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Retrospective 12-Team Playoffs
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Statefan Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Retrospective 12-Team Playoffs
(06-11-2021 10:54 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(06-11-2021 02:51 PM)Statefan Wrote:  
(06-11-2021 02:33 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Also, 28 bids in 23 years is down right pathetic for the ACC.

Is it?

With FSU at it's greatest in the first quarter of this time frame, and Miami, VT, BC, Pitt, and Syracuse in the Big East and Utah and TCU in the Mountain West what would you expect?

Not pathetic per se, but the fewest of the surviving power conferences. Less than half of what the SEC accrued in this alternate timeline.

Having more teams in your conference helps.

From 53 to 71 the ACC had 8, while the Big 10 had 10 and the SEC had 12, then down to 10.

From 71 to 80 the ACC only had 7 to the above's 10 schools.

From 1990 to 2003 the ACC only had 9 compared to the B10's 11 and the SEC's eventual 12. The ACC does not pull even team number wise until 2014.

The Big 8 and SWC were always one or two school affairs from a national significance standpoint and only once in a blue moon did a third school pop up.
From 1936 to 1995 the SWC put teams in the final AP poll 121 times - an average of 2 per season. The So/Con-ACC from 1936 to 2012 when the ACC finally went to 14 averaged 1.92 rankings in the final polls and that's with a 10 year drought from 1963 to 1972 thanks the 800 SAT rule. I would say that smaller sized conferences are not able to sustain more than 2 really successful programs at one time and to even do that the top programs have to be equally matched.
(This post was last modified: 06-12-2021 07:00 PM by Statefan.)
06-12-2021 06:26 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Retrospective 12-Team Playoffs
(06-12-2021 04:46 PM)BCSvsBS Wrote:  
(06-12-2021 04:00 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(06-12-2021 03:14 PM)BCSvsBS Wrote:  Count is still wrong. You added all of Boises appearances even those when they were in a diferent conference. By that messure, you then have to count WVa, Louseville, Miami, Georgia Tech and Tulanes appearances for the AAC/Big East. This adds 4 more appearences as you already counted Tulane. Also subtract 4 from the ACC.

That was the point. Counts based on the conference at the time are in the OP.

So the AAC shoild have 13 and the ACC should have 30.

Are you aiming for any school's bid to be counted for a conference as long as the school was in that conference at any point since 1998? This means a single bid can be counted multiple times. Here are the counts for that then:

SEC: 68
Big 12: 60
Big Ten: 54
ACC: 43
Pac-10/12: 41
Big East/AAC: 25
CUSA: 20
MWC: 20
WAC: 20
Big West: 8
I-A/FBS Ind: 8
MAC: 4
Sun Belt: 1

Also, Georgia Tech was never in the Big East or AAC.
06-12-2021 06:43 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Retrospective 12-Team Playoffs
(06-12-2021 06:26 PM)Statefan Wrote:  
(06-11-2021 10:54 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(06-11-2021 02:51 PM)Statefan Wrote:  
(06-11-2021 02:33 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Also, 28 bids in 23 years is down right pathetic for the ACC.

Is it?

With FSU at it's greatest in the first quarter of this time frame, and Miami, VT, BC, Pitt, and Syracuse in the Big East and Utah and TCU in the Mountain West what would you expect?

Not pathetic per se, but the fewest of the surviving power conferences. Less than half of what the SEC accrued in this alternate timeline.

Having more teams in your conference helps.

From 53 to 71 the ACC had 8, while the Big 10 had 10 and the SEC had 12, then down to 10.

From 71 to 80 the ACC only had 7 to the above's 10 schools.

From 1990 to 2003 the ACC only had 9 compared to the B10's 11 and the SEC's eventual 12. The ACC does not pull even team number wise until 2014.

The Big 8 and SWC were always one or two school affairs from a national significance standpoint and only once in a blue moon did a third school pop up.
From 1936 to 1995 the SWC put teams in the final AP poll 121 times - an average of 2 per season. The So/Con-ACC from 1936 to 2012 when the ACC finally went to 14 averaged 1.92 rankings in the final polls and that's with a 10 year drought from 1963 to 1972 thanks the 800 SAT rule. I would say that smaller sized conferences are not able to sustain more than 2 really successful programs at one time and to even do that the top programs have to be equally matched.

