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I say something nice about the AAC: Very clearly ahead of other G5s.
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #1
I say something nice about the AAC: Very clearly ahead of other G5s.
Using the same link where I looked at whether the AAC plus BYU looked like a power conference (https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/07/...m-analysis), I extended the question to see what the other FBS conferences looked like, beyond the top 50 schools for attendance.

I pointed out that the AAC wasn't very P6, because they had zero schools in the top 50. On the other hand, let's see how G5 they are.

Conference, 1-25, 26-50, 51-75, 76-100, 101+
SEC 9, 6, 1, 0, 0
B1G 7, 2, 5, 0, 0
PAC 3, 6, 3, 0, 0
XII 2, 7, 0, 1, 0
ACC 3, 5, 4, 2, 0
AAC 0, 0, 8, 2, 1
MWC 0, 0, 3, 6, 3
Sun Belt 0, 0, 0, 3, 7
CUSA 0, 0, 0, 8, 6

Some other ways to look at this data
Percentage of conference in the top 75
SEC, Big, PAC 100%
XII 90%
ACC 86%
AAC 72%
MWC 25%
CUSA, MAC, Belt 0%

Percentage of conference in the top 100
SEC, B1G, PAC, XII, ACC 100%
AAC 91%
MWC 75%
CUSA 57%
Belt 30%
MAC 17%

EDIT: Maybe next I'll throw the numbers into a quick spreadsheet and look at the 25%-75% for each conference. ALthough just from putting them into 25 school intervals, it looks like the MWC 75% is going to be around the AAC's 25%.
(This post was last modified: 06-15-2021 08:04 PM by johnbragg.)
06-15-2021 07:59 PM
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BraveKnight Offline
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RE: I say something nice about the AAC: Very clearly ahead of other G5s.
UCF, Cincy, and Memphis will be in the top 50 sooner rather than later.
06-15-2021 08:25 PM
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bill dazzle Online
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RE: I say something nice about the AAC: Very clearly ahead of other G5s.
Very interesting stats and good work, jbragg. Much appreciated.

I read every school's average attendance of the last five years (2015-2019). Some surprises, particularly the Pac-12 overall (VERY respectable).

Thanks for undertaking this.
(This post was last modified: 06-15-2021 08:38 PM by bill dazzle.)
06-15-2021 08:37 PM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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I say something nice about the AAC: Very clearly ahead of other G5s.
Confused. Is this enrollment attendance, football attendance, basketball? What am I looking at here? And are the rankings this past year? Trailing years?


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(This post was last modified: 06-15-2021 08:41 PM by CoastalJuan.)
06-15-2021 08:40 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: I say something nice about the AAC: Very clearly ahead of other G5s.
(06-15-2021 07:59 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  Using the same link where I looked at whether the AAC plus BYU looked like a power conference .....

This may surprise you, but the main takeaway I have from this data is that the MAC should probably be reclassified as an FCS conference. It really doesn't look like an FBS conference at all.
(This post was last modified: 06-15-2021 08:45 PM by quo vadis.)
06-15-2021 08:44 PM
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johnbragg Offline
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RE: I say something nice about the AAC: Very clearly ahead of other G5s.
(06-15-2021 08:40 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  Confused. Is this enrollment attendance, football attendance, basketball? What am I looking at here? And are the rankings this past year? Trailing years?


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Five year average football attendance
06-15-2021 08:50 PM
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BraveKnight Offline
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RE: I say something nice about the AAC: Very clearly ahead of other G5s.
(06-15-2021 08:44 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-15-2021 07:59 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  Using the same link where I looked at whether the AAC plus BYU looked like a power conference .....

This may surprise you, but the main takeaway I have from this data is that the MAC should probably be reclassified as an FCS conference. It really doesn't look like an FBS conference at all.
Only a few MAC programs that really feel like they should be in the FBS in my opinion. I’m surprised we didn’t see any of them drop down during covid. Teams like Ball State, Kent State, Akron, Eastern Michigan really should be FCS.
(This post was last modified: 06-15-2021 08:51 PM by BraveKnight.)
06-15-2021 08:50 PM
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johnbragg Offline
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RE: I say something nice about the AAC: Very clearly ahead of other G5s.
(06-15-2021 08:44 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-15-2021 07:59 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  Using the same link where I looked at whether the AAC plus BYU looked like a power conference .....

This may surprise you, but the main takeaway I have from this data is that the MAC should probably be reclassified as an FCS conference. It really doesn't look like an FBS conference at all.

Or the Tuesday / Wednesday night games are killing them.

Maybe and/or.
06-15-2021 08:51 PM
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ken d Online
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RE: I say something nice about the AAC: Very clearly ahead of other G5s.
Interesting way to look at conferences. Using the 10 year average Sagarin strength rating for each school in the same groups of 25, this is what you get.

