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Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
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bill dazzle Online
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Post: #61
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
Let's be realistic. Demographics in the United States likely will continue to change dramatically. In 50 years to 75 years, there will be many tens of millions of Americans more so than is the current figure who simply have no interest in American football. Many will prefer simply "football" (i.e., soccer). The percentage of American football fans as it relates to the overall U.S. population will continue to dip.

The folks who run the show in college football know this. They can't keep the product and its presentation in a state of non-change — no matter what the traditionalists want (I basically put myself in that old-school camp as I'm almost 60 and still miss the old days of the big New Years Day bowls. But I'm not stupid. You evolve or you die). Refusing to change would risk the chances of maximizing creating future fans (which is going to be a challenge as is).

The more teams involved in the playoffs means the more leagues participate and, in theory, the more fans bases that will be engaged.

I was hoping for a 16-team playoff (with the winners of each of the 10 D-I leagues automatically qualifying and six at large). Having 12 is the next best thing.

There is no perfect system. We just have to hope the 12-team playoff will be better than the four-team playoff. I'm very optimistic.
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2021 10:39 PM by bill dazzle.)
07-11-2021 07:12 PM
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Frank the Tank Online
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Post: #62
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-11-2021 06:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(07-11-2021 01:38 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-11-2021 01:02 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Kind of perversely, I think CFB could fall in to an NFL-trap.

An NFL team that is at .500 with 3 games remaining (now that they play 17) maintains fan interest because they still have a very realistic shot at the playoffs. That's not a trap; that's the ideal to which CFB can aspire but never reach.

Compare that to the current state of college football, in which every team is effectively eliminated from playoff contention the minute they pick up their second loss of the season.

If CFB teams with 2 losses still have a chance to reach the playoff, and some teams with 3 losses still have an outside chance in November, there will be a lot more teams playing November games that TV can sell as meaningful, and a lot more teams who can sell hope to their fans in November and not just in September.

CFB isn't the NFL. CFB has been popular for a century without playoffs and with the tiniest of playoffs. Fans care about their school and its teams and want to see them compete regardless of playoffs. We know that because it's been that way for a century+.

The NFL would not have been popular at all without playoffs, as the only reason for the teams existence is to compete for a league championship. Also, because the franchises are creations of the league, all fans are not only "Saints" fans or "Patriots" fans, they are "NFL fans", so they keep watching the playoff games even when their teams aren't in them. So it doesn't matter that in week 14 there are only 50,000 people at the Redskins games instead of 80,000 at the start of the year, because the media money is massive anyway.

I think CFB runs a grave risk if it trades its culture, which has never been playoffs-focused, for a playoffs-focused approach. Because people don't relate to their schools in that same kind of mercenary way that NFL fans relate to their NFL teams. As of now, fans care about their college teams throughout the season because playoffs are a minor part of the overall experience. Ole Miss fans care about Ole Miss all season even though Ole Miss almost never has any chance to make the BCS or the CFP. It's not based on that.

But make it based on that, and then you might have fans dropping out when they realize their 3-3 team isn't going anywhere, like they do in the NFL.

I think the mentality has greatly changed with the 4-team playoff already. The mistake that the powers that be made (or at least underestimated): they thought college football fans would look at the consolation prizes (such as the non-playoff Rose Bowl and other NY6 bowls) in the CFP system same way as they did in the BCS era and that simply hasn’t been the case. So, we are already in a world where the entire national college football discussion revolves around the 4-team playoff, which is why the limited access has been much more damaging to programs (and entire conferences like the Pac-12 recently) compared to the BCS system. There are many rea$on$ why the playoff is expanding, but the hyper-focus on the playoff to the exclusion of virtually everything else in the 4-team CFP system inherently meant that it eventually needed to expand in order to keep more fans interested.
07-11-2021 07:28 PM
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RUScarlets Online
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Post: #63
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
The G5 vs P5 Bowl is usually the most intriguing non Playoff bowl as it is. Now you are going to send the G5 team (9/10 times) on the road more often than not (will conference champs be seeded 1-6? Don’t know)… but that game becomes a lot less interesting if not held at a neutral site. It does become a playoff game.