Fair point. So if you add up the number of FB schools in a conference for each year since 1998, you get the total number of school-years for that conference. Divide the number of total bids by school-years and you get the conference's success rate at getting to the playoffs in this alternate timeline:

Big 12: 48/211 (22.75%)
SEC: 65/294 (22.11%)
Big Ten: 49/256 (19.14%)
Pac-10/12: 38/250 (15.20%)
ACC: 28/277 (10.11%)
Big East/AAC: 17/274 (6.20%)
WAC: 7/142 (4.93%)
MWC: 10/216 (4.63%)
MAC: 4/294 (1.36%)
CUSA: 2/272 (0.74%)
Sun Belt: 1/186 (0.54%)
Big West: 0/19 (0.00%)

I-A/FBS Ind: 7/111 (6.31%)

The ACC comes in last of the current power conferences even taking into account its smaller size at the start of the BCS era.
(This post was last modified: 06-12-2021 07:29 PM by Nerdlinger.)
06-12-2021 07:15 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Retrospective 12-Team Playoffs
(06-12-2021 06:18 PM)JamesTKirk Wrote:  
(06-12-2021 04:46 PM)BCSvsBS Wrote:  
(06-12-2021 04:00 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  [quote='BCSvsBS' pid='17464269' dateline='1623528879']
Count is still wrong. You added all of Boises appearances even those when they were in a diferent conference. By that messure, you then have to count WVa, Louseville, Miami, Georgia Tech and Tulanes appearances for the AAC/Big East. This adds 4 more appearences as you already counted Tulane. Also subtract 4 from the ACC.

That was the point. Counts based on the conference at the time are in the OP.

Nerdlinger,

Congratulations for doing an outstanding job on assembling the data. You did a yeoman's job!

It made the most sense to list the teams according to their conference affiliations at the time (including Boise St., which was in the WAC (2000-2010) and MWC (2011-2020)), rather than listing them according to the conferences that they are in today, because you were doing historical, rather than "alternative history" research.

Presenting the data the way that you did was very informative, because doing so made it clear that there was a lot more diversity in the number of conferences that would have been represented, had the 12-team CFP format been in place over the past 20 years.

Could the data be presented differently, based on a scenario in which the teams would have been in different conferences than they were in at the time?

The answer would be "yes, but that would have made it harder, not easier, for the reader to see what the impact of conference realignment has been."

Certainly with a point of divergence in the late '90s, we'd realistically have seen schools perform differently and even realign differently than in our timeline. But that's all speculative, so this is the best we can do.
06-12-2021 07:37 PM
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random asian guy Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Retrospective 12-Team Playoffs
(06-12-2021 06:43 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(06-12-2021 04:46 PM)BCSvsBS Wrote:  
(06-12-2021 04:00 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(06-12-2021 03:14 PM)BCSvsBS Wrote:  Count is still wrong. You added all of Boises appearances even those when they were in a diferent conference. By that messure, you then have to count WVa, Louseville, Miami, Georgia Tech and Tulanes appearances for the AAC/Big East. This adds 4 more appearences as you already counted Tulane. Also subtract 4 from the ACC.

That was the point. Counts based on the conference at the time are in the OP.

So the AAC shoild have 13 and the ACC should have 30.

Are you aiming for any school's bid to be counted for a conference as long as the school was in that conference at any point since 1998? This means a single bid can be counted multiple times. Here are the counts for that then:

SEC: 68
Big 12: 60
Big Ten: 54
ACC: 43
Pac-10/12: 41
Big East/AAC: 25
CUSA: 20
MWC: 20
WAC: 20
Big West: 8
I-A/FBS Ind: 8
MAC: 4
Sun Belt: 1

Also, Georgia Tech was never in the Big East or AAC.

