(07-23-2021 12:01 PM)pesik Wrote:  also something that if funny to me is that people genuinely think the pac 12 will wholesale add 2nd tier programs into its already dilute brand

- baylor- in the middle of nowhere, small private school, insane scandal
- texas tech - basically new mexico, not remotely close to anything in texas
- tcu- small private school in dallas

baylor has no chance... tech and tcu are good "partner" schools but dont add any value ..the pac 12 adding them would mean adding teams for the sake of adding them...i dont think they'll do....

ku football team does more damage than any positive gained by basketball for the big 10

The problem that the PAC has, is that it needs new territory in different time zones. OKState will help in football they want to get into Texas and that’s why I said Houston was a better fit than the Big12 schools and that UH should be trying to get into PAC not into the dying B12

As you stated TT,TCU, Baylor, KState,ISU and Kansas don’t have the markets and they dont really move the needle which is why their tv contract will be crap. But yet people here keep acting like going to join the same group that offers little is going to be much better than the AAC.

In my book the AAC schools are in better markets and have more upside than the leftovers. Yet everyone is acting like they are going t9 join a Power conference with big payouts.

The Big12 is dead, why would anyone leave the AAC to join what would be left from that group that all the other conferences think they aren’t valuable to basically end up with similar rights as the current AAC.

Oh and don’t come telling me about Bowl tie ins, because if anyone thinks that any surviving B12 will hav3 same bowl tie ins as they do now is about as crazy as 5hose that think PAC schools or Nebraska will join that conference.

(07-23-2021 12:01 PM)pesik Wrote:  also something that if funny to me is that people genuinely think the pac 12 will wholesale add 2nd tier programs into its already dilute brand

- baylor- in the middle of nowhere, small private school, insane scandal
- texas tech - basically new mexico, not remotely close to anything in texas
- tcu- small private school in dallas

baylor has no chance... tech and tcu are good "partner" schools but dont add any value ..the pac 12 adding them would mean adding teams for the sake of adding them...i dont think they'll do....

ku football team does more damage than any positive gained by basketball for the big 10

Baylor is not in the middle of nowhere. It's a mid sized city right on I35 (the busiest freeway in Texas probably), between Austin and Dallas and less than 1.5 hours from both.

TCU is on one of the largest metros in the country. But you already knew that.

TT I agree with.

(07-22-2021 09:08 PM)NoQuarterBrigade Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 08:24 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  UT and OU leaving the big12 only tells me the left behinds never brought nothing to the table.

The big12 tv revenue is going to grossly shrink when their two cash cows leave... Blows my mind why on earth many here want to join a depleted conference and their left behinds. Un freaking real.

Thank you. Well said.

Because association identity and $14 million a year is better than $7 million a year.

My guess is that Big 12 is adding BYU and one AAC team (Congratulations to either Cincy or UCF).

(07-23-2021 12:27 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 12:01 PM)pesik Wrote:  also something that if funny to me is that people genuinely think the pac 12 will wholesale add 2nd tier programs into its already dilute brand

- baylor- in the middle of nowhere, small private school, insane scandal
- texas tech - basically new mexico, not remotely close to anything in texas
- tcu- small private school in dallas

baylor has no chance... tech and tcu are good "partner" schools but dont add any value ..the pac 12 adding them would mean adding teams for the sake of adding them...i dont think they'll do....

ku football team does more damage than any positive gained by basketball for the big 10

Baylor is not in the middle of nowhere. It's a mid sized city right on I35 (the busiest freeway in Texas probably), between Austin and Dallas and less than 1.5 hours from both.

TCU is on one of the largest metros in the country. But you already knew that.

TT I agree with.

.. and in your time estimation are you driving 95miles per hr?? its 2 hours both ways

as far as noteable cities its tiny ... if i said tyler texas is in the middle of nowhere.. stating its a 2 hour drive from dallas and has the sam population as waco doesnt change that

(07-23-2021 01:14 PM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 09:08 PM)NoQuarterBrigade Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 08:24 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  UT and OU leaving the big12 only tells me the left behinds never brought nothing to the table.

