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What will happen to the Big 12?
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esayem Offline
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Post: #261
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-27-2021 09:58 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(07-26-2021 10:37 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(07-26-2021 09:53 AM)esayem Wrote:  I don’t disagree, but Colorado is a pretty fast growing state and has a lot of upside. UCF is a mega school pumping out towns of people each year. If it is UCF, then look for OK State to move to the West division.

I have my doubts about UCF coming alone, but I'd also have doubts about CSU. I think Memphis would be ahead. What are the differences between the two? Is it closer than I thought? Memphis vs Denver, academics, athletic performance. I don't know, tough to sell me CSU over Memphis.

And I don't see BYU as all sports because of the Sunday factor. Opens the door for a Wichita State.
Colorado St. is well ahead academically. Colorado is also a destination for a lot of old Big 8 school grads.

Athleticaly, Memphis has the edge.

If they add BYU, that makes CSU a nice bridge.

I think the Big XII is safer by moving west. The East is a battleground right now.
07-27-2021 11:33 AM
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Post: #262
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-26-2021 10:23 AM)PistolChad Wrote:  The Big 12 WILL absolutely live on unless this happens:

1. 6 of the 8 remaining schools vote to disband. The only way this would happen is if 6 of the 8 remaining schools get invitations to the PAC, B1G, SEC, or ACC. If 6 schools can get an invitation, then that gives the Big 12 80% of the schools (including OU and Texas) that will vote in their own best interests to disband the conference. This IS the scenario that Texas and OU are hoping for because then there is no cost to them (and the rest of the Big 12) for disbanding.

2. The Big 12 can merge with the PAC or ACC (no chance with B1G and SEC). Why this might be more attractive than you think? The Grant of Rights with OU and Texas until 2025. Believe me - the lawyers will ENSURE that that asset is owned by the merged conference and that is potentially worth up to $200M. Even OU and Texas and the SEC won't be willing to pay it to get OU and Texas in the SEC by 2022. How many schools would it take to complete a full merger? 8 of the 10. If the remaining 8 are for it, there is nothing Texas and OU can do about it.

If 6 of the remaining 8 schools cannot find a P4 conference to join AND if the PAC and ACC decline to do a full merger, then the Big 12 has 2 very real options.

1. Expand - what all of you enjoy talking about.
2. Stay at 8 - don't put it past the conference to do this. The Big 12 does still own the rights to both the "SouthWest Conference" and the "Big 8 Conference" (as well as "Big 6", "Big 7", "Big 14", "Big 16" BTW). Don't be completely surprised if they choose to dust off the old "Big 8" and copyrights and logos and just forge forward that way. Remember, Iowa State, Kansas State, Kansas, and Oklahoma State are from the original Big 8. The minimum number of schools for a conference is still only 6 schools. There has been NCAA debates about moving it up to 8, but that actually has never happened. There is NO WAY the NCAA votes to make the minimum 10 schools.

The Big 12 already evaluated all G5 schools and none were found to be worth inviting for expansion. What has changed that in those evaluations are 2 things:
1. Texas was against any other Texas schools from joining. That obviously isn't a factor anymore so who does that benefit? Houston. THE BIGGEST REASON Houston was never going to get an invitation was because the Big 12 already had FOUR schools in Texas including the flagship school - The University of Texas. With UT gone, Houston's attractiveness goes up - A LOT. Houston is a major market (and one that was hurt with A&M leaving the Big 12). Houston is a large public school - and yes that makes them more attractive. Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor together are not terribly attractive Texas-wide - ESPECIALLY in East Texas. Texas leaving the Big 12 was Houston's only chance of getting an invitation - now it has happened.
2. Texas wanted to be the only "Big Dog" in the Big 12. OU always fell in line with what Texas wanted to do and weren't a problem. What school could the Big 12 have possibly invited who would have bucked Texas to try to assert control that Texas DID NOT WANT the headache? BYU. BYU is notoriously difficult to deal with. (Ask the WAC - BYU was a driver to create the MWC. Ask the MWC - when BYU didn't get their way they went independent). Now BYU realizes they are NOT the "Notre Dame of the West" and Independence is a tough business. No other major conference will touch BYU with a 10 foot pole. The Big 12 now actually could believe BYU is worth the headache.

