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Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-10-2021 02:59 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 11:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the current CFP works just fine. Keep it that way, everything else is just a money-grab that puts more physical pressures on the players.

07-coffee3

The powers-that-be have greatly devalued the 4-team format with the rush of media stating that the 12-team proposal is far superior. They are not going to keep putting the 4-team playoff out there for 5 more years just because they disagree on details or because someone thinks they can get more money by waiting 5 years to take the playoff to the open market.

That was most likely the intent of all of the publicity around the 12-team format, to get people so into it that there would be no turning back.

Remember that time when you could turn on ESPN and hear some great criticism and outcry over the failures of the BCS, but then, in secret, won the contract renewing said system until we got this playoff?

The people aren’t driving this thing. If no consensus is met and you still have a four-team model with a network paying money to show it, that’s what you’ll get.
07-11-2021 10:17 AM
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Native Georgian Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-10-2021 11:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the current CFP works just fine. Keep it that way, everything else is just a money-grab that puts more physical pressures on the players.
QV, I don’t really disagree with any of that. But the words in bold describe the current system compared to what we had 20 years ago. And it describes what we had in 2000, compared to 1980. And so.
07-11-2021 10:27 AM
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Maize Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-10-2021 07:20 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 03:12 PM)Maize Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 03:03 PM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 02:59 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 11:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the current CFP works just fine. Keep it that way, everything else is just a money-grab that puts more physical pressures on the players.

07-coffee3

The powers-that-be have greatly devalued the 4-team format with the rush of media stating that the 12-team proposal is far superior. They are not going to keep putting the 4-team playoff out there for 5 more years just because they disagree on details or because someone thinks they can get more money by waiting 5 years to take the playoff to the open market.

That was most likely the intent of all of the publicity around the 12-team format, to get people so into it that there would be no turning back.

I haven’t watched the 4-team playoff since it’s beginning because there’s never teams that I care about in it. Just like the 2-team format before it.

12-team I’ll probably care more years than not.

The other reason beside gobs of money. By November the majority of College Football Fans had checked out. Now a 7-2 Wisconsin vs a 7-2 Iowa Game would mean something late in the year.

So that must mean CFB TV ratings and attendance typically plunge from November on, right?

Well...in 2019 it kind of did...again ratings and attendance went down Pre Covid-(now that includes other factors as well). But really and this is just my opinion...under the current system if you’re not in the Top 8 in November a lot of fans pretty much checked out. What are you really playing for at that point, a Bowl Game in which many of the stars will opt out to protect themselves from injury in a December/early January Exhibition Game-(Non CFP Game).

But you said it yourself, the change is coming...whether it will be in 2 to 3 years or at the end of the current contract.
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2021 10:58 AM by Maize.)
07-11-2021 10:57 AM
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Maize Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-11-2021 10:27 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 11:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the current CFP works just fine. Keep it that way, everything else is just a money-grab that puts more physical pressures on the players.
QV, I don’t really disagree with any of that. But the words in bold describe the current system compared to what we had 20 years ago. And it describes what we had in 2000, compared to 1980. And so.

This train started with the old Bowl Coalition...now we are the verge of expanded 12 School College Football Playoffs.
07-11-2021 11:00 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-11-2021 10:27 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 11:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the current CFP works just fine. Keep it that way, everything else is just a money-grab that puts more physical pressures on the players.
QV, I don’t really disagree with any of that. But the words in bold describe the current system compared to what we had 20 years ago. And it describes what we had in 2000, compared to 1980. And so.

Yep.
07-11-2021 12:57 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-11-2021 10:57 AM)Maize Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 07:20 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 03:12 PM)Maize Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 03:03 PM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 02:59 PM)Wedge Wrote:  The powers-that-be have greatly devalued the 4-team format with the rush of media stating that the 12-team proposal is far superior. They are not going to keep putting the 4-team playoff out there for 5 more years just because they disagree on details or because someone thinks they can get more money by waiting 5 years to take the playoff to the open market.

That was most likely the intent of all of the publicity around the 12-team format, to get people so into it that there would be no turning back.

I haven’t watched the 4-team playoff since it’s beginning because there’s never teams that I care about in it. Just like the 2-team format before it.

12-team I’ll probably care more years than not.

The other reason beside gobs of money. By November the majority of College Football Fans had checked out. Now a 7-2 Wisconsin vs a 7-2 Iowa Game would mean something late in the year.

