(07-24-2021 11:53 AM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  If a weakened Big 12 survives it will have more motivation than ever to support the currently proposed 6-6 formula. It can decapitate the AAC or MWC but will have difficulty decapitating both

Best way to "decapitate" both would be to invite Boise, Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF. But my guess is the Big 12 goes for only AAC teams, and maybe only two if they learn that they'll get the same amount of TV money whether they have 10 teams or 12.

The Big Ten is the conference most likely to sour on the 12-team format if they think the SEC-16 would gobble up most of the at-large bids. If the Big Ten thinks the SEC will get four every year and leave everyone else to fight over the other two, they might push for an 8-team playoff or for a limit on the number of teams any one conference can have in the playoff. The Big Ten might lose that fight, but it wouldn't surprise me if they try. OTOH, maybe the Big Ten has a sky-high opinion of its non-Ohio State football teams and thinks they will grab 2 or 3 at-large spots every year.

But yes, every other conference will probably be ok, maybe not thrilled but at least ok, with the 12-team format as long as the 6 conference champs are guaranteed.

A twelve team CFP requires four rounds. Even assuming that the quarterfinals start around NYD, that really only leaves room for one week for CCGs before exams start to be problematic. If I'm tomorrow's SEC, I may want to stage a four team CCT in which I don't have to share the revenue with anyone else. The B1G might feel the same way.

Might they now prefer an 8 team tourney with five autobids, and no byes?

The CFP will almost certainly dictate a July 1st, 2023 departure for Texas and Oklahoma. The remaining Big 12 schools will not want either of them getting the automatic conference champion playoff spot.

Long run it means more competition for making the last 2 conference champion spots. The B12 will be fighting the MWC and AAC (and odd years some other conference champion).

If I had to speculate on how it breaks down it would be:

SEC = 3.5 spots (almost always 3, often 4)
B1G = 2.5 spots (always 2, often 3)
ACC = 1.75 spots (most years 2, but could see just 1)
P12 = 1.75 spots (most years 2, but could see just 1)
ND = 0.5 spots (every 10 win, a maybe the odd 9 win year they are in)

B12 = 1 (nine times a decade, once time they get 2 in, one time none)
AAC = 0.6 (six times a decade)
MWC = 0.3 (three times a decade)
MAC/CUSA/SBC = 0.1 (once a decade lightening strikes)

Note: the assumption is the Big 12 takes one or two of the strongest AAC schools shifting the balance

(07-24-2021 02:02 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The CFP will almost certainly dictate a July 1st, 2023 departure for Texas and Oklahoma. The remaining Big 12 schools will not want either of them getting the automatic conference champion playoff spot.

Long run it means more competition for making the last 2 conference champion spots. The B12 will be fighting the MWC and AAC (and odd years some other conference champion).

If I had to speculate on how it breaks down it would be:

SEC = 3.5 spots (almost always 3, often 4)
B1G = 2.5 spots (always 2, often 3)
ACC = 1.75 spots (most years 2, but could see just 1)
P12 = 1.75 spots (most years 2, but could see just 1)
ND = 0.5 spots (every 10 win, a maybe the odd 9 win year they are in)

B12 = 1 (nine times a decade, once time they get 2 in, one time none)
AAC = 0.6 (seven times a decade)
MWC = 0.3 (three times a decade)
MAC/CUSA/SBC = 0.1 (one a decade lightening strikes)

Note: the assumption is the Big 12 takes one or two of the strongest AAC schools shifting the balance

I like the analysis

(07-24-2021 01:20 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Best way to "decapitate" both would be to invite Boise, Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF. But my guess is the Big 12 goes for only AAC teams, and maybe only two if they learn that they'll get the same amount of TV money whether they have 10 teams or 12.

It could hinge on whether they invite BYU and BYU accepts ... seems like the former Big8 members would like Houston, for the games in Texas, and WVU would like to expand the population of its island to 2 with UC, and that's a logroll of two if BYU says no, but if BYU says yes, that's a requirement for one more school to even things out.

