If Texas and OU leave the B12 the remnants of the B12 will backfill with AAC and MWC schools and also take a run at BYU. The AAC will backfill with CUSA schools and independents like UConn FB only, UMass, Liberty, NMST, and take a run at BYU and Army again if they are available for FB only. The MWC conference will back fill with CUSA and Sunbelt teams and take a run at BYU too if available. BYU probably spurns the B-12 once it loses P5 status and politely laughs at the remnants of the AAC and MWC conference both of which drop to Sunbelt, MAC, and CUSA status when the song for musical chairs stops. Winner in this crapshoot is NMST because they find a conference once again when this is all over in one of the MWC, CUSA, or the Sunbelt.

(07-21-2021 11:06 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  The AAC could go out of business completely.

XII (Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, UCF)
MWC (Wichita St, SMU, Rice)
MAC (Temple, Marshall)
CUSA (Tulsa, Tulane)
Ind (USF, ECU, Navy)

-XII now down to 8 has space to take all 4 CFP access bowlers (UH, UC, UM, UCF) without having to decide between them.

-MWC has been looking to expand with Rice for a while and SMU would be a no brainer decision with their budget. Wichita could also join to make it a 3 bid type basketball conference.

-The MAC's TV deal is up in 2026. Marshall has expressed interest in rejoining to save on travel. If Temple would also join the MAC would be looking at a deal in the 2.5 million per school range, as good if not better than what the AAC leftovers will be able to get.

-CUSA can attract Tulsa and Tulane back since they won't be able to get a national TV deal by themselves.

-USF and ECU won't want to go back to CUSA and instead forge on as independents.

To me it makes sense to dissolve the AAC rather than rebuild it and get down to 9 conferences in FBS for the sake of having better chances at the playoff.

If the remaining PAC/XII schools merge and create a P4 that changes things quite a bit because the G5 will now have at least 2 playoff spots as the 5th and 6th rated conferences.

That takes a lot of pressure off of programs like Boise St or App St wanting to ensure they are viable for a spot in the 12 team playoff.

(07-23-2021 01:30 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  If the remaining PAC/XII schools merge and create a P4 that changes things quite a bit because the G5 will now have at least 2 playoff spots as the 5th and 6th rated conferences.

That takes a lot of pressure off of programs like Boise St or App St wanting to ensure they are viable for a spot in the 12 team playoff.

the PAC12 and Big XII merger would be super great news for the MWC and SBC

(07-23-2021 01:34 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 01:30 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  If the remaining PAC/XII schools merge and create a P4 that changes things quite a bit because the G5 will now have at least 2 playoff spots as the 5th and 6th rated conferences.

That takes a lot of pressure off of programs like Boise St or App St wanting to ensure they are viable for a spot in the 12 team playoff.

the PAC12 and Big XII merger would be super great news for the MWC and SBC

The only 2 schools I could see the Pac whatever interested in is Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. If the BIG10 snaps up Kansas that would leave the B12 with Baylor, TCU, Iowa State, KState and WVU. At that point I don't care who you add they won't have enough clout to be a Power Conference. If they were to add the right pieces they might be a true tweener conference like the AAC thinks they are now but that isn't even a guarantee.

I think there is a vulnerability list for AAC schools being left behind. It roughly goes in this order: ECU, Tulsa, Tulane, Temple, <gap>, Memphis, USF, SMU, UCF, Cincinnati, Houston.

Navy football can always go back to a solid national schedule of independence, so I'm not sure how much that would be "left behind."

Wichita State is vulnerable as well. Maybe they'll eventually be on the phone with the A-10.

Anyway, I could be wrong, but I'd place my wager that the Big 12 maintains its upper hand and it does the raiding of the AAC, not vice versa.

(07-23-2021 02:03 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  I think there is a vulnerability list for AAC schools being left behind. It roughly goes in this order: ECU, Tulsa, Tulane, Temple, <gap>, Memphis, USF, SMU, UCF, Cincinnati, Houston.

