The board is slow.. Decided to post this. Looks like this writer is trying to separate the AAC from the rest of the G5
St. Bonaventure, Colorado State, Loyola Chicago headline early mid-major top 10
By Brian Bennett Jun 16, 2021 39
Over the past two weeks, The Athletic has dropped early rankings for each of the six power conferences and the AAC. They’re great, and you should read them all.
Yet that still leaves 25 leagues and more than 260 teams in need of some accounting. So we’re here to wrap up the series with an early Mid-Major Top 10 (which, of course, doesn’t include Gonzaga. The Zags are going to be really good. Trust us).
This is a daunting exercise, given how many teams are involved and how much movement there has been through the transfer portal. Our own track record on this is spotty. Last summer, we confidently placed Northern Iowa No. 1 in these rankings; the Panthers went 10-15. The surprise element is always the most fun aspect of watching the mid-major ranks. Almost nobody saw Oral Roberts coming last year until it nearly made the Elite Eight, for example.
So don’t take this list as gospel but rather as a primer on some of the most talented and, especially, experienced teams outside of the major conferences. And then enjoy the chaos.
1. St. Bonaventure
Projected starters: Kyle Lofton, Jaren Holmes, Jalen Adaway, Dominick Welch, Osun Osunniyi
The Bonnies are a throwback to another era, when teams stayed together for years and fans got to watch players mature from scared freshmen to confident upperclassmen. The quintet of seniors listed above owns a combined 328 games started; Lofton, Osunniyi and Welch are entering their fourth consecutive season in the starting lineup. The team returns 89 percent of its scoring and 87 percent of its minutes from 2020-21. Continuity like that just doesn’t happen anymore.
Mark Schmidt’s club has more than just familiarity going for it, too. St. Bonaventure went 16-5 in 2020-21, winning the Atlantic 10 regular season and tournament titles, before losing to LSU in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. This was a top 20 defensive team last season, per KenPom.com, with Atlantic 10 defensive player of the year and tournament MVP Osunniyi putting a lid on the rim and Schmidt surrounding him with interchangeable parts. Lofton is a two-time, first-team all-league performer at point guard. The Bonnies should be the runaway preseason favorite in the A-10 and deserve this top spot because of their achievements and experience.
Any questions here are mostly minor. Are they good enough to beat more athletic and physical opponents? The team didn’t play much of a nonconference schedule last season because of the pandemic, and the LSU matchup wasn’t particularly competitive. How much growth can we realistically expect from this group between its junior and senior years? And can the shooting become more consistent? Bona led the A-10 in 3-point percentage but had some rough nights from the perimeter in losses, while Lofton scuffled through a career-worst 24 percent mark on 3s.
The good news is that power conference transfers Quadry Adams (Wake Forest) and Abdoul Karim Coulibaly (Pitt) will add some depth and competition so the starters can’t get too comfortable and stale. Junior college All-American wing Linton Brown shot 48 percent on 3s last season for Indian River (Fla.) State, while another juco addition, 6-9 Oluwasegun Durosinmi, brings more size and rebounding.
Bottom line: this team knows how to win and will be ready to do so from the opening tip. The Bonnies can prove themselves early; they play in a Charleston Classic field that includes West Virginia, Clemson and Ole Miss, and they’ll face Virginia Tech in the Hall of Fame Shootout.
2. Colorado State Projected starters:
David Roddy, Isaiah Stevens, Kendle Moore, Adam Thistlewood, James Moors
Are we about to witness a changing of the guard in the Mountain West? It’s never wise to count out San Diego State, but the Aztecs did lose four senior starters. Utah State is going through a coaching transition after Craig Smith left for Utah. The timing seems ripe for Colorado State, which returns all five starters off a 20-win team that was a victory or two away from making the NCAA Tournament. The Rams did advance to the semifinals of the NIT, and Niko Medved managed to hold on to all of his key guys in the midst of the transfer portal madness.
Medved has the league’s best 1-2 punch in the 6-5, do-it-all Roddy and one of the most underrated point guards in the country in Stevens. Roddy put up 15.9 points and 9.4 rebounds as a sophomore, while Stevens averaged 15.3 points, 5.4 assists and 4.3 assists and shot nearly 43 percent on 3s. They are close friends and roommates who decided to come back to Fort Collins to make a run at a conference title and NCAA Tournament.
