If the B12 takes its pick of UCF, Cincy, Houston, Memphis, SMU from the AAC, which schools does it backfill with?

The better question is, will Navy stay in a watered down AAC?

How about Wichita State?

I’d hope we’d be in the mix but who knows. I figure App State and UAB are possibilities.

(07-21-2021 09:44 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  The better question is, will Navy stay in a watered down AAC?

How about Wichita State?

I would have to think no, as all the quality AAC basketball brands except for maybe Temple will have left at that point, so not really a point for Wichita to stay. Not sure about Navy, but without UCF, Houston, SMU, Memphis, and Cincy, I would assume they would probably go independent.

(07-21-2021 09:44 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  The better question is, will Navy stay in a watered down AAC?

How about Wichita State?

Navy might go back to being indy, though not if that means they have no reasonable path to a spot in a 12-team playoff

Wichita probably stays because even a compromised AAC is better than any options they have (unless the B12 adds them to reinforce hoops). Big East isn't calling, A10 is too far and they're not going back to the MVC

(07-21-2021 09:48 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 09:44 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  The better question is, will Navy stay in a watered down AAC?

How about Wichita State?

Navy might go back to being indy, though not if that means they have no reasonable path to a spot in a 12-team playoff

Wichita probably stays because even a compromised AAC is better than any options they have (unless the B12 adds them to reinforce hoops). Big East isn't calling, A10 is too far and they're not going back to the MVC

MWC might be an option for Wichita. An AAC with ECU, Tulane, usf, Tulsa, and Temple left is not very appealing.

(07-21-2021 09:50 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 09:48 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 09:44 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  The better question is, will Navy stay in a watered down AAC?

How about Wichita State?

Navy might go back to being indy, though not if that means they have no reasonable path to a spot in a 12-team playoff

Wichita probably stays because even a compromised AAC is better than any options they have (unless the B12 adds them to reinforce hoops). Big East isn't calling, A10 is too far and they're not going back to the MVC

MWC might be an option for Wichita. An AAC with ECU, Tulane, usf, Tulsa, and Temple left is not very appealing.

If nothing happens to the MWC, I could see them adding Wichita State as the 12th team since Hawaill is football only.

But I doubt the MWC would be left intact. The MAC is the only conference I can see looking the same when it’s all said and done. Maybe Buffalo has bigger aspirations.

In WHAT UNIVERSE does Navy have a CFP path?!

I could see Navy getting a look from the ACC potentially. Geographically they’re a great fit, market-wise they bring back the DC area which was lost when MD left, and their football is respectable. Downside is that their other sports stink, but academically they’re elite, and they’d compliment West Virginia very well (if they got the nod). Plus I think ND would approve.

(07-21-2021 09:56 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  In WHAT UNIVERSE does Navy have a CFP path?!

None. The 12 team playoff is now essentially...
3 SEC
2 Big 10
2 Pac-12
2 ACC
1 Notre Dame
1 Big 12 (?)
1 Everyone else

(07-21-2021 09:47 PM)MUsince96 Wrote:  I’d hope we’d be in the mix but who knows. I figure App State and UAB are possibilities.

I think all three would be considered, along with maybe FAU if UCF is one of the schools lost.

The AAC could go out of business completely.

XII (Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, UCF)
MWC (Wichita St, SMU, Rice)
MAC (Temple, Marshall)
CUSA (Tulsa, Tulane)
Ind (USF, ECU, Navy)

-XII now down to 8 has space to take all 4 CFP access bowlers (UH, UC, UM, UCF) without having to decide between them.

-MWC has been looking to expand with Rice for a while and SMU would be a no brainer decision with their budget. Wichita could also join to make it a 3 bid type basketball conference.

-The MAC's TV deal is up in 2026. Marshall has expressed interest in rejoining to save on travel. If Temple would also join the MAC would be looking at a deal in the 2.5 million per school range, as good if not better than what the AAC leftovers will be able to get.

-CUSA can attract Tulsa and Tulane back since they won't be able to get a national TV deal by themselves.

-USF and ECU won't want to go back to CUSA and instead forge on as independents.

To me it makes sense to dissolve the AAC rather than rebuild it and get down to 9 conferences in FBS for the sake of having better chances at the playoff.

(07-21-2021 09:42 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  If the B12 takes its pick of UCF, Cincy, Houston, Memphis, SMU from the AAC, which schools does it backfill with?

Liberty, Coastal Carolina, UAB, Appalachian State

(07-21-2021 09:50 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 09:48 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 09:44 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  The better question is, will Navy stay in a watered down AAC?

How about Wichita State?

