(08-14-2021 11:06 AM)boss man Wrote:  At the end of the day, the B12 is still a "P5" conference....at least until 2025 when their contract expires.

I believe what ultimately happens falls on who moves first? FOX deciding to bid or not. Will ESPN wait for that to happen or move to rebuild it for them before 2025?

The wild card is the ACC. They tend to make unexpected moves that come out of the blue, LOL. They might be looking to get to 16 full members and go after Notre Dame and one other. Will it be WVU?? Unsure. That "other" could certainly come from the AAC. Cincinnati is a logical choice but MEMPHIS might draw some interest as well. Keep the unconventional timing of the ACC in mind.

Back to the "new" B12 contract. Regardless of the network, I think what ultimately happens is the top 4-6 from the AAC move to the B12. I hope three things:
> MEMPHIS is moved to the B12
> ESPN gets the new contract
> The new contract is between $15-20m/year

last part will not happen. 10 to at most 15 mil per year.

(08-15-2021 12:31 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(08-14-2021 10:13 PM)panite Wrote:  If the PAC-12 takes 4 teams, WV is left in the B-12 with the other 3 leftovers. Add BYU and your at 5 members again with all that exit money in your pocket. Now you hit the AAC and / or the MWC for their top teams and get back to 10 or 12 teams for the conference. OR you merge the AAC 11 teams (Navy / Wichita counts as one) with BYU and the 4 leftovers under the B-12 for a 16 team conference. Reality says the Little 8 stays together, plus BYU, plus 3 AAC schools though.

Who will pay for that?

Reality says the L8 need bidders at the table to support the additions of those teams.

BYU and the AAC teams are ESPN properties, which means this unknown network will need to outbid ESPN for those programs.

Without a promise of an acceptable number of broadcast windows (with a solid record of delivering audiences) as well as an acceptable revenue figure, it will be the AAC/ESPN bringing in teams with a better offer.

i.e. Someone needs to outbid ESPN for the same teams. (and the L8 have been having hella trouble bringing interested parties to the table)

Those same 8 Big12 teams---and those 4 AAC additions---are filling ESPN/FOX windows RIGHT NOW. What exactly will those broadcasters fill those windows when they refuse to bid on the Big12 and someone else grabs them as a bargain---Lumber Jack competitions? Meanwhile I guess everyone will be watching CBS and NBC who just picked up a ton of Big12 football---a league with a ton of well known names---for 15 million team--about a third what ESPN will be paying for Rutgers and Vandy. Folks its just business----if ESPN can get Big12 teams for half what they are paying now---you better believe they are going to snap up that inventory before FOX does. Do you remember what happened last time ESPN low balled relatively high end quality inventory? The C7 broke from the Big East and signed a deal with FOX for about 4 times what they would have made under the ESPN offer on the table.

ESPN just snaked CBS out of their cornerstone Game Of The Week SEC football package. Im sure CBS would love to screw over ESPN's big plan to screw over the Big12 and pick up some quality inventory at half the P5 going rate.

(08-15-2021 01:52 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-15-2021 12:31 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(08-14-2021 10:13 PM)panite Wrote:  If the PAC-12 takes 4 teams, WV is left in the B-12 with the other 3 leftovers. Add BYU and your at 5 members again with all that exit money in your pocket. Now you hit the AAC and / or the MWC for their top teams and get back to 10 or 12 teams for the conference. OR you merge the AAC 11 teams (Navy / Wichita counts as one) with BYU and the 4 leftovers under the B-12 for a 16 team conference. Reality says the Little 8 stays together, plus BYU, plus 3 AAC schools though.

Who will pay for that?

Reality says the L8 need bidders at the table to support the additions of those teams.

BYU and the AAC teams are ESPN properties, which means this unknown network will need to outbid ESPN for those programs.

Without a promise of an acceptable number of broadcast windows (with a solid record of delivering audiences) as well as an acceptable revenue figure, it will be the AAC/ESPN bringing in teams with a better offer.

i.e. Someone needs to outbid ESPN for the same teams. (and the L8 have been having hella trouble bringing interested parties to the table)

Those same 8 Big12 teams---and those 4 AAC additions---are filling ESPN/FOX windows RIGHT NOW. What exactly will those broadcasters fill those windows with---Lumber Jack competitions? Meanwhile I guess everyone will be watching CBS and NBC who just picked up a ton of Big12 football---a league with a ton of well nown names---for 15 million team--about a third what ESPN will be paying for Rutgers and Vandy.