So there it is, I think the 4 most realistic options for the Big 12 are:
1. 6 of 8 schools find a new home and the Big 12 votes to disband. (Medium chance IMO)
2. Big 12 fully merges with the PAC or ACC. (Low chance IMO)
3. Big 12 goes forward with 8 members - i.e. Big 8 (High chance IMO)
4. Big 12 invites Houston and BYU (Best chance IMO)

You bring up an interesting question regarding BYU. If the Big12 truly perceive them as a difficult headache to work with—-do they really want to jump back in bed with another Texas—-especially one that won’t yield Texas size dollars? I wouldn’t be surprised if those schools avoid anyone with that perception. The AAC schools might be seen by B12 administrators as underdogs who know how to work together to build a conference. It may be of no importance—-but the amount of surprise and hurt expressed by some B12 school administrators leads me to think that kind of psychology could actually have some role in their decision making.
(This post was last modified: 07-27-2021 12:17 PM by Attackcoog.)
07-27-2021 12:14 PM
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Post: #263
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-27-2021 12:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(07-26-2021 10:23 AM)PistolChad Wrote:  The Big 12 WILL absolutely live on unless this happens:

1. 6 of the 8 remaining schools vote to disband. The only way this would happen is if 6 of the 8 remaining schools get invitations to the PAC, B1G, SEC, or ACC. If 6 schools can get an invitation, then that gives the Big 12 80% of the schools (including OU and Texas) that will vote in their own best interests to disband the conference. This IS the scenario that Texas and OU are hoping for because then there is no cost to them (and the rest of the Big 12) for disbanding.

2. The Big 12 can merge with the PAC or ACC (no chance with B1G and SEC). Why this might be more attractive than you think? The Grant of Rights with OU and Texas until 2025. Believe me - the lawyers will ENSURE that that asset is owned by the merged conference and that is potentially worth up to $200M. Even OU and Texas and the SEC won't be willing to pay it to get OU and Texas in the SEC by 2022. How many schools would it take to complete a full merger? 8 of the 10. If the remaining 8 are for it, there is nothing Texas and OU can do about it.

If 6 of the remaining 8 schools cannot find a P4 conference to join AND if the PAC and ACC decline to do a full merger, then the Big 12 has 2 very real options.

1. Expand - what all of you enjoy talking about.
2. Stay at 8 - don't put it past the conference to do this. The Big 12 does still own the rights to both the "SouthWest Conference" and the "Big 8 Conference" (as well as "Big 6", "Big 7", "Big 14", "Big 16" BTW). Don't be completely surprised if they choose to dust off the old "Big 8" and copyrights and logos and just forge forward that way. Remember, Iowa State, Kansas State, Kansas, and Oklahoma State are from the original Big 8. The minimum number of schools for a conference is still only 6 schools. There has been NCAA debates about moving it up to 8, but that actually has never happened. There is NO WAY the NCAA votes to make the minimum 10 schools.

The Big 12 already evaluated all G5 schools and none were found to be worth inviting for expansion. What has changed that in those evaluations are 2 things:
1. Texas was against any other Texas schools from joining. That obviously isn't a factor anymore so who does that benefit? Houston. THE BIGGEST REASON Houston was never going to get an invitation was because the Big 12 already had FOUR schools in Texas including the flagship school - The University of Texas. With UT gone, Houston's attractiveness goes up - A LOT. Houston is a major market (and one that was hurt with A&M leaving the Big 12). Houston is a large public school - and yes that makes them more attractive. Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor together are not terribly attractive Texas-wide - ESPECIALLY in East Texas. Texas leaving the Big 12 was Houston's only chance of getting an invitation - now it has happened.
2. Texas wanted to be the only "Big Dog" in the Big 12. OU always fell in line with what Texas wanted to do and weren't a problem. What school could the Big 12 have possibly invited who would have bucked Texas to try to assert control that Texas DID NOT WANT the headache? BYU. BYU is notoriously difficult to deal with. (Ask the WAC - BYU was a driver to create the MWC. Ask the MWC - when BYU didn't get their way they went independent). Now BYU realizes they are NOT the "Notre Dame of the West" and Independence is a tough business. No other major conference will touch BYU with a 10 foot pole. The Big 12 now actually could believe BYU is worth the headache.

