(07-21-2021 06:13 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: I know we're all speculating in various threads about the fallout with the Big 12, but it is in some respect a separate discussion.
Let's presume that Texas and Oklahoma are leaving for the SEC and that they would leave for another league if the SEC refused for some reason.
The Big 12 is down to 8...
Does the league survive at all? Can they expand? Are they picked apart by other leagues?
Are there political implications?
I'll post my thoughts as a Big 12 fan.
1. For some arbitrary numbers from my mind only, there is an 80% chance that this is both legit and goes through, and a 20% that it isn't legit and fails.
Texas and OU seem well coordinated on all of this. The prompts responses, the non-denial denials, etc. all seem pretty cohesive with each other. To me, this reads like a planned move that has begun and will not be stopped. I expect them to play out the Big 12 contract and start fresh in the SEC during the next period. I don't believe TAMU is firmly against it, but I think their AD has to act that way to satisfy their fanbase. The 20% that comes into play is if this is some ploy to scare FOX to the negotiating table. They are about to lose the most valuable items in their second most valuable property to ESPN and this could be an outside shot at getting them to make the money work. I don't think that is the case, but I'll allow for the possibility. The other scenario this fails is if the programs fail to get enough votes to join the SEC. TAMU, Arkansas, Mizzou, and LSU could all be potential no's, as could some eastern schools faced with a divisional prospect of playing Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, and Florida every year. Again, I don't think you get this far without having the votes, but that would be the scenario that it fails.
2. The remaining Big 12's actions depends on the Pac-12, B1G, and ACC.
There is a large question over whether the remaining conferences would feel compelled to grab the Big 12 leftovers. Perhaps the B1G and ACC feel the need to keep pace, or the PAC is desperate to move into the Central Time zone. It is really hard to say as the motivating factors of the last round of realignment are no longer on the table. Making more money as a motivation hasn't changed, but how that happens certainly has. Cable is dying, cable subscriptions are down, you aren't going to see the B1G adding Rutgers type schools. The playoff is expanding, why add another competitor to your conference and muck up the path for your current teams. Why split the payoff by more mouths? There is a reason by the Big 12 and AAC have stood pat after losing members, adding members is not a guaranteed payday anymore. Unless the schools are worth it, why mess with the apple cart? There aren't two properties like OU and Texas available for the B1G to keep pace with the SEC. They might grab Kansas and Notre Dame perhaps in a scramble, but that doesn't really match the new SEC line-up. Why change at all?
If the Pac and B1G and the ACC grab their desired Big 12 pieces then you will see one or two Big 12 schools left out. My guess is likely some grouping of Baylor, TCU, KSU, and ISU, with Baylor being the most likely and ISU/KSU following closely behind. For the left overs, they can go to the AAC or MWC. I think the AAC lines up well with the leftovers as they will prove to be far better potential additions to the AAC lineup vs. UAB, Marshall, App State, Army, or Buffalo. For Baylor, I like the AAC with games against SMU and Houston and Memphis and Tulane.
If the Big 12 remainders are left alone, then I think you see them pick up some of the AAC and the MWC. I think you can expect Cincy, Memphis, Houston, SMU, Tulane, CSU, BYU, UCF, to top the list. I think that this would be a great conference and competitive with the Pac and ACC, even if a solid fifth in the pecking order.
3. Political Implications in Kansas, Iowa, and Oklahoma.
The Big 8 schools that might get left behind by their brethren will raise a shitfit. Baylor and Tech don't have the political will and energy to start kicking rocks again IMO. I might be surprised, but both institutions aren't in a position to wield the same clout that they had in previous realignment circumstances.