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If Aresco locked in suck paltry TV revenue for 10 more years what makes anyone think the network will say "Oh your league is doing great we will redo the deal"?

More like they think "Those dumb schmucks are stuck getting peanuts for 10 more years". We need to take Aresco to dinner more.

(06-24-2021 01:42 PM)doss2 Wrote:  If Aresco locked in suck paltry TV revenue for 10 more years what makes anyone think the network will say "Oh your league is doing great we will redo the deal"?

More like they think "Those dumb schmucks are stuck getting peanuts for 10 more years". We need to take Aresco to dinner more.

This has been a sore point for me over the years on the AAC board. The logic over there says:
"The Conference [AAC] is getting underpaid/undervalued (usually for "reasons") and when ESPN/ABC next negotiates the contract they will inevitably pay us what 'we're really worth'."

The trouble is that it is the BUYER, and NOT the seller who really sets the price. If you're selling a house or a car, you can put whatever pricetag you want on it. But if no buyer wants to pay "more" for your product, then what in effect you get, is NOTHING. It's ESPN/ABC who decides what this (or any) conference "is worth." And simply saying, "Well...they're 'underpaying us'!" doesn't change that fact.

Why would ESPN enter into the MIDDLE of a contract and say, "You know what? We're going to pay you MORE!" If the AAC is "over-performing" for ESPN, then that's ESPN's gain. On the other hand, it is somewhat more reasonable for ESPN to seek a renegotiation in the middle of a contract to pay LESS. Yes, the Conference might say, "We have a contract here!" but if ESPN goes bankrupt all contracts become null-and-void; something is always worth more than nothing and a bird-in-the-hand is worth more than one in the bush.

The ONLY way I see the AAC contract going "UP" in the middle of a term is if the foundation of the conference is substantially changed. A break-up or a consolidation with the MW. Perhaps BYU coming on board. Something in the base calculus of the conference make-up would have to change.

And, of course, BYU is only "coming on board" if ESPN manages to make the deal sweet enough. It was ESPN that really dictated the death of the Big East and the expansion of the ACC. If ESPN wants BYU "in the conference" then they will find a way to make it happen. Likewise, if Fox wanted Cincinnati in the B12, we'd be there right now. To hell with Texas and Oklahoma...it was Fox that stepped up and said "We'll pay you more NOT to add two teams!" And suddenly the B12 is making rumblings about UC again...it's a message to Fox ahead of the next media contract.

End-of-rant...

That "Look In" part of the deal always sounded like a one way deal to me.

(06-24-2021 10:13 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  The brutal truth is that I think this situation is akin to climbing Mt. Everest. Above a certain level (altitude) you enter the "Death Zone." Prolonged survival in the Death Zone is possible only with supplemental oxygen; without the O2 you are dying.

The FBS has become that Death Zone. The "Power 5" conferences have an unlimited supply of bottled O2...at least for now. The non-Power conferences do not. It's a pure and simple calculus. CUSA, the MAC, the Sunbelt...they are at the highest risk and will be the first to die. The MW and the AAC are in better shape, but death is most certain unless we get some of that O2. But don't kid yourself...we are not surviving at this level, we're just dying at a somewhat slower rate.

I'm not really sure what we can actually do about it, but if we're reconciled to "not being part" of the Power Conferences, then enjoy the view from (almost) the top of Everest.

A division has occurred in NCAA-D1 "FBS" football. Those not in the "Power" division have been relegated to a lower subdivision...we just don't know it yet.

Conference revenue is just one part of the pie. The top-10 programs have a bigger financial advantage over their conference mates than Purdue, Rutgers, Pitt, WVU, etc have over UC.

Ohio State is $100 million above Rutgers, Purdue, Maryland, and Illinois.

Texas is $100 million above every Big 12 school except Oklahoma (47m above) and Kansas (94m above).

Texas A&M is $100 million above Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and Missouri.

(06-24-2021 03:21 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(06-24-2021 01:42 PM)doss2 Wrote:  If Aresco locked in suck paltry TV revenue for 10 more years what makes anyone think the network will say "Oh your league is doing great we will redo the deal"?

More like they think "Those dumb schmucks are stuck getting peanuts for 10 more years". We need to take Aresco to dinner more.