Navy football can always go back to a solid national schedule of independence, so I'm not sure how much that would be "left behind."

Wichita State is vulnerable as well. Maybe they'll eventually be on the phone with the A-10.

Anyway, I could be wrong, but I'd place my wager that the Big 12 maintains its upper hand and it does the raiding of the AAC, not vice versa.

100%. In order for the Big 12(8) to keep what value they will have left (after UT/OU leave), they will need to fill out the conference with backfills. At the end of the day, the Big 12 brand is still a stronger brand than what the AAC is; the bowl tie-ins will still be better and the TV revenue will still be higher. Just like the Big East, with Cincinnati, UConn and USF, they will look to keep the $150+ in exit fees by backloading with call-ups, and keeping those exit fees in order to support the spending in the conference when they had UT and OU.

Every Big 12 member will be making calls, but they will likely lead nowhere. The Big 12 will then evolve into the top tweener conference, and support itself by taking from the AAC/MWC.

As Frank says, realignment always rolls downhill.

(07-22-2021 07:50 PM)World Wide Swag Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 07:28 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  I remember Houston fans saying that there might be interest in the Cougars from the PAC 12 within the last few years. If not invited to the Big 12 is it at all likely that Houston gives the PAC 12 their entry into Texas?

Why wouldn’t the PAC just add Tech if they want entry into Texas? They’re a much more valuable property from a TV rights standpoint than UH.

Why is Tech more valuable?

(07-23-2021 02:10 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Every Big 12 member will be making calls, but they will likely lead nowhere. The Big 12 will then evolve into the top tweener conference, and support itself by taking from the AAC/MWC.

As Frank says, realignment always rolls downhill.

This time, the Big East is out of ESPN's firing line.

(07-23-2021 02:03 PM)HerdZoned Wrote:  The only 2 schools I could see the Pac whatever interested in is Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.

If the PAC-12 didn't take Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, how are they going to take Texas Tech and Oklahoma State?

Quote: If the BIG10 snaps up Kansas ...

The Big 10 has had multiple chances to "snap up" Kansas ... without a #15 that drives value/school up, why would they "snap up" a #16 that avoids pulling value/school down too much?

(07-23-2021 02:03 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  I think there is a vulnerability list for AAC schools being left behind. It roughly goes in this order: ECU, Tulsa, Tulane, Temple, <gap>, Memphis, USF, SMU, UCF, Cincinnati, Houston.

Navy football can always go back to a solid national schedule of independence, so I'm not sure how much that would be "left behind."

Wichita State is vulnerable as well. Maybe they'll eventually be on the phone with the A-10.

Anyway, I could be wrong, but I'd place my wager that the Big 12 maintains its upper hand and it does the raiding of the AAC, not vice versa.

Wichita State could go to the MWC - since they only have 11 basketball members.

(07-23-2021 02:03 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  I think there is a vulnerability list for AAC schools being left behind. It roughly goes in this order: ECU, Tulsa, Tulane, Temple, <gap>, Memphis, USF, SMU, UCF, Cincinnati, Houston.

Navy football can always go back to a solid national schedule of independence, so I'm not sure how much that would be "left behind."

Wichita State is vulnerable as well. Maybe they'll eventually be on the phone with the A-10.

Anyway, I could be wrong, but I'd place my wager that the Big 12 maintains its upper hand and it does the raiding of the AAC, not vice versa.

I agree with this. Navy would not be vulnerable at all. The AAC could completely collapse and it would be just fine as an independent.

Also, it is 99% likely that the rump B12 raids the AAC than vice-versa. The B12 schools would still have the CFP contracts for the next few years, and frankly are just a more valuable collection of schools.

Houston and Cincy would probably end up in the rump Big 12.

Collectively the 6-8 XII programs left over have decent value.

It sounds like the vultures (PAC, B1G, ACC) are going to circle to see who they can pick off.

Those left behind get to collect the exit fees in the short term before dissolving the conference.

