(07-07-2021 08:00 PM)Hallcity Wrote: (07-07-2021 07:41 PM)ChrisLords Wrote: (07-07-2021 06:58 PM)Hallcity Wrote: (07-06-2021 07:42 PM)JRsec Wrote: (07-06-2021 07:36 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote: The cost to join and keep UC in the ACC is somewhat lower than the cost of WVU. That said, if it was a no-brainer it would have happened already. I'd call it a marginal add - might boost payouts a few dollars thanks to ACCN carriage in Ohio and reopening the TV contract - but that's about it.
SEC and ACC fans need to get ready for the death of carriage fees. The wing flaps of vultures settling in the trees around the conference networks can already be heard. The future will be in competitive play between recognized brands with ad money going out to conferences for lesser matchups based on actual viewers in a stream.
The ACC needs to add high content value schools or at least strong regional brands.
Why? Why, are carriage fees dying? Are people losing their interest in live sports? You can’t say crap like this as if it’s self-evident. Traditional cable may be slowly dying but people will still pay one way or another to watch the ACC network.
They're not dying, they're going to be reduced because there won't be as many non-sports fans subsidizing the viewing habits of sport watchers. The SECN and ACCN will always be packaged with Disney and the ESPN channels, so they will always be receiving fees from cable companies and streaming services that have the Disney bundle but there will be people that don't want what Disney has to sell and will buy other more paired down streaming services.
Also, the number of people that watch sports regularly are dropping off because the baby boomers are dying off and not as many Millennials and Gen Zers watch sports.
Disney will be making less money for their sports properties but that won't effect conferences with long term contracts for 15-20 years.
Again, you confidently make predictions about the future based solely upon nothing more than your own conjecture. Disney will make every effort to tie the ACCN to its other streams because they can and because they have the economic incentive to do so. Do you really think Disney will lose its market power?
Do you really think Comcast can stand up to Disney this fall? Watch Comcast knuckle under and accept the ACCN because they have no choice. That’s not changing anytime soon.
The SECN's first year was a partial and SEC schools netted 3 million each for 5 months worth of subscriptions. In its first full year it made over 7 million for each school. Year 3 it peaked between 9 to 10 million. Then in 2015 it started down a tad, in 2016 down about 24% with cord cutting. That was the year, or possibly 2017, that SNL Kagan reported that the BTN lost 25% of its total value due to cord cutting. By the 2018 season's numbers being released and escalators in contracts set as constants it was apparent the SECN's value had dropped another 2 million because the SEC payouts were virtually stagnant.
When the proposed ACCN did not launch ESPN paid each ACC school 2 million for not having a network.
I would say that the SECN is likely worth around 5 million a year now. ESPN+ has been launched because the value of televising T3 material (think South Carolina vs Citadel) has little draw even on the SECN which gets the worst games same as the ACCN will get after the pump up games of year 1, which the SECN also had.
Then there are advertisers who are tired of paying ad rates for the SECN based on subscriptions when only a fraction of those tune in for USC/Citadel or Auburn/Chattanooga and I can't blame them. The advertisers will pay by the viewer. ESPN's conference networks' non sports programming (Finebaum) are likely to become available on ESPN+ in the not too distant future. If conference networks are to survive they'll need much better games and I just don't see ESPN sacrificing solid T2 material to prop up conference networks. Those will continue to air on ESPNU and ESPN2 where good ratings earn more than a game on the SECN and ACCN.
So it's not an opinion out of thin air and without backing, but rather an observation based on the declining popularity and profitability of conference networks and the understandable suspicion that a for profit corporation (ESPN) has pressed for more conference games out of a desire for more prosperous games now that the market footprint pay model is already dead for T1 and T2 chosen games and the profitability of conference networks based on a bygone pay model which ESPN shares in equally is fading. At least on ESPN+ the games and programs stand on there own merit and the network trims its losses.
Now if conferences want to save them then they need exclusive games on them that people want to see.
What's more is Boomers (who watch and attend in high percentages) have begun a die out that will render them statistically insignificant by 2036. Xer's are strong with college sports but the two trailing generations are not, and their levels of participation in grade school years is low.
Hence the push for content only games which can draw a national or very strong regional interest. The push for an upper tier which has been in talk since the early 70's now has impetus. Make it exclusive, reward the players, and restrict by upper tier the number of schools involved nationwide to a manageable number (56-64) and you still have enough talent funneled into it to keep it viable for a thinning number of enthusiasts.
With NIL and Stipends everything will be about money and our schools and conferences will knuckle under for national exposure and increased enrollment which is now being used to subsidize declining grant revenue due to a massive national debt and to avoid being too reliant upon corporate grants which frequently have strings attached.
There will be massive changes in higher education as the paradigm shift to a Boomer-less world occurs (less private donations and less ticket demand).
And the proposed playoff expansion for triple the payout is mere soft-soaping for the transition to a leaner more profitable college football upper tier, at least for those who can afford to participate.
RE: Another random thought: OK State to the ACC