There is too much value in 5-12… weekend worth of competitive games. But let’s face it, the “bowls” (QFs) are going to be routs aside from a 4v5 or 6v3 here and there.
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2021 08:35 PM by RUScarlets.)
07-11-2021 08:33 PM
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Post: #64
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-11-2021 10:27 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 11:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the current CFP works just fine. Keep it that way, everything else is just a money-grab that puts more physical pressures on the players.
QV, I don’t really disagree with any of that. But the words in bold describe the current system compared to what we had 20 years ago. And it describes what we had in 2000, compared to 1980. And so.

And except for a handful of players who are 1st or 2nd round picks, they probably all want a chance for a championship.
07-11-2021 08:52 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-11-2021 07:07 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-11-2021 06:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  But make it based on that, and then you might have fans dropping out when they realize their 3-3 team isn't going anywhere, like they do in the NFL.

That's not what happens at all.

Last season's Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 7-5 after 12 games and won the Super Bowl.

The 2011 NY Giants were 6-6 after 12 games and won the Super Bowl.

The whole point of the NFL format, like it or not, is that your 3-3 team could easily make the playoffs and might even win it all if they get hot. There are many things to dislike about the NFL, IMO, but they do a great job of selling hope to as many fan bases as possible.

They also have the benefit of the draft, salary caps and free agency to keep the gap between the best and worst teams as small as possible. The only way to come close to that in college football is to have much smaller leagues, each with schools with similar resources compared with their competitors. You can't do it with 130 teams in the same division (FBS). Even the entire P5 as a separate division would be too many schools.
07-11-2021 08:53 PM
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Alanda Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
In a CBS podcast Dodd was a guest speaking on the playoffs, Notre Dame, NIL, and Scott Frost. Here are some things that stuck out to me with the playoff part.

-Believes ESPN didn't renegotiate with Big 12 because they are saving money for the playoff
-I'm paraphrasing, but if bowls are used in quarterfinals he expects tie-ins will be done with
-Bowls not set in stone to be used for quarterfinals
-He thinks future conference media rights deals will be higher because the regular season will be more important





(07-11-2021 05:16 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 03:15 AM)Alanda Wrote:  A lot of this has already been discussed, but I thought this part was interesting.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...t-fallout/

Quote:Will the players benefit ... at all?

There's also significant health and safety issues to consider. The possibility of two teams playing 17 games must be disconcerting for a game that has battled significant medical issues over the last two decades. More than 30 players have died in that timeframe, mostly from heat exertion during practice.

One CFP source said as many as half the 12-team field could play no additional games (assuming six teams do not play in a conference championship game and lose in the first round).

For a team to play the maximum of 17 games, it would have to participate in its league championship game, a first-round playoff game and reach the national championship.

"That's such an unlikely occurrence," one Power Five AD said. "We could go a decade with that not happening."

With more games and more revenue comes increased responsibility. At $1 billion per season in an expanded playoff, an extra $12 million would pour into the coffers of Power Five athletic departments (assuming 78% of the revenue continues to be distributed to teams in those conferences).

Will that lead to enhanced medical coverage from institutions or conferences for athletes, some of whom will put their bodies on the line nearly as often as professionals? Perhaps it results in additional funds going into the pockets of athletes in the CFP beyond what is now possible through name, image and likeness rights?

"Can [CFP participants], if they graduate, walk away with an additional $20,000 or $30,000?" another Power Five AD suggested. "I know the CFP committee is talking about those kinds of things. … At the end of their careers, they get a check for whatever. Those kinds of things are the type of things we're going to have to consider."

Wouldn't it be nice if, out of the increased CFP revenues, every scholarship football player in FBS received $10K for every season they play, plus a $10K bonus if they graduate within five years? That would be a good way to sell the expanded playoffs to university presidents in the current political climate.

Yeah I agree. I mentioned something along those lines early. A player potentially getting six-figures, if they got that money for every appearance, would be great to get their life started after their career is over.
07-11-2021 08:57 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-11-2021 07:07 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-11-2021 06:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  But make it based on that, and then you might have fans dropping out when they realize their 3-3 team isn't going anywhere, like they do in the NFL.

That's not what happens at all.

Last season's Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 7-5 after 12 games and won the Super Bowl.

The 2011 NY Giants were 6-6 after 12 games and won the Super Bowl.

The whole point of the NFL format, like it or not, is that your 3-3 team could easily make the playoffs and might even win it all if they get hot. There are many things to dislike about the NFL, IMO, but they do a great job of selling hope to as many fan bases as possible.

