(07-21-2021 03:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:33 PM)johnintx Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:15 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Well---this makes a heall of a lot more sense than Texas and Oklahoma to the Pac12.

I've been telling folks for 9 years it was likely and all I ever got in return was fan think, UT will never follow Aggy. Texas hates the SEC. OU prefers the B1G, and you know a good bit of that was likely true, but these are business moves and in a board room the bottom line, logistics, and overall product fit matters. Softball, women's gymnastics, baseball, all of it has to line up.

Honestly, I figured OU would go to the SEC, but it would be with OSU. It's a perfect fit athletically and institutionally for OU. I didn't expect UT to follow A&M. The novelty of A&M in the SEC will quickly disappear. It'll be good to see UT and A&M on the football field together again.

This is a business, and it's a good business move for all parties.

This hasn't been discussed anywhere publicly, but I presume OU-OSU (Bedlam) will become a permanent non-conference home-and-home as a price for OU's exit from the Big 12.

It's merely the first domino to fall John. Vandy may opt out of the terms laid out by Sankey for all sports to furnish all athletes full scholarships. That's a slot. Missouri may decide they are a better fit with Kansas in the Big 10. If so that's a slot. Who then gets those slots? Is Tech a better value than Vandy? Yes. Is OSU as valuable as Missouri maybe close enough. Am I'm saying these things will happen? No. I'm saying the seismic shift will be massive.

How's ND looking at the future now? What's Clemson and FSU thinking?

The SEC first plan ever back around 89-90 was Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Florida State and Clemson to 16. If two do depart is that still the goal. Both would be more valuable than the departing schools?

There are so many permutations from here. Do top ACC academic programs now bolt to the Big 10? We'll see.

ND? I am not sure this changes much for us right now. But Clemson and FSU should be scared about the coming distance between them and their neighbors. This is th biggest domino left. We're kind if settled.

(07-21-2021 03:43 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:15 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Well---this makes a heall of a lot more sense than Texas and Oklahoma to the Pac12.

I've been telling folks for 9 years it was likely and all I ever got in return was fan think, UT will never follow Aggy. Texas hates the SEC. OU prefers the B1G, and you know a good bit of that was likely true, but these are business moves and in a board room the bottom line, logistics, and overall product fit matters. Softball, women's gymnastics, baseball, all of it has to line up.

Ive said for a long time that IF the Longhorns were to move---the SEC or Big-10 make waaaaay more sense than the Pac-12. I just didnt think either UT or OU would leave a conference that fits them so well and gives them pretty much whatever they want.

That's where my surprise is. OU isn't a huge shock. But I didn't see UT leaving a power conference that they effectively run and follow A&M.

(07-21-2021 03:43 PM)micahandme Wrote:  If the ACC is locked down and the Big Ten can't crack UVA or UNC free, there's no one even in the stratosphere of OU/UT for academics/sports.

No one is locked down. GOR is a fancy way to cover bill rates for attorneys.

If this happens and I'm the Big 12 left with 8 team, I go for the jugular against the PAC

I tell USC, UCLA, CAL, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Arizona to come play in our new Big 16 sandbox

TAMU and Missouri to the B1G

(07-21-2021 03:33 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:28 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:01 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I would presume the XII backfills to 10 (Cincinnati, Houston) or goes to 12 (BYU, Central Florida) but its more fun to speculate how the XII dissolves.

B1G + Iowa St, Kansas
PAC + Kansas St, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas Tech
ACC + Cincinnati, West Virginia
AAC - Cincinnati + Baylor, BYU (football)

None of the above.

No conference that doesn't lose members is going to add new members unless each current member gets a huge stack of new money as a result of the additions.

So, *if* UT and OU jumped to the SEC, what would make the most sense is the Big 12 adding 2 or 4 teams out of the group of Air Force, Boise State, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, UCF, USF. Strategically, the Big 12's best move would be to add 4 from the AAC (or Boise plus 3 from the AAC) so that the football gap between the "new" Big 12 on the one hand and the MWC or the AAC remainders on the other hand is as large as possible.