So that must mean CFB TV ratings and attendance typically plunge from November on, right?

Well...in 2019 it kind of did...again ratings and attendance went down Pre Covid-(now that includes other factors as well). But really and this is just my opinion...under the current system if you’re not in the Top 8 in November a lot of fans pretty much checked out. What are you really playing for at that point, a Bowl Game in which many of the stars will opt out to protect themselves from injury in a December/early January Exhibition Game-(Non CFP Game).

But you said it yourself, the change is coming...whether it will be in 2 to 3 years or at the end of the current contract.

I don't believe that's so, though I am amenable to persuasion if TV ratings and attendance drops show it.

The reason is, I don't think playoff prospects drive much fan interest to begin with. For example, forget about schools that will be happy to just have a .500 record this year, like my USF - if you are a Boise fan or a Vanderbilt fan or UCF fan or heck, a UCLA or Michigan or FSU fan and you are excited about the upcoming season, is it because of the playoffs? No, it can't be because you know your school has almost zero chance of making the playoffs.

We will see tons of fan interest in CFB this August, and it will come from fan bases 95% of which know their team isn't anywhere near good enough to make the playoffs. So you can't dash hopes that never existed to begin with, IMO.

Kind of perversely, I think CFB could fall in to an NFL-trap. In sports like the NFL, where making the playoffs is everything and the playoffs are broad enough such that basically every fan base goes in to the season with some hope of making them even if you were 3-13 last year, you do see interest falter in teams once it becomes apparent that they aren't making the playoffs. That same thing could happen to CFB with an expanded playoffs, and it could result in a net increase in "November tune-out", because historically, fans bases stayed involved because either there was no playoffs to make so it was never the focus, or in the past 25 years (BCS/CFP) so exclusive that only a few schools really pinned their hopes on them. For the rest, interest stayed high for the rivalry games and the bowl prospects and well just because of school spirit.

But an expanded playoffs could make making the playoffs the thing, as it is in the pros, and that could lead to more fan base tuneouts as those hopes fade.
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2021 01:09 PM by quo vadis.)
07-11-2021 01:02 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-11-2021 08:40 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  On the tie-in situation, it ranges from the simple/obvious/non-controversial where any top 4 Big Ten or Pac-12 champ should get automatically slotted in the Rose Bowl (with preference going to the higher ranked team if both are in the top 4) to the more complex/controversial where you use conference tie-ins for the teams remaining after the first round to slot the quarterfinals (in which case you could very well maintain the traditional Big Ten-Pac-12 matchup in many/most years if those leagues have teams remaining) regardless of seeding. I personally prefer the latter, but I understand that the “seeding purists” have generally ruled the day on playoff discussions over the years.

One thing I think the media types will want is a fixed bracket, because the NCAA Tourney has a fixed bracket and that is very successful ... one thing about being in a business where so much comes down to random combinations of things that people end up liking is the media types do like to copy previous successes.

But I don't have anything against all of the conference champions of conferences with CFP Bowl contracts simply being slotted into their contracted bowl, and if they are in the play-in round, that means they are bracketed into that bowl ... and then place the at-large schools to avoid in-conference quarterfinals and by committee rank.

If the Rose Bowl was PAC-12 & Big Ten, and the other five bowls rotate in a merry 3/2 dance, then you could have the Cotton Bowl as the primary tie-in of the Big12, the Sugar Bowl the primary tie-in of the SEC and the Orange Bowl the primary tie-in of the ACC, the Peach Bowl a secondary tie-in of the ACC and SEC, the Fiesta Bowl a secondary tie-in of the Big12. If the champion has a bye, they are slotted into the bowl, if they are in the first round, they are bracketed into the bowl, if they win through.

SF: Peach / Cotton; QF: SEC Sugar, ACC Orange, Big12 Fiesta
SF: Sugar / Fiesta; QF: SEC Peach, ACC Orange, Big12 Cotton
SF: Orange / Peach: QF: SEC Sugar, Big12 Cotton, ACC Fiesta
SF: Cotton / Sugar: QF: SEC Peach, ACC Orange, Big12 Fiesta
SF: Fiesta / Orange; QF: SEC Sugar, Big12 Cotton, ACC Peach
07-11-2021 01:19 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-11-2021 01:02 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Kind of perversely, I think CFB could fall in to an NFL-trap.