It happens when you can tell your team isn't going anywhere. At 7-5 last year, everyone knew the Bucs were good and had prospects, they just hadn't gelled. The Giants in 2011 still had the glow of 2007 about them. Plus, with CFB, if we have a 12-team playoff, that's 12 teams out of 130 that are going, not 12 teams out of 32 like the NFL. And, in the NFL you have 16 games to right the ship, not just 12. So if you're 3-3 in the NFL, you're still alive, plenty of games left to turn things around, and a big relative field to make. In CFB at 3-3 with just 12 in the playoffs you're still going to have to have a really great record to make the playoffs. Probably two losses, maybe three at most. That's a very high bar. And at 3-3 you've run out of time.

Fans do check out of their team in the NFL all the time. They don't check out of the NFL though because they are NFL fans. I watch all the playoff games every year whether my Rams are in them or not. IMO that's how NFL fans act. We can't expect the same thing for CFB.
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2021 10:01 PM by quo vadis.)
07-11-2021 09:49 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-11-2021 08:57 PM)Alanda Wrote:  -He thinks future conference media rights deals will be higher because the regular season will be more important

If so, that would benefit the PAC, Big 12 and B1G, all of whom have rights deals coming up in a couple of years. Even the MW comes up again in 2026.

In contrast, conferences like the SEC, ACC, and AAC are all locked in until the 2030s, so won't benefit from that windfall.

If there is a windfall.
07-11-2021 09:52 PM
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Post: #69
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-11-2021 06:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  The NFL would not have been popular at all without playoffs, as the only reason for the teams existence is to compete for a league championship. Also, because the franchises are creations of the league, all fans are not only "Saints" fans or "Patriots" fans, they are "NFL fans", so they keep watching the playoff games even when their teams aren't in them. ...

Many, maybe, I don't watch anything but the Super Bowl if the Bungles don't make the playoffs. Hypothetically maybe if the Brownies are in it, as it is something to talk about with my stepfather who is originally from Canton.

I dunno, maybe that comes from growing up in Central Ohio, so becoming a fan of a college football team as a teenager before becoming a fan of an NFL team in college, so maybe I watch NFL football "like" I am watching college football.

____________________
(07-11-2021 09:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  In CFB at 3-3 with just 12 in the playoffs you're still going to have to have a really great record to make the playoffs. Probably two losses, maybe three at most. That's a very high bar. And at 3-3 you've run out of time.

Except if two of those losses were OOC, you are maybe 2-1 in conference and still very early days in the conference championship hunt. This is the reason why media partners would value the "Top X conference champions" part of the package. And if most of your in-division games are later in the season, a lot of your destiny may still be in your hands, in terms of what losses you can inflict on your division rivals to make sure they also have a conference loss and have the head on head over them.
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(07-11-2021 09:52 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(07-11-2021 08:57 PM)Alanda Wrote:  -He thinks future conference media rights deals will be higher because the regular season will be more important

If so, that would benefit the PAC, Big 12 and B1G, all of whom have rights deals coming up in a couple of years. Even the MW comes up again in 2026.

In contrast, conferences like the SEC, ACC, and AAC are all locked in until the 2030s, so won't benefit from that windfall.

If there is a windfall.

So good reason for the SEC and ACC to support a system based on the creation of media value in the CFP itself, and good reason for the PAC-12, Big Ten and Big12 to support it to the point that it improves regular season media values.

(With the Big12 having a little extra reason for supporting it because it makes it very hard to get conference semfinals, which would allow the SEC to offer spots to a Texahoma Four.)

So grow the value of the CFP, but only to the point that it also boosts the media value of the regular season would be the natural consensus position of the P5. Throw the non-Autonomous conferences a bone by upgrading the race for the Access Bowl spot into a race for a championship playoff spot, and you have all ten FBS conferences on board.
(This post was last modified: 07-12-2021 06:39 AM by BruceMcF.)
07-12-2021 06:21 AM
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RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-10-2021 09:54 AM)schmolik Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 09:44 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 03:45 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Question: Why is it okay to have a 24 game playoff in a lower division, but not a 12 game playoff in FBS?

Most FCS schedules are 11 games without a CCG. Playoff teams that reach the title game play 4-5 additional games.

15-16 is less than 16-17.