For the other "P" conferences, what would make the most sense is doing nothing.

The other thing to keep in mind is if the B12 takes the best properties out of the AAC, the AAC media deal will go in the toilet. It will also result in some other realignment downstream (CUSA, SBC).

It could cause the remaining AAC members to seek refuge in the G4.

MWC (SMU, Tulsa)
CUSA (Tulane, ECU)
MAC (Temple)

UCF & USF seem too big for the G4. If left out they can go independent like UConn. Navy back to independent I'd imagine.

If this move does happen and the rest of the conference doesn't get picked up by other P5's then I can see them adding UCF, Houston, Cincinnati & Memphis while signing a GOR & TV deal, stabilize while expanding east. Then start targeting ACC teams FSU, GT, Louisville, Miami, Clemson; see if you can get any interest from any of them towards the end of their tv deal.

(07-21-2021 03:43 PM)micahandme Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:34 PM)schmolik Wrote:  I can't speak for the Big 10 but if Oklahoma and Texas do go to the SEC and I were in charge of the Big 10, I'm not going to bail out Iowa State, Kansas, or anyone else in the Big 12 and I have no need to expand to 16 just to keep up with the SEC. Adding two extra members means cutting the pie into two extra slices. If the two are Texas and Oklahoma, the pie gets bigger and the slices are still bigger overall. If the two are Iowa State and Kansas or any other Big 12 pair, the pie isn't likely going to get bigger and the slices overall will be smaller so why should the Big 10 add anyone? If FOX, ESPN, CBS, etc will offer us a proportional increase for two Big 12 members, I'll listen. Otherwise, no deal.

Agreed.

If the ACC is locked down and the Big Ten can't crack UVA or UNC free, there's no one even in the stratosphere of OU/UT for acadmics/sports.

What if the Big Ten countered the SEC move by landing Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia?

(07-21-2021 02:49 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  https://www.houstonchronicle.com/texas-s...330080.php
[i]
HOOVER, Ala. — A decade after major conference realignment shook up college football, big changes might again be on the horizon.

Texas and Oklahoma of the Big 12 have both reached out to the Southeastern Conference about potentially joining the powerful league, a high-ranking college official with knowledge of the situation told the Houston Chronicle on Wednesday.

Well, that's the Holy Grail of 2020s realignment speculation, right?

(07-21-2021 03:57 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If this happens and I'm the Big 12 left with 8 team, I go for the jugular against the PAC

I tell USC, UCLA, CAL, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Arizona to come play in our new Big 16 sandbox

If I were those schools, there is no way I would leave the PAC for the Big 12. I don't see the Big 12 being a Power COnference for much longer after TX and OK leave. They would be basically on par with the American.

(07-21-2021 04:00 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:43 PM)micahandme Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:34 PM)schmolik Wrote:  I can't speak for the Big 10 but if Oklahoma and Texas do go to the SEC and I were in charge of the Big 10, I'm not going to bail out Iowa State, Kansas, or anyone else in the Big 12 and I have no need to expand to 16 just to keep up with the SEC. Adding two extra members means cutting the pie into two extra slices. If the two are Texas and Oklahoma, the pie gets bigger and the slices are still bigger overall. If the two are Iowa State and Kansas or any other Big 12 pair, the pie isn't likely going to get bigger and the slices overall will be smaller so why should the Big 10 add anyone? If FOX, ESPN, CBS, etc will offer us a proportional increase for two Big 12 members, I'll listen. Otherwise, no deal.

Agreed.

If the ACC is locked down and the Big Ten can't crack UVA or UNC free, there's no one even in the stratosphere of OU/UT for acadmics/sports.

What if the Big Ten countered the SEC move by landing Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia?

That, IMO would not "match" what the SEC would have done. Texas and Oklahoma are valuable enough by themselves to carry a whole P5 conference. We know that because they do.

I would say that no three of the schools you mention above could do that. Arguably all four couldn't.

If this is true, the SEC should move very quickly to add Texas and OU. It's the biggest no-brainer ever.