The big12 tv revenue is going to grossly shrink when their two cash cows leave... Blows my mind why on earth many here want to join a depleted conference and their left behinds. Un freaking real.

Thank you. Well said.

Because association identity and $14 million a year is better than $7 million a year.

My guess is that Big 12 is adding BYU and one AAC team (Congratulations to either Cincy or UCF).

You think they’ll get 14 million?

(07-23-2021 01:17 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 12:27 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 12:01 PM)pesik Wrote:  also something that if funny to me is that people genuinely think the pac 12 will wholesale add 2nd tier programs into its already dilute brand

- baylor- in the middle of nowhere, small private school, insane scandal
- texas tech - basically new mexico, not remotely close to anything in texas
- tcu- small private school in dallas

baylor has no chance... tech and tcu are good "partner" schools but dont add any value ..the pac 12 adding them would mean adding teams for the sake of adding them...i dont think they'll do....

ku football team does more damage than any positive gained by basketball for the big 10

Baylor is not in the middle of nowhere. It's a mid sized city right on I35 (the busiest freeway in Texas probably), between Austin and Dallas and less than 1.5 hours from both.

TCU is on one of the largest metros in the country. But you already knew that.

TT I agree with.

.. and in your time estimation are you driving 95miles per hr?? its 2 hours both ways

as far as noteable cities its tiny ... if i said tyler texas is in the middle of nowhere.. stating its a 2 hour drive from dallas and has the sam population as waco doesnt change that

95 mph? Why would he want to hold up Texas traffic like that.

(07-23-2021 01:19 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 01:14 PM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 09:08 PM)NoQuarterBrigade Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 08:24 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  UT and OU leaving the big12 only tells me the left behinds never brought nothing to the table.

The big12 tv revenue is going to grossly shrink when their two cash cows leave... Blows my mind why on earth many here want to join a depleted conference and their left behinds. Un freaking real.

Thank you. Well said.

Because association identity and $14 million a year is better than $7 million a year.

My guess is that Big 12 is adding BYU and one AAC team (Congratulations to either Cincy or UCF).

You think they’ll get 14 million?

Yes. Still some cache their from a media perspective.

(07-23-2021 01:35 PM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 01:19 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 01:14 PM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 09:08 PM)NoQuarterBrigade Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 08:24 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  UT and OU leaving the big12 only tells me the left behinds never brought nothing to the table.

The big12 tv revenue is going to grossly shrink when their two cash cows leave... Blows my mind why on earth many here want to join a depleted conference and their left behinds. Un freaking real.

Thank you. Well said.

Because association identity and $14 million a year is better than $7 million a year.

My guess is that Big 12 is adding BYU and one AAC team (Congratulations to either Cincy or UCF).

You think they’ll get 14 million?

Yes. Still some cache their from a media perspective.

Problem is we have no idea who will be left when the dancing is done. None of those 8 will be happy with 14 million. Now I’m not saying they all have options but some do and will bail. Every time one bails the cash goes down.

My two cents:

(1) I don't think that the SEC votes to expand. We already know that TX A&M is against the move and it's rumored that Missouri will be a "no" as well. It's also rumored that FL and GA will not vote to expand. I am willing to bet that LSU, Ole Miss and Miss State will also be against the move.

(2) One thing I don't get is this: why would OK want to move? They have an easier path to the playoff every year through the B12 than they would in the SEC. As for TX, they have not been a major player for a number of years now and if they go to the SEC, their path back to prominence will get even tougher.

(3) TX also has the Longhorn Network, which the SEC will certainly have issues with.