If we are trying to see how each conference would do in the future, isn’t it better to simply total the current members’ playoff appearances, disregarding their previous conference affiliation? For example, the number for the ACC would be 34 (10 FSU + 7 Clemson + 6 Miami + 6 VT + 2 Louisville + 1 GT + 1 UNC + 1 UVa).
06-12-2021 10:01 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Retrospective 12-Team Playoffs
(06-12-2021 10:01 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  
(06-12-2021 06:43 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(06-12-2021 04:46 PM)BCSvsBS Wrote:  
(06-12-2021 04:00 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(06-12-2021 03:14 PM)BCSvsBS Wrote:  Count is still wrong. You added all of Boises appearances even those when they were in a diferent conference. By that messure, you then have to count WVa, Louseville, Miami, Georgia Tech and Tulanes appearances for the AAC/Big East. This adds 4 more appearences as you already counted Tulane. Also subtract 4 from the ACC.

That was the point. Counts based on the conference at the time are in the OP.

So the AAC shoild have 13 and the ACC should have 30.

Are you aiming for any school's bid to be counted for a conference as long as the school was in that conference at any point since 1998? This means a single bid can be counted multiple times. Here are the counts for that then:

SEC: 68
Big 12: 60
Big Ten: 54
ACC: 43
Pac-10/12: 41
Big East/AAC: 25
CUSA: 20
MWC: 20
WAC: 20
Big West: 8
I-A/FBS Ind: 8
MAC: 4
Sun Belt: 1

Also, Georgia Tech was never in the Big East or AAC.

If we are trying to see how each conference would do in the future, isn’t it better to simply total the current members’ playoff appearances, disregarding their previous conference affiliation? For example, the number for the ACC would be 34 (10 FSU + 7 Clemson + 6 Miami + 6 VT + 2 Louisville + 1 GT + 1 UNC + 1 UVa).

(06-12-2021 02:54 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(06-12-2021 01:41 PM)goofus Wrote:  Quick count. Not guarunteeing 100% accuracy

Number of bids based on current conference membership and not based on conference membership at the time.

SEC: 68
Big Ten: 54
Big 12: 45
PAC: 41
ACC: 34
ND: 8
AAC: 8
MWC: 9
MAC: 3
CUSA: 1
SBC: 1

Close! Here's what I get:

SEC: 68
Big Ten: 54
Big 12: 48
Pac-12: 41
ACC: 34
AAC: 9
MWC: 9
I(ND): 8
MAC: 3
CUSA: 1
Sun Belt: 1
06-12-2021 10:49 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Retrospective 12-Team Playoffs
(06-12-2021 10:01 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  If we are trying to see how each conference would do in the future, isn’t it better to simply total the current members’ playoff appearances, disregarding their previous conference affiliation? For example, the number for the ACC would be 34 (10 FSU + 7 Clemson + 6 Miami + 6 VT + 2 Louisville + 1 GT + 1 UNC + 1 UVa).

Though it should be a moving average, since performances three decades ago are less relevant than a performance five years ago. To be cautious about the decay, maybe in the Teens time 1, in the Noughts times 0.9, in the 90s time 0.8.
06-12-2021 11:19 PM
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JamesTKirk Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Retrospective 12-Team Playoffs
(06-12-2021 04:00 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Counts based on the conference at the time are in the OP.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

It would be interesting to extend the research back, before 1998, the available data from the AP top 20 lists dating back to 1936, by the 1960-1970 Coaches Polls. Top-ranked co-champions could be identified as the conference champions.

There would be some interesting findings:

For example, these teams would have been the playoff teams in 1991:

1991 Conference champions:

AP#:
#1 Miami@ (highest ranked conf. champ) Big East Champion
#2 Washington (2nd highest ranked conf. champ)
#5 Alabama (3rd highest ranked conf. champ)
#6 Michigan (4th highest ranked conf. champ)
#12 Texas A&M (5th highest-ranked conf. champ) SWC Champion
#15 Nebraska* (6th highest-ranked conf. champ)

*Top-ranked Big 8 conference co-champion.
@ Now in ACC.

1991 At-large teams:

AP#:
#3 Penn State FBS Independent
#4 FSU FBS Independent
#7 Florida
#8 California
#9 East Carolina^ FBS Independent
#10 Iowa

^Now in AAC.
@Now in SEC.