The Rams had the Mountain West’s most efficient offense during conference play and ranked fourth on the defensive end. They signed an intriguing transfer in Division II All-American Chandler Jacobs, who scored nearly 21 points per game and finished second in the division in steals for Dallas Baptist. Medved could use some development from young bigs Moors and Dischon Thomas to improve the team’s rebounding, rim protection and overall toughness. The staff liked how Moors played down the stretch, and if he and Thomas can take on bigger roles, that will free up Roddy to be even more of a playmaker.
Medved, who engineered an impressive turnaround at Furman before doing the same here, is one of the game’s bright young minds. Not losing him during the busy offseason coaching carousel was another coup for the program. Medved should finally break through to the NCAA Tournament with this talented and experienced bunch.
3. Loyola Chicago
Projected starters: Braden Norris, Keith Clemons, Lucas Williamson, Aher Uguak, Jacob Hutson
Two key figures from the Ramblers’ recent run of success have moved on: coach Porter Moser, who left for Oklahoma, and the brilliant Cameron Krutwig, who chose not to use his extra year of eligibility. And who could blame Krutwig for chasing his pro dreams after he finished his career with a Final Four, a Sweet 16 and All-American recognition?
Those two men won’t be easy to replace. But Loyola Chicago isn’t about to fall off a cliff. That’s because every other notable contributor from a team that finished No. 10 in KenPom is back, with some formidable reinforcements.
Clemons, Williamson, Uguak and Tate Hall are all super seniors, while supreme sixth man Marquis Kennedy is a highly experienced junior. They are joined by a pair of 6-foot-7 Ivy League transfers in Chris Knight, a second-team all-Ivy performer at Dartmouth two seasons ago, and Ryan Schwieger, a former starter at Princeton. The staff is high on incoming freshmen Ty Johnson and Saint Thomas, and upperclassmen Tom Welch and Damezi Anderson bring depth.
That’s a wealth of experience for a program that has won at an elite level the past four years. The ceiling of this club may come down to the progression of Hutson, who served as Krutwig’s understudy as a freshman and shot 58 percent from the floor. The offense likely will have to adjust without Krutwig’s unique playmaking skills from the high post. Still, a team that ranked second nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency last season should remain a force on that end. Will 29-year-old first-time head coach Drew Valentine be able to keep the good times rolling on the Lake Shore? And will we see Sister Jean again in March?
Steve Alford, left, has a talented roster at Nevada, led by Grant Sherfield. (Orlando Ramirez / USA Today)
4. Nevada
Projected starters: Grant Sherfield, Will Baker (transfer), A.J. Bramah (transfer), Desmond Cambridge Jr., Warren Washington
Remember earlier when we mentioned the potential of new blood at the top of the Mountain West? OK, so it wasn’t that long ago when the Wolf Pack ruled the league under Eric Musselman, but this could be time for Steve Alford to make his mark in Reno.
Nevada finished fifth in a top-heavy conference race last season while beating Boise State three times, taking down Colorado State in the teams’ only meeting and making life difficult for San Diego State in three close affairs. Alford now brings back four starters, headlined by potential preseason league player of the year in Sherfield. The Wichita State transfer was second in the MWC in scoring, first in assists and first in steals as a junior. He should have much more help this fall, as the Wolf Pack added a pair of impact transfers: Baker, a former five-star recruit who played one season at Texas, and Bramah, a 6-7 forward who averaged 21 points and 10.3 rebounds last season for Robert Morris.
Wichita State transfer Trey Wade decommitted in the spring and signed with Arkansas, so Florida Atlantic transfer Kenan Blackshear took Wade’s spot for more depth on the wing. Returnees Tre Coleman and K.J. Hymes Jr. provide plenty of depth. Alford has played two bigs often at Nevada and will have twin towers with 7-footers Baker and Washington, while the 6-10 Hymes led the team in blocked shots.
Alford knows how to get the most out of his talent on offense. If this team can develop toughness and a defensive want-to, which haven’t always been hallmarks of his teams in the past, then the Wolf Pack could get back to the levels it reached under Musselman.