This has been a sore point for me over the years on the AAC board. The logic over there says:
"The Conference [AAC] is getting underpaid/undervalued (usually for "reasons") and when ESPN/ABC next negotiates the contract they will inevitably pay us what 'we're really worth'."

The trouble is that it is the BUYER, and NOT the seller who really sets the price. If you're selling a house or a car, you can put whatever pricetag you want on it. But if no buyer wants to pay "more" for your product, then what in effect you get, is NOTHING. It's ESPN/ABC who decides what this (or any) conference "is worth." And simply saying, "Well...they're 'underpaying us'!" doesn't change that fact.

Why would ESPN enter into the MIDDLE of a contract and say, "You know what? We're going to pay you MORE!" If the AAC is "over-performing" for ESPN, then that's ESPN's gain. On the other hand, it is somewhat more reasonable for ESPN to seek a renegotiation in the middle of a contract to pay LESS. Yes, the Conference might say, "We have a contract here!" but if ESPN goes bankrupt all contracts become null-and-void; something is always worth more than nothing and a bird-in-the-hand is worth more than one in the bush.

The ONLY way I see the AAC contract going "UP" in the middle of a term is if the foundation of the conference is substantially changed. A break-up or a consolidation with the MW. Perhaps BYU coming on board. Something in the base calculus of the conference make-up would have to change.

And, of course, BYU is only "coming on board" if ESPN manages to make the deal sweet enough. It was ESPN that really dictated the death of the Big East and the expansion of the ACC. If ESPN wants BYU "in the conference" then they will find a way to make it happen. Likewise, if Fox wanted Cincinnati in the B12, we'd be there right now. To hell with Texas and Oklahoma...it was Fox that stepped up and said "We'll pay you more NOT to add two teams!" And suddenly the B12 is making rumblings about UC again...it's a message to Fox ahead of the next media contract.

End-of-rant...

Another potential opportunity for AAC revenue growth could be if ESPN wants to extend their contract with the AAC to get them locked in longer than 10 years. They could offer the AAC an increase in the remaining years if they agree to a contract extension.

(06-24-2021 03:21 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(06-24-2021 01:42 PM)doss2 Wrote:  If Aresco locked in suck paltry TV revenue for 10 more years what makes anyone think the network will say "Oh your league is doing great we will redo the deal"?

More like they think "Those dumb schmucks are stuck getting peanuts for 10 more years". We need to take Aresco to dinner more.

This has been a sore point for me over the years on the AAC board. The logic over there says:
"The Conference [AAC] is getting underpaid/undervalued (usually for "reasons") and when ESPN/ABC next negotiates the contract they will inevitably pay us what 'we're really worth'."

The trouble is that it is the BUYER, and NOT the seller who really sets the price. If you're selling a house or a car, you can put whatever pricetag you want on it. But if no buyer wants to pay "more" for your product, then what in effect you get, is NOTHING. It's ESPN/ABC who decides what this (or any) conference "is worth." And simply saying, "Well...they're 'underpaying us'!" doesn't change that fact.

Why would ESPN enter into the MIDDLE of a contract and say, "You know what? We're going to pay you MORE!" If the AAC is "over-performing" for ESPN, then that's ESPN's gain. On the other hand, it is somewhat more reasonable for ESPN to seek a renegotiation in the middle of a contract to pay LESS. Yes, the Conference might say, "We have a contract here!" but if ESPN goes bankrupt all contracts become null-and-void; something is always worth more than nothing and a bird-in-the-hand is worth more than one in the bush.

The ONLY way I see the AAC contract going "UP" in the middle of a term is if the foundation of the conference is substantially changed. A break-up or a consolidation with the MW. Perhaps BYU coming on board. Something in the base calculus of the conference make-up would have to change.

And, of course, BYU is only "coming on board" if ESPN manages to make the deal sweet enough. It was ESPN that really dictated the death of the Big East and the expansion of the ACC. If ESPN wants BYU "in the conference" then they will find a way to make it happen. Likewise, if Fox wanted Cincinnati in the B12, we'd be there right now. To hell with Texas and Oklahoma...it was Fox that stepped up and said "We'll pay you more NOT to add two teams!" And suddenly the B12 is making rumblings about UC again...it's a message to Fox ahead of the next media contract.