1991 CFP teams by conference:

ACC: 0
Big Ten: 2
Big 8 (now, "Big 12"): 1
SEC: 2
PAC-10: (now "PAC-12"): 2
Big East: 1
SWC: 1
Independent (Penn St., FSU, & ECU (now AAC): 3


ACC, Big 10, Big 8, PAC-10, and SEC: 7 playoff teams

Independents and other conferences: 5 playoff teams


1984 playoff teams:

1984 Conference champions:

AP#:
#1 BYU@ (highest ranked conf. champ) WAC Champion
#2 Washington (2nd highest ranked conf. champ)
#3 Florida (3rd highest ranked conf. champ)
#4 Nebraska (4th highest ranked conf. champ)
#8 SMU*^ (5th highest-ranked conf. champ) SWC Champion
#9 UCLA (6th highest-ranked conf. champ)

*Top-ranked conference co-champion.
@Current Independent.
^Currently in the AAC.

1984 At-large teams:

AP#:
#5 Boston College FBS Independent
#6 Oklahoma
#7 Oklahoma St.
#10 USC
#11 South Carolina FBS Independent
#12 Maryland

1984 CFP teams by conference:

ACC: 1
Big Ten: 0
Big 8 (now, "Big 12"): 3
SEC: 1
PAC-10: (now "PAC-12"): 3
WAC: 1
SWC (now AAC): 1
Independent (BC, South Carolina): 3


ACC, Big 10, Big 8, PAC-10, and SEC: 8 playoff teams

Independents and other conferences: 4 playoff teams


.

1957 playoff teams:

1957 Conference champions:

#1 Auburn (highest ranked conf. champ)
#2 Ohio St. (2nd highest ranked conf. champ)
#4 Oklahoma (3rd highest ranked conf. champ)
#8 Rice^ (4th highest ranked conf. champ) SWC Champion
#12 Arizona St. (5th highest-ranked conf. champ) BIAA Champion^
#15 NC St. (6th highest-ranked conf. champ)

^#8 Rice (currently a C-USA team) played in the Cotton Bowl and would have had a first round bye in a 12-team 1957 CFP.

^BIAA=Border Intercollegiate Athletic Association

1957 At-large teams:

AP#
#3 Michigan State
#5 Navy^ FBS Independent
#6 Iowa
#7 Mississippi
#9 Texas A&M
#10 Notre Dame FBS Independent

^#5 Navy (currently in the AAC), might have played a round 1 (play-in) playoff game on its home field.

1957 CFP teams by conference:

ACC: 1
Big Ten: 3
Big 6 (now "Big 12"): 1
PCC (now "PAC-12"): 0
SEC: 2
BIAA (#12 Arizona St.; now PAC): 1
SWC (#8 Rice (now AAC), #9 Texas A&M): 2
Independent (#5 Navy (now AAC), #10 Notre Dame): 2


ACC, Big 10, Big 7, PCC, and SEC: 7 playoff teams

Independents and other conferences: 5 playoff teams

.

1942 playoff teams:

1942 Conference champions:

AP#:
#1 Ohio St. (highest ranked conf. champ)
#2 Georgia (2nd highest ranked conf. champ)
#4 Tulsa^ (3rd highest ranked conf. champ) MVC Champion
#11 Texas (4th highest ranked conf. champ) SWC Champion
#12 Stanford (5th highest-ranked conf. champ)
#14 William & Mary^ (6th highest-ranked conf. champ)

^#4 Tulsa, currently in the AAC, played in the Sugar Bowl and would have had a first round bye in a 12-team CFP.

#11 William & Mary is now in the CAA.

1942 At-large teams:

AP#:
#3 Wisconsin
#5 Georgia Tech (then in SEC)
#6 Notre Dame FBS Independent
#7 Tennessee
#8 Boston College
#11 Michigan


1942 CFP teams by conference:

Western (now "Big Ten"): 3
SEC: 3
PCC (now "PAC-12"): 1
SWC (#10 Rice, now C-USA): 1
MVC: (#4 Tulsa, now AAC): 1
Southern (William & Mary, now CAA): 1
Independent (#6 Notre Dame, #8 Boston College): 2


Western, Big 6, PCC, and SEC: 7 playoff teams

Independents and other conferences: 5 playoff teams

.


