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Will the American now institute the original BE's expansion plan? Western-wing
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TroyTBoy Offline
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Will the American now institute the original BE's expansion plan? Western-wing
That seems more probable now than ever.

When ESPN didn't make a strong play for Boise/MWC after announcing their AAC deal, we wondered if they would get that western time zone eventually.

I have to think that - if there's more shuffling - we will finally see the old big east's western expansion plan come to fruition (I thought that ever since the American chose that name), and with the recent passing of John Marinatto, I think the man would be smiling down.

AAC Western Expansion could open a bridge to Gonzaga for hoops. I would think NAVY may change their stance on AFA.

One thing is for sure, the gap between the 5th best conference and the 6th best conference should be narrower than ever, depending on how ESPN and the American respond. Those Western teams may blow up with Eastern media exposure and access to better bowls and basketball opportunities.

That's my view of it anyway. I'm not sure how the Big 12 pushes on with their contract being up and no long term partner. Maybe they make a Western push towards BYU.

Either way, the gap between 5-6 should be narrowing big time.
07-21-2021 05:53 PM
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Crayton Online
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RE: Will the American now institute the original BE's expansion plan? Western-wing
I think the best AAC teams are headed to the Big 12. Western teams are not going to be attracted to the AAC.
07-21-2021 06:35 PM
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TroyTBoy Offline
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RE: Will the American now institute the original BE's expansion plan? Western-wing
(07-21-2021 06:35 PM)Crayton Wrote:  I think the best AAC teams are headed to the Big 12. Western teams are not going to be attracted to the AAC.

A national conference has been talked about for a LONG time.

The MWC's Thompson was itching to merge with the remnants of the old CUSA that was leftover when UH/SMU/UCF/etc left. (We are talking about UAB, USM, etc.) The fact of the matter is the MWC has never had the population density to sustain, once they lost BYU, Utah, etc.

Meanwhile the AAC the dominated the access spot since they switched over from being Big East football. Even the lower tier AAC teams would be in the upper tier of the current MWC (on the field, institutionally, geographically, etc).

Do me a favor and visit the home stadium of the MWC Champion. (SJSU)
Then, go visit last place AAC's ECU's stadium... and let me know who the better program is by far.

The AAC's last place team could literally put SJSU's capacity in one of their end zones.
07-21-2021 07:05 PM
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TroyTBoy Offline
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RE: Will the American now institute the original BE's expansion plan? Western-wing
(07-21-2021 06:35 PM)Crayton Wrote:  I think the best AAC teams are headed to the Big 12. Western teams are not going to be attracted to the AAC.

What works in the AAC's favor is they've had depth. More than 30% of the AAC has played on New Years Day.

With that depth, they could lose teams and still bring in quality replacements and gain ground on the Big 12 because the Big 12 lost its tent poles.

Perhaps bigger than all that is the long-term presence of the WWL, ESPN. They call all the shots.
(This post was last modified: 07-21-2021 07:16 PM by TroyTBoy.)
07-21-2021 07:09 PM
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RE: Will the American now institute the original BE's expansion plan? Western-wing
Sorry. I thought this was in light of the report that the SEC is grabbing Texas and Oklahoma. Both that move and the proposed playoff expansion make Western expansion LESS likely.

If it didn’t happen the last 8 years, it certainly won’t happen post-COVID.
07-21-2021 07:18 PM
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TroyTBoy Offline
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RE: Will the American now institute the original BE's expansion plan? Western-wing
I see it differently.

If the SEC adds Texas/OU it just supports the principle that consolidation of the best teams is just going to continue to happen.

IMO it would've happened earlier, except there weren't enough AAC spots available to support a Division from Texas to California. If the Big 12 did add AAC teams then it would open enough spaces to create an AAC West Division that could stretch from Texas to California.

More importantly, ESPN is already heavily invested in the American, and now they have more need for Western time-zone content. The AAC/ESPN wont add anyone that doesn't bring something unique to the bottom line.

ESPN has shown they wont overpay. There is only a certain subset of available teams that would fit the American contract (and believe it or not there are many in the MWC that would prefer ESPN's exposure and revenue).
(This post was last modified: 07-21-2021 07:33 PM by TroyTBoy.)
07-21-2021 07:26 PM
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Crayton Online
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RE: Will the American now institute the original BE's expansion plan? Western-wing
I think I follow now.

Big 12 takes UC, UCF, USF, and 1 more (let’s say Memphis).

American has 5 spots open: BSU, BYU, SDSU, AF, CSU (plus shift Tulsa west)

That leaves an East division of ECU, Temple, Tulane, Navy/Wichita, SMU, and Houston.

Rather spread out but I suppose not much more than currently. The true question is whether there is $$ in this arrangement.
(This post was last modified: 07-21-2021 07:59 PM by Crayton.)
07-21-2021 07:56 PM
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Once a Knight... Online
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RE: Will the American now institute the original BE's expansion plan? Western-wing
If 4 or more AAC teams are poached by the Big 12, I think there is ZERO chance of Boise or any other MWC team moving to the AAC. There becomes zero benefit. AAC likely backfills from a mix of C-USA/Sun-Belt teams. Plenty of up and coming names out there that would step up into those spots... UAB, Georgia St, App St, Marshall, etc. to name a few.