End-of-rant...

Bolded, I agree this is the only way we'll see an increase, even if the AAC is suddenly given an automatic bid in a 12 team CFP. As has been discussed over several years, the top of this conference is really solid and P5 competitive. The bottom isn't even G5 competitive at times and attendance and interest in some of those markets is dismal.

I think Aresco did the best he could given the totality of this conference's membership. Put BYU in the mix and that changes somewhat.

(06-25-2021 07:15 AM)nachoman91 Wrote:  

(06-24-2021 03:21 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(06-24-2021 01:42 PM)doss2 Wrote:  If Aresco locked in suck paltry TV revenue for 10 more years what makes anyone think the network will say "Oh your league is doing great we will redo the deal"?

More like they think "Those dumb schmucks are stuck getting peanuts for 10 more years". We need to take Aresco to dinner more.

This has been a sore point for me over the years on the AAC board. The logic over there says:
"The Conference [AAC] is getting underpaid/undervalued (usually for "reasons") and when ESPN/ABC next negotiates the contract they will inevitably pay us what 'we're really worth'."

The trouble is that it is the BUYER, and NOT the seller who really sets the price. If you're selling a house or a car, you can put whatever pricetag you want on it. But if no buyer wants to pay "more" for your product, then what in effect you get, is NOTHING. It's ESPN/ABC who decides what this (or any) conference "is worth." And simply saying, "Well...they're 'underpaying us'!" doesn't change that fact.

Why would ESPN enter into the MIDDLE of a contract and say, "You know what? We're going to pay you MORE!" If the AAC is "over-performing" for ESPN, then that's ESPN's gain. On the other hand, it is somewhat more reasonable for ESPN to seek a renegotiation in the middle of a contract to pay LESS. Yes, the Conference might say, "We have a contract here!" but if ESPN goes bankrupt all contracts become null-and-void; something is always worth more than nothing and a bird-in-the-hand is worth more than one in the bush.

The ONLY way I see the AAC contract going "UP" in the middle of a term is if the foundation of the conference is substantially changed. A break-up or a consolidation with the MW. Perhaps BYU coming on board. Something in the base calculus of the conference make-up would have to change.

And, of course, BYU is only "coming on board" if ESPN manages to make the deal sweet enough. It was ESPN that really dictated the death of the Big East and the expansion of the ACC. If ESPN wants BYU "in the conference" then they will find a way to make it happen. Likewise, if Fox wanted Cincinnati in the B12, we'd be there right now. To hell with Texas and Oklahoma...it was Fox that stepped up and said "We'll pay you more NOT to add two teams!" And suddenly the B12 is making rumblings about UC again...it's a message to Fox ahead of the next media contract.

End-of-rant...

Another potential opportunity for AAC revenue growth could be if ESPN wants to extend their contract with the AAC to get them locked in longer than 10 years. They could offer the AAC an increase in the remaining years if they agree to a contract extension.

True. But there really is no need for ESPN to do that. In fact, given the instability in the market due to streaming, cord-cutting, and technology in general, extending the contract is probably not all that wise (on ESPN's part). And that's not even counting the unknowns of what the college football landscape looks like over the next decade.

(06-24-2021 10:13 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  The brutal truth is that I think this situation is akin to climbing Mt. Everest. Above a certain level (altitude) you enter the "Death Zone." Prolonged survival in the Death Zone is possible only with supplemental oxygen; without the O2 you are dying.

The FBS has become that Death Zone. The "Power 5" conferences have an unlimited supply of bottled O2...at least for now. The non-Power conferences do not. It's a pure and simple calculus. CUSA, the MAC, the Sunbelt...they are at the highest risk and will be the first to die. The MW and the AAC are in better shape, but death is most certain unless we get some of that O2. But don't kid yourself...we are not surviving at this level, we're just dying at a somewhat slower rate.

I'm not really sure what we can actually do about it, but if we're reconciled to "not being part" of the Power Conferences, then enjoy the view from (almost) the top of Everest.

A division has occurred in NCAA-D1 "FBS" football. Those not in the "Power" division have been relegated to a lower subdivision...we just don't know it yet.

