1) Markets do NOT decide who gets chosen, otherwise Buffalo would be on the radar. Performance, geography, and history matter. Cincy, Houston, SMU, Memphis, and UCF fit all three of these to a certain degree. USF and Tulane fit two of them. The rest of the AAC, not so much.

2) Higher takes from Lower, regardless of how many of the Higher are left.

3) The new media and bowl agreements for the reorganized conference, in this case the Big 12, will be no where near as sweet as it is now. It will take a hit but still be better than what the AAC enjoys because it will also take a hit (see CUSA after the BE raids).

4) The NB12 (remember the NBE!) will not be recognized as a "P" conference but it will be an "A" conference soooooo that will sooth the burn a bit.

5) Those left behind will be bitter and those rescued will be thankful

6) The new NB12 teams will ask where all the exit fees and credits are at and the old B12 left behind teams will tell them that it's theirs and they can't have any.

I'm be curious when not only the UT/OU move happens but the final conference expansion consolidations occur, will the then-existing power conferences finally shed the Vandy, Wake Forest, WA St type bottom dwellers to claim all of the revenue?

(07-22-2021 02:31 PM)8BitPirate Wrote:  1) Markets do NOT decide who gets chosen, otherwise Buffalo would be on the radar. Performance, geography, and history matter. Cincy, Houston, SMU, Memphis, and UCF fit all three of these to a certain degree. USF and Tulane fit two of them. The rest of the AAC, not so much.

2) Higher takes from Lower, regardless of how many of the Higher are left.

3) The new media and bowl agreements for the reorganized conference, in this case the Big 12, will be no where near as sweet as it is now. It will take a hit but still be better than what the AAC enjoys because it will also take a hit (see CUSA after the BE raids).

4) The NB12 (remember the NBE!) will not be recognized as a "P" conference but it will be an "A" conference soooooo that will sooth the burn a bit.

5) Those left behind will be bitter and those rescued will be thankful

6) The new NB12 teams will ask where all the exit fees and credits are at and the old B12 left behind teams will tell them that it's theirs and they can't have any.

Agree and those exit fees will be used by the leftovers to help make up the hit in the media payouts they will get. The newcomers will be happy getting 10-12 mill because is better than now. The leftovers will have a few years to try to find an escape to the new A4 leagues.

That’s why I think that if all they lose is UT and OU. They will probably look to just add Houston and UC and see how it goes.
The AAC then at 9 teams can stay put and play a true round robin or try to expand by looking at MWC and BYU.

this is less like the 2013 version and more like the 2004-05 version of the big east exodus. texas and oklahoma is miami and vt leaving. then the remaining schools with value to the other power conferences will spend the rest of their time trying to leave. so let's say 4 AAC members join up after ut and ou leave, in another decade more AAC members will join to make up for those departures and the big 12 will be AAC 2.0 like how the current AAC is C-USA 2.0.

(07-22-2021 06:16 PM)Meatwad Wrote:  this is less like the 2013 version and more like the 2004-05 version of the big east exodus. texas and oklahoma is miami and vt leaving. then the remaining schools with value to the other power conferences will spend the rest of their time trying to leave. so let's say 4 AAC members join up after ut and ou leave, in another decade more AAC members will join to make up for those departures and the big 12 will be AAC 2.0 like how the current AAC is C-USA 2.0.

Most likely scenario

(07-22-2021 06:16 PM)Meatwad Wrote:  this is less like the 2013 version and more like the 2004-05 version of the big east exodus. texas and oklahoma is miami and vt leaving. then the remaining schools with value to the other power conferences will spend the rest of their time trying to leave. so let's say 4 AAC members join up after ut and ou leave, in another decade more AAC members will join to make up for those departures and the big 12 will be AAC 2.0 like how the current AAC is C-USA 2.0.

Cincinnati was in CUSA for 9 years
They were in the Big East for 9 years.
This fall marks the 8th season in the AAC.

History has a way of repeating itself.

(07-22-2021 06:28 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 06:16 PM)Meatwad Wrote:  this is less like the 2013 version and more like the 2004-05 version of the big east exodus. texas and oklahoma is miami and vt leaving. then the remaining schools with value to the other power conferences will spend the rest of their time trying to leave. so let's say 4 AAC members join up after ut and ou leave, in another decade more AAC members will join to make up for those departures and the big 12 will be AAC 2.0 like how the current AAC is C-USA 2.0.

Cincinnati was in CUSA for 9 years
They were in the Big East for 9 years.
This fall marks the 8th season in the AAC.

History has a way of repeating itself.

Wow that’s actually pretty crazy because the reports are saying UT and OU are leaving after the 2022 season, which means Cincy will have spent 9 years in the AAC too

(07-22-2021 06:50 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 06:28 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 06:16 PM)Meatwad Wrote:  this is less like the 2013 version and more like the 2004-05 version of the big east exodus. texas and oklahoma is miami and vt leaving. then the remaining schools with value to the other power conferences will spend the rest of their time trying to leave. so let's say 4 AAC members join up after ut and ou leave, in another decade more AAC members will join to make up for those departures and the big 12 will be AAC 2.0 like how the current AAC is C-USA 2.0.

Cincinnati was in CUSA for 9 years
They were in the Big East for 9 years.
This fall marks the 8th season in the AAC.

History has a way of repeating itself.

Wow that’s actually pretty crazy because the reports are saying UT and OU are leaving after the 2022 season, which means Cincy will have spent 9 years in the AAC too

We’ve always been conference nomads. A school in the Midwest whose athletics are go big for the MAC but not big enough the B10.

(07-22-2021 02:31 PM)8BitPirate Wrote:  1) Markets do NOT decide who gets chosen, otherwise Buffalo would be on the radar. Performance, geography, and history matter. Cincy, Houston, SMU, Memphis, and UCF fit all three of these to a certain degree. USF and Tulane fit two of them. The rest of the AAC, not so much.

2) Higher takes from Lower, regardless of how many of the Higher are left.

3) The new media and bowl agreements for the reorganized conference, in this case the Big 12, will be no where near as sweet as it is now. It will take a hit but still be better than what the AAC enjoys because it will also take a hit (see CUSA after the BE raids).

4) The NB12 (remember the NBE!) will not be recognized as a "P" conference but it will be an "A" conference soooooo that will sooth the burn a bit.

5) Those left behind will be bitter and those rescued will be thankful

6) The new NB12 teams will ask where all the exit fees and credits are at and the old B12 left behind teams will tell them that it's theirs and they can't have any.

if UT and OU leave, the B1G, ACC, and PAC conferences will be busy adding teams from the remaining Big12. The AAC needs to jump into that fray as well to grab teams that raise our profile.
The Big12 would be skin and bones after all the conference raiding.

Lies

(07-22-2021 02:31 PM)8BitPirate Wrote:  1) Markets do NOT decide who gets chosen, otherwise Buffalo would be on the radar. Performance, geography, and history matter. Cincy, Houston, SMU, Memphis, and UCF fit all three of these to a certain degree. USF and Tulane fit two of them. The rest of the AAC, not so much.

Except in the case of Rutgers to the B!G. Performance and history had nothing to do with it.