And people care more if Alabama, Ohio State, etc. play 15-16 than if North Dakota State do. Academics has been brought up as an excuse against expanding the field. Many more of the top academic schools are in FBS as opposed to FCS (the Ivy League doesn't count as FCS because they don't participate in the FCS Championship). FBS is home to Stanford, Northwestern, Duke, Vanderbilt, California, Michigan, etc. They'll care more about "too many games" and "second semester football" than North Dakota State will.

If your not counting Ivy's because they dont participate then why count the FBS schools listed? They dont participate either.
07-12-2021 06:47 AM
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RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-12-2021 06:21 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(07-11-2021 09:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  In CFB at 3-3 with just 12 in the playoffs you're still going to have to have a really great record to make the playoffs. Probably two losses, maybe three at most. That's a very high bar. And at 3-3 you've run out of time.

Except if two of those losses were OOC, you are maybe 2-1 in conference and still very early days in the conference championship hunt. This is the reason why media partners would value the "Top X conference champions" part of the package. And if most of your in-division games are later in the season, a lot of your destiny may still be in your hands, in terms of what losses you can inflict on your division rivals to make sure they also have a conference loss and have the head on head over them.

There will be exceptions sure, just like in the NFC East last year there were teams in the hunt with 5-7 records because the divisions was so bad. Nut the bottom line to me is that 12 teams out of 120 or whatever isn't going to keep mediocre teams in the hunt anything like the NFL system, with 12 out of 32 making it, does. That's still a very exclusive playoff.

Not that keeping mediocre teams in the hunt is a good thing - IMO it isn't, but that's another issue.

As for the NFL playoffs, I think the ratings show that a lot more than just fans of the teams involved are watching. They draw national audiences. The CFP does too, for all of the criticism of it.

The thing I worry about is more local - sure, in CFB like in all sports, attendance tends to vary with performance. With a few exceptions, like schools with 200-game sellout streaks and the like, if Arkansas is having a good year it will draw more fans than if it is having a bad year. But "good" and "bad" have never been dependent on making playoffs. If CFB moves to a pro-leagues style "playoff culture", that could change, and it could work against home attendance, because I suspect more teams can create an impression of having a "good year" in November under the current standards than under a playoff standard.

This happens in the NFL too, but the NFL has a different business model - over 50% of NFL revenues come from TV deals, and that money is basically split evenly across the league. So fluctuations in attendance don't hurt as much (about 15% of NFL revenues are home attendance, the remainder is corporate sponsorships). Even NFL teams with fans staying away in droves and wearing paper bags on their heads in embarrassment are still rolling in dough from the league revenues.

On the other hand, despite the big P5 conference media deals, most CFB programs still rely much more heavily on local sources of revenue. For example, Alabama gets about $45 million from the SEC, but more than $100 million from money linked to game attendance. For G5 schools, the conference revenue is peanuts compared to their overall budgets.
(This post was last modified: 07-12-2021 08:07 AM by quo vadis.)
07-12-2021 07:56 AM
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Post: #72
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-12-2021 07:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  ... The thing I worry about is more local - sure, in CFB like in all sports, attendance tends to vary with performance. With a few exceptions, like schools with 200-game sellout streaks and the like, if Arkansas is having a good year it will draw more fans than if it is having a bad year. But "good" and "bad" have never been dependent on making playoffs. If CFB moves to a pro-leagues style "playoff culture", that could change, and it could work against home attendance, because I suspect more teams can create an impression of having a "good year" in November under the current standards than under a playoff standard. ...

That is a point to consider ... the notion of "going to a bowl" has not lost all of its luster even though it's value has been substantially reduced by all of the "made for TV" bowls.
07-12-2021 09:42 AM
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esayem Offline
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RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
Once again: FBS has more scholarship players than FCS. The two shouldn’t be compared without this in mind.
07-12-2021 10:17 AM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-12-2021 10:17 AM)esayem Wrote:  Once again: FBS has more scholarship players than FCS. The two shouldn’t be compared without this in mind.

The only comparison that people are making is that if it's ok to have FCS football players play a season that ends with a 24-team tournament, it's just as ok to have FBS football players play a season that ends with a 24-team tournament. The number of scholarships is irrelevant to that comparison.
07-12-2021 11:18 AM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-11-2021 08:53 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(07-11-2021 07:07 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-11-2021 06:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  But make it based on that, and then you might have fans dropping out when they realize their 3-3 team isn't going anywhere, like they do in the NFL.

That's not what happens at all.

Last season's Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 7-5 after 12 games and won the Super Bowl.