Even being in a Cartel conference does not guarantee easy survival. Didn't a bunch of Cartel schools eliminate programs last year to bolster fball and bball? Stanford cut a long list of nonrevenue sports and I think Minn did the same. I know at one point Wisc admin was complaining about financial survival. The last two examples are Mediocre 10 schools, who are flush with cash.

(06-25-2021 09:23 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  True. But there really is no need for ESPN to do that. In fact, given the instability in the market due to streaming, cord-cutting, and technology in general, extending the contract is probably not all that wise (on ESPN's part). And that's not even counting the unknowns of what the college football landscape looks like over the next decade.

Yup. Throw in financial impacts from COVID too. Over on the conference board it was mentioned the B12 approached ESPN/FOX about early, preemptive negotiations for a new tv contract even though the current one still has four years remaining. They were told sorry but you're locked in for now and there's too much instability in the market to preemptively negotiate a new deal.

(06-24-2021 10:13 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  The brutal truth is that I think this situation is akin to climbing Mt. Everest. Above a certain level (altitude) you enter the "Death Zone." Prolonged survival in the Death Zone is possible only with supplemental oxygen; without the O2 you are dying.

The FBS has become that Death Zone. The "Power 5" conferences have an unlimited supply of bottled O2...at least for now. The non-Power conferences do not. It's a pure and simple calculus. CUSA, the MAC, the Sunbelt...they are at the highest risk and will be the first to die. The MW and the AAC are in better shape, but death is most certain unless we get some of that O2. But don't kid yourself...we are not surviving at this level, we're just dying at a somewhat slower rate.

I'm not really sure what we can actually do about it, but if we're reconciled to "not being part" of the Power Conferences, then enjoy the view from (almost) the top of Everest.

A division has occurred in NCAA-D1 "FBS" football. Those not in the "Power" division have been relegated to a lower subdivision...we just don't know it yet.

Unfortunately there is much truth to your post. I do think the Big 12 may expand to 12 if the other current members can get 8 votes but I doubt any G5 program will be at the top of the list.

(06-26-2021 04:57 PM)Rob3338 Wrote:  

(06-24-2021 10:13 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  The brutal truth is that I think this situation is akin to climbing Mt. Everest. Above a certain level (altitude) you enter the "Death Zone." Prolonged survival in the Death Zone is possible only with supplemental oxygen; without the O2 you are dying.

The FBS has become that Death Zone. The "Power 5" conferences have an unlimited supply of bottled O2...at least for now. The non-Power conferences do not. It's a pure and simple calculus. CUSA, the MAC, the Sunbelt...they are at the highest risk and will be the first to die. The MW and the AAC are in better shape, but death is most certain unless we get some of that O2. But don't kid yourself...we are not surviving at this level, we're just dying at a somewhat slower rate.

I'm not really sure what we can actually do about it, but if we're reconciled to "not being part" of the Power Conferences, then enjoy the view from (almost) the top of Everest.

A division has occurred in NCAA-D1 "FBS" football. Those not in the "Power" division have been relegated to a lower subdivision...we just don't know it yet.

Unfortunately there is much truth to your post. I do think the Big 12 may expand to 12 if the other current members can get 8 votes but I doubt any G5 program will be at the top of the list.

You say "I doubt any G5 program will be at the top of the list." That would imply the new members would be P5 or Indy. Indy would not be ND. Would it be BYU?

What P5 would leave a current P5 conference? Four teams left which were:
CO,MO,TAM,NB.

Tell me which would give up the SEC, B10 or P12 membership and why?

(06-26-2021 08:45 PM)doss2 Wrote:  

(06-26-2021 04:57 PM)Rob3338 Wrote:  

(06-24-2021 10:13 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  The brutal truth is that I think this situation is akin to climbing Mt. Everest. Above a certain level (altitude) you enter the "Death Zone." Prolonged survival in the Death Zone is possible only with supplemental oxygen; without the O2 you are dying.

The FBS has become that Death Zone. The "Power 5" conferences have an unlimited supply of bottled O2...at least for now. The non-Power conferences do not. It's a pure and simple calculus. CUSA, the MAC, the Sunbelt...they are at the highest risk and will be the first to die. The MW and the AAC are in better shape, but death is most certain unless we get some of that O2. But don't kid yourself...we are not surviving at this level, we're just dying at a somewhat slower rate.

