bigowlsfan
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RE: New Realignment Thread
(09-17-2021 04:03 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote: (09-17-2021 03:37 PM)Buho00 Wrote: How is UAB the most desired team from CUSA? Didn't they fold recently before being brought back?
Correct, but they have won CUSA two out of the last three years in football and have been to the championship game the last three years. Their endowment is 2x any other CUSA school (exclusive of Rice of course) and their academics are on par with Cincinnati. They also sit in a college football recruiting hotbed, which every AAC school would love to play at every few years.
Birmingham is about 1/10th the recruiting hotbed that Houston is. Houston runs out incredible talent in the big 3 sports; Rice just doesn't get enough of its share?
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09-20-2021 02:07 PM |
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franklyconfused
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RE: New Realignment Thread
https://twitter.com/MattBrownEP/status/1...05191?s=19
Apparently the Air Force Academy and Colorado State are leading the way for an AAC invitation to backfill. Could be a two-step play by the American to ultimately land Boise State and SDSU. After those two rejected the AAC in preference of waiting in the MWC for a XII invitation, the MWC could be adequately weakened by the loss of the state of Colorado to change the calculation. Maybe the MWC gets desperate enough in these losses to throw us a bone, but I don't know if a MWC with New Mexico, Nevada, UNLV, Wyoming, Utah State, SJSU, and Hawai'i plus whatever C-USA or Sun Belt dregs they add with us is any more meaningful to me than where we are.
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09-20-2021 03:30 PM |
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oliveandblue
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RE: New Realignment Thread
I actually see CSU and AF targets as a very clear sign that institution strength and academics DO matter. If so, then Rice is more in play then y'all realize.
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09-20-2021 05:10 PM |
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Tomball Owl
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RE: New Realignment Thread
(09-20-2021 05:10 PM)oliveandblue Wrote: I actually see CSU and AF targets as a very clear sign that institution strength and academics DO matter. If so, then Rice is more in play then y'all realize.
Appreciate the support. I would love to see the Owls in a league with Tulane again. I just wish the Owls had done something with football to deserve consideration. I just don’t see academics being enough when all leagues are chasing the big bucks. Nobody pays to watch a history thesis. Of course, these days not many pay to watch Rice football either.
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09-20-2021 07:30 PM |
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waltgreenberg
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RE: New Realignment Thread
(09-20-2021 07:30 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote: (09-20-2021 05:10 PM)oliveandblue Wrote: I actually see CSU and AF targets as a very clear sign that institution strength and academics DO matter. If so, then Rice is more in play then y'all realize.
Appreciate the support. I would love to see the Owls in a league with Tulane again. I just wish the Owls had done something with football to deserve consideration. I just don’t see academics being enough when all leagues are chasing the big bucks. Nobody pays to watch a history thesis. Of course, these days not many pay to watch Rice football either.
No one's saying it's academics alone; rather, the attraction of the Houston market (and the better opportunity to recruit there) combined with the academics. Probably still not enough, unless combined with a significant financial commitment on our part, but it's a heck of a lot more than most other G5 schools offer.
(This post was last modified: 09-20-2021 07:35 PM by waltgreenberg.)
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09-20-2021 07:34 PM |
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HawaiiOwl
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RE: New Realignment Thread
(09-20-2021 07:34 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote: (09-20-2021 07:30 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote: (09-20-2021 05:10 PM)oliveandblue Wrote: I actually see CSU and AF targets as a very clear sign that institution strength and academics DO matter. If so, then Rice is more in play then y'all realize.
Appreciate the support. I would love to see the Owls in a league with Tulane again. I just wish the Owls had done something with football to deserve consideration. I just don’t see academics being enough when all leagues are chasing the big bucks. Nobody pays to watch a history thesis. Of course, these days not many pay to watch Rice football either.
No one's saying it's academics alone; rather, the attraction of the Houston market (and the better opportunity to recruit there) combined with the academics. Probably still not enough, unless combined with a significant financial commitment on our part, but it's a heck of a lot more than most other G5 schools offer.