Some examples of teams that were not members of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, PAC, or SEC, but would have received CFP bids before 1998, with the proposed 12-team format:

Air Force: 1958, 1985
Army (independent): 1943-1949, 1950, 1954, 1957, & 1958
BYU (WAC/MWC): 1979, 1980, 1983, 1984, 1996
Cornell (Ind): 1939
Colorado State (MWC): 1997
Darthmouth (Ind): 1937
Florida St. (Independent): 1979, 1980, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1990
Georgia Tech (Independent): 1966
Houston (Ind/SWC/Ind/CUSA/AAC) 1973, 1976, 1978, 1979, 1990
Miami (FL); Ind/Big East): 1954, 1956, 1966, 1981, 1983, 1985-1992,
Miami (OH; MAC): 1973, 1974, 1975
Navy (Ind/AAC) 1943-1945, 1954, 1957, 1960, 1963
Ohio (MAC): 1968
Pennsylvania (ind/Ivy League): 1936, 1945, 1947 (#4 conference champ)
Penn State (Independent): 1947, 1959, 1962, 1967-69, 1971-75, 1977, 1978, 1980-82, 1985, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996
Pitt (Independent/Big East): 1936-38, 1955, 1963, 1964, 1976, 1977, 1979-1982
Princeton (Ind/Ivy): 1951, 1952, 1964
Rice (current C-USA team): 1946, 1949, 1953, 1957
SMU (SWC/CUSA/AAC) (#3 (1947) top 4 conference champ) 1947, 1966, 1981, 1982, 1984
South Carolina (Independent): 1984
Syracuse (Ind/Big East): 1967, 1987, 1991, 1992
Texas Christian (SWC/WAC): 1938, 1951, 1955, 1958, 1959
Toledo (MAC): 1970, 1971
Tulane (SEC/CUSA) 1939, 1998
Tulsa (MVC) 1942, 1943, 1952, 1965
Utah (independent): 1994
Utah State (Skyline): 1961
Virginia Tech (Big East): 1995, 1996, 1999
West Virginia (SoCon/Ind/Big East): 1953, 1954, 1988, 1993
Wyoming (MWC): 1966, 1967
(This post was last modified: 06-13-2021 04:33 AM by JamesTKirk.)
06-13-2021 12:32 AM
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JamesTKirk Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Retrospective 12-Team Playoffs
.

Teams from these current AAC universities would have received bids to play in CFP playoffs in:

Cincinnati: 2009, 2020

ECU: 1991

Houston: 1973, 1976, 1978, 1979, 1990, 2015

Memphis: 2019

Navy: 1943, 1944, 1945, 1954, 1957, 1960, 1963

SMU: 1947, 1966, 1981, 1982, 1984

Tulane: 1939, 1998

Tulsa: 1942, 1943

UCF: 2013, 2017, 2018

This may not include every possible case, but it should be fairly comprehensive.

.
(This post was last modified: 06-13-2021 04:09 AM by JamesTKirk.)
06-13-2021 01:04 AM
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Post: #30
Retrospective 12-Team Playoffs
(06-13-2021 12:32 AM)JamesTKirk Wrote:  
(06-12-2021 04:00 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Counts based on the conference at the time are in the OP.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

It would be interesting to extend the research back, before 1998, the available data from the AP top 20 lists dating back to 1936, by the 1960-1970 Coaches Polls. Top-ranked co-champions could be identified as the conference champions.

There would be some interesting findings:

For example, these teams would have been the playoff teams in 1991:

1991 Conference champions:

AP#:
#1 Miami@ (highest ranked conf. champ) Big East Champion
#2 Washington (2nd highest ranked conf. champ)
#5 Alabama (3rd highest ranked conf. champ)
#6 Michigan (4th highest ranked conf. champ)
#12 Texas A&M (5th highest-ranked conf. champ) SWC Champion
#15 Nebraska* (6th highest-ranked conf. champ)

*Top-ranked Big 8 conference co-champion.
@ Now in ACC.

