(07-22-2021 07:58 AM)Poseidon Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 07:51 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  

Wrong. The AAC will do the poaching from the Big 12 leftovers.

That could happen, but it would be the first time ever. Schools move up not down. The B12 name has value. The B12 could move fairly quickly on 2 or 4 schools which pretty much locks in their survival, even if the B10 or others decide to move as well. In any case the B12 will lose a lot of tv revenue, but still likely to be above the AAC.

(07-22-2021 10:48 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 07:58 AM)Poseidon Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 07:51 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  

Wrong. The AAC will do the poaching from the Big 12 leftovers.

That could happen, but it would be the first time ever. Schools move up not down. The B12 name has value. The B12 could move fairly quickly on 2 or 4 schools which pretty much locks in their survival, even if the B10 or others decide to move as well. In any case the B12 will lose a lot of tv revenue, but still likely to be above the AAC.

Only way I see AAC poaching Big12 is if enough Big12 members leave and they disband the conference.

(07-22-2021 10:20 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  Interesting read from a Baylor writer

https://www.ourdailybears.com/2021/7/21/...ars-sic-em

A majority of the conference can vote to settle litigation. Bylaw 1.5.2(a)(6). Dissolution requires 75% (8 votes). See 1.5.2(b). That means six Big 12 schools (a majority) could leave the conference, sue, say “We owe nothing and the league is dissolved.” Then those six members could say, “We agree with the lawsuit filed by those six, and therefore, we concede the lawsuit.” So really I think you’re looking at six votes being sufficient to stop the Grant of Rights payments, not eight.

This mean no exit fees or credits left behind?

(07-22-2021 07:58 AM)Poseidon Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 07:51 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:   to the MWC. They played some Chinese Long Game 4D Chess on this one. So Texas and OU and possibly other schools leave the B12. Where does the B12 turn to for back fills? The P6. MW saw this coming years ago and to protect against getting poached, slowly "fell behind" the AAC to the point none of the schools are in danger and their conference is safe. Well played MW, well played indeed.

Wrong. The AAC will do the poaching from the Big 12 leftovers. As soon as Kansas and maybe one other go to the Big Ten the Big 12 will only have 7 or 8 schools without the anchors of Texas and Oklahoma WVU will go running asap. Why would they stay if the money goes down, which it will. Maybe the PAC 12 adds TTU or OSU? There won't be anything left to have a Big 12. The rest will go to the AAC and bump our TV a little.

(07-22-2021 10:49 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 10:48 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 07:58 AM)Poseidon Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 07:51 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  

Wrong. The AAC will do the poaching from the Big 12 leftovers.

That could happen, but it would be the first time ever. Schools move up not down. The B12 name has value. The B12 could move fairly quickly on 2 or 4 schools which pretty much locks in their survival, even if the B10 or others decide to move as well. In any case the B12 will lose a lot of tv revenue, but still likely to be above the AAC.

Only way I see AAC poaching Big12 is if enough Big12 members leave and they disband the conference.

And give up all the exit fees? As others have said, that's not happening.

(07-22-2021 10:38 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 10:17 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 07:58 AM)Poseidon Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 07:51 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:   to the MWC. They played some Chinese Long Game 4D Chess on this one. So Texas and OU and possibly other schools leave the B12. Where does the B12 turn to for back fills? The P6. MW saw this coming years ago and to protect against getting poached, slowly "fell behind" the AAC to the point none of the schools are in danger and their conference is safe. Well played MW, well played indeed.

Wrong. The AAC will do the poaching from the Big 12 leftovers. As soon as Kansas and maybe one other go to the Big Ten the Big 12 will only have 7 or 8 schools without the anchors of Texas and Oklahoma WVU will go running asap. Why would they stay if the money goes down, which it will. Maybe the PAC 12 adds TTU or OSU? There won't be anything left to have a Big 12. The rest will go to the AAC and bump our TV a little.

lol...noooo. The Big 12 will poach. Even if the final idea is a full merger of the remains of the BIg-12+AAC----you'd still do it under the Big-12 shell because there would be 250-350 million in exit fees along with a crap load of NCAA credits (plus as a bonus, by ending the AAC, the AAC teams would get to keep all their own NCAA credits). Furthermore, I'd rather start from the Big-12 deal and go down than start from the AAC deal and try to work up---not to mention, the Big-12 deal expires in a couple of years meaning we could take the whole thing to open market faster.