Navy might go back to being indy, though not if that means they have no reasonable path to a spot in a 12-team playoff

Wichita probably stays because even a compromised AAC is better than any options they have (unless the B12 adds them to reinforce hoops). Big East isn't calling, A10 is too far and they're not going back to the MVC

MWC might be an option for Wichita. An AAC with ECU, Tulane, usf, Tulsa, and Temple left is not very appealing.

It becomes both an issue with membership numbers with the AAC and a problem with geography.

If ECU, Tulane, USF, Tulsa and Temple were all in the same region it would help but they are all in different regions. They also do not have good basketball programs that would entice others to join up with.

The AAC right now is praying that it just loses 1 or 2 schools to the XII and continue on. P6 of course is DOA and the P5/G5 designation is going to retire out with the playoff. If they lose more than 2 they are going to be in really big trouble.

We don't know what else is going to happen yet. B1G/PAC/ACC might circle the XII like vultures and pick off remaining teams.

B1G (KU, ISU)
ACC (WVU, UC)
PAC (TT, OU)
XII (UH, SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, Memphis, UCF, USF)

That would leave just Temple, ECU and Navy to get placed into a conference.

(07-21-2021 09:42 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  If the B12 takes its pick of UCF, Cincy, Houston, Memphis, SMU from the AAC, which schools does it backfill with?

It really depends on who they take. My sense is the money will no longer be there after the raid to continue on as a large spread out conference if they dont have to. I could see a more consolidated footprint based around who's left and who would prefer to move on.

(07-21-2021 09:42 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  If the B12 takes its pick of UCF, Cincy, Houston, Memphis, SMU from the AAC, which schools does it backfill with?

They don't back fill if just one is taken and say BYU (or Colorado State) is the other Big 12 choice.

This could also be very prolonged, ads the little-8 may decide it's better to ride out the final four years with UT and OU on the schedule and the TV contracts not renegotiated than to press for an early release exit fee and boot them. The more Machiavellian among KU, West Virginia, Baylor and TCU backers and leaders may prefer a slow exit, as that buys time to sell their own school to another power conference. (KU is likely ringing the ACC, P12 and B1G as we speak, just to remind them they exist.) I really don't think any of the little-8 bring enough value to bother for the other power conferences. So it may not matter on that front.

If they take four years to add BYU and just one of say Cincy or UCF in 2026, then it could be a big fizzle.

You have to think in terms of valuations, whether a school added increases the payout the current members or not. When you start adding a 3rd, 4th or even more schools with lower valuations than the existing members, then all you are doing is adding mouths not money. The key thing for the little-8 will be keeping the valuations far higher than the AAC, not diluting themselves with so many AAC schools that the valuation drops to about what the AAC now gets. More is not better.

(07-21-2021 11:27 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 09:50 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 09:48 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 09:44 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  The better question is, will Navy stay in a watered down AAC?

How about Wichita State?

Navy might go back to being indy, though not if that means they have no reasonable path to a spot in a 12-team playoff

Wichita probably stays because even a compromised AAC is better than any options they have (unless the B12 adds them to reinforce hoops). Big East isn't calling, A10 is too far and they're not going back to the MVC

MWC might be an option for Wichita. An AAC with ECU, Tulane, usf, Tulsa, and Temple left is not very appealing.

It becomes both an issue with membership numbers with the AAC and a problem with geography.

If ECU, Tulane, USF, Tulsa and Temple were all in the same region it would help but they are all in different regions. They also do not have good basketball programs that would entice others to join up with.

The AAC right now is praying that it just loses 1 or 2 schools to the XII and continue on. P6 of course is DOA and the P5/G5 designation is going to retire out with the playoff. If they lose more than 2 they are going to be in really big trouble.

We don't know what else is going to happen yet. B1G/PAC/ACC might circle the XII like vultures and pick off remaining teams.

B1G (KU, ISU)
ACC (WVU, UC)
PAC (TT, OU)
XII (UH, SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, Memphis, UCF, USF)

That would leave just Temple, ECU and Navy to get placed into a conference.

Honestly, at that point those 3 could probably find lots of takers for a small custom built eastern conference. UMass, AppSt, UConn, Marshall, Liberty, ODU and they are good to go. Heck, Army might even join that.

(07-21-2021 10:47 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 09:47 PM)MUsince96 Wrote:  I’d hope we’d be in the mix but who knows. I figure App State and UAB are possibilities.

I think all three would be considered, along with maybe FAU if UCF is one of the schools lost.

ECU would prefer rejoining CUSA before sharing a conference with App.

USF would block any additional Florida schools joining.

I don't see the AAC backfilling if it loses 1-2 schools. If it loses 3+ it has to backfill but at that point the TV deal is toast.

The AAC could get itself into a slow bleed situation where the XII announces two replacements for UT/OU in two months from the AAC where they stand pat at 9 but then all of sudden wham they get hit with 4 more defections from more conference movement.