5. Belmont
Projected starters: Grayson Murphy, Nick Muszynski, JaCobi Wood, Luke Smith, Ben Sheppard
The Bruins won 24 of their first 25 games last season, but a late injury to star big man Muszynski disrupted their rhythm and led to losses in three of their final five contests. That booted a 26-4 team out of the NCAA Tournament. Life as a mid-major is unforgiving.
On the bright side, the team’s top seven scorers are all back. That includes Musyzinski and point guard Grayson Murphy, who have been among the best non-power conference players at their positions for the past three seasons. Murphy is the only active Division I men’s player with at least 900 points, 550 rebounds, 550 assists and 150 steals, and he’s on pace to become the Ohio Valley’s all-time leader in assists and steals.
This is a potent offensive club — Belmont’s effective field percentage of 56.3 ranked ninth nationally — that could get even better if Wood makes an expected leap as a sophomore. And now it’s a group that’s highly motivated to atone for a disappointing finish. Casey Alexander’s team will get a chance to prove itself early, and possibly notch some key nonconference wins, in an ESPN Events Invitational field that also includes Alabama and Kansas this November.
6. Oral Roberts
Projected starters: Max Abmas, Kevin Obanor, Carlos Jurgens, Kareem Thompson, Francis Lacis
No team on the list has more to gain/lose from NBA decisions than the Golden Eagles.
Abmas, who led the nation in scoring last season, and Obanor have both declared for the NBA Draft but are maintaining their eligibility as they gather feedback. The fact that neither star put his name in the transfer portal is already a major win for coach Paul Mills. If both come back, this team would be a candidate for the top spot on this list. If neither do, then Oral Roberts could have trouble contending in the Summit League. With just Obanor returning to the fold, this is a good team but probably not one that belongs in the top 10. So, yeah, their decisions are kind of a big deal. Abmas ranked 55th on Sam Vecenie’s most recent Big Board, putting him right on the borderline of whether to stay or go. Given the NBA’s emphasis on shooting, though, he would do no worse than receiving a two-way contract.
Of course, much also depends on which version of last season’s squad you believe is real. The one that finished the regular season 13-10 and in fourth place in the Summit? Or the one that upset Ohio State and Florida and came within a missed Abmas 3 at the buzzer against Arkansas for a spot in the regional final? There’s little doubt that Mills pushed all the right buttons down the stretch of the season, and Abmas and Obanor could be the best pick-and-roll tandem in all of college basketball. It would be fun — and kind of incredible, honestly — to see them take one more run in Tulsa.
ShanQuan Hemphill and Drake are looking to get back to the NCAA Tournament. (Albert Cesare/IndyStar via USA Today)
7. Drake
Projected starters: Roman Penn, ShanQuan “Tank” Hemphill, Tremell Murphy, Darnell Brodie, D.J. Wilkins
It’s time to retire the Seinfeld references and jokes about the Canadian rapper when mentioning Darian DeVries’ Bulldogs. Because this team has proved it can play.
Even after losing arguably its best two players in Penn and Hemphill to injuries late in the season, Drake rallied to reach the First Four and beat Wichita State for some of those sweet NCAA Tournament units. That happened in large part because Joseph Yesufu emerged off the bench into a sudden scoring star, which he leveraged into an offseason transfer to Kansas.
His loss hurts, but Yesufu was averaging a little more than eight points after the first 18 games — and the Bulldogs were 18-0. The five starters who keyed that run all return, along with valuable sub Garrett Sturtz. That means the team’s top six players will all be seniors. Not a bad place to begin, huh? DeVries also welcomes his son, Tucker, who was a four-star recruit and one of the top prospects in Iowa. Omaha graduate transfer Ayo Akinwole, who led his former team in scoring, can fill the backup point guard role that Yesufu held before he went supernova.
This will be an extremely mature team full of guys who went to prep school or transferred in, meaning they’re even older than your average seniors. Don’t expect another magical, undefeated-into-February start, but the Bulldogs should challenge Loyola Chicago once again for Missouri Valley supremacy. They’re also in the same Orlando tournament as Belmont in November. Hey, ESPN, just don’t match up these two standout mid-majors against each other in the first round, OK?