It's hard to be patient and wait for things to settle out. We all want to "know" what's going to happen. My classmates from OK and TX are not so sure the L8 will survive. They may have well known names, but both coasts don't really care about Baylor, TT, TCU Iowa State. OST KST, WV (I live in WV), and Kansas (basketball) may have some notoriety, which may help them, but I expect not too much. Just my two cents. Patience is a virtue and I know I lack it.

(08-15-2021 01:52 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-15-2021 12:31 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(08-14-2021 10:13 PM)panite Wrote:  If the PAC-12 takes 4 teams, WV is left in the B-12 with the other 3 leftovers. Add BYU and your at 5 members again with all that exit money in your pocket. Now you hit the AAC and / or the MWC for their top teams and get back to 10 or 12 teams for the conference. OR you merge the AAC 11 teams (Navy / Wichita counts as one) with BYU and the 4 leftovers under the B-12 for a 16 team conference. Reality says the Little 8 stays together, plus BYU, plus 3 AAC schools though.

Who will pay for that?

Reality says the L8 need bidders at the table to support the additions of those teams.

BYU and the AAC teams are ESPN properties, which means this unknown network will need to outbid ESPN for those programs.

Without a promise of an acceptable number of broadcast windows (with a solid record of delivering audiences) as well as an acceptable revenue figure, it will be the AAC/ESPN bringing in teams with a better offer.

i.e. Someone needs to outbid ESPN for the same teams. (and the L8 have been having hella trouble bringing interested parties to the table)

Those same 8 Big12 teams---and those 4 AAC additions---are filling ESPN/FOX windows RIGHT NOW. What exactly will those broadcasters fill those windows when they refuse to bid on the Big12 and someone else grabs them as a bargain---Lumber Jack competitions? Meanwhile I guess everyone will be watching CBS and NBC who just picked up a ton of Big12 football---a league with a ton of well known names---for 15 million team--about a third what ESPN will be paying for Rutgers and Vandy. Folks its just business----if ESPN can get Big12 teams for half what they are paying now---you better believe they are going to snap up that inventory before FOX does. Do you remember what happened last time ESPN low balled relatively high end quality inventory? The C7 broke from the Big East and signed a deal with FOX for about 4 times what they would have made under the ESPN offer on the table.

ESPN just snaked CBS out of their cornerstone Game Of The Week SEC football package. Im sure CBS would love to screw over ESPN's big plan to screw over the Big12 and pick up some quality inventory at half the P5 going rate.

I’m sorry but to compare ESPN stealing from CBS the SEC game of the week package to getting the L8 tv package is ridiculous. ESPN doesn’t need the L8 for inventory. Those 8 are worth very similar to AAC and if you think ESPN, FOX or anyone else is going to be putting down 15 million per team for that you are in denial. You think many outside of their fans care for OKState vs Texas Tech, or Kansas State vs Baylor?
I think if they get 10 million each would be a good get.

(08-15-2021 02:31 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(08-15-2021 01:52 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-15-2021 12:31 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(08-14-2021 10:13 PM)panite Wrote:  If the PAC-12 takes 4 teams, WV is left in the B-12 with the other 3 leftovers. Add BYU and your at 5 members again with all that exit money in your pocket. Now you hit the AAC and / or the MWC for their top teams and get back to 10 or 12 teams for the conference. OR you merge the AAC 11 teams (Navy / Wichita counts as one) with BYU and the 4 leftovers under the B-12 for a 16 team conference. Reality says the Little 8 stays together, plus BYU, plus 3 AAC schools though.

Who will pay for that?

Reality says the L8 need bidders at the table to support the additions of those teams.

BYU and the AAC teams are ESPN properties, which means this unknown network will need to outbid ESPN for those programs.