(07-21-2021 11:42 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 11:27 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 09:50 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 09:48 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 09:44 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  The better question is, will Navy stay in a watered down AAC?

How about Wichita State?

Navy might go back to being indy, though not if that means they have no reasonable path to a spot in a 12-team playoff

Wichita probably stays because even a compromised AAC is better than any options they have (unless the B12 adds them to reinforce hoops). Big East isn't calling, A10 is too far and they're not going back to the MVC

MWC might be an option for Wichita. An AAC with ECU, Tulane, usf, Tulsa, and Temple left is not very appealing.

It becomes both an issue with membership numbers with the AAC and a problem with geography.

If ECU, Tulane, USF, Tulsa and Temple were all in the same region it would help but they are all in different regions. They also do not have good basketball programs that would entice others to join up with.

The AAC right now is praying that it just loses 1 or 2 schools to the XII and continue on. P6 of course is DOA and the P5/G5 designation is going to retire out with the playoff. If they lose more than 2 they are going to be in really big trouble.

We don't know what else is going to happen yet. B1G/PAC/ACC might circle the XII like vultures and pick off remaining teams.

B1G (KU, ISU)
ACC (WVU, UC)
PAC (TT, OU)
XII (UH, SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, Memphis, UCF, USF)

That would leave just Temple, ECU and Navy to get placed into a conference.

Honestly, at that point those 3 could probably find lots of takers for a small custom built eastern conference. UMass, AppSt, UConn, Marshall, Liberty, ODU and they are good to go. Heck, Army might even join that.

For that to work you need schools that want to play together.

UConn thinks its a major independent.
Nobody wants Liberty in their conference.
ECU doesn't want to be reduced to playing in App's conference.
Navy I don't think wants to compete in a conference with some of the rag tags mentioned.

Navy, Army, UConn, ECU, USF could all commit to playing each other annually as independents.

Marshall and Temple could rejoin the MAC where they were previously.

(07-21-2021 11:52 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 11:42 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 11:27 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 09:50 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 09:48 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  Navy might go back to being indy, though not if that means they have no reasonable path to a spot in a 12-team playoff

Wichita probably stays because even a compromised AAC is better than any options they have (unless the B12 adds them to reinforce hoops). Big East isn't calling, A10 is too far and they're not going back to the MVC

MWC might be an option for Wichita. An AAC with ECU, Tulane, usf, Tulsa, and Temple left is not very appealing.

It becomes both an issue with membership numbers with the AAC and a problem with geography.

If ECU, Tulane, USF, Tulsa and Temple were all in the same region it would help but they are all in different regions. They also do not have good basketball programs that would entice others to join up with.

The AAC right now is praying that it just loses 1 or 2 schools to the XII and continue on. P6 of course is DOA and the P5/G5 designation is going to retire out with the playoff. If they lose more than 2 they are going to be in really big trouble.

We don't know what else is going to happen yet. B1G/PAC/ACC might circle the XII like vultures and pick off remaining teams.

B1G (KU, ISU)
ACC (WVU, UC)
PAC (TT, OU)
XII (UH, SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, Memphis, UCF, USF)

That would leave just Temple, ECU and Navy to get placed into a conference.

Honestly, at that point those 3 could probably find lots of takers for a small custom built eastern conference. UMass, AppSt, UConn, Marshall, Liberty, ODU and they are good to go. Heck, Army might even join that.

For that to work you need schools that want to play together.

UConn thinks its a major independent.
Nobody wants Liberty in their conference.
ECU doesn't want to be reduced to playing in App's conference.
Navy I don't think wants to compete in a conference with some of the rag tags mentioned.

Navy, Army, UConn, ECU, USF could all commit to playing each other annually as independents.

Marshall and Temple could rejoin the MAC where they were previously.

Keep in mind the premise was that those were that ECU, Temple, and Navy were all thats left. That means they dont have many choices.

Now remember, they are sitting on a treasure chest of 80 million in exit fees and a 6 years worth of NCAA credits. So, they do have plenty of reasons to figure out something. ECU has always liked the regional conference concept---so they would be just fine with AppSt, ODU, and Marshall and so on. Navy might prefer indy---but their 27 million dollar share might keep them interested. USF would like the 27 million as well.

UConn would obviously be a football only. Pick 5 more from UMass, Marshall, ODU, Georgia St, Georgia Southern, App St, FIU, FAU, Charlott, and Liberty. You dont have to pick Liberty, but they have enough money to ensure they will field quality programs. There are plenty of programs over there that would likely be interested in helping ECU, Navy, and USF use the almost blank AAC canvas to create a small relatively tight eastern conference.