I'm not really sure what we can actually do about it, but if we're reconciled to "not being part" of the Power Conferences, then enjoy the view from (almost) the top of Everest.

A division has occurred in NCAA-D1 "FBS" football. Those not in the "Power" division have been relegated to a lower subdivision...we just don't know it yet.

Unfortunately there is much truth to your post. I do think the Big 12 may expand to 12 if the other current members can get 8 votes but I doubt any G5 program will be at the top of the list.

You say "I doubt any G5 program will be at the top of the list." That would imply the new members would be P5 or Indy. Indy would not be ND. Would it be BYU?

What P5 would leave a current P5 conference? Four teams left which were:
CO,MO,TAM,NB.

Tell me which would give up the SEC, B10 or P12 membership and why?

I was considering BYU or ND first and foremost. As to what P5 would leave a current P5 conference I would consider Iowa State wanting to leave the B12 however I doubt anyone in an eastern conference wanting them. Syracuse and Pitt are in much the same situation. The one P5 former powerhouse which has said they would consider or even desire leaving the P12 is USC. They are very unhappy with the P12.

(06-29-2021 07:20 AM)Rob3338 Wrote:  

(06-26-2021 08:45 PM)doss2 Wrote:  

(06-26-2021 04:57 PM)Rob3338 Wrote:  

(06-24-2021 10:13 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  The brutal truth is that I think this situation is akin to climbing Mt. Everest. Above a certain level (altitude) you enter the "Death Zone." Prolonged survival in the Death Zone is possible only with supplemental oxygen; without the O2 you are dying.

The FBS has become that Death Zone. The "Power 5" conferences have an unlimited supply of bottled O2...at least for now. The non-Power conferences do not. It's a pure and simple calculus. CUSA, the MAC, the Sunbelt...they are at the highest risk and will be the first to die. The MW and the AAC are in better shape, but death is most certain unless we get some of that O2. But don't kid yourself...we are not surviving at this level, we're just dying at a somewhat slower rate.

I'm not really sure what we can actually do about it, but if we're reconciled to "not being part" of the Power Conferences, then enjoy the view from (almost) the top of Everest.

A division has occurred in NCAA-D1 "FBS" football. Those not in the "Power" division have been relegated to a lower subdivision...we just don't know it yet.

Unfortunately there is much truth to your post. I do think the Big 12 may expand to 12 if the other current members can get 8 votes but I doubt any G5 program will be at the top of the list.

You say "I doubt any G5 program will be at the top of the list." That would imply the new members would be P5 or Indy. Indy would not be ND. Would it be BYU?

What P5 would leave a current P5 conference? Four teams left which were:
CO,MO,TAM,NB.

Tell me which would give up the SEC, B10 or P12 membership and why?

I was considering BYU or ND first and foremost. As to what P5 would leave a current P5 conference I would consider Iowa State wanting to leave the B12 however I doubt anyone in an eastern conference wanting them. Syracuse and Pitt are in much the same situation. The one P5 former powerhouse which has said they would consider or even desire leaving the P12 is USC. They are very unhappy with the P12.

The b12 have really painted themselves into a corner. Of course they are getting lucrative p5 money but having something like 1/3rd of their conference in the state of TX with UT holding an overwhelming amount of influence in conference matters makes them an unattractive a p5 option. Couple that with some already difficult travel locations (Manhattan, KS, Lubbock, TX, Stillwater, OK) and i can't see them attracting other p5 institutions. On paper they don't present any sort of upgrade in any of the money sports. if they aren't willing to take cream of the crop g5s then they really have no other moves.

(06-26-2021 08:45 PM)doss2 Wrote:  

(06-26-2021 04:57 PM)Rob3338 Wrote:  

(06-24-2021 10:13 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  The brutal truth is that I think this situation is akin to climbing Mt. Everest. Above a certain level (altitude) you enter the "Death Zone." Prolonged survival in the Death Zone is possible only with supplemental oxygen; without the O2 you are dying.

The FBS has become that Death Zone. The "Power 5" conferences have an unlimited supply of bottled O2...at least for now. The non-Power conferences do not. It's a pure and simple calculus. CUSA, the MAC, the Sunbelt...they are at the highest risk and will be the first to die. The MW and the AAC are in better shape, but death is most certain unless we get some of that O2. But don't kid yourself...we are not surviving at this level, we're just dying at a somewhat slower rate.