I dont expect a full merger. More likely, the Big-12 will cherry pick the MW and AAC to create a best of rest type conference with the remains of the Big-12 as its core.

This is correct.

I've said this many times: sh*t ALWAYS runs downhill in conference realignment.

Even if the Big 12 is down the 3 or 4 schools left, they still have all of the advantages that you've noted to being the poaching league just as the old Big East was down to 3 football schools and still had all of the poaching power, too.

In a weird way, the relative weakness and/or lack of fit of the other Big 12 schools with other P5 leagues for conference realignment purposes means that they're less likely to completely blow apart beyond maybe losing Kansas (which is definitely bad revenue-wise and prestige, but not actually bad from a pure football strength perspective). The Pac-12 really has no interest at all in Texas Tech/Oklahoma State while the Big Ten and ACC would only be conceivably be interested in Kansas (and even if they're interested, it's a tough sell to *only* add them).

The Big 12 can certainly backfill and they'll probably be looked at as the equivalent of the post-Miami old Big East football conference - no marquee national brand names but very good on-the-field and still better brands than a non-power conference.

I think this is the scenario. Look for BYU and up to 3 teams from AAC to back fill the Big 12.

I think the OP is giving too much undue credit to the MWC. The MWC is limited by geography. The AAC had far more flexibility and built a better league and part of that was because BYU wouldn’t play ball with the MWC, despite being at the center of the footprint.

It won’t matter that the AAC is going to get raided or that the MWC keeps all 12 of their schools—the dividing line has moved and the depleted Big 12 will be the “Next Best” outside of the elites.

(07-22-2021 10:28 AM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 10:17 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 07:58 AM)Poseidon Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 07:51 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:   to the MWC. They played some Chinese Long Game 4D Chess on this one. So Texas and OU and possibly other schools leave the B12. Where does the B12 turn to for back fills? The P6. MW saw this coming years ago and to protect against getting poached, slowly "fell behind" the AAC to the point none of the schools are in danger and their conference is safe. Well played MW, well played indeed.

Wrong. The AAC will do the poaching from the Big 12 leftovers. As soon as Kansas and maybe one other go to the Big Ten the Big 12 will only have 7 or 8 schools without the anchors of Texas and Oklahoma WVU will go running asap. Why would they stay if the money goes down, which it will. Maybe the PAC 12 adds TTU or OSU? There won't be anything left to have a Big 12. The rest will go to the AAC and bump our TV a little.

lol...noooo. The Big 12 will poach. Even if the final idea is a full merger of the remains of the BIg-12+AAC----you'd still do it under the Big-12 shell because there would be 250-350 million in exit fees along with a crap load of NCAA credits (plus as a bonus, by ending the AAC, the AAC teams would get to keep all their own NCAA credits). Furthermore, I'd rather start from the Big-12 deal and go down than start from the AAC deal and try to work up---not to mention, the Big-12 deal expires in a couple of years meaning we could take the whole thing to open market faster.

I dont expect a full merger. More likely, the Big-12 will cherry pick the MW and AAC to create a best of rest type conference with the remains of the Big-12 as its core.

The fact that FOX Sports if involved in the BIG XII along with ESPN is what folks should think about, is it better to get $19M per team and play @ 11:00 am CT on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 with a large national audience or to get $20M per team and play @ 11:00 am CT on FOX/FS1/FS2 with a somewhat large national audience?

FOX is involved NOW. In 2 years that TV deal ends and your out on the open market. FOX being interested is actually good news. It means you have a deep pocketed competing bidder.