I'd love to be wrong, but every time realignment talks occur , the supposed benefits of Rice academics, and being located in Houston gets bandied about. yet we are never invited to the party.
It would take ~ 200 million of support guaranteed to get us to the table. Then there is the issue of having enough boosters with big pockets to fund the image, likeness payola. Don't see any of this happening.
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09-20-2021 08:30 PM |
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elw4796
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RE: New Realignment Thread
UTSA is now getting connected to the American. I've stayed pretty quiet on realignment, mostly because I have nothing informative to add and my brain being wired in such a way that I could convince myself to hate Colorado School of Mines if we were in the same conference, but there are some serious issues if we can't beat out UTSA (even acknowledging the football and fan support advantages they have on us). Them being chosen is one of the outcomes that would seriously, seriously cause me to doubt our leadership.
This is nothing against UTSA, of course. I like their fans more than most of their conference counterparts.
(This post was last modified: 09-20-2021 08:35 PM by elw4796.)
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09-20-2021 08:34 PM |
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georgewebb
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RE: New Realignment Thread
(09-20-2021 07:30 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote: (09-20-2021 05:10 PM)oliveandblue Wrote: I actually see CSU and AF targets as a very clear sign that institution strength and academics DO matter. If so, then Rice is more in play then y'all realize.
Appreciate the support. I would love to see the Owls in a league with Tulane again. I just wish the Owls had done something with football to deserve consideration. I just don’t see academics being enough when all leagues are chasing the big bucks. Nobody pays to watch a history thesis. Of course, these days not many pay to watch Rice football either.
About 20 years ago, I actually went to watch a good friend's history thesis defense. But you're right: even I wouldn't have paid to do so.
Full circle: this summer that friend was in town visiting Rice with his HS-age son, and I was able to treat them to lunch at Cohen House. A week later I received a very thoughtful handwritten note of thanks from the son. Good people.
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09-20-2021 08:58 PM |
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Buho00
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RE: New Realignment Thread
(09-20-2021 07:34 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote: (09-20-2021 07:30 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote: (09-20-2021 05:10 PM)oliveandblue Wrote: I actually see CSU and AF targets as a very clear sign that institution strength and academics DO matter. If so, then Rice is more in play then y'all realize.
Appreciate the support. I would love to see the Owls in a league with Tulane again. I just wish the Owls had done something with football to deserve consideration. I just don’t see academics being enough when all leagues are chasing the big bucks. Nobody pays to watch a history thesis. Of course, these days not many pay to watch Rice football either.
No one's saying it's academics alone; rather, the attraction of the Houston market (and the better opportunity to recruit there) combined with the academics. Probably still not enough, unless combined with a significant financial commitment on our part, but it's a heck of a lot more than most other G5 schools offer.
All for the financial commitment, it seems like the only strategy for Rice based on current reality. Conferences that lost some of their better teams like the AAC, want to show the remaining schools and their fan bases that the replacement schools are exciting additions. Rice does not fit, especially after losing 102-7 (updated!) in last 2 games. Pay to make the commitment, would be a good investment.
If Rice were in the conversation the AAC would probably keep it quiet anyway and if a deal got done, throw in Rice in the announcement as a replacement for the UH market along with several "sexier" additions that would get mentioned first.
(This post was last modified: 09-20-2021 10:28 PM by Buho00.)
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09-20-2021 09:06 PM |
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Owl 69/70/75
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RE: New Realignment Thread
(09-20-2021 09:06 PM)Buho00 Wrote: Rice does not fit, especially after losing 84-7 in last 2 games. Pay to make the commitment, would be a good investment.
Umm, try 102-7, and 140-24 in last 3.
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09-20-2021 09:12 PM |
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Ourland
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RE: New Realignment Thread
(09-20-2021 03:30 PM)franklyconfused Wrote: https://twitter.com/MattBrownEP/status/1...05191?s=19
Apparently the Air Force Academy and Colorado State are leading the way for an AAC invitation to backfill. Could be a two-step play by the American to ultimately land Boise State and SDSU. After those two rejected the AAC in preference of waiting in the MWC for a XII invitation, the MWC could be adequately weakened by the loss of the state of Colorado to change the calculation. Maybe the MWC gets desperate enough in these losses to throw us a bone, but I don't know if a MWC with New Mexico, Nevada, UNLV, Wyoming, Utah State, SJSU, and Hawai'i plus whatever C-USA or Sun Belt dregs they add with us is any more meaningful to me than where we are.