Conf...1-25...26-50...51-75...76-100...101+...Best (school)

SEC......7........5..........2..........0...........0........1 (Alabama)
B12......5........3..........1..........0...........1........4 (Oklahoma)
B1G......5........3..........3..........3...........0........2 (Ohio State)
PAC......4........5..........2...........1..........0........6 (Oregon)
ACC......2........7..........5...........0..........0........3 (Clemson)
AAC......0........1..........7...........4..........1........48 (UCF)
MWC.....1........0..........3...........4..........4........25 (Boise State)
MAC......0........0..........2...........4..........6........63 (Toledo)
SUN......0........0..........1...........4..........5........75 (Appalachian St)
USA......0........0..........1...........4..........9........73 (Louisiana Tech)

It seems any way you slice it, the AAC is clearly not P5 and just as clearly the strongest G5.
06-15-2021 08:58 PM
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ken d Online
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RE: I say something nice about the AAC: Very clearly ahead of other G5s.
(06-15-2021 08:44 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-15-2021 07:59 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  Using the same link where I looked at whether the AAC plus BYU looked like a power conference .....

This may surprise you, but the main takeaway I have from this data is that the MAC should probably be reclassified as an FCS conference. It really doesn't look like an FBS conference at all.

In their defense, neither do the Belt and CUSA.
06-15-2021 09:02 PM
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bill dazzle Online
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RE: I say something nice about the AAC: Very clearly ahead of other G5s.
(06-15-2021 09:02 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(06-15-2021 08:44 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-15-2021 07:59 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  Using the same link where I looked at whether the AAC plus BYU looked like a power conference .....

This may surprise you, but the main takeaway I have from this data is that the MAC should probably be reclassified as an FCS conference. It really doesn't look like an FBS conference at all.

In their defense, neither do the Belt and CUSA.


Though perhaps one could argue that what the Belt lacks in attendance, it compensates nicely in terms of results.
06-15-2021 09:49 PM
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Foreverandever Offline
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Post: #12
RE: I say something nice about the AAC: Very clearly ahead of other G5s.
(06-15-2021 08:58 PM)ken d Wrote:  Interesting way to look at conferences. Using the 10 year average Sagarin strength rating for each school in the same groups of 25, this is what you get.

Conf...1-25...26-50...51-75...76-100...101+...Best (school)

SEC......7........5..........2..........0...........0........1 (Alabama)
B12......5........3..........1..........0...........1........4 (Oklahoma)
B1G......5........3..........3..........3...........0........2 (Ohio State)
PAC......4........5..........2...........1..........0........6 (Oregon)
ACC......2........7..........5...........0..........0........3 (Clemson)
AAC......0........1..........7...........4..........1........48 (UCF)
MWC.....1........0..........3...........4..........4........25 (Boise State)
MAC......0........0..........2...........4..........6........63 (Toledo)
SUN......0........0..........1...........4..........5........75 (Appalachian St)
USA......0........0..........1...........4..........9........73 (Louisiana Tech)

It seems any way you slice it, the AAC is clearly not P5 and just as clearly the strongest G5.

10 years seems unfair. The AAC has only existed for 7 seasons. 6 with Navy and one of the lowest performers has been gone for two seasons.

What this shows is what most of the AAC has been saying, we are a tweener conference closer to the A5 than the four below, and if you do it from 2015 till now I bet it would be even more clear. What the AAC lacks is one or two top 25 programs. UCF seems to be emerging as one, Cincinnati has previously been one, and seems on track to returning. Memphis has shown some signs they could become that type program.
06-15-2021 09:49 PM
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Kyle Mack Offline
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Post: #13
RE: I say something nice about the AAC: Very clearly ahead of other G5s.
Cincy changed the game last season with their defense. The high grade G5 teams have offenses that can get it done, however UGA flat out could not run the ball on Cincy.
06-15-2021 11:08 PM
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RE: I say something nice about the AAC: Very clearly ahead of other G5s.
(06-15-2021 09:49 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  What this shows is what most of the AAC has been saying, we are a tweener conference closer to the A5 than the four below, and if you do it from 2015 till now I bet it would be even more clear. ...

Yeah, where the argument comes a cropper is if it moves from claims that can be backed, like "the AAC is on average the strongest among the non-contract-bowl conferences" or "the AAC is on average the strongest among the Group of Five" to claims that are objective false, like referring to the Group of Five other than the AAC as the G4 or referring to the six strongest FBS conferences as the P6.

I would, indeed, be happy if it was the Group of Four, and the MAC champion only had to compete against the Sunbelt, CUSA and MWC champion for the Access Bowl spot, and if those four conferences split the ~$90m in CFP money four ways instead of five ways. But every time an AAC fan raises my hopes by using the G4 term ...

... that the AAC has decided to turn its back on the race for the Access Bowl and has handed its share of the Go5 money back to be split amongst the rest of us ...

... my hopes are dashed, as it turns out they have not actually left the group that has the rights to those things under the CFP contract.
06-16-2021 12:09 AM
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RE: I say something nice about the AAC: Very clearly ahead of other G5s.
(06-16-2021 12:09 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(06-15-2021 09:49 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  What this shows is what most of the AAC has been saying, we are a tweener conference closer to the A5 than the four below, and if you do it from 2015 till now I bet it would be even more clear. ...