(07-22-2021 10:49 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 10:20 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  Interesting read from a Baylor writer

https://www.ourdailybears.com/2021/7/21/...ars-sic-em

A majority of the conference can vote to settle litigation. Bylaw 1.5.2(a)(6). Dissolution requires 75% (8 votes). See 1.5.2(b). That means six Big 12 schools (a majority) could leave the conference, sue, say “We owe nothing and the league is dissolved.” Then those six members could say, “We agree with the lawsuit filed by those six, and therefore, we concede the lawsuit.” So really I think you’re looking at six votes being sufficient to stop the Grant of Rights payments, not eight.

This mean no exit fees or credits left behind?

No. I have to find it, but basically the 99 year agreement that ties the league together states something to the effect that any member having realignment contact from another conference triggers a rule where they must inform the rest of the Big-12 membership within 24 hours of the contact. They then lose their voting rights until the contact with the other conference is terminated. Basically, exiting teams cant dissolve the conference. There is going to be a nice stash of NCAA credits and exit fees for the left behinds to work with.

(07-22-2021 12:04 PM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 10:38 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 10:17 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 07:58 AM)Poseidon Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 07:51 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:   to the MWC. They played some Chinese Long Game 4D Chess on this one. So Texas and OU and possibly other schools leave the B12. Where does the B12 turn to for back fills? The P6. MW saw this coming years ago and to protect against getting poached, slowly "fell behind" the AAC to the point none of the schools are in danger and their conference is safe. Well played MW, well played indeed.

Wrong. The AAC will do the poaching from the Big 12 leftovers. As soon as Kansas and maybe one other go to the Big Ten the Big 12 will only have 7 or 8 schools without the anchors of Texas and Oklahoma WVU will go running asap. Why would they stay if the money goes down, which it will. Maybe the PAC 12 adds TTU or OSU? There won't be anything left to have a Big 12. The rest will go to the AAC and bump our TV a little.

lol...noooo. The Big 12 will poach. Even if the final idea is a full merger of the remains of the BIg-12+AAC----you'd still do it under the Big-12 shell because there would be 250-350 million in exit fees along with a crap load of NCAA credits (plus as a bonus, by ending the AAC, the AAC teams would get to keep all their own NCAA credits). Furthermore, I'd rather start from the Big-12 deal and go down than start from the AAC deal and try to work up---not to mention, the Big-12 deal expires in a couple of years meaning we could take the whole thing to open market faster.

I dont expect a full merger. More likely, the Big-12 will cherry pick the MW and AAC to create a best of rest type conference with the remains of the Big-12 as its core.

This is correct.

I've said this many times: sh*t ALWAYS runs downhill in conference realignment.

Even if the Big 12 is down the 3 or 4 schools left, they still have all of the advantages that you've noted to being the poaching league just as the old Big East was down to 3 football schools and still had all of the poaching power, too.

In a weird way, the relative weakness and/or lack of fit of the other Big 12 schools with other P5 leagues for conference realignment purposes means that they're less likely to completely blow apart beyond maybe losing Kansas (which is definitely bad revenue-wise and prestige, but not actually bad from a pure football strength perspective). The Pac-12 really has no interest at all in Texas Tech/Oklahoma State while the Big Ten and ACC would only be conceivably be interested in Kansas (and even if they're interested, it's a tough sell to *only* add them).

The Big 12 can certainly backfill and they'll probably be looked at as the equivalent of the post-Miami old Big East football conference - no marquee national brand names but very good on-the-field and still better brands than a non-power conference.

I think this is the scenario. Look for BYU and up to 3 teams from AAC to back fill the Big 12.