(07-21-2021 03:54 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:43 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:15 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Well---this makes a heall of a lot more sense than Texas and Oklahoma to the Pac12.

I've been telling folks for 9 years it was likely and all I ever got in return was fan think, UT will never follow Aggy. Texas hates the SEC. OU prefers the B1G, and you know a good bit of that was likely true, but these are business moves and in a board room the bottom line, logistics, and overall product fit matters. Softball, women's gymnastics, baseball, all of it has to line up.

Ive said for a long time that IF the Longhorns were to move---the SEC or Big-10 make waaaaay more sense than the Pac-12. I just didnt think either UT or OU would leave a conference that fits them so well and gives them pretty much whatever they want.

That's where my surprise is. OU isn't a huge shock. But I didn't see UT leaving a power conference that they effectively run and follow A&M.

They essentially get their own mini conference:
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Miss State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Meanwhile in the East:
Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Maybe why there's no early negotiation for tv, hmm.

ESPN and Fox both recently declined early tv negotiations with the Big 12. Makes you wonder if financial figures were discussed and how low of an offer the Big 12 received.

This leak could just be a play to end the equal revenue sharing amongst Big 12 members so Texas and Oklahoma receive a greater share that they deserve. Or maybe it's to get the B1G to agree to equal revenue sharing starting day 1 rather than the 6 year waiting period. Or maybe those SEC $$$'s are just too good to pass up.

(07-21-2021 03:57 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If this happens and I'm the Big 12 left with 8 team, I go for the jugular against the PAC

I tell USC, UCLA, CAL, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Arizona to come play in our new Big 16 sandbox

IMO, that would be like Spud Webb trying to go for I don't know, 2002 Shaq's jugular.

The PAC schools would have zero reason to break up their conference to play with a bunch of midwest low-value losers.

(07-21-2021 03:57 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If this happens and I'm the Big 12 left with 8 team, I go for the jugular against the PAC

I tell USC, UCLA, CAL, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Arizona to come play in our new Big 16 sandbox

You'd have eight schools rolling on the floor laughing their butt off before hanging up the phone:)

(07-21-2021 03:57 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  TAMU and Missouri to the B1G

So A&M is going to let UT be in a "better" football conference than they are? I'd rather just stay and fight than run and let Texas win.

I'd rather from a financial standpoint UT/OU be in the Big 10 but I've always preferred UT and A&M reunited and UT and OU be in the same conference.

(07-21-2021 04:04 PM)SouthernBoiNOLA Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 03:57 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If this happens and I'm the Big 12 left with 8 team, I go for the jugular against the PAC

I tell USC, UCLA, CAL, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Arizona to come play in our new Big 16 sandbox

If I were those schools, there is no way I would leave the PAC for the Big 12. I don't see the Big 12 being a Power COnference for much longer after TX and OK leave. They would be basically on par with the American.

It comes down to, if you were USC, UCLA, CAL, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Arizona who would you rather play and who would offer the most TV money

would it be more profitable to play:
Washington St, Oregon St, Arizona St, and Utah
OR
TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, WVU

The former is status quo while the latter opens up a whole new timezone and TV opportunity.

While its not the PAC 16 Larry Scott envisioned, I think it would better help keep pace with the Big 10 and SEC. With the need for the Rose Bowl dying in an expanded college football playoff, why isolate yourself to the west coast?

Would OU and UT be okay with 25% each, the rest split the remaining half?

If conferences go to 16, I can see them dropping divisions for 4-5 permanent opponents and more games with the rest of the group. Top 2 play in the title game.

(07-21-2021 03:57 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If this happens and I'm the Big 12 left with 8 team, I go for the jugular against the PAC

I tell USC, UCLA, CAL, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Arizona to come play in our new Big 16 sandbox

Arizona St and the Phoenix market for that package not Arizona.

PAC reload with SJSU, SDSU, Boise, UNLV, Colorado St, New Mexico. However it wouldn't have the Rose Bowl, that would go with the Big 16.

Hard to see the remaining XII schools with that much leverage. The PAC could do pretty good if it could get Kansas and Oklahoma St.