I'm not really sure what we can actually do about it, but if we're reconciled to "not being part" of the Power Conferences, then enjoy the view from (almost) the top of Everest.

A division has occurred in NCAA-D1 "FBS" football. Those not in the "Power" division have been relegated to a lower subdivision...we just don't know it yet.

Unfortunately there is much truth to your post. I do think the Big 12 may expand to 12 if the other current members can get 8 votes but I doubt any G5 program will be at the top of the list.

You say "I doubt any G5 program will be at the top of the list." That would imply the new members would be P5 or Indy. Indy would not be ND. Would it be BYU?

What P5 would leave a current P5 conference? Four teams left which were:
CO,MO,TAM,NB.

Tell me which would give up the SEC, B10 or P12 membership and why?

I could see schools leaving the P12. They are only paying their schools ~$35M/year and nobody is watching the P12 network. USC and UCLA could very easily slide into the P12 and increase their contract to $50M per team.

(06-29-2021 03:48 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(06-26-2021 08:45 PM)doss2 Wrote:  

(06-26-2021 04:57 PM)Rob3338 Wrote:  

(06-24-2021 10:13 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  The brutal truth is that I think this situation is akin to climbing Mt. Everest. Above a certain level (altitude) you enter the "Death Zone." Prolonged survival in the Death Zone is possible only with supplemental oxygen; without the O2 you are dying.

The FBS has become that Death Zone. The "Power 5" conferences have an unlimited supply of bottled O2...at least for now. The non-Power conferences do not. It's a pure and simple calculus. CUSA, the MAC, the Sunbelt...they are at the highest risk and will be the first to die. The MW and the AAC are in better shape, but death is most certain unless we get some of that O2. But don't kid yourself...we are not surviving at this level, we're just dying at a somewhat slower rate.

I'm not really sure what we can actually do about it, but if we're reconciled to "not being part" of the Power Conferences, then enjoy the view from (almost) the top of Everest.

A division has occurred in NCAA-D1 "FBS" football. Those not in the "Power" division have been relegated to a lower subdivision...we just don't know it yet.

Unfortunately there is much truth to your post. I do think the Big 12 may expand to 12 if the other current members can get 8 votes but I doubt any G5 program will be at the top of the list.

You say "I doubt any G5 program will be at the top of the list." That would imply the new members would be P5 or Indy. Indy would not be ND. Would it be BYU?

What P5 would leave a current P5 conference? Four teams left which were:
CO,MO,TAM,NB.

Tell me which would give up the SEC, B10 or P12 membership and why?

I could see schools leaving the P12. They are only paying their schools ~$35M/year and nobody is watching the P12 network. USC and UCLA could very easily slide into the P12 and increase their contract to $50M per team.

You say " USC and UCLA could very easily slide into the P12 and increase their contract to $50M per team."

Last I heard USC and UCLA were already in the P12. DAH!

(06-29-2021 06:28 PM)doss2 Wrote:  

(06-29-2021 03:48 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(06-26-2021 08:45 PM)doss2 Wrote:  

(06-26-2021 04:57 PM)Rob3338 Wrote:  

(06-24-2021 10:13 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  The brutal truth is that I think this situation is akin to climbing Mt. Everest. Above a certain level (altitude) you enter the "Death Zone." Prolonged survival in the Death Zone is possible only with supplemental oxygen; without the O2 you are dying.

The FBS has become that Death Zone. The "Power 5" conferences have an unlimited supply of bottled O2...at least for now. The non-Power conferences do not. It's a pure and simple calculus. CUSA, the MAC, the Sunbelt...they are at the highest risk and will be the first to die. The MW and the AAC are in better shape, but death is most certain unless we get some of that O2. But don't kid yourself...we are not surviving at this level, we're just dying at a somewhat slower rate.

I'm not really sure what we can actually do about it, but if we're reconciled to "not being part" of the Power Conferences, then enjoy the view from (almost) the top of Everest.

A division has occurred in NCAA-D1 "FBS" football. Those not in the "Power" division have been relegated to a lower subdivision...we just don't know it yet.

Unfortunately there is much truth to your post. I do think the Big 12 may expand to 12 if the other current members can get 8 votes but I doubt any G5 program will be at the top of the list.