Without a promise of an acceptable number of broadcast windows (with a solid record of delivering audiences) as well as an acceptable revenue figure, it will be the AAC/ESPN bringing in teams with a better offer.

i.e. Someone needs to outbid ESPN for the same teams. (and the L8 have been having hella trouble bringing interested parties to the table)

Those same 8 Big12 teams---and those 4 AAC additions---are filling ESPN/FOX windows RIGHT NOW. What exactly will those broadcasters fill those windows when they refuse to bid on the Big12 and someone else grabs them as a bargain---Lumber Jack competitions? Meanwhile I guess everyone will be watching CBS and NBC who just picked up a ton of Big12 football---a league with a ton of well known names---for 15 million team--about a third what ESPN will be paying for Rutgers and Vandy. Folks its just business----if ESPN can get Big12 teams for half what they are paying now---you better believe they are going to snap up that inventory before FOX does. Do you remember what happened last time ESPN low balled relatively high end quality inventory? The C7 broke from the Big East and signed a deal with FOX for about 4 times what they would have made under the ESPN offer on the table.

ESPN just snaked CBS out of their cornerstone Game Of The Week SEC football package. Im sure CBS would love to screw over ESPN's big plan to screw over the Big12 and pick up some quality inventory at half the P5 going rate.

I’m sorry but to compare ESPN stealing from CBS the SEC game of the week package to getting the L8 tv package is ridiculous. ESPN doesn’t need the L8 for inventory. Those 8 are worth very similar to AAC and if you think ESPN, FOX or anyone else is going to be putting down 15 million per team for that you are in denial. You think many outside of their fans care for OKState vs Texas Tech, or Kansas State vs Baylor?
I think if they get 10 million each would be a good get.

To be fair---interest in most of those Big12 teams in this region is probably substantially stronger than it is there. The point I continue to stress is the comparison isnt between Kansas St and UCF. The comparison is between the leftover 8 and the bottom of the AAC. If the 8 Big 12 leftovers has more value than the bottom half of the AAC---the maximum media value would come from adding the top of the AAC to the leftover 8. Thus, the media value will not only be more than the 7 million per team AAC deal---but it probably will only be a short 5 or 6 year deal---No reason to sign a long term deal at your weakest point. That will allow the rebuilt B12 to prove itself and potentially pick up a substantial contract bump in a few years. That opportunity for a raise in 5 years is valuable and really isnt in the cards with our current deal.

(08-15-2021 02:52 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  To be fair---interest in most of those Big12 teams in this region is probably substantially stronger than it is there. The point I continue to stress is the comparison isnt between Kansas St and UCF. The comparison is between the leftover 8 and the bottom of the AAC. If the 8 Big 12 leftovers has more value than the bottom half of the AAC---the maximum media value would come from adding the top of the AAC to the leftover 8. Thus, the media value will not only be more than the 7 million per team AAC deal---but it probably will only be a short 5 or 6 year deal---No reason to sign a long term deal at your weakest point. That will allow the rebuilt B12 to prove itself and potentially pick up a substantial contract bump in a few years. That opportunity for a raise in 5 years is valuable and really isnt in the cards with our current deal.

A 16 team conference that would look like this:

Leftover 8
Iowa St
Okla St
TCU
WVU
Baylor
Kansas St
Texas Tech
Kansas

Top AAC
Cincinnati
UCF
Tulsa
Tulane
Memphis
SMU
Houston
Navy

In the order of the USA Today 2020 rankings.

*** SMUstang ***

(08-14-2021 10:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  B12 is going to take whoever they want from the AAC. Stop kidding yourselves.

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When UT and OU decided to walk away from the big12 and leftovers the big12 name derailed itself downwards tarnishing whatever equity it had generated with UT & OU.

The open dialogue the AAC currently has with espn is far more sexier than what espn has with the big12... Whatever happens along the way I like AAC’s chances better.

(08-15-2021 07:28 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  

(08-14-2021 10:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  B12 is going to take whoever they want from the AAC. Stop kidding yourselves.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

When UT and OU decided to walk away from the big12 and leftovers the big12 name derailed itself downwards tarnishing whatever equity it had generated with UT & OU.

The open dialogue the AAC currently has with espn is far more sexier than what espn has with the big12... Whatever happens along the way I like AAC’s chances better.

Without Texas and Oklahoma the Big 12 is a glorified MWC with a few more basketball credits. They won’t be poaching anybody, it would be a lateral move at best.

(08-14-2021 10:47 AM)b2b Wrote:  B12 is going to take whoever they want from the AAC. Stop kidding yourselves.

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B12 - Been playing big boy football since 1996.

AAC - Still trying to get there since 2013.