(4) Let's say that TX and OK both leave the conference. In that event, the other Autonomous conferences will be looking into expansion as well and they will pick over the leftovers of the B12. TX Tech, Kansas, Kansas State and OK State would fit into the PAC12 nicely and add value to their network. Kansas and Baylor would fit well with the ACC, along with TCU and WVU. Then, you also have to consider what Notre Dame would choose to do: join the ACC as a full member or suffer a more difficult path to the playoffs due to an expanded SEC (which would most assuredly get 4 teams in each season in an expanded 12-team field).

(5) Kansas State, WVU, Baylor, Iowa State and TCU are the B12 schools most likely to either be looking for new homes or tasked with rebuilding the home they already have. Then the question becomes who would want to join them? I would not blame Memphis, Cinci, UCF, USF, Houston, SMU and BYU for joining that group.

(6) The networks have all of the power and in this case and if the B12 leftovers create a super-conference of their own, they might go to 16 teams as well.

(7) Granted, I am no expert on anything sports-business related and I could very well be wrong... but this feels very similar to the last time "B12 Implosion" came up on the national radar. Nothing came of it then and likely, nothing will come of it now.

(07-23-2021 02:18 PM)Ned Low Wrote:  My two cents:

(1) I don't think that the SEC votes to expand. We already know that TX A&M is against the move and it's rumored that Missouri will be a "no" as well. It's also rumored that FL and GA will not vote to expand. I am willing to bet that LSU, Ole Miss and Miss State will also be against the move.

(2) One thing I don't get is this: why would OK want to move? They have an easier path to the playoff every year through the B12 than they would in the SEC. As for TX, they have not been a major player for a number of years now and if they go to the SEC, their path back to prominence will get even tougher.

(3) TX also has the Longhorn Network, which the SEC will certainly have issues with.

(4) Let's say that TX and OK both leave the conference. In that event, the other Autonomous conferences will be looking into expansion as well and they will pick over the leftovers of the B12. TX Tech, Kansas, Kansas State and OK State would fit into the PAC12 nicely and add value to their network. Kansas and Baylor would fit well with the ACC, along with TCU and WVU. Then, you also have to consider what Notre Dame would choose to do: join the ACC as a full member or suffer a more difficult path to the playoffs due to an expanded SEC (which would most assuredly get 4 teams in each season in an expanded 12-team field).

(5) Kansas State, WVU, Baylor, Iowa State and TCU are the B12 schools most likely to either be looking for new homes or tasked with rebuilding the home they already have. Then the question becomes who would want to join them? I would not blame Memphis, Cinci, UCF, USF, Houston, SMU and BYU for joining that group.

(6) The networks have all of the power and in this case and if the B12 leftovers create a super-conference of their own, they might go to 16 teams as well.

(7) Granted, I am no expert on anything sports-business related and I could very well be wrong... but this feels very similar to the last time "B12 Implosion" came up on the national radar. Nothing came of it then and likely, nothing will come of it now.

1) already confirmed to have the votes by reliable media sources

2) money (is the desire to move) and the big 12 leftovers wanted to extend the GOR for 5 more years and the texas/ou didn ot want that but rumor is that they would be outvoted (is the "why now?")

3) LHN will dissolve, mega sec tv deal rumored is expected to be worth more..texas beat writers say texas willing to let LHN go

4) isnt happening, most of that is expansion fanfiction with no chance of reality

5)

6) they dont want water down league.. they have noted they want 10 or 12 ..but hate the options they have to expand with...hoping for pac 12 merger (which is unlikely)

7) its happening, every major reporter is saying that its basically a done deal.. what is to be decided is so they leave now, or leave in 2025 at the end of the GOR...
the official letter with intent ot leave is to be sent next week

(07-23-2021 11:43 AM)Tulsa Guy Wrote:  Has anyone on this board made a correct prediction of expansion? The expansion earthquake that started with Arkansas leaving the SWC and joining the SEC-12 is still playing out. But it is fun posting and making predictions which is the purpose of this board. So here are mine. And, yes, I am repeating many thoughts in previous posts.