You say "I doubt any G5 program will be at the top of the list." That would imply the new members would be P5 or Indy. Indy would not be ND. Would it be BYU?

What P5 would leave a current P5 conference? Four teams left which were:
CO,MO,TAM,NB.

Tell me which would give up the SEC, B10 or P12 membership and why?

I could see schools leaving the P12. They are only paying their schools ~$35M/year and nobody is watching the P12 network. USC and UCLA could very easily slide into the P12 and increase their contract to $50M per team.

You say " USC and UCLA could very easily slide into the P12 and increase their contract to $50M per team."

Last I heard USC and UCLA were already in the P12. DAH!

B12

(06-29-2021 03:48 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(06-26-2021 08:45 PM)doss2 Wrote:  

(06-26-2021 04:57 PM)Rob3338 Wrote:  

(06-24-2021 10:13 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  The brutal truth is that I think this situation is akin to climbing Mt. Everest. Above a certain level (altitude) you enter the "Death Zone." Prolonged survival in the Death Zone is possible only with supplemental oxygen; without the O2 you are dying.

The FBS has become that Death Zone. The "Power 5" conferences have an unlimited supply of bottled O2...at least for now. The non-Power conferences do not. It's a pure and simple calculus. CUSA, the MAC, the Sunbelt...they are at the highest risk and will be the first to die. The MW and the AAC are in better shape, but death is most certain unless we get some of that O2. But don't kid yourself...we are not surviving at this level, we're just dying at a somewhat slower rate.

I'm not really sure what we can actually do about it, but if we're reconciled to "not being part" of the Power Conferences, then enjoy the view from (almost) the top of Everest.

A division has occurred in NCAA-D1 "FBS" football. Those not in the "Power" division have been relegated to a lower subdivision...we just don't know it yet.

Unfortunately there is much truth to your post. I do think the Big 12 may expand to 12 if the other current members can get 8 votes but I doubt any G5 program will be at the top of the list.

You say "I doubt any G5 program will be at the top of the list." That would imply the new members would be P5 or Indy. Indy would not be ND. Would it be BYU?

What P5 would leave a current P5 conference? Four teams left which were:
CO,MO,TAM,NB.

Tell me which would give up the SEC, B10 or P12 membership and why?

I could see schools leaving the P12. They are only paying their schools ~$35M/year and nobody is watching the P12 network. USC and UCLA could very easily slide into the P12 and increase their contract to $50M per team.

The money issue may solve itself. CBS is going to be a big time bidder for either/or the p12 or b12 after having lost out on the SEC. They aren't going to be left empty handed so the price tag just by that fact will probably be somewhat inflated.

Separate and apart from that, on the recruiting front alone, i can't imagine p12 teams moving away from playing games in its recruiting foot print to away games in TX, KS, OK, etc. You would alienate your recruiting base. Just looking at sc's roster, only 20 or so players are from outside of the p12 footprint, not including HI.

(06-29-2021 06:40 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(06-29-2021 06:28 PM)doss2 Wrote:  

(06-29-2021 03:48 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(06-26-2021 08:45 PM)doss2 Wrote:  

(06-26-2021 04:57 PM)Rob3338 Wrote:  Unfortunately there is much truth to your post. I do think the Big 12 may expand to 12 if the other current members can get 8 votes but I doubt any G5 program will be at the top of the list.

You say "I doubt any G5 program will be at the top of the list." That would imply the new members would be P5 or Indy. Indy would not be ND. Would it be BYU?

What P5 would leave a current P5 conference? Four teams left which were:
CO,MO,TAM,NB.

Tell me which would give up the SEC, B10 or P12 membership and why?

I could see schools leaving the P12. They are only paying their schools ~$35M/year and nobody is watching the P12 network. USC and UCLA could very easily slide into the P12 and increase their contract to $50M per team.

You say " USC and UCLA could very easily slide into the P12 and increase their contract to $50M per team."

Last I heard USC and UCLA were already in the P12. DAH!

B12

So instead of playing teams from CA, OR, WA, AZ and CO the fans of USC and UCLA get to relish playing teams from TX, OK, KS, IA and "DRUM ROLL" WV which are 2 to 3 time zones away. LMAO!