8. UAB
Projected starters: Tavin Lovan, Quan Jackson, Trey Jemison, K.J. Buffen (transfer), Jamal Johnson (transfer)
The Blazers rather quietly started the season 16-2 while finishing with 22 wins. They flew under the radar in part because opportunity games against Kentucky and Georgia Tech got canceled and because they didn’t play top Conference USA contenders North Texas or Western Kentucky until March.
Get ready to hear more about UAB. Andy Kennedy should have the C-USA preseason favorite in his second year back in coaching. Jackson and Jemison are both fierce defenders who powered the team to a top 50 finish in adjusted defensive efficiency; Jemison is a 7-foot eraser in the middle, while Jackson can lock down the perimeter. Kennedy wants to play with a little more pace and hopes for more offensive skill this time around. He should be helped in that cause by the addition of Johnson, who hit 36 percent of his 3s for Auburn last season, and by Buffen, a two-year starter for Ole Miss. Lovan is coming off a second-team all-league campaign, while Michael Ertel can play either guard spot.
This will be a very experienced crew that already knows its defensive
identity.
9. Iona
Projected starters: Nelly Junior Joseph, Tyson Jolly (transfer), Elijah Joiner (transfer), Berrick JeanLouis, Quinn Slazinski (transfer)
If all you knew about the Gaels was that they went 12-6 last season and then lost their top two scorers, you would have no idea why they’re included here. Context matters. Iona went through some of the longest COVID-19 pauses of any team in 2020-21 yet still found its way into the NCAA Tournament. In Year 2, Rick Pitino will actually get to spend time around his players during the offseason, and in case you hadn’t noticed, he can coach a little bit. Pitino also brings in Tulsa graduate transfer Joiner to run the point and SMU import Jolly for some serious scoring punch. He picked up Slazinski from Louisville — nope, not weird at all — and should help the 6-8 stretch four reach his potential. Joseph, a 6-9 bundle of possibilities, leads the returnees, while Pitino also has some interesting recruits, including 6-10 big man Trey James.
From a pure talent perspective, the Gaels should be the class of the MAAC. Combine that with a Hall of Fame coach, and this could be a dangerous club come March. Again.
10. BYU
Projected starters: Alex Barcello, Te’Jon Lucas (transfer), Gideon George, Caleb Lohner, Gavin Baxter
This ranking is as much a vote of confidence in Mark Pope and his staff as it is about the roster. In his first two seasons in Provo, Pope has guided the Cougars to two second-place finishes in the West Coast Conference and what would have been back-to-back single-digit seeds in the NCAA Tournament, if the 2020 event hadn’t been canceled.
BYU wouldn’t have cracked this ranking if it weren’t for two springtime decisions in the backcourt. Barcello, the team’s leading scorer and one of the top 3-point shooters in the country, opted to use his extra year of eligibility. Pope also landed Lucas from Milwaukee, where he led the Horizon League in assists. Lucas isn’t much of an outside shooter but gives the team playmaking ability. Trevin Knell knocked down nearly 47 percent of his treys as a sophomore off the bench. Hunter Erickson, who redshirted as a freshman, and Trey Stewart, fresh off his Mormon mission, should bolster the guard spots.
It’s everywhere else that creates mystery. Who’ll replace Matt Haarms up front? The Cougars are counting on much progress from George, Richard Harward and Lohner, the latter of whom averaged more than seven rebounds per game as a freshman. Atiki Ally Atiki, a 6-11 native of Tanzania who played at the London Basketball Academy, arrives this summer to augment the frontcourt.
The biggest key to the whole enterprise may rest on the health of Baxter. The 6-8 forward has been sidelined most of the past two seasons with shoulder and knee injuries. He was a four-star recruit … way back in 2016 before his mission and injury issues. If healthy, and he is expected to be ready for the start of the season, he will provide veteran leadership at the very least.
There are lot of ifs and moving parts here. But Pope has shown the ability to stitch together really good teams and deserves the benefit of the doubt. And don’t underestimate the return of BYU’s home court advantage if the Marriott Center is full and rocking this winter.
Waiting room: Buffalo, Grand Canyon, Loyola Marymount, San Diego State, Saint Louis, VCU, Wright State
Enjoy
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The Athlectic UAB #8
