program (IMO Luke Fickell at Cincinnati) and the best basketball program (Penny Hardaway at Memphis, which has a top 25 budget in the sport and also brings FedEx backing to the Big 12) and stop there. You want the best programming so that your package has maximum value to ESPN.

BYU brings you the biggest brand, have a completely new audience; but they expand your footprint from Morgantown to Provo, and a host of logistical (i.e., no Sunday games) and potentially legal and political issues (honor code policies). Are they worth it?

UCF and USF completely lack the basketball culture of the Big 12, which money alone cannot fix. They need fans to show up in the several thousands even when they play a Steson or Kennesaw State. That wont cut it in a 4+ bid conference. SMU is completely redundant with TCU, and just not as good at anything.

Houston is pretty solid in basketball (Kalvin Sampson is solid and respected) and football (Dana Holgorsen is solid enough). If Memphis' academics are just not acceptable enough, then Houston becomes my 2nd school.

Colorado State is a lot of meh. They have the resources, the academics, especially impressive as a research institution (legitimately would make the Pac-12 cut) and even are in the same top 60-70 basketball resource program with NIT and NCAA bids in recent years to merit a look. But they have just been mediocre and are second fiddle in Colorado's front rim. If they have a 9 or 10 win football season and another NCAA bid and tournament win, maybe that gets them on the map. But right now I have them as the underachieving could have been.

So if I'm the Big 12 I add two:

1. Cincinnati
2. Memphis (if academics can be overlooked and FedEx brings cash)
3. Houston (backup plan)

And I stop there.