1991 At-large teams:

AP#:
#3 Penn State FBS Independent
#4 FSU FBS Independent
#7 Florida
#8 California
#9 East Carolina^ FBS Independent
#10 Iowa

^Now in AAC.
@Now in SEC.

1991 CFP teams by conference:

ACC: 0
Big Ten: 2
Big 8 (now, "Big 12"): 1
SEC: 2
PAC-10: (now "PAC-12"): 2
Big East: 1
SWC: 1
Independent (Penn St., FSU, & ECU (now AAC): 3


ACC, Big 10, Big 8, PAC-10, and SEC: 7 playoff teams

Independents and other conferences: 5 playoff teams


1984 playoff teams:

1984 Conference champions:

AP#:
#1 BYU@ (highest ranked conf. champ) WAC Champion
#2 Washington (2nd highest ranked conf. champ)
#3 Florida (3rd highest ranked conf. champ)
#4 Nebraska (4th highest ranked conf. champ)
#8 SMU*^ (5th highest-ranked conf. champ) SWC Champion
#9 UCLA (6th highest-ranked conf. champ)

*Top-ranked conference co-champion.
@Current Independent.
^Currently in the AAC.

1984 At-large teams:

AP#:
#5 Boston College FBS Independent
#6 Oklahoma
#7 Oklahoma St.
#10 USC
#11 South Carolina FBS Independent
#12 Maryland

1984 CFP teams by conference:

ACC: 1
Big Ten: 0
Big 8 (now, "Big 12"): 3
SEC: 1
PAC-10: (now "PAC-12"): 3
WAC: 1
SWC (now AAC): 1
Independent (BC, South Carolina): 3


ACC, Big 10, Big 8, PAC-10, and SEC: 8 playoff teams

Independents and other conferences: 4 playoff teams


.

1957 playoff teams:

1957 Conference champions:

#1 Auburn (highest ranked conf. champ)
#2 Ohio St. (2nd highest ranked conf. champ)
#4 Oklahoma (3rd highest ranked conf. champ)
#8 Rice^ (4th highest ranked conf. champ) SWC Champion
#12 Arizona St. (5th highest-ranked conf. champ) BIAA Champion^
#15 NC St. (6th highest-ranked conf. champ)

^#8 Rice (currently a C-USA team) played in the Cotton Bowl and would have had a first round bye in a 12-team 1957 CFP.

^BIAA=Border Intercollegiate Athletic Association

1957 At-large teams:

AP#
#3 Michigan State
#5 Navy^ FBS Independent
#6 Iowa
#7 Mississippi
#9 Texas A&M
#10 Notre Dame FBS Independent

^#5 Navy (currently in the AAC), might have played a round 1 (play-in) playoff game on its home field.

1957 CFP teams by conference:

ACC: 1
Big Ten: 3
Big 6 (now "Big 12"): 1
PCC (now "PAC-12"): 0
SEC: 2
BIAA (#12 Arizona St.; now PAC): 1
SWC (#8 Rice (now AAC), #9 Texas A&M): 2
Independent (#5 Navy (now AAC), #10 Notre Dame): 2


ACC, Big 10, Big 7, PCC, and SEC: 7 playoff teams

Independents and other conferences: 5 playoff teams

.

1942 playoff teams:

1942 Conference champions:

AP#:
#1 Ohio St. (highest ranked conf. champ)
#2 Georgia (2nd highest ranked conf. champ)
#4 Tulsa^ (3rd highest ranked conf. champ) MVC Champion
#11 Texas (4th highest ranked conf. champ) SWC Champion
#12 Stanford (5th highest-ranked conf. champ)
#14 William & Mary^ (6th highest-ranked conf. champ)

^#4 Tulsa, currently in the AAC, played in the Sugar Bowl and would have had a first round bye in a 12-team CFP.

#11 William & Mary is now in the CAA.

