Assuming KU and ISU end up in B1G (as AAU schools)...

WV is left to its own devices back east...

This leaves 5 without a home: KSU, OSU, TT, Baylor and TCU.

If the Pac 12 comes calling TCU is likely the odd one out...

It would not be the worst fate for KSU and Baylor especially, if the Pac added an Eastern quad with
Kansas State
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
Baylor

Baylor brings some academic pinache that the Pac likes, the others aren't any worse than Washington State. For KSU and TT especially, they can recruit the west coast now they will be on TV and visiting every year.

If they play in a basketball division with AZ, ASU, CO and UT, the travel isn't bad for home and home every year.

Long shot...

Nebraska back to B12 - with Texas gone, Cinci added

(07-21-2021 11:19 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  Assuming KU and ISU end up in B1G (as AAU schools)...

WV is left to its own devices back east...

This leaves 5 without a home: KSU, OSU, TT, Baylor and TCU.

If the Pac 12 comes calling TCU is likely the odd one out...

It would not be the worst fate for KSU and Baylor especially, if the Pac added an Eastern quad with
Kansas State
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
Baylor

Baylor brings some academic pinache that the Pac likes, the others aren't any worse than Washington State. For KSU and TT especially, they can recruit the west coast now they will be on TV and visiting every year.

If they play in a basketball division with AZ, ASU, CO and UT, the travel isn't bad for home and home every year.

Baylor would have no shot. Not only do they lack the academics the Pac-12 desires (research) they are about as opposite a cultural fit as you could find for the P12. Baylor is just an inch above BYU in terms of chances of the Pac12 looking their way.

(07-21-2021 11:19 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  Assuming KU and ISU end up in B1G (as AAU schools)...

WV is left to its own devices back east...

This leaves 5 without a home: KSU, OSU, TT, Baylor and TCU.

If the Pac 12 comes calling TCU is likely the odd one out...

It would not be the worst fate for KSU and Baylor especially, if the Pac added an Eastern quad with
Kansas State
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
Baylor

Baylor brings some academic pinache that the Pac likes, the others aren't any worse than Washington State. For KSU and TT especially, they can recruit the west coast now they will be on TV and visiting every year.

If they play in a basketball division with AZ, ASU, CO and UT, the travel isn't bad for home and home every year.

What value does ISU bring to the Big Ten? It's a nonstarter.

(07-21-2021 10:58 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Depends on what happens to the remaining 8 schools. Kansas will find a home somewhere (ACC or Big 10). Does OK St and TT get interest from Pac 12? Does ACC show interest in WVU? Until we know the answer to those questions, we can't accurately predict what will happen. But one this is absolutely sure, the remaining 8 schools WILL try to find life boats to other conferences. If they don't find any, they may try to rebuild B12.

KU might get love from the B1G or ACC. But I think not. The B1G was caught off guard. They have to play the long game, go for properties than help in the long run. A small plains state that is of shrinking importance and zero recruiting value may not be the best value. The properties that help are on the Atlantic Coast in the ACC. Schools like Virginia, North Carolina, Duke and Florida State. So you start working on them targeting the start of the next decade to make your counter strike.

The ACC is more likely to be interested in Kansas (basketball), Baylor or TCU (Texas toehold) than West Virginia (they have Pitt already, so no need). But probably they don't take any.

Flat no on the Pac-12 front. Only if Texas and Oklahoma came would they take the little brothers. On their own they are worth nothing, far below the mean of the Pac-12, bring down valuations. On top of that their academics would be at the very bottom of the Pac-12 and their level of research budget far below the rest of the Pac-12. Religious affiliation rules out Baylor and TCU, as well as the fact that neither is a research school, and both are in far more valuable parts of Texas than Lubbock.

The reality is, while those schools may try to sell themselves to other power conferences, they don't have enough to offer for anyone to be interested. If they did bring more value then Texas and Oklahoma would stay.

This is the P5 equivalent of the SLC. A group of schools with not enough value for their rivals to offer an invite. So they have a kind of stability.

The name of the game is MONEY.

I dont know which of the 8 schools left in the Big XII add much value to any other conference.

Pac-12 isnt adding any of them. Kansas might be a decent fit in the B1G but they offer little beyond basketball. ACC doesnt need WVU and doesnt want the rest.

I think they add two to four. Most likely just two.