An NFL team that is at .500 with 3 games remaining (now that they play 17) maintains fan interest because they still have a very realistic shot at the playoffs. That's not a trap; that's the ideal to which CFB can aspire but never reach.

Compare that to the current state of college football, in which every team is effectively eliminated from playoff contention the minute they pick up their second loss of the season.

If CFB teams with 2 losses still have a chance to reach the playoff, and some teams with 3 losses still have an outside chance in November, there will be a lot more teams playing November games that TV can sell as meaningful, and a lot more teams who can sell hope to their fans in November and not just in September.
07-11-2021 01:38 PM
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Maize Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-11-2021 01:38 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-11-2021 01:02 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Kind of perversely, I think CFB could fall in to an NFL-trap.

An NFL team that is at .500 with 3 games remaining (now that they play 17) maintains fan interest because they still have a very realistic shot at the playoffs. That's not a trap; that's the ideal to which CFB can aspire but never reach.

Compare that to the current state of college football, in which every team is effectively eliminated from playoff contention the minute they pick up their second loss of the season.

If CFB teams with 2 losses still have a chance to reach the playoff, and some teams with 3 losses still have an outside chance in November, there will be a lot more teams playing November games that TV can sell as meaningful, and a lot more teams who can sell hope to their fans in November and not just in September.

The first bold part is what many that want this is saying...and if I’m not mistaken is what the SEC loves. If I’m not mistaken Sankey wanted 12 schools to get SEC schools more of a shot to win it. JMO most years you will have as many as 3 SEC schools and IMO the SEC is the clear winner in the 12 School proposal.

The second in bold will make those Big Ten and SEC November games even more compelling. Imagine if it was in effect this year in the SEC...Let’s say Alabama has already won the SEC West but yet you have a 10-1 LSU vs. a 10-1 Texas A&M...meanwhile the SEC Title Game is already set with a Undefeated Florida vs Alabama and Oklahoma, Clemson and Ohio State with clear access to the other bids. LSU vs. Texas A&M will be like playing for a Wildcard slot with a Legit shot of winning it.
07-11-2021 01:57 PM
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Post: #50
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-10-2021 03:45 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Question: Why is it okay to have a 24 game playoff in a lower division, but not a 12 game playoff in FBS?

Because the 24 team leagues are pretty much on an even scale.

The FBS group is the P5 and a few pretenders from G5. So you want 33% of the playoff to be littered with G5 teams that play no one all year?
Do you also think First Year Associates at law firms should make the same money as the CEO?
07-11-2021 02:31 PM
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Post: #51
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-10-2021 11:12 AM)Maize Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 11:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the current CFP works just fine. Keep it that way, everything else is just a money-grab that puts more physical pressures on the players.

07-coffee3

You’re in the minority on this and the money is way too enticing to go with the fact that attendance DROPPED to a 25 year low in 2019-(Pre Covid) but the players should have a say in this....07-coffee3
By that logic - 128 team playoff is the best then.
07-11-2021 02:33 PM
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Post: #52
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-10-2021 01:30 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 11:12 AM)Section 200 Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 11:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the current CFP works just fine. Keep it that way, everything else is just a money-grab that puts more physical pressures on the players.

07-coffee3

The current system gets less & less popular each year - fine for you but a slow death for the sport.

What information went into this conclusion? Declining Ratings?

Most sports programming seems to be declining in popularity! The Super Bowl, Finals and World Series have been losing viewership for the past 5-6 year in a row. I believe the wild card round in the NFL lost something like 20% from 2020 to 2021.

“The six games averaged 25.1 million viewers on television and online, which is a 20% drop from last season’s per-game viewership on the first playoff weekend, according to the league and Nielsen. Last year’s four wild-card games, two of which went to overtime, averaged 30.5 million viewers.”

Because the more teams added to playoffs leads to less interest. 1) regular season means nothing, 2) too great a chance that terrible team can win it all (see 2021 Canadiens)
07-11-2021 02:35 PM
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Post: #53
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-10-2021 03:12 PM)Maize Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 03:03 PM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 02:59 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 11:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the current CFP works just fine. Keep it that way, everything else is just a money-grab that puts more physical pressures on the players.