Which would imply both Memphis and UCF cheering for BYU to say yes.

(07-24-2021 02:02 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The CFP will almost certainly dictate a July 1st, 2023 departure for Texas and Oklahoma. The remaining Big 12 schools will not want either of them getting the automatic conference champion playoff spot.

Long run it means more competition for making the last 2 conference champion spots. The B12 will be fighting the MWC and AAC (and odd years some other conference champion).

If I had to speculate on how it breaks down it would be:

SEC = 3.5 spots (almost always 3, often 4)
B1G = 2.5 spots (always 2, often 3)
ACC = 1.75 spots (most years 2, but could see just 1)
P12 = 1.75 spots (most years 2, but could see just 1)
ND = 0.5 spots (every 10 win, a maybe the odd 9 win year they are in)

B12 = 1 (nine times a decade, once time they get 2 in, one time none)
AAC = 0.6 (six times a decade)
MWC = 0.3 (three times a decade)
MAC/CUSA/SBC = 0.1 (once a decade lightening strikes)

Note: the assumption is the Big 12 takes one or two of the strongest AAC schools shifting the balance

Very nice analysis. Some small tweaks I would suggest
Lower PAC12 to 1.5.
Lower Big 12 to 0.9
Raise CUSA, SBC, MAC to 0.1 each.
Add BYU with 0.1.
Add other independents with 0.05.

This changes nothing and if it did it “might” move it to 16 schools to get even more SEC Schools invited. The only thing IMO being ironed out is which bowls get which games and the payout distribution between the leagues...

How does BYU get a spot? They will have to be ranked in the top 10. They have no path, nor does any other Indy not named Notre Dame.

The Pac-12 would have had 11 berths in 7 years under the old system. Slight tweaking of their CCG (Larry Scott proved incapable) would have given them a 12th. I expect that will be the ratio 12/7 which is 1.71, hence 1.75.

The ACC I actually may have inflated. They had so many years where somebody like 7-5 Duke was the #2 and nobody besides Clemson was ranked in the top dozen. If that pattern continues they may be more like 1.5. Notre dame playing last year was a great boost to the ACC profile. But now they are back to an Indy. If NoCar under Mack Brown continues to be good for the next few years they are closer to two teams. Really hard to see many ACC teams cracking the top 10 given the plethora of schools like Georgia, Florida, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan constantly battling for most of those slots. Far easier for the #2 Pac-12 school at 10-2 to get ranked that high.

As for CUSA/SBC/MAC, it's only once a decade they one of them can beat out both the MWC and AAC. Not happening.

(07-24-2021 03:44 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  How does BYU get a spot? They will have to be ranked in the top 10. They have no path, nor does any other Indy not named Notre Dame.

The Pac-12 would have had 11 berths in 7 years under the old system. Slight tweaking of their CCG (Larry Scott proved incapable) would have given them a 12th. I expect that will be the ratio 12/7 which is 1.71, hence 1.75.

The ACC I actually may have inflated. They had so many years where somebody like 7-5 Duke was the #2 and nobody besides Clemson was ranked in the top dozen. If that pattern continues they may be more like 1.5. Notre dame playing last year was a great boost to the ACC profile. But now they are back to an Indy. If NoCar under Mack Brown continues to be good for the next few years they are closer to two teams. Really hard to see many ACC teams cracking the top 10 given the plethora of schools like Georgia, Florida, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan constantly battling for most of those slots. Far easier for the #2 Pac-12 school at 10-2 to get ranked that high.

As for CUSA/SBC/MAC, it's only once a decade they one of them can beat out both the MWC and AAC. Not happening.

In the proposal, every independent has the same path to the CFP that Notre Dame has. Unlike the current version, there was no special arrangement for the Irish. They would have to be ranked in the top 6 among non-champions.