I can go with this. The big elephant in the room is ESPN. Looking back there is was concern for the next TV contract https://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/2...onference/; Ominous Signs for Big 12

The Big 12 any AAC teams that would be going to ain't the Big 12 as it stands now financially. Let's play this out. If the realignment happens in time for the 2022 season, which is possible, that means that Houston(as an example) would only collect the current rate for the big 12 for 22,23,24 seasons. You also have to throw in exit fees, possible entrance at lower rate initially and then fact that losing OU and Texas may void the current rate as it stands anyway. The Auto-NY6 slots will end with the new playoff format as early as 2023. If the TV contract isn't an upgrade and there is no Auto NY6 slots what is the big reason to go. Particularly when other teams like Kansas OK state and WVU will be looking to jump ASAP.

You're right in that the "**** rolls down hill", but in after the UT/OU exit or in two years the AAC may not be down hill like you think it is.

The B12 also owns the naming rights to the B14. If Texas and OU leave, and one two more more B12 schools get poached to other conferences, like Kansas to B10. I see the top of the AAC and MWC getting raided to create a true BOR conference under the B12 or B14 name depending how many schools end up there.

The interesting thing is if the 12 team CFB playoff goes thru will they include the top 5 or 6 conference champs or just take the the top 12 teams, under the new conference structures. If they take just the top 12 the SEC could get 4 to 6 teams each year.

(07-22-2021 09:25 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  I don’t think the MWC was any brighter than the AAC. The fact is that those in that conference, AAC and BYU, where all hoping for a Big12 expansion but with OU and UT still there. Everyone was waiting for their tv rights to expire and hoping to be in that 2-4 addition that would bring them 30-40 million a year and be in a conference with UT and OU.

What you now are looking at is at best joining a Big12 with 8 schools that even with additions from AAC, MWC and BYU will probably be valued at most in 10-12 million a year. You are now looking at WV and Okie State as your big draw.

That might still be better than what we get in AAC but a far cry to what most where hoping for if they won the Big12 expansion ticket.

So depending on any further leftover bailing out and if we all remember the BE 5hey will all be trying to bail because none of them will be happy losing 2/3 of their tv money and being associated with the newcomers.

THIS^^^^

It aint going to be a classic power conference---but it would be a combination of schools thats better and probably more geographically coherent than the current AAC.

(07-22-2021 12:34 PM)Poseidon Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 12:04 PM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 10:38 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 10:17 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 07:58 AM)Poseidon Wrote:  Wrong. The AAC will do the poaching from the Big 12 leftovers. As soon as Kansas and maybe one other go to the Big Ten the Big 12 will only have 7 or 8 schools without the anchors of Texas and Oklahoma WVU will go running asap. Why would they stay if the money goes down, which it will. Maybe the PAC 12 adds TTU or OSU? There won't be anything left to have a Big 12. The rest will go to the AAC and bump our TV a little.

lol...noooo. The Big 12 will poach. Even if the final idea is a full merger of the remains of the BIg-12+AAC----you'd still do it under the Big-12 shell because there would be 250-350 million in exit fees along with a crap load of NCAA credits (plus as a bonus, by ending the AAC, the AAC teams would get to keep all their own NCAA credits). Furthermore, I'd rather start from the Big-12 deal and go down than start from the AAC deal and try to work up---not to mention, the Big-12 deal expires in a couple of years meaning we could take the whole thing to open market faster.

I dont expect a full merger. More likely, the Big-12 will cherry pick the MW and AAC to create a best of rest type conference with the remains of the Big-12 as its core.

This is correct.

I've said this many times: sh*t ALWAYS runs downhill in conference realignment.

Even if the Big 12 is down the 3 or 4 schools left, they still have all of the advantages that you've noted to being the poaching league just as the old Big East was down to 3 football schools and still had all of the poaching power, too.

In a weird way, the relative weakness and/or lack of fit of the other Big 12 schools with other P5 leagues for conference realignment purposes means that they're less likely to completely blow apart beyond maybe losing Kansas (which is definitely bad revenue-wise and prestige, but not actually bad from a pure football strength perspective). The Pac-12 really has no interest at all in Texas Tech/Oklahoma State while the Big Ten and ACC would only be conceivably be interested in Kansas (and even if they're interested, it's a tough sell to *only* add them).