I can't imagine any MWC schools leaving their rivalries and their geography to roll the dice with the AAC. The MWC schools do well financially for a G5 conference. The MWC is clearly the best G5 after the three schools leave the AAC. Boise, SDSU, Air Force, and CSU would all be fools to leave now.
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09-21-2021 08:11 AM |
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Texasowl
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RE: New Realignment Thread
Who is Mat Brown?
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09-21-2021 09:42 AM |
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franklyconfused
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RE: New Realignment Thread
(09-21-2021 09:42 AM)Texasowl Wrote: Who is Mat Brown?
Formerly an SB Nation writer. He's now freelance and has his own college sports subscription newsletter.
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09-21-2021 10:07 AM |
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illiniowl
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RE: New Realignment Thread
(09-20-2021 09:06 PM)Buho00 Wrote: (09-20-2021 07:34 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote: (09-20-2021 07:30 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote: (09-20-2021 05:10 PM)oliveandblue Wrote: I actually see CSU and AF targets as a very clear sign that institution strength and academics DO matter. If so, then Rice is more in play then y'all realize.
Appreciate the support. I would love to see the Owls in a league with Tulane again. I just wish the Owls had done something with football to deserve consideration. I just don’t see academics being enough when all leagues are chasing the big bucks. Nobody pays to watch a history thesis. Of course, these days not many pay to watch Rice football either.
No one's saying it's academics alone; rather, the attraction of the Houston market (and the better opportunity to recruit there) combined with the academics. Probably still not enough, unless combined with a significant financial commitment on our part, but it's a heck of a lot more than most other G5 schools offer.
All for the financial commitment, it seems like the only strategy for Rice based on current reality. Conferences that lost some of their better teams like the AAC, want to show the remaining schools and their fan bases that the replacement schools are exciting additions. Rice does not fit, especially after losing 102-7 (updated!) in last 2 games. Pay to make the commitment, would be a good investment.
If Rice were in the conversation the AAC would probably keep it quiet anyway and if a deal got done, throw in Rice in the announcement as a replacement for the UH market along with several "sexier" additions that would get mentioned first.
The structure of the coming 12-team playoff is to give auto bids to the top 6 ranked conference champions. 5 of those 6 will essentially always go to the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Pac-12 and Big XII, now that the Big XII has severely weakened the AAC, which temporarily could have been a frequent and serious competitor for that 5th spot with a Big XII no longer featuring UT & OU.
So now what is mainly driving downstream G5 realignment is trying to position your conference to get that extremely lucrative 6th conference-champion spot as often as possible. It's no longer so much about media markets; because almost no school in the G5 actually delivers any significant media following -- either because they are eclipsed by multiple much more prominent nearby programs (UAB, Rice, SDSU, FAU/FIU, ECU, etc.) or because they are in tiny markets to start with (Wyo., Marshall, Hawaii, Fresno, etc.) -- the media deals for the G5 conferences aren't going to be very different from each other going forward. The extra money to be chased, then, is in that 6th playoff spot.
Accordingly, your conference needs to be composed of as many strong programs as possible. You want to be in a position where even if your conference champ is 11-2 or 12-1, the committee is going to see that as more worthy of playoff inclusion than some other conference's 12-1 or 13-0.
So now the beauty contest is all about financial commitment to build as strong a program as possible. Any school not willing to do that will not be in the conversation from the get go. Academics, location for recruiting, etc., will come into play only as tiebreakers amongst similarly financially committed schools.