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07-21-2021 08:03 PM
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RE: Will the American now institute the original BE's expansion plan? Western-wing
(07-21-2021 08:03 PM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  If 4 or more AAC teams are poached by the Big 12, I think there is ZERO chance of Boise or any other MWC team moving to the AAC. There becomes zero benefit. AAC likely backfills from a mix of C-USA/Sun-Belt teams. Plenty of up and coming names out there that would step up into those spots... UAB, Georgia St, App St, Marshall, etc. to name a few.


That's entirely possible.

If ESPN wants the Sunbelt teams (who showed well this year) ESPN will bring them to their network. ESPN has been the single biggest force behind realignment. What they say goes.

My opinion is they will offer the MWC teams, just like history has shown (when the AAC was the old Big East).
(This post was last modified: 07-21-2021 08:27 PM by TroyTBoy.)
07-21-2021 08:26 PM
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RE: Will the American now institute the original BE's expansion plan? Western-wing
(07-21-2021 07:56 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Rather spread out but I suppose not much more than currently. The true question is whether there is $$ in this arrangement.


The money is in having the sixth most successful league at worst.

As someone who saw very closely how the Big East morphed into the AAC, there has always been money in being no worse than 6th.

That's why the best teams will always rush to crowd the leagues with the best deals and exposure, and ESPN will be the traffic cop.
(This post was last modified: 07-21-2021 08:32 PM by TroyTBoy.)
07-21-2021 08:31 PM
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RE: Will the American now institute the original BE's expansion plan? Western-wing
(07-21-2021 07:56 PM)Crayton Wrote:  I think I follow now.

Big 12 takes UC, UCF, USF, and 1 more (let’s say Memphis).

American has 5 spots open: BSU, BYU, SDSU, AF, CSU (plus shift Tulsa west)

That leaves an East division of ECU, Temple, Tulane, Navy/Wichita, SMU, and Houston.

Rather spread out but I suppose not much more than currently. The true question is whether there is $$ in this arrangement.
Waiting for B12 to get over holding their noses at non state flagships.

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07-21-2021 08:33 PM
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TroyTBoy Offline
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RE: Will the American now institute the original BE's expansion plan? Western-wing
(07-21-2021 08:33 PM)panama Wrote:  Waiting for B12 to get over holding their noses at non state flagships.

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The problem is, I'm not sure there are any real flagships left in the "12" after Texas and OU leave. There are just a bunch of teams in the same predicament the MWC teams are in.

At that point, you need population and demographics. Do those schools drive value for ESPN? Or will their contract take a HUGE hit (which many speculate it will) which renders the Big 12 ghostship a moot point.

Those MWCesque flagships then will be scrambling to find a new TV deal and who will pay them? And what will that number be?

Who knows who goes where at that point. IMO, Aresco did a great job at securing a long term stable deal that can be adjusted. He's got the one-up on everyone except Texas and OU in this scenario.

If the AAC schools find themselves even needing anyone is anyones guess. If they do, it wouldn't even be surprising to see them just add two? CSU/AF? Who knows? Maybe itll be KSU and OSU.
(This post was last modified: 07-21-2021 08:47 PM by TroyTBoy.)
07-21-2021 08:46 PM
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RE: Will the American now institute the original BE's expansion plan? Western-wing
(07-21-2021 08:26 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  
(07-21-2021 08:03 PM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  If 4 or more AAC teams are poached by the Big 12, I think there is ZERO chance of Boise or any other MWC team moving to the AAC. There becomes zero benefit. AAC likely backfills from a mix of C-USA/Sun-Belt teams. Plenty of up and coming names out there that would step up into those spots... UAB, Georgia St, App St, Marshall, etc. to name a few.


That's entirely possible.

If ESPN wants the Sunbelt teams (who showed well this year) ESPN will bring them to their network. ESPN has been the single biggest force behind realignment. What they say goes.

My opinion is they will offer the MWC teams, just like history has shown (when the AAC was the old Big East).


ESPN already has all the Sun Belt teams. They don't have CUSA and MWC.
07-21-2021 08:56 PM
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RE: Will the American now institute the original BE's expansion plan? Western-wing
(07-21-2021 07:26 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  IMO it would've happened earlier, except there weren't enough AAC spots available to support a Division from Texas to California. If the Big 12 did add AAC teams then it would open enough spaces to create an AAC West Division that could stretch from Texas to California.

It would have happened earlier, except there wasn't enough incremental value in the AAC to justify the disadvantages of joining a more far flung conference.

And that increment is going to do down, not up.

So it's not going to happen. The AAC is hoping that the Little Eight pick BYU and stick with 10, reducing the raid to a single school, where they can just stay at ten.
07-22-2021 02:52 AM
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RE: Will the American now institute the original BE's expansion plan? Western-wing

07-22-2021 04:12 AM
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