The Big 12 can certainly backfill and they'll probably be looked at as the equivalent of the post-Miami old Big East football conference - no marquee national brand names but very good on-the-field and still better brands than a non-power conference.

I think this is the scenario. Look for BYU and up to 3 teams from AAC to back fill the Big 12.

I can go with this. The big elephant in the room is ESPN. Looking back there is was concern for the next TV contract https://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/2...onference/; Ominous Signs for Big 12

The Big 12 any AAC teams that would be going to ain't the Big 12 as it stands now financially. Let's play this out. If the realignment happens in time for the 2022 season, which is possible, that means that Houston(as an example) would only collect the current rate for the big 12 for 22,23,24 seasons. You also have to throw in exit fees, possible entrance at lower rate initially and then fact that losing OU and Texas may void the current rate as it stands anyway. The Auto-NY6 slots will end with the new playoff format as early as 2023. If the TV contract isn't an upgrade and there is no Auto NY6 slots what is the big reason to go. Particularly when other teams like Kansas OK state and WVU will be looking to jump ASAP.

You're right in that the "**** rolls down hill", but in after the UT/OU exit or in two years the AAC may not be down hill like you think it is.

Maybe, but the issue is that there isn't any overarching AAC working together here. It's Houston evaluating what's in it's best interest, Cincinnati and UCF doing the same, etc. Are we really arguing whether Houston is passing up an invite to a league where it's back with Baylor, TCU and Texas Tech plus add in Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Kansas? Houston is taking a chance to roll the dice with the AAC again there? I just can't imagine that's the case for them or any other AAC member.

Don't get me wrong: the Big 12's value was clearly in the hands of Texas and Oklahoma, which is what always made the league unstable. However, I think some people are going too far in the other direction when comparing the value of the remnants of the Big 12 to any G5 assets. The leftovers are still much more valuable and will have the poaching power as opposed to the other way around.

(07-22-2021 03:35 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 12:34 PM)Poseidon Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 12:04 PM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 10:38 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 10:17 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  lol...noooo. The Big 12 will poach. Even if the final idea is a full merger of the remains of the BIg-12+AAC----you'd still do it under the Big-12 shell because there would be 250-350 million in exit fees along with a crap load of NCAA credits (plus as a bonus, by ending the AAC, the AAC teams would get to keep all their own NCAA credits). Furthermore, I'd rather start from the Big-12 deal and go down than start from the AAC deal and try to work up---not to mention, the Big-12 deal expires in a couple of years meaning we could take the whole thing to open market faster.

I dont expect a full merger. More likely, the Big-12 will cherry pick the MW and AAC to create a best of rest type conference with the remains of the Big-12 as its core.

This is correct.

I've said this many times: sh*t ALWAYS runs downhill in conference realignment.

Even if the Big 12 is down the 3 or 4 schools left, they still have all of the advantages that you've noted to being the poaching league just as the old Big East was down to 3 football schools and still had all of the poaching power, too.

In a weird way, the relative weakness and/or lack of fit of the other Big 12 schools with other P5 leagues for conference realignment purposes means that they're less likely to completely blow apart beyond maybe losing Kansas (which is definitely bad revenue-wise and prestige, but not actually bad from a pure football strength perspective). The Pac-12 really has no interest at all in Texas Tech/Oklahoma State while the Big Ten and ACC would only be conceivably be interested in Kansas (and even if they're interested, it's a tough sell to *only* add them).

The Big 12 can certainly backfill and they'll probably be looked at as the equivalent of the post-Miami old Big East football conference - no marquee national brand names but very good on-the-field and still better brands than a non-power conference.

I think this is the scenario. Look for BYU and up to 3 teams from AAC to back fill the Big 12.