The 2011 NY Giants were 6-6 after 12 games and won the Super Bowl.

The whole point of the NFL format, like it or not, is that your 3-3 team could easily make the playoffs and might even win it all if they get hot. There are many things to dislike about the NFL, IMO, but they do a great job of selling hope to as many fan bases as possible.

They also have the benefit of the draft, salary caps and free agency to keep the gap between the best and worst teams as small as possible. The only way to come close to that in college football is to have much smaller leagues, each with schools with similar resources compared with their competitors. You can't do it with 130 teams in the same division (FBS). Even the entire P5 as a separate division would be too many schools.

College basketball has the same gaps in resources. Yet college basketball has more parity, and more hope for fans of different teams, than college football even with more than 300 teams in Division I. The last 10 NCAA men's basketball tournaments have had 8 different champions and 29 different Final Four teams. And if you extend it out to the Elite 8 and then the Sweet 16 you would have substantially more teams involved over that period of time.
07-12-2021 11:23 AM
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RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-12-2021 11:18 AM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-12-2021 10:17 AM)esayem Wrote:  Once again: FBS has more scholarship players than FCS. The two shouldn’t be compared without this in mind.

The only comparison that people are making is that if it's ok to have FCS football players play a season that ends with a 24-team tournament, it's just as ok to have FBS football players play a season that ends with a 24-team tournament. The number of scholarships is irrelevant to that comparison.

No, people are comparing the number of total games. In that case, the number of scholarship players is absolutely relevant.
07-12-2021 11:27 AM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-12-2021 11:27 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(07-12-2021 11:18 AM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-12-2021 10:17 AM)esayem Wrote:  Once again: FBS has more scholarship players than FCS. The two shouldn’t be compared without this in mind.

The only comparison that people are making is that if it's ok to have FCS football players play a season that ends with a 24-team tournament, it's just as ok to have FBS football players play a season that ends with a 24-team tournament. The number of scholarships is irrelevant to that comparison.

No, people are comparing the number of total games. In that case, the number of scholarship players is absolutely relevant.

It's not relevant. FBS has a maximum of 85 football players on scholarship, each of which must be a full scholarship; no partials allowed in FBS football. FCS has a limit of 63 full scholarship equivalents that can be distributed and/or split into partials among a maximum of 85 football players.

So, your argument is that partial-scholarship and walk-on football players can safely play more games in a season than full-scholarship football players. We will have to agree to disagree about that.
07-12-2021 11:49 AM
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RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-12-2021 11:23 AM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-11-2021 08:53 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(07-11-2021 07:07 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-11-2021 06:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  But make it based on that, and then you might have fans dropping out when they realize their 3-3 team isn't going anywhere, like they do in the NFL.

That's not what happens at all.

Last season's Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 7-5 after 12 games and won the Super Bowl.

The 2011 NY Giants were 6-6 after 12 games and won the Super Bowl.

The whole point of the NFL format, like it or not, is that your 3-3 team could easily make the playoffs and might even win it all if they get hot. There are many things to dislike about the NFL, IMO, but they do a great job of selling hope to as many fan bases as possible.

They also have the benefit of the draft, salary caps and free agency to keep the gap between the best and worst teams as small as possible. The only way to come close to that in college football is to have much smaller leagues, each with schools with similar resources compared with their competitors. You can't do it with 130 teams in the same division (FBS). Even the entire P5 as a separate division would be too many schools.

College basketball has the same gaps in resources. Yet college basketball has more parity, and more hope for fans of different teams, than college football even with more than 300 teams in Division I. The last 10 NCAA men's basketball tournaments have had 8 different champions and 29 different Final Four teams. And if you extend it out to the Elite 8 and then the Sweet 16 you would have substantially more teams involved over that period of time.

Theres alot less players per team in CBB. 2-3 players can carry a team far. In football you need multiples of that to be very competitive. Probably a good 12-15 or more players. In college hoops theres also a high roster turnover. Mega stars stick around for 1-2 years. If that. Some dont even play a full year and theyre gone.

Thats like saying CFB should have a 48 team tournament, since CBB can do 68 teams without a problem.
07-12-2021 12:04 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #79
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-12-2021 11:23 AM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-11-2021 08:53 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(07-11-2021 07:07 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-11-2021 06:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  But make it based on that, and then you might have fans dropping out when they realize their 3-3 team isn't going anywhere, like they do in the NFL.

That's not what happens at all.