So there it is, I think the 4 most realistic options for the Big 12 are:
1. 6 of 8 schools find a new home and the Big 12 votes to disband. (Medium chance IMO)
2. Big 12 fully merges with the PAC or ACC. (Low chance IMO)
3. Big 12 goes forward with 8 members - i.e. Big 8 (High chance IMO)
4. Big 12 invites Houston and BYU (Best chance IMO)

You bring up an interesting question regarding BYU. If the Big12 truly perceive them as a difficult headache to work with—-do they really want to jump back in bed with another Texas—-especially one that won’t yield Texas size dollars? I wouldn’t be surprised if those schools avoid anyone with that perception. The AAC schools might be seen by B12 administrators as underdogs who know how to work together to build a conference. It may be of no importance—-but the amount of surprise and hurt expressed by some B12 school administrators leads me to think that kind of psychology could actually have some role in their decision making.

I think BYU’s prima Donna past was permitted because they had political clout and influence over their WAC and later MWC conference mates. BYU doesn’t have anyone they can brow beat into submission in the Big 12. I think they’d be grateful for the call up and behave more cordially in the Big 12.
07-27-2021 12:25 PM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #264
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
https://247sports.com/Article/College-fo...168328395/

“And the conferences, in turn, sold that to our media partners. In the Big 12, the grant of rights is through 2025. That means that not any of the 10 institutions can go become a member of another conference without, one, leaving their media rights behind and, No. 2, paying a penalty. That is why I’m so encouraged by the fact the Big 12 is led by commissioner Bob Bowlsby. As we learned, Oklahoma and Texas intend to honor their grant of rights through 2025. If that remains the case, we know for the next four years the Big 12 is going to stay viable, the Big 12 is going to continue to win national championships and be competitive in NCAA championships and all 10 members are going to continue to receive their full media shares. That allows us the opportunity to spend the next four years evaluating the landscape and understanding what is changing or what isn’t changing in college athletics. I know that that gives us the best possible opportunity to position Iowa State University for what comes next.”

He sure seems sure that UT and OU are staying around until 2025.
07-27-2021 12:26 PM
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Post: #265
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-27-2021 12:26 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  https://247sports.com/Article/College-fo...168328395/

“And the conferences, in turn, sold that to our media partners. In the Big 12, the grant of rights is through 2025. That means that not any of the 10 institutions can go become a member of another conference without, one, leaving their media rights behind and, No. 2, paying a penalty. That is why I’m so encouraged by the fact the Big 12 is led by commissioner Bob Bowlsby. As we learned, Oklahoma and Texas intend to honor their grant of rights through 2025. If that remains the case, we know for the next four years the Big 12 is going to stay viable, the Big 12 is going to continue to win national championships and be competitive in NCAA championships and all 10 members are going to continue to receive their full media shares. That allows us the opportunity to spend the next four years evaluating the landscape and understanding what is changing or what isn’t changing in college athletics. I know that that gives us the best possible opportunity to position Iowa State University for what comes next.”

He sure seems sure that UT and OU are staying around until 2025.