BYU: Big-12 is going to have difficult decisions. By any measure, BYU is target #1 or 2. But when Big-12 went thru their expansion fiasco, there were demonstrations on Big-12 campuses by students against BYU. Now, the religious policies of BYU are even more of a problem.

HOUSTON: Big-12 is going to have difficult decisions to make. In their expansion fiasco, Big-12 schools opposed Houston not because Houston wasn't good enough but because Houston was too good. The issue was the increased competition for Texas recruits. With Big-12 membership, the strong Houston program would become even stronger....and the truncated Big-12 needs strong teams.

UCF: A no brainer.

USF: Another difficult decision. UCF has a campus stadium and proven success. USF brings a strong population base. Will Big-12 want two Florida schools? Does Big-12 want USF to compete with UCF for Florida recruits rather than having the recruits focus on UCF because the Knights are in Big-12? It is sort of like Big-12 having TCU for the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex which works against SMU.

SMU: See USF above.

CINCINNATI AND MEMPHIS: Two peas in a pod. Both schools good in football and basketball.

COLORADO STATE: The wild card. I am guessing Big-12 membership would provide a tremendous boost to this program. Anyway, what is the difference between Colorado State versus a Kansas State, Oklahoma State, or Iowa State. Colorado has 6 million people and Denver and Coloardo are growing rapidily in population.

BOISE STATE: AAC presidents rejected BSU as an all-sports member. Geography does play in as a factor. Big-12 will probably not be warm to football only membership...but Big-12 is in dire circumstances.

My prediction is Big-12 expands to more than 12 teams. The low population of Iowa, Kansas, and Oklahoma and the dramatic reduction in its state of Texas presence is going to force Big-12 to go to 14 or 16 teams to expand its population base. My guess is Big-12 might add just a couple initially but will eventually add more teams. Big-12 might elect to wait and see how USF and CSU progress to the level to be included in the conference.

Sadly, ESPN will probably take the TV monies from the AAC contract and pour it into the to be re-negotiated Big-12 TV contract.

The other major issue for Big-12 is the bowls. I don't see Big-12 retaining the Sugar, Texas, and San Antonio Bowls. I also see AAC taking a hit on a couple bowls. On the other hand, one might see a couple of new Big-12 versus AAC bowls.

No doubt Southern Miss, UAB, FIU, UT-San Antonio, UNT, James Madison, and ODU are on the telephone. As reported in the Tulsa World, Tulsa was designated the 13th pick when AAC was being formed and Southern Miss was designated #14. UNT is hurt for AAC consideration if SMU remains in AAC.

As an aside, while it wasn't the determing factor (money is!), the SEC is doing very, very well recruiting the state of Texas and OU and Texas have struggled....TAMU has done great. I think recruiting solidified OU and Texas's decision to seek SEC membership[/php]

Have never understood the irrational exuberance regarding Colorado State.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

(07-23-2021 01:35 PM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 01:19 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 01:14 PM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 09:08 PM)NoQuarterBrigade Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 08:24 PM)BigHouston Wrote:  UT and OU leaving the big12 only tells me the left behinds never brought nothing to the table.

The big12 tv revenue is going to grossly shrink when their two cash cows leave... Blows my mind why on earth many here want to join a depleted conference and their left behinds. Un freaking real.

Thank you. Well said.

Because association identity and $14 million a year is better than $7 million a year.

My guess is that Big 12 is adding BYU and one AAC team (Congratulations to either Cincy or UCF).

You think they’ll get 14 million?

Yes. Still some cache their from a media perspective.

I don't think you know that until the remnants get their next TV deal. The Big 12 is essentially being left with one crown jewel which is Kansas basketball and everyone says this is strictly about football. Without Texas and Oklahoma Big 12 football is not much if any better than the AAC.

I could see OU making the jump to the SEC, but Texas? Not a chance. They're too arrogant to willingly put themselves in a situation where they wouldn't be able to call the shots.