Last season's Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 7-5 after 12 games and won the Super Bowl.

The 2011 NY Giants were 6-6 after 12 games and won the Super Bowl.

The whole point of the NFL format, like it or not, is that your 3-3 team could easily make the playoffs and might even win it all if they get hot. There are many things to dislike about the NFL, IMO, but they do a great job of selling hope to as many fan bases as possible.

They also have the benefit of the draft, salary caps and free agency to keep the gap between the best and worst teams as small as possible. The only way to come close to that in college football is to have much smaller leagues, each with schools with similar resources compared with their competitors. You can't do it with 130 teams in the same division (FBS). Even the entire P5 as a separate division would be too many schools.

College basketball has the same gaps in resources. Yet college basketball has more parity, and more hope for fans of different teams, than college football even with more than 300 teams in Division I. The last 10 NCAA men's basketball tournaments have had 8 different champions and 29 different Final Four teams. And if you extend it out to the Elite 8 and then the Sweet 16 you would have substantially more teams involved over that period of time.

College basketball has a 68-team playoff. And typically, about 40 or so of those teams are from the FBS. So that's 40 out of 130 FBS schools that get in, compared to 12 in the proposed playoff, a much smaller field.

Plus, if you are the P5 conferences, why on earth would you want "more parity"? Parity just means that you lose relative status.

That's the thing some miss when they say "well, the whole pie gets larger so they will be making more than now". Relative money and status is more important than absolute values. E.g., if in my community I have $5million and nobody else has more than $1 million, I'm the Big Kahuna. If someone proposed a new social scheme that would boost my neighbors to $4 million but me to $8 million too, I'd reject that scheme, because even though I'm richer than before, I've lost a lot of relative status and power. Which is really what life is about.

P5 have no interest in seeing those below gain relative power and status, nor should they. Why on earth should Ohio State care if UC - Santa Barbara fans have more hope than they used to? No reason at all, and they'd be dumb to allow their status/power gap to erode for more dollars.

The whole reason the power teams split away from the NCAA TV deal in 1984 was to get away from the parity model of hoops. They have zero reason to return to it.
(This post was last modified: 07-12-2021 12:17 PM by quo vadis.)
07-12-2021 12:16 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #80
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-12-2021 12:16 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(07-12-2021 11:23 AM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-11-2021 08:53 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(07-11-2021 07:07 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-11-2021 06:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  But make it based on that, and then you might have fans dropping out when they realize their 3-3 team isn't going anywhere, like they do in the NFL.

That's not what happens at all.

Last season's Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 7-5 after 12 games and won the Super Bowl.

The 2011 NY Giants were 6-6 after 12 games and won the Super Bowl.

The whole point of the NFL format, like it or not, is that your 3-3 team could easily make the playoffs and might even win it all if they get hot. There are many things to dislike about the NFL, IMO, but they do a great job of selling hope to as many fan bases as possible.

They also have the benefit of the draft, salary caps and free agency to keep the gap between the best and worst teams as small as possible. The only way to come close to that in college football is to have much smaller leagues, each with schools with similar resources compared with their competitors. You can't do it with 130 teams in the same division (FBS). Even the entire P5 as a separate division would be too many schools.

College basketball has the same gaps in resources. Yet college basketball has more parity, and more hope for fans of different teams, than college football even with more than 300 teams in Division I. The last 10 NCAA men's basketball tournaments have had 8 different champions and 29 different Final Four teams. And if you extend it out to the Elite 8 and then the Sweet 16 you would have substantially more teams involved over that period of time.

College basketball has a 68-team playoff. And typically, about 40 or so of those teams are from the FBS. So that's 40 out of 130 FBS schools that get in, compared to 12 in the proposed playoff, a much smaller field.

Plus, if you are the P5 conferences, why on earth would you want "more parity"? Parity just means that you lose relative status.

You're thinking solely in terms of conferences, not individual teams. That's not how presidents and ADs think about these things.

Why does "the SEC" want a 12-team playoff? Because the individual members of the SEC think it will help their own school. TAMU, Auburn, Florida, etc. don't have the goal of putting Alabama in the playoff -- they want to see their own team in the playoff. The limited amount of "more parity" that a 12-team playoff offers will benefit the SEC teams who are not Alabama, the Big Ten teams who are not Ohio State, etc., among others. It's about increasing the number of different teams that are involved.
07-12-2021 12:33 PM
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