Yeah, where the argument comes a cropper is if it moves from claims that can be backed, like "the AAC is on average the strongest among the non-contract-bowl conferences" or "the AAC is on average the strongest among the Group of Five" to claims that are objective false, like referring to the Group of Five other than the AAC as the G4 or referring to the six strongest FBS conferences as the P6.

I would, indeed, be happy if it was the Group of Four, and the MAC champion only had to compete against the Sunbelt, CUSA and MWC champion for the Access Bowl spot, and if those four conferences split the ~$90m in CFP money four ways instead of five ways. But every time an AAC fan raises my hopes by using the G4 term ...

... that the AAC has decided to turn its back on the race for the Access Bowl and has handed its share of the Go5 money back to be split amongst the rest of us ...

... my hopes are dashed, as it turns out they have not actually left the group that has the rights to those things under the CFP contract.

Lol

No, 3+6=9 and so does 4+5.

There is no argument to be had, the AAC is closer to the A5 (an actual NCAA term) then they are to any non-A5 conference. With the AAC having already surpassed one A5 conference in basketball and football. Something no other non-A5 conference has been close to doing. With the new CFP rules there is no access bowl and with that letter the AAC has made it clear they will get autonomy.
06-16-2021 12:23 AM
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BruceMcF Online
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RE: I say something nice about the AAC: Very clearly ahead of other G5s.
(06-16-2021 12:23 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  There is no argument to be had, the AAC is closer to the A5 (an actual NCAA term) then they are to any non-A5 conference.

But I was responding to arguments like:

Quote: With the AAC having already surpassed one A5 conference in basketball and football. Something no other non-A5 conference has been close to doing.

These are the kinds of arguments used for the "P6" and "G4" terms.

They are not arguments about whether or not a conference is in the group of conferences with collective autonomy on a specific set of regulations, so the fact that there is no A6 unless and until a sixth conference is added to the group of conferences (that have collective autonomy on a specific set of regulations) is neither here nor there to the hypothesis that a "Group of Four" exists.

Or, more briefly, if the AAC was added to the autonomy group, all it would mean would be the P5 having all of its members in the A6, and the Go5 having one of its members in the A6.


For the type of power that the sportswriters had in mind when they dubbed the five Contract Bowl Conferences the "Power 5" ... the AAC has not actually ever surpassed any P5 conference. Obviously AAC supporters delight in focusing on any ranking in which they DO every surpass one of the P5, and that is fair enough, and all good fun, but it doesn't shift the balance of power in any major way.

Quote: With the new CFP rules there is no access bowl and with that letter the AAC has made it clear they will get autonomy.

Don't get ahead of yourselves: there are no new CFP rules until the deal is negotiated and the contract extension is signed, and if the AAC has the good sense to continue to negotiate with the other Go5 conferences AS a group in the contract extension talks, the AAC will continue to be part of the Group of Five no matter WHAT contractual rights the group members end up having under the new deal.
(This post was last modified: 06-16-2021 12:38 AM by BruceMcF.)
06-16-2021 12:35 AM
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RE: I say something nice about the AAC: Very clearly ahead of other G5s.
Ken's data ALSO tells me that BSU should be in a P5 conference.
06-16-2021 02:28 AM
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RE: I say something nice about the AAC: Very clearly ahead of other G5s.
(06-16-2021 02:28 AM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Ken's data ALSO tells me that BSU should be in a P5 conference.

Ball State? They are 130th. Perhaps you mean a different BSU.

The Go5 school REALLY in amongst the P5 schools is ECU. The P5 schools in amongst the Go5 schools between 25,000 and 35,000 are a set of four classy private schools, Wazzu and Kansas.
06-16-2021 03:43 AM
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RE: I say something nice about the AAC: Very clearly ahead of other G5s.
(06-16-2021 03:43 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(06-16-2021 02:28 AM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Ken's data ALSO tells me that BSU should be in a P5 conference.

Ball State? They are 130th. Perhaps you mean a different BSU.

The Go5 school REALLY in amongst the P5 schools is ECU. The P5 schools in amongst the Go5 schools between 25,000 and 35,000 are a set of four classy private schools, Wazzu and Kansas.

There are another 5-6 schools that average 35-40,000 whose attendance are augmented by massive traveling fan bases. Northwestern averaged 37,000 fans a game in 2019: how many of those were OSU and Michigan State fans? I went to a game at Northwestern-OSU game once several years ago with my wife and half the stadium was wearing Scarlet and Gray.

Due to its geographical spread, traveling fan bases are pretty thin in the AAC. It’s much easier for a Purdue fan to go to Illinois or Wisconsin than say an ECU fan to go to Tulsa or Memphis.
06-16-2021 04:27 AM
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RE: I say something nice about the AAC: Very clearly ahead of other G5s.
Boise St., but you probably knew that.
06-16-2021 04:28 AM
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