(07-21-2021 06:26 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Sh*t rolls downhill in conference realignment.

If only because of exit fees and other costs (such as NCAA Tournament credits), the Big 12 would still be in a much stronger position to poach who it wants from the G5 leagues even if it lost Kansas on top of Texas and Oklahoma.

But the AAC is ESPN exclusive and the Big XII is a contract divided. Does ESPN even bid on a new Big XII contract when they can cherry pick the leftovers and move them into a conference under contract long term? Do they make Fox overpay for a diminished product to keep inventory? In order to lure teams from the AAC they will need to be making more money. Without UT/OU there is no guarantee that they make more than the AAC currently. ESPN exclusive Conferences are SEC, ACC, AAC. B1G, PAC 12, and Big XII are split between them and FOX.

(07-21-2021 10:58 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Depends on what happens to the remaining 8 schools. Kansas will find a home somewhere (ACC or Big 10). Does OK St and TT get interest from Pac 12? Does ACC show interest in WVU? Until we know the answer to those questions, we can't accurately predict what will happen. But one this is absolutely sure, the remaining 8 schools WILL try to find life boats to other conferences. If they don't find any, they may try to rebuild B12.

It could get crazy if the B1G tries something.

B1G (Virginia, Florida St)
ACC (WVU, UCF)

That would leave the XII with 7 schools. To get to 12 they go for UC, UH, SMU, UH, USF.

Which leaves the AAC with Tulsa, Tulane, Temple and ECU as full members. It makes sense to rejoin the MAC and CUSA at that point. Divide the CFP money moving forward less ways with only 9 conferences.

(07-22-2021 12:29 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 10:58 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Depends on what happens to the remaining 8 schools. Kansas will find a home somewhere (ACC or Big 10). Does OK St and TT get interest from Pac 12? Does ACC show interest in WVU? Until we know the answer to those questions, we can't accurately predict what will happen. But one this is absolutely sure, the remaining 8 schools WILL try to find life boats to other conferences. If they don't find any, they may try to rebuild B12.

KU might get love from the B1G or ACC. But I think not. The B1G was caught off guard. They have to play the long game, go for properties than help in the long run. A small plains state that is of shrinking importance and zero recruiting value may not be the best value. The properties that help are on the Atlantic Coast in the ACC. Schools like Virginia, North Carolina, Duke and Florida State. So you start working on them targeting the start of the next decade to make your counter strike.

The ACC is more likely to be interested in Kansas (basketball), Baylor or TCU (Texas toehold) than West Virginia (they have Pitt already, so no need). But probably they don't take any.

Flat no on the Pac-12 front. Only if Texas and Oklahoma came would they take the little brothers. On their own they are worth nothing, far below the mean of the Pac-12, bring down valuations. On top of that their academics would be at the very bottom of the Pac-12 and their level of research budget far below the rest of the Pac-12. Religious affiliation rules out Baylor and TCU, as well as the fact that neither is a research school, and both are in far more valuable parts of Texas than Lubbock.

The reality is, while those schools may try to sell themselves to other power conferences, they don't have enough to offer for anyone to be interested. If they did bring more value then Texas and Oklahoma would stay.

This is the P5 equivalent of the SLC. A group of schools with not enough value for their rivals to offer an invite. So they have a kind of stability.

I could see the Pac taking say, Kansas and Tech. Central time zone teams could help them move their games earlier, which is a big obstacle to getting their games on east coast tv at a desirable time. Kansas is comparable in research funding to Washington State, ahead of Oregon State and Oregon. Texas Tech is ahead of Oregon.

(07-22-2021 12:40 AM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 06:26 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Sh*t rolls downhill in conference realignment.

If only because of exit fees and other costs (such as NCAA Tournament credits), the Big 12 would still be in a much stronger position to poach who it wants from the G5 leagues even if it lost Kansas on top of Texas and Oklahoma.

But the AAC is ESPN exclusive and the Big XII is a contract divided. Does ESPN even bid on a new Big XII contract when they can cherry pick the leftovers and move them into a conference under contract long term? Do they make Fox overpay for a diminished product to keep inventory? In order to lure teams from the AAC they will need to be making more money. ESPN exclusive Conferences are SEC, ACC, AAC. B1G, PAC 12, and Big XII are split between them and FOX.