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09-21-2021 12:01 PM |
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Ourland
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RE: New Realignment Thread
The lack of investment by Rice over the last twenty five years tells me that, in the end, it really doesn't care about conference affiliation. Don't get me wrong, I think Rice would love to be in a strong MWC or AAC, but it will never be willing to spend all the money necessary to earn that. As long as it isn't willing to spend money, it will continue to sink further to the bottom of FBS. Soon we'll be competing against mostly Sunbelt and CUSA leftovers, and I don't think it bothers David Leebron and the BOT one bit.
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09-21-2021 12:30 PM |
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mustangxc
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RE: New Realignment Thread
Rice needs to invest in their basketball and football coaches and start handing out competitive NIL deals. I'll puke if the AAC adds any Texas schools other than Rice. Frankly seeing you in CUSA with UNT and UTSA is pretty depressing. Get it together so SMU can share a conference with at least one SWC school.
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09-21-2021 01:22 PM |
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GoodOwl
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RE: New Realignment Thread
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09-21-2021 01:30 PM |
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ausowl
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RE: New Realignment Thread
(09-21-2021 12:01 PM)illiniowl Wrote: (09-20-2021 09:06 PM)Buho00 Wrote: (09-20-2021 07:34 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote: (09-20-2021 07:30 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote: (09-20-2021 05:10 PM)oliveandblue Wrote: I actually see CSU and AF targets as a very clear sign that institution strength and academics DO matter. If so, then Rice is more in play then y'all realize.
Appreciate the support. I would love to see the Owls in a league with Tulane again. I just wish the Owls had done something with football to deserve consideration. I just don’t see academics being enough when all leagues are chasing the big bucks. Nobody pays to watch a history thesis. Of course, these days not many pay to watch Rice football either.
No one's saying it's academics alone; rather, the attraction of the Houston market (and the better opportunity to recruit there) combined with the academics. Probably still not enough, unless combined with a significant financial commitment on our part, but it's a heck of a lot more than most other G5 schools offer.
All for the financial commitment, it seems like the only strategy for Rice based on current reality. Conferences that lost some of their better teams like the AAC, want to show the remaining schools and their fan bases that the replacement schools are exciting additions. Rice does not fit, especially after losing 102-7 (updated!) in last 2 games. Pay to make the commitment, would be a good investment.
If Rice were in the conversation the AAC would probably keep it quiet anyway and if a deal got done, throw in Rice in the announcement as a replacement for the UH market along with several "sexier" additions that would get mentioned first.
The structure of the coming 12-team playoff is to give auto bids to the top 6 ranked conference champions. 5 of those 6 will essentially always go to the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Pac-12 and Big XII, now that the Big XII has severely weakened the AAC, which temporarily could have been a frequent and serious competitor for that 5th spot with a Big XII no longer featuring UT & OU.
So now what is mainly driving downstream G5 realignment is trying to position your conference to get that extremely lucrative 6th conference-champion spot as often as possible. It's no longer so much about media markets; because almost no school in the G5 actually delivers any significant media following -- either because they are eclipsed by multiple much more prominent nearby programs (UAB, Rice, SDSU, FAU/FIU, ECU, etc.) or because they are in tiny markets to start with (Wyo., Marshall, Hawaii, Fresno, etc.) -- the media deals for the G5 conferences aren't going to be very different from each other going forward. The extra money to be chased, then, is in that 6th playoff spot.
Accordingly, your conference needs to be composed of as many strong programs as possible. You want to be in a position where even if your conference champ is 11-2 or 12-1, the committee is going to see that as more worthy of playoff inclusion than some other conference's 12-1 or 13-0.
So now the beauty contest is all about financial commitment to build as strong a program as possible. Any school not willing to do that will not be in the conversation from the get go. Academics, location for recruiting, etc., will come into play only as tiebreakers amongst similarly financially committed schools.
Interesting analysis.
UTSA might check some of those boxes if the alumni base and, probably more importantly, the SA business community makes that financial commitment.
I'm turning into a UTSA booster.
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09-21-2021 03:04 PM |
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GoodOwl
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RE: New Realignment Thread
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09-22-2021 09:59 AM |
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Tomball Owl
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RE: New Realignment Thread
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09-22-2021 10:02 AM |
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