Just putting on a positive face and keeping people from panicking.
07-27-2021 01:11 PM
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Post: #266
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-27-2021 12:26 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  https://247sports.com/Article/College-fo...168328395/

“And the conferences, in turn, sold that to our media partners. In the Big 12, the grant of rights is through 2025. That means that not any of the 10 institutions can go become a member of another conference without, one, leaving their media rights behind and, No. 2, paying a penalty. That is why I’m so encouraged by the fact the Big 12 is led by commissioner Bob Bowlsby. As we learned, Oklahoma and Texas intend to honor their grant of rights through 2025. If that remains the case, we know for the next four years the Big 12 is going to stay viable, the Big 12 is going to continue to win national championships and be competitive in NCAA championships and all 10 members are going to continue to receive their full media shares. That allows us the opportunity to spend the next four years evaluating the landscape and understanding what is changing or what isn’t changing in college athletics. I know that that gives us the best possible opportunity to position Iowa State University for what comes next.”

He sure seems sure that UT and OU are staying around until 2025.

His first mistake is being encouraged by Bowlsby's leadership.
07-27-2021 04:06 PM
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Post: #267
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
TCU writer suggests that its toast.

https://www.frogsowar.com/2021/7/23/2259...-might-not

"...Whether they will wait until the Grant of Rights expires in 2025 or negotiate a deal that lessens the $70+ million penalty for leaving early remains to be seen, but as rumors of ADs seeking out back channels with other conferences leaks fast and furious, it seems the end of the Big 12 is nigh, something that would allow Texas and OU to sneak out quietly in the middle of the night with few penalties.

The Big 12 is effectively over, folks — this isn’t doom and gloom, this is happening.

As TCU fans, our immediate thought goes to what happens next. This tends to fall into three categories:

OH S&!T
TCU is an attractive brand name that will have other suitors
Been there, done that. We’ve navigated conference realignment many times and will be fine.
I am firmly in category one, but y’all know that.

247 Sports insider Jeremy Clark reported last night that TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech have already reached out to the Pac 12 to gauge interest. This makes the most sense for those four teams; those calling for the ACC and Big Ten, I am sorry — it’s not happening, and that’s not just me opining, it’s the feeling of every single person that “knows things” that I’ve spoken with. The Big Ten is engaging with Iowa State and Kansas, two schools that fit their wider profile as AAU/research-heavy schools. If anything, the ACC *might* talk to the Mountaineers, but that train has left the station many a time before without West Virginia on it, so folks in Morgantown are rightfully having flashbacks to the days of the Big East...."
07-27-2021 08:42 PM
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Post: #268
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
Students will definitely protest against BYU’s inclusion. Admittedly you have to think like a university president and not a fan when it comes to realignment, but even if they are focused on revenue and such, none of them want unrest on their campuses if it can be avoided.
07-27-2021 08:55 PM
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Post: #269
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-27-2021 08:42 PM)bullet Wrote:  TCU writer suggests that its toast.

https://www.frogsowar.com/2021/7/23/2259...-might-not

"...Whether they will wait until the Grant of Rights expires in 2025 or negotiate a deal that lessens the $70+ million penalty for leaving early remains to be seen, but as rumors of ADs seeking out back channels with other conferences leaks fast and furious, it seems the end of the Big 12 is nigh, something that would allow Texas and OU to sneak out quietly in the middle of the night with few penalties.

The Big 12 is effectively over, folks — this isn’t doom and gloom, this is happening.

As TCU fans, our immediate thought goes to what happens next. This tends to fall into three categories:

OH S&!T
TCU is an attractive brand name that will have other suitors
Been there, done that. We’ve navigated conference realignment many times and will be fine.
I am firmly in category one, but y’all know that.

247 Sports insider Jeremy Clark reported last night that TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech have already reached out to the Pac 12 to gauge interest. This makes the most sense for those four teams; those calling for the ACC and Big Ten, I am sorry — it’s not happening, and that’s not just me opining, it’s the feeling of every single person that “knows things” that I’ve spoken with. The Big Ten is engaging with Iowa State and Kansas, two schools that fit their wider profile as AAU/research-heavy schools. If anything, the ACC *might* talk to the Mountaineers, but that train has left the station many a time before without West Virginia on it, so folks in Morgantown are rightfully having flashbacks to the days of the Big East...."