I can go with this. The big elephant in the room is ESPN. Looking back there is was concern for the next TV contract https://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/2...onference/; Ominous Signs for Big 12

The Big 12 any AAC teams that would be going to ain't the Big 12 as it stands now financially. Let's play this out. If the realignment happens in time for the 2022 season, which is possible, that means that Houston(as an example) would only collect the current rate for the big 12 for 22,23,24 seasons. You also have to throw in exit fees, possible entrance at lower rate initially and then fact that losing OU and Texas may void the current rate as it stands anyway. The Auto-NY6 slots will end with the new playoff format as early as 2023. If the TV contract isn't an upgrade and there is no Auto NY6 slots what is the big reason to go. Particularly when other teams like Kansas OK state and WVU will be looking to jump ASAP.

You're right in that the "**** rolls down hill", but in after the UT/OU exit or in two years the AAC may not be down hill like you think it is.

Maybe, but the issue is that there isn't any overarching AAC working together here. It's Houston evaluating what's in it's best interest, Cincinnati and UCF doing the same, etc. Are we really arguing whether Houston is passing up an invite to a league where it's back with Baylor, TCU and Texas Tech plus add in Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Kansas? Houston is taking a chance to roll the dice with the AAC again there? I just can't imagine that's the case for them or any other AAC member.

Don't get me wrong: the Big 12's value was clearly in the hands of Texas and Oklahoma, which is what always made the league unstable. However, I think some people are going too far in the other direction when comparing the value of the remnants of the Big 12 to any G5 assets. The leftovers are still much more valuable and will have the poaching power as opposed to the other way around.

Yup, that dude is smoking crack if he thinks that the AAC could destabilize the Big 12.

The Big 12 with some combination of Cincy/UCF/BYU/Houston after Texas and Oklahoma leave would still be stronger than the PAC-12 and on pretty much on par with the ACC.

(07-22-2021 03:41 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 03:35 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 12:34 PM)Poseidon Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 12:04 PM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 10:38 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  This is correct.

I've said this many times: sh*t ALWAYS runs downhill in conference realignment.

Even if the Big 12 is down the 3 or 4 schools left, they still have all of the advantages that you've noted to being the poaching league just as the old Big East was down to 3 football schools and still had all of the poaching power, too.

In a weird way, the relative weakness and/or lack of fit of the other Big 12 schools with other P5 leagues for conference realignment purposes means that they're less likely to completely blow apart beyond maybe losing Kansas (which is definitely bad revenue-wise and prestige, but not actually bad from a pure football strength perspective). The Pac-12 really has no interest at all in Texas Tech/Oklahoma State while the Big Ten and ACC would only be conceivably be interested in Kansas (and even if they're interested, it's a tough sell to *only* add them).

The Big 12 can certainly backfill and they'll probably be looked at as the equivalent of the post-Miami old Big East football conference - no marquee national brand names but very good on-the-field and still better brands than a non-power conference.

I think this is the scenario. Look for BYU and up to 3 teams from AAC to back fill the Big 12.

I can go with this. The big elephant in the room is ESPN. Looking back there is was concern for the next TV contract https://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/2...onference/; Ominous Signs for Big 12

The Big 12 any AAC teams that would be going to ain't the Big 12 as it stands now financially. Let's play this out. If the realignment happens in time for the 2022 season, which is possible, that means that Houston(as an example) would only collect the current rate for the big 12 for 22,23,24 seasons. You also have to throw in exit fees, possible entrance at lower rate initially and then fact that losing OU and Texas may void the current rate as it stands anyway. The Auto-NY6 slots will end with the new playoff format as early as 2023. If the TV contract isn't an upgrade and there is no Auto NY6 slots what is the big reason to go. Particularly when other teams like Kansas OK state and WVU will be looking to jump ASAP.

You're right in that the "**** rolls down hill", but in after the UT/OU exit or in two years the AAC may not be down hill like you think it is.

Maybe, but the issue is that there isn't any overarching AAC working together here. It's Houston evaluating what's in it's best interest, Cincinnati and UCF doing the same, etc. Are we really arguing whether Houston is passing up an invite to a league where it's back with Baylor, TCU and Texas Tech plus add in Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Kansas? Houston is taking a chance to roll the dice with the AAC again there? I just can't imagine that's the case for them or any other AAC member.