It wont be divided in 2026 when the new contracts come out. CBS has been selling off their parts of the Big12, opted out of the final three CCG that had rights too (I think they are looking at the B1G and P12 with ESPN becoming completely dominant over the SEC and ACC properties). And ESPN values the likes of TCU, Kansas, Baylor, Oklahoma State and West Virginia one heck of a lot more than Cincinnati, Tulsa, SMU and Houston. And they value BYU at least as much as schools in the American.

ESPN will throw considerably more money at the reduced B12 than they do at the AAC. And they will help the B12 pick two replacements that maximize the value of the conference. It's not like the B12 can say no, even if they wanted to. ESPN will make sure they get the best value property from the American.

(07-22-2021 12:49 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 12:40 AM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 06:26 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Sh*t rolls downhill in conference realignment.

If only because of exit fees and other costs (such as NCAA Tournament credits), the Big 12 would still be in a much stronger position to poach who it wants from the G5 leagues even if it lost Kansas on top of Texas and Oklahoma.

But the AAC is ESPN exclusive and the Big XII is a contract divided. Does ESPN even bid on a new Big XII contract when they can cherry pick the leftovers and move them into a conference under contract long term? Do they make Fox overpay for a diminished product to keep inventory? In order to lure teams from the AAC they will need to be making more money. ESPN exclusive Conferences are SEC, ACC, AAC. B1G, PAC 12, and Big XII are split between them and FOX.

It wont be divided in 2026 when the new contracts come out. CBS has been selling off their parts of the Big12, opted out of the final three CCG that had rights too (I think they are looking at the B1G and P12 with ESPN becoming completely dominant over the SEC and ACC properties). And ESPN values the likes of TCU, Kansas, Baylor, Oklahoma State and West Virginia one heck of a lot more than Cincinnati, Tulsa, SMU and Houston. And they value BYU at least as much as schools in the American.

ESPN will throw considerably more money at the reduced B12 than they do at the AAC. And they will help the B12 pick two replacements that maximize the value of the conference. It's not like the B12 can say no, even if they wanted to. ESPN will make sure they get the best value property from the American.

Let's agree to disagree. History (Big East) shows that ESPN has no problem tearing apart a conference they don't hold the rights to. If the Big XII gives ESPN an exclusive negotiating window, you could be right. But I suspect they may just grab the best parts for the conferences they own outright and leave the carcass on the plains.

I wonder how this move effects ND and the ACC . Will it finally push the Irish to the ACC . They just experienced a full conference season and had success in it. If ND joins ACC that conference will get large infusion of $$ enough to where ACC is close to Big 10

ESPN will take over the B12. It is the easiest and cheapest way to control the 8 schools who all have higher value than any of the American schools. They will move a couple schools into the B12, and have the leverage to move more if they want.

CBS is leaving the B12, out of the picture. It's all ESPN going forward.

(07-21-2021 09:43 PM)goofus Wrote:  If the plan is still to expand the CFP to 12 teams with the top 6 conference champions, then the Big 12 will still have plenty of incentive to stick around.

The concept of the P5 will be gone but that does not mean it will now be a P4. Instead there will be a clear pecking order now established in conference revenue

1. SEC (with Tex and Ok)
2. Big Ten
3. ACC, ND
4. PAC
5. Big 12 (with Hou, Cincy, Memphis, USF, UCF, BYU)
6. AAC
7. MWC
8. CUSA
9. SBC
10. MAC

So the Big Ten, ACC or PAC won't expand unless it adds value to their conference. Otherwise they will stand pat to hold their place in line. They will still get at least 1 team in the playoffs almost every year.

The only thing the Big Ten and ACC could do to keep up with the SEC is for the best teams to leave the Big Ten and ACC and form a new super conference. Maybe starting with PSU, Mich, OSU, Wisc, Clem, FSU, ND and adding 5 more. Of course I can't see those Big Ten schools doing that to their conference mates, so I think the Big Ten and ACC are stuck.

Culturally the southern ACC teams hate the northern school in there own conference lol good luck getting GT,Clemson and FSU to want anything to do with the northern big 10 schools lol. It won’t work they don’t fit.

(07-22-2021 01:11 AM)PusherT Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 09:43 PM)goofus Wrote:  If the plan is still to expand the CFP to 12 teams with the top 6 conference champions, then the Big 12 will still have plenty of incentive to stick around.