Denial isnt just a river in Egypt.

I do wonder why the leftover Big XII programs think other power conferences want them after TX/OU left them out in the cold.

ACC will Match TX/OU additions by adding WVU and Cincinnati. Add 4 Midwest teams and now the Pac-16 is on par with the SEC!
07-27-2021 09:08 PM
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RUScarlets Online
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Post: #270
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
A move to an ACC 16 without ND or PAC16 without OU/UT has to be driven by a network or streaming service that effectively doesn’t want to bid for a separate Big12. Undoubtedly ESPN and perhaps Fox fit the bill. In fact, the two could collude, where the Big 12 is gutted and Fox gets dibs on all tier 1 content for the PAC while E$PN retains the SEC and ACC. It has to come out where you pay less with two mega conferences than you do for 2 power + 1 middling conference. ESPN may be able to save money killing off the Big 12 while overpaying slightly for the Big 12 leftovers that are given a life raft. At least that would be one mechanism for it.
07-27-2021 09:23 PM
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Post: #271
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-27-2021 09:08 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  
(07-27-2021 08:42 PM)bullet Wrote:  TCU writer suggests that its toast.

https://www.frogsowar.com/2021/7/23/2259...-might-not

"...Whether they will wait until the Grant of Rights expires in 2025 or negotiate a deal that lessens the $70+ million penalty for leaving early remains to be seen, but as rumors of ADs seeking out back channels with other conferences leaks fast and furious, it seems the end of the Big 12 is nigh, something that would allow Texas and OU to sneak out quietly in the middle of the night with few penalties.

The Big 12 is effectively over, folks — this isn’t doom and gloom, this is happening.

As TCU fans, our immediate thought goes to what happens next. This tends to fall into three categories:

OH S&!T
TCU is an attractive brand name that will have other suitors
Been there, done that. We’ve navigated conference realignment many times and will be fine.
I am firmly in category one, but y’all know that.

247 Sports insider Jeremy Clark reported last night that TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech have already reached out to the Pac 12 to gauge interest. This makes the most sense for those four teams; those calling for the ACC and Big Ten, I am sorry — it’s not happening, and that’s not just me opining, it’s the feeling of every single person that “knows things” that I’ve spoken with. The Big Ten is engaging with Iowa State and Kansas, two schools that fit their wider profile as AAU/research-heavy schools. If anything, the ACC *might* talk to the Mountaineers, but that train has left the station many a time before without West Virginia on it, so folks in Morgantown are rightfully having flashbacks to the days of the Big East...."

Denial isnt just a river in Egypt.

I do wonder why the leftover Big XII programs think other power conferences want them after TX/OU left them out in the cold.

ACC will Match TX/OU additions by adding WVU and Cincinnati. Add 4 Midwest teams and now the Pac-16 is on par with the SEC!

"Match" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in this sentence.
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CardinalJim Offline
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Post: #272
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-23-2021 01:57 PM)usffan Wrote:  [Image: E6_fQqdXEAUsoHi?format=jpg&name=small]

USFFan

Go ahead and change The Big 12 to The ACC 03-lmfao

Do that and you’ll be ready for the pending hit that’s coming. When The ACC GOR gets closer to expiration The ACC will be whacked.
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MinerInWisconsin Offline
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Post: #273
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
If the 8 decide to stick together, or it's decided for them with no invites elsewhere, will they wait until the Texas/OU exits are negotiated to establish time lines before expanding (assuming they do expand)?
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Post: #274
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(Yesterday 12:27 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  If the 8 decide to stick together, or it's decided for them with no invites elsewhere, will they wait until the Texas/OU exits are negotiated to establish time lines before expanding (assuming they do expand)?

If they indeed have no where else to go I'd think they would want to go ahead and sure up the conference with a couple of ads before Texas/OU leave and then maybe look for a couple more afterwards. If as many believe BYU and Cincinnati are the top targets (and both want to come) then why not go ahead and lock those two in now and spend more time vetting any further ads.
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