1942 At-large teams:

AP#:
#3 Wisconsin
#5 Georgia Tech (then in SEC)
#6 Notre Dame FBS Independent
#7 Tennessee
#8 Boston College
#11 Michigan


1942 CFP teams by conference:

Western (now "Big Ten"): 3
SEC: 3
PCC (now "PAC-12"): 1
SWC (#10 Rice, now C-USA): 1
MVC: (#4 Tulsa, now AAC): 1
Southern (William & Mary, now CAA): 1
Independent (#6 Notre Dame, #8 Boston College): 2


Western, Big 6, PCC, and SEC: 7 playoff teams

Independents and other conferences: 5 playoff teams

.


Some examples of teams that were not members of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, PAC, or SEC, but would have received CFP bids before 1998, with the proposed 12-team format:

Air Force: 1958, 1985
Army (independent): 1943-1949, 1950, 1954, 1957, & 1958
BYU (WAC/MWC): 1979, 1980, 1983, 1984, 1996
Cornell (Ind): 1939
Colorado State (MWC): 1997
Darthmouth (Ind): 1937
Florida St. (Independent): 1979, 1980, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1990
Georgia Tech (Independent): 1966
Houston (Ind/SWC/Ind/CUSA/AAC) 1973, 1976, 1978, 1979, 1990
Miami (FL); Ind/Big East): 1954, 1956, 1966, 1981, 1983, 1985-1992,
Miami (OH; MAC): 1973, 1974, 1975
Navy (Ind/AAC) 1943-1945, 1954, 1957, 1960, 1963
Ohio (MAC): 1968
Pennsylvania (ind/Ivy League): 1936, 1945, 1947 (#4 conference champ)
Penn State (Independent): 1947, 1959, 1962, 1967-69, 1971-75, 1977, 1978, 1980-82, 1985, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1996
Pitt (Independent/Big East): 1936-38, 1955, 1963, 1964, 1976, 1977, 1979-1982
Princeton (Ind/Ivy): 1951, 1952, 1964
Rice (current C-USA team): 1946, 1949, 1953, 1957
SMU (SWC/CUSA/AAC) (#3 (1947) top 4 conference champ) 1947, 1966, 1981, 1982, 1984
South Carolina (Independent): 1984
Syracuse (Ind/Big East): 1967, 1987, 1991, 1992
Texas Christian (SWC/WAC): 1938, 1951, 1955, 1958, 1959
Toledo (MAC): 1970, 1971
Tulane (SEC/CUSA) 1939, 1998
Tulsa (MVC) 1942, 1943, 1952, 1965
Utah (independent): 1994
Utah State (Skyline): 1961
Virginia Tech (Big East): 1995, 1996, 1999
West Virginia (SoCon/Ind/Big East): 1953, 1954, 1988, 1993
Wyoming (MWC): 1966, 1967


Ha! I knew if you went back far enough my Rice Owls would pop up!

Surprised me though, that Rice’s opponent in that Cotton Bowl following the ‘57 season (Alabama) was not ranked highly enough to make the top-11 cutoff.

With a first round bye, that ‘57 Rice team would have probably run the table to win the National Championship!
06-13-2021 06:43 AM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Retrospective 12-Team Playoffs
That’s some interesting data there—I’m not sure that it tells us much about the future though as I don’t think the 6-6 would fly prior to the consolidation of the major programs into the BCS 6 which took effect in 1996. (Especially when the Big East formed and you then had 7 major conferences from 1992-1995.)
06-13-2021 07:24 AM
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TIGER-PAUL Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Retrospective 12-Team Playoffs
How many P5 champs left out?
06-13-2021 05:57 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Retrospective 12-Team Playoffs
(06-13-2021 05:57 PM)TIGER-PAUL Wrote:  How many P5 champs left out?

I included any AQ/P5 conference champs who didn't make the playoffs in the last column of the chart in the OP.
06-13-2021 06:04 PM
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goofus Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Retrospective 12-Team Playoffs
1 minor nitpick. In 1984, you list both Washington and UCLA as conference champions.
06-13-2021 06:41 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Retrospective 12-Team Playoffs
(06-13-2021 06:41 PM)goofus Wrote:  1 minor nitpick. In 1984, you list both Washington and UCLA as conference champions.

I only went back to 1998.

Edit: Oh, you mean Kirk. Got it.
(This post was last modified: 06-13-2021 07:28 PM by Nerdlinger.)
06-13-2021 07:27 PM
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