Don't get me wrong: the Big 12's value was clearly in the hands of Texas and Oklahoma, which is what always made the league unstable. However, I think some people are going too far in the other direction when comparing the value of the remnants of the Big 12 to any G5 assets. The leftovers are still much more valuable and will have the poaching power as opposed to the other way around.

Yup, that dude is smoking crack if he thinks that the AAC could destabilize the Big 12.

The Big 12 with some combination of Cincy/UCF/BYU/Houston after Texas and Oklahoma leave would still be stronger than the PAC-12 and on pretty much on par with the ACC.

Not when it comes to tv money. PAC has USC, Oregon, Washington even UCLA that will draw circles to anyone in that newB12 when it comes to media attention. The ACC with Clemson,FSU,UM and others does the same.
That newB12 will be seeing and get tv revenues a bit more than AAC but far off from the other 4. And the leftovers will be trying to bail out as soon as they can just like the BE leftovers did. They will rather be in any of those 4 other conferences than aligning themselves with teams from AAC.

So while from anybody from the AAC that new B12 will be a bit better than the current AAC. It’s far off from the current B12 and won’t be a better deal for the leftovers.

(07-22-2021 10:38 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 10:17 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 07:58 AM)Poseidon Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 07:51 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:   to the MWC. They played some Chinese Long Game 4D Chess on this one. So Texas and OU and possibly other schools leave the B12. Where does the B12 turn to for back fills? The P6. MW saw this coming years ago and to protect against getting poached, slowly "fell behind" the AAC to the point none of the schools are in danger and their conference is safe. Well played MW, well played indeed.

Wrong. The AAC will do the poaching from the Big 12 leftovers. As soon as Kansas and maybe one other go to the Big Ten the Big 12 will only have 7 or 8 schools without the anchors of Texas and Oklahoma WVU will go running asap. Why would they stay if the money goes down, which it will. Maybe the PAC 12 adds TTU or OSU? There won't be anything left to have a Big 12. The rest will go to the AAC and bump our TV a little.

lol...noooo. The Big 12 will poach. Even if the final idea is a full merger of the remains of the BIg-12+AAC----you'd still do it under the Big-12 shell because there would be 250-350 million in exit fees along with a crap load of NCAA credits (plus as a bonus, by ending the AAC, the AAC teams would get to keep all their own NCAA credits). Furthermore, I'd rather start from the Big-12 deal and go down than start from the AAC deal and try to work up---not to mention, the Big-12 deal expires in a couple of years meaning we could take the whole thing to open market faster.

I dont expect a full merger. More likely, the Big-12 will cherry pick the MW and AAC to create a best of rest type conference with the remains of the Big-12 as its core.

This is correct.

I've said this many times: sh*t ALWAYS runs downhill in conference realignment.

Even if the Big 12 is down the 3 or 4 schools left, they still have all of the advantages that you've noted to being the poaching league just as the old Big East was down to 3 football schools and still had all of the poaching power, too.

In a weird way, the relative weakness and/or lack of fit of the other Big 12 schools with other P5 leagues for conference realignment purposes means that they're less likely to completely blow apart beyond maybe losing Kansas (which is definitely bad revenue-wise and prestige, but not actually bad from a pure football strength perspective). The Pac-12 really has no interest at all in Texas Tech/Oklahoma State while the Big Ten and ACC would only be conceivably be interested in Kansas (and even if they're interested, it's a tough sell to *only* add them).

The Big 12 can certainly backfill and they'll probably be looked at as the equivalent of the post-Miami old Big East football conference - no marquee national brand names but very good on-the-field and still better brands than a non-power conference.

Only reason those programs not named UT or OU exist and continue to breath is because big (UT, OU) brothers have not yet left them. All that will change soon after UT and OU jump ship.

Kansas is the only left behind who I think can and will land on it’s feet after this fiasco blows up on all their faces. As for the others, I’m just not feeling it.