07-coffee3

The powers-that-be have greatly devalued the 4-team format with the rush of media stating that the 12-team proposal is far superior. They are not going to keep putting the 4-team playoff out there for 5 more years just because they disagree on details or because someone thinks they can get more money by waiting 5 years to take the playoff to the open market.

That was most likely the intent of all of the publicity around the 12-team format, to get people so into it that there would be no turning back.

I haven’t watched the 4-team playoff since it’s beginning because there’s never teams that I care about in it. Just like the 2-team format before it.

12-team I’ll probably care more years than not.

The other reason beside gobs of money. By November the majority of College Football Fans had checked out. Now a 7-2 Wisconsin vs a 7-2 Iowa Game would mean something late in the year. Much like the Division/Wild Card races in the NFL.

Plus to me when I saw that Greg Sankey-(SEC), Bob Bowlsby-(Big XII & Texas) and Notre Dame Athletics Director Jack Swarbrick was on the CFP Expansion Sub Committee and the driving force behind it...game over. The SEC Commish and the Big XII Commish are not going to do anything without the approval of those schools Presidents. Those are the true powers minus the Big Ten that control College Football.

Then again have a 128 team playoff, only 2 teams will be.left out. More is always better right?
07-11-2021 02:37 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-11-2021 02:33 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 11:12 AM)Maize Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 11:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the current CFP works just fine. Keep it that way, everything else is just a money-grab that puts more physical pressures on the players.

07-coffee3

You’re in the minority on this and the money is way too enticing to go with the fact that attendance DROPPED to a 25 year low in 2019-(Pre Covid) but the players should have a say in this....07-coffee3
By that logic - 128 team playoff is the best then.

If false dichotomy fallacy is your logic of choice, you betcha!

There's always tradeoffs. Somewhere in between the BCS extreme of trying to guesstimate who are the two best teams in the country and just going straight to the championship game and the NBA system where more than half of the teams go to the playoffs is going to be a point that generates the most interest. And since this is not a science, there's going to be a lot of fumbling around to try to find out where that balance point is.
07-11-2021 03:11 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-10-2021 09:53 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(07-10-2021 09:44 AM)esayem Wrote:  Teams playing 17 games will include at least one powderpuff where the starters hardly play.

So will the playoff bound FCS schools, so if FCS in most years max out at 16, and most championship game schools only play 15, the 17 game number is still going to be waved around.

What the FCS does is irrelevant. FBS programs have more scholarships. Much ado about nothing.
07-11-2021 03:24 PM
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Post: #56
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-11-2021 08:15 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  Yes, but is the NYD date sacrosanct for anybody except the Rose Bowl? Obviously one weeknight SF is possible the Monday of Week 18, since the NFL completes the final regular season play on Sunday, so two QF bowls are always possible on a non-weekend NYD, it's just that if they are the Sugar and Rose Bowl, there is no way to have any overall seeded bracket without one of those two free to take any school, just as there is no way to have an overall seeded bracket with the Rose Bowl always getting available PAC-12 and Big Ten champions. Then the other two Quarterfinals are the Saturday after Christmas, and their semi-final is Saturday of Week 18.

When NYD is Sunday, the two QF on NYE would have their SF the Saturday of NFL Wk18, and the two QF on the Monday after NYD would have their SF on Monday of NFL Wk18.

Eh, I don't see giving a SF winner an extra two days of rest before the Final. SFs should be played the same day. Either the Rose is a QF on the 1st falling on a Saturday, or they switch dates. Otherwise take themselves out of the rotation entirely and field two three loss teams from the B1G and PAC or whomever is left from the scraps 6/7 years. Tough to swallow that one if I'm running things in Pasadena. I know the fans are in denial now, but the proposal is going to be killed by them when all is said and done. And none of this addresses the travel concerns I've touched upon in previous threads.
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2021 05:07 PM by RUScarlets.)
07-11-2021 05:02 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-10-2021 03:15 AM)Alanda Wrote:  A lot of this has already been discussed, but I thought this part was interesting.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...t-fallout/

Quote:Will the players benefit ... at all?

There's also significant health and safety issues to consider. The possibility of two teams playing 17 games must be disconcerting for a game that has battled significant medical issues over the last two decades. More than 30 players have died in that timeframe, mostly from heat exertion during practice.

One CFP source said as many as half the 12-team field could play no additional games (assuming six teams do not play in a conference championship game and lose in the first round).

