In ESPN/CFP's view, the Big 12 is expendable when all is said and done.

Outside USC and Oregon (read=Nike), so too is the Pac-12.

ACC? Maybe. Does the playoff really grind to a halt if Virginia or Boston College isn't in the mix?

It may be 5-10 years out, but where this is headed could well be a pair of semi-pro leagues that merely license the school's IP:

The Big Ten (add USC, Oregon, Notre Dame, and North Carolina)
and
The SEC (with Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson and FSU).

Everyone else is on their own.

Too much history between programs for a P2, maybe in another 50 years or so. P4 could be likely though depending on what happens to the Big 12. I just don't think the B1G and PAC-12 will finish off the Big 12. Like do we really think that OSU, Michigan, and Penn St. are dying to add Kansas? Do we really think the Cali schools and Oregon are dying to add Oklahoma St?

The most likely scenario IMO is Texas/Oklahoma leave for the SEC and the Big 12 backfills with 2-4 teams.

TV doesn't care about Stanford and Cal or North Carolina and Duke. It's about ratings.

SEC goes to 32 teams, announces a Netflix deal and break off from the FBS.

(07-22-2021 03:58 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  In ESPN/CFP's view, the Big 12 is expendable when all is said and done.

Outside USC and Oregon (read=Nike), so too is the Pac-12.

ACC? Maybe. Does the playoff really grind to a halt if Virginia or Boston College isn't in the mix?

It may be 5-10 years out, but where this is headed could well be a pair of semi-pro leagues that merely license the school's IP:

The Big Ten (add USC, Oregon, Notre Dame, and North Carolina)
and
The SEC (with Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson and FSU).

Everyone else is on their own.

Except the P2 will get of the deadweight (Vandy, Rutgers, maybe Maryland, ) to add additional power teams (UVA in the B1G and VaTech and WVU in the SEC)

(07-22-2021 05:43 PM)whittx Wrote:  Except the P2 will get of the deadweight (Vandy, Rutgers, maybe Maryland, ) to add additional power teams (UVA in the B1G and VaTech and WVU in the SEC)

This is the piece of the puzzle no one likes to talk about. If you can vote in a member, you can vote out members, too. Fraternity aside, how much is the seat taken up by Vanderbilt (or for that matter, Kentucky) worth?

We're well on our way to the P2, the SP(Semi-Power)2, and the NLP(NoLongerPower)1.

In the long run it will really hurt college football if you cut off all but 30 or so of the biggest programs. I hate soccer but the European Superleague blow up from earlier this year might serve as a cautionary tale

(07-22-2021 09:40 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 05:43 PM)whittx Wrote:  Except the P2 will get of the deadweight (Vandy, Rutgers, maybe Maryland, ) to add additional power teams (UVA in the B1G and VaTech and WVU in the SEC)

This is the piece of the puzzle no one likes to talk about. If you can vote in a member, you can vote out members, too. Fraternity aside, how much is the seat taken up by Vanderbilt (or for that matter, Kentucky) worth?

Vanderbilt has the 20th largest endowment, they could dominate if they wanted to it's just not in their mission. Academics are too strict compared to plebes like Oklahoma, etc. You guys have to stop.

P2 was a great scenario for the Big Ten but it was predicated upon getting 2 of: Texas, Oklahoma, and ND in order to maintain parity with the SEC.

Sankey outwitted Warren (not a very hard thing to do, he’s an idiot) and now I don’t think there are enough pieces on the chess board to build a Big Ten that can compete pound for pound with the SEC. The move that appears on the verge of being consummated between Texas/Oklahoma and the SEC was the the dooms day scenario for the rest of college football. If this goes through, the ACC, Pac 12, and eventually Big Ten will all become increasingly irrelevant as they can’t compete financially with the southern juggernaut.

Congratulations ESPN—you just ensured that college football will become a regional, not a national, sport.

I think we are definitely trending towards a P2. Texas and Oklahoma are likely just the first moves that could see historic realignment, which will have been driven by not just TV revenue, but NIL and brand associations as well. I can definitely see a future where the B1G, eventually, assimilates the PAC AAU programs in Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah and Washington. They can easily add Kansas as well to further a bridge to the West. Then, as the ACC GOR gets closer to completion (or if the B1G just wanted to buy them out, which will be easier to do in just a few seasons), they could look to also add Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and, under an arrangement like this, Notre Dame. That gets you to a 28-team national conference. What would the SEC look like? Well, they can add Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, NC State and Virginia Tech to get up to 21-teams. They could also add just a few more in the form of Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Texas Tech getting them up-to 24-teams.

Stronger brands. National viewership. More content. Less dead-weight. Many historical and regional rivalries restored and consolidated. Top authority over governance of college athletics.

If you cut out 60% of the country, how can they expect anyone to care? The CFP is expanding because folks are tired of an Alabama vs Clemson final every season. Dressing a pig up in a different dress don’t change the fact it’s still a pig.

ESPN is already having problems with folks cutting the cord. Cut out 60% of the audience and see what happens