The concept of the P5 will be gone but that does not mean it will now be a P4. Instead there will be a clear pecking order now established in conference revenue

1. SEC (with Tex and Ok)
2. Big Ten
3. ACC, ND
4. PAC
5. Big 12 (with Hou, Cincy, Memphis, USF, UCF, BYU)
6. AAC
7. MWC
8. CUSA
9. SBC
10. MAC

So the Big Ten, ACC or PAC won't expand unless it adds value to their conference. Otherwise they will stand pat to hold their place in line. They will still get at least 1 team in the playoffs almost every year.

The only thing the Big Ten and ACC could do to keep up with the SEC is for the best teams to leave the Big Ten and ACC and form a new super conference. Maybe starting with PSU, Mich, OSU, Wisc, Clem, FSU, ND and adding 5 more. Of course I can't see those Big Ten schools doing that to their conference mates, so I think the Big Ten and ACC are stuck.

Culturally the southern ACC teams hate the northern school in there own conference lol good luck getting GT,Clemson and FSU to want anything to do with the northern big 10 schools lol. It won’t work they don’t fit.

$400m in today's money in additional distributions over a decade breaks down a lot of resistance. We will probably be talking about $600-700m come 2031.

If school's were that loyal residents and alumni and they would not be selling seats to PRC Nationals and Oil-igarchy elites.

(07-21-2021 11:19 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  Assuming KU and ISU end up in B1G (as AAU schools)...

That is a hurdle to clear, not a positive attraction. Missouri, ISU and Kansas were all available when the Big Ten took Nebraska. ISU and Kansas were available when the Big Ten took Missouri.

(07-22-2021 01:06 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  ESPN will take over the B12. It is the easiest and cheapest way to control the 8 schools who all have higher value than any of the American schools. They will move a couple schools into the B12, and have the leverage to move more if they want.

CBS is leaving the B12, out of the picture. It's all ESPN going forward.

Disagree here

The American already have their ESPN windows locked up for 12 years, and they are in much more densely populated markets. The remaining Big 12 teams value was tied up in having UT/OU coming to their town and participating in their conference race. Its essentially a new MWC that needs to find an audience now.

ESPN now has the 2 Big 12 schools they coveted without the fat. The WWL has plenty of content.

(07-22-2021 01:06 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  ESPN will take over the B12. It is the easiest and cheapest way to control the 8 schools who all have higher value than any of the American schools. They will move a couple schools into the B12, and have the leverage to move more if they want.

CBS is leaving the B12, out of the picture. It's all ESPN going forward.

When was CBS ever in the Big 12? They air men's basketball games but I believe that's a sublicense off ESPN and I can't remember they've ever aired a Big 12 conference football game on the Eye (maybe old Big 8 back in the 80's?)

Most of the comments here deal with what will happen to the Big 12 in the next few years. Who will they add, if anyone? Will they get poached further? Etc.

I want to know what the remaining member schools will be like 10 or more years down the road. We can look at the data from the past 10 years and say the 8 remaining teams are still P5 level based on their football performance if not their brand power. But what will the absence of OU and UT from their schedules do to their recruiting? To their attendance? Their media revenues?

I believe that within five years we will already see their on field performance drop, maybe dramatically. Will OK State, Kansas State, Baylor and TCU be able to sustain their recent successes? I doubt it. Will they be able to retain their coaching staffs, or will those schools just be stepping stones for up and coming coaches?

Ironically, this bombshell makes it easier for the remaining teams to expand by adding top AAC programs. Without OU and UT, the average media payout of the B12 is likely to be less than half what it is today, which means the most valuable AAC properties wouldn't dilute the per school payouts by much if at all. And with no members left who would be financially attractive to any other P5 conference, they could actually be more stable than they were in 2020.

But will they be viewed by the media and fans as a power conference in ten years? I doubt it.

(07-22-2021 04:37 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 01:06 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  ESPN will take over the B12. It is the easiest and cheapest way to control the 8 schools who all have higher value than any of the American schools. They will move a couple schools into the B12, and have the leverage to move more if they want.

CBS is leaving the B12, out of the picture. It's all ESPN going forward.

When was CBS ever in the Big 12? They air men's basketball games but I believe that's a sublicense off ESPN and I can't remember they've ever aired a Big 12 conference football game on the Eye (maybe old Big 8 back in the 80's?)

I'm pretty sure it is FOX and ESPN who share the Big 12. Not sure where they got CBS from.