For a team to play the maximum of 17 games, it would have to participate in its league championship game, a first-round playoff game and reach the national championship.

"That's such an unlikely occurrence," one Power Five AD said. "We could go a decade with that not happening."

With more games and more revenue comes increased responsibility. At $1 billion per season in an expanded playoff, an extra $12 million would pour into the coffers of Power Five athletic departments (assuming 78% of the revenue continues to be distributed to teams in those conferences).

Will that lead to enhanced medical coverage from institutions or conferences for athletes, some of whom will put their bodies on the line nearly as often as professionals? Perhaps it results in additional funds going into the pockets of athletes in the CFP beyond what is now possible through name, image and likeness rights?

"Can [CFP participants], if they graduate, walk away with an additional $20,000 or $30,000?" another Power Five AD suggested. "I know the CFP committee is talking about those kinds of things. … At the end of their careers, they get a check for whatever. Those kinds of things are the type of things we're going to have to consider."

Wouldn't it be nice if, out of the increased CFP revenues, every scholarship football player in FBS received $10K for every season they play, plus a $10K bonus if they graduate within five years? That would be a good way to sell the expanded playoffs to university presidents in the current political climate.
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2021 06:53 PM by ken d.)
07-11-2021 05:16 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
I believe the sweet spot in American sports is that the last at large should be X games over .500, where X is half a month’s worth or games.

Now, 32 teams may make the largest number of teams competitive for the playoff, but it will also do what it does in the other sports... turn the playoff into a second season. If there were some way to incorporate Florida-Florida State, USC-Notre Dame, Pittsburgh-West Virginia, and others into the post-season you’d appease traditionalists too. That, however, seems like an unobtainable balance.
07-11-2021 06:01 PM
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Post: #59
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-11-2021 01:38 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-11-2021 01:02 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Kind of perversely, I think CFB could fall in to an NFL-trap.

An NFL team that is at .500 with 3 games remaining (now that they play 17) maintains fan interest because they still have a very realistic shot at the playoffs. That's not a trap; that's the ideal to which CFB can aspire but never reach.

Compare that to the current state of college football, in which every team is effectively eliminated from playoff contention the minute they pick up their second loss of the season.

If CFB teams with 2 losses still have a chance to reach the playoff, and some teams with 3 losses still have an outside chance in November, there will be a lot more teams playing November games that TV can sell as meaningful, and a lot more teams who can sell hope to their fans in November and not just in September.

CFB isn't the NFL. CFB has been popular for a century without playoffs and with the tiniest of playoffs. Fans care about their school and its teams and want to see them compete regardless of playoffs. We know that because it's been that way for a century+.

The NFL would not have been popular at all without playoffs, as the only reason for the teams existence is to compete for a league championship. Also, because the franchises are creations of the league, all fans are not only "Saints" fans or "Patriots" fans, they are "NFL fans", so they keep watching the playoff games even when their teams aren't in them. So it doesn't matter that in week 14 there are only 50,000 people at the Redskins games instead of 80,000 at the start of the year, because the media money is massive anyway.

I think CFB runs a grave risk if it trades its culture, which has never been playoffs-focused, for a playoffs-focused approach. Because people don't relate to their schools in that same kind of mercenary way that NFL fans relate to their NFL teams. As of now, fans care about their college teams throughout the season because playoffs are a minor part of the overall experience. Ole Miss fans care about Ole Miss all season even though Ole Miss almost never has any chance to make the BCS or the CFP. It's not based on that.

But make it based on that, and then you might have fans dropping out when they realize their 3-3 team isn't going anywhere, like they do in the NFL.
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2021 06:14 PM by quo vadis.)
07-11-2021 06:13 PM
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Post: #60
RE: Dodd: CFP expansion is complicated and could get messy
(07-11-2021 06:13 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  But make it based on that, and then you might have fans dropping out when they realize their 3-3 team isn't going anywhere, like they do in the NFL.

That's not what happens at all.

Last season's Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 7-5 after 12 games and won the Super Bowl.

The 2011 NY Giants were 6-6 after 12 games and won the Super Bowl.

The whole point of the NFL format, like it or not, is that your 3-3 team could easily make the playoffs and might even win it all if they get hot. There are many things to dislike about the NFL, IMO, but they do a great job of selling hope to as many fan bases as possible.
07-11-2021 07:07 PM
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