I’m fairly confident that the AAC will not lose:

Temple
ECU
Tulane
SMU
Tulsa
WSU/Navy

They could lose 1-4 of:

Cincinnati
Memphis
UCF
USF
Houston

The AAC survives and rebuilds back to 10, but no larger.

ECU fans are cute, looking forward to smacking them down in a couple weeks.

(07-23-2021 02:03 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  I think there is a vulnerability list for AAC schools being left behind. It roughly goes in this order: ECU, Tulsa, Tulane, Temple, <gap>, Memphis, USF, SMU, UCF, Cincinnati, Houston.

Navy football can always go back to a solid national schedule of independence, so I'm not sure how much that would be "left behind."

Wichita State is vulnerable as well. Maybe they'll eventually be on the phone with the A-10.

Anyway, I could be wrong, but I'd place my wager that the Big 12 maintains its upper hand and it does the raiding of the AAC, not vice versa.

Depending on how the blood bath goes Tulsa could get snapped up by the MWC. Their athletics are in the gutter again but they do have academics on their side. If not Tulsa and the B12 would go west for expansion then I could see the MWC even snapping Houston and SMU up.

I never have understood the WSU move from MVC to the AAC. If WSU was unhappy with the MVC why not find a conference that was basketball centric and stable. The AAC is full of schools just looking to make the next move and that alone made them the the most unstable G5 conference there is.

(07-23-2021 02:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 02:03 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  I think there is a vulnerability list for AAC schools being left behind. It roughly goes in this order: ECU, Tulsa, Tulane, Temple, <gap>, Memphis, USF, SMU, UCF, Cincinnati, Houston.

Navy football can always go back to a solid national schedule of independence, so I'm not sure how much that would be "left behind."

Wichita State is vulnerable as well. Maybe they'll eventually be on the phone with the A-10.

Anyway, I could be wrong, but I'd place my wager that the Big 12 maintains its upper hand and it does the raiding of the AAC, not vice versa.

I agree with this. Navy would not be vulnerable at all. The AAC could completely collapse and it would be just fine as an independent.

Also, it is 99% likely that the rump B12 raids the AAC than vice-versa. The B12 schools would still have the CFP contracts for the next few years, and frankly are just a more valuable collection of schools.

Houston and Cincy would probably end up in the rump Big 12.

I don't know Quo, it sounds like the 8 remaining XII members are looking for a lifeboat.

It could seriously get to the point where West Virginia has to join the AAC.

(07-23-2021 02:24 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 02:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 02:03 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  I think there is a vulnerability list for AAC schools being left behind. It roughly goes in this order: ECU, Tulsa, Tulane, Temple, <gap>, Memphis, USF, SMU, UCF, Cincinnati, Houston.

Navy football can always go back to a solid national schedule of independence, so I'm not sure how much that would be "left behind."

Wichita State is vulnerable as well. Maybe they'll eventually be on the phone with the A-10.

Anyway, I could be wrong, but I'd place my wager that the Big 12 maintains its upper hand and it does the raiding of the AAC, not vice versa.

I agree with this. Navy would not be vulnerable at all. The AAC could completely collapse and it would be just fine as an independent.

Also, it is 99% likely that the rump B12 raids the AAC than vice-versa. The B12 schools would still have the CFP contracts for the next few years, and frankly are just a more valuable collection of schools.

Houston and Cincy would probably end up in the rump Big 12.

I don't know Quo, it sounds like the 8 remaining XII members are looking for a lifeboat.

It could seriously get to the point where West Virginia has to join the AAC.

It may well turn out this way. With all 8 looking for a home the AAC and maybe even the MWC could pick up the last 2 or 3 schools.

It seems like the less likely any form of the Big 12 is to invite your favorite school, the more likely you are to say that your conference is going to invite a Big 12 school.

(07-23-2021 02:29 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  It seems like the less likely any form of the Big 12 is to invite your favorite school, the more likely you are to say that your conference is going to invite a Big 12 school.

Lol this is accurate