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CFP Expansion to 12 Teams
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FloridaJag Offline
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Post: #21
Exclamation RE: CFP Expansion to 12 Teams
(06-16-2021 10:21 AM)Middle Ages Wrote:  
(06-11-2021 02:52 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(06-11-2021 12:35 PM)MJY Wrote:  
(06-11-2021 11:03 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  While it does statistically improve the g5 chances, I'm betting that it will much more frequently favor p5. For every g5 team that gets in, there will be 2+ more p5 teams that get in.

True, but hasn't the current system been 100% P5, 0% G5 to date?

My point is simply that the deciding factor was that more games meant more money for p5, which is part of what drives the chasm between p and g 5. The fact that it may also benefit g5 on occasion is incidental.

It's like saying there will be more scraps from a table that seats 12 than from one that seats 8, but the point of the bigger table is to create more food to be given to the elite, whether or not they are at the table. The 'rich' will get even fatter, while a few of the 'poor' will get an occasional meal.

I'm not disagreeing with any of your comments, but let's acknowledge that this is a positive step, and one that I didn't expect to see for years, if ever. I thought a split between P5 and G5 was more likely than postseason inclusion. Is this perfect? No. We can still win our conference and go undefeated and not make this playoff. But at least one G5 conference champ will make it - which makes our need to get out of CUSA even more desperate. Coastal Carolina was probably an outlier last year. I would expect the G5 spot to go to AAC or MWC most years.

This is a big move for the CFP. I wouldn't expect that 16, 24, or 32 jump anytime soon. Hopefully the more inclusive playoff opportunity will cause some dispersion among the talent in recruiting. I don't anticipate a big movement of 4 and 5 stars, but more schools at least have a chance in this set up, which is meaningfully better than today.
Not perfect but better. There is no scenario where the money distribution won't favor the big P5's

No need to expand past 16 teams.

The 12 team playoff is a nice jump but the first game bye will become a problem. The only way to fix this is a 16 team playoff.

10 Conference champs + 6 best of the rest. The Conference Championships games adds drama and become crucial for the loser to do a good job for the rankings. The rankings will be used seed the rest of the rest.

The remaining six teams will probably be the 2nd place teams from the P5 plus ND.

Then .......the SEC will want a third or 4th team in the playoff. ND must join a conference at that point.

This will not force Notre Dame to join a conference but it will turn up the heat.
06-16-2021 10:31 AM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #22
RE: CFP Expansion to 12 Teams
(06-16-2021 10:31 AM)FloridaJag Wrote:  
(06-16-2021 10:21 AM)Middle Ages Wrote:  
(06-11-2021 02:52 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(06-11-2021 12:35 PM)MJY Wrote:  
(06-11-2021 11:03 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  While it does statistically improve the g5 chances, I'm betting that it will much more frequently favor p5. For every g5 team that gets in, there will be 2+ more p5 teams that get in.

True, but hasn't the current system been 100% P5, 0% G5 to date?

My point is simply that the deciding factor was that more games meant more money for p5, which is part of what drives the chasm between p and g 5. The fact that it may also benefit g5 on occasion is incidental.

It's like saying there will be more scraps from a table that seats 12 than from one that seats 8, but the point of the bigger table is to create more food to be given to the elite, whether or not they are at the table. The 'rich' will get even fatter, while a few of the 'poor' will get an occasional meal.

I'm not disagreeing with any of your comments, but let's acknowledge that this is a positive step, and one that I didn't expect to see for years, if ever. I thought a split between P5 and G5 was more likely than postseason inclusion. Is this perfect? No. We can still win our conference and go undefeated and not make this playoff. But at least one G5 conference champ will make it - which makes our need to get out of CUSA even more desperate. Coastal Carolina was probably an outlier last year. I would expect the G5 spot to go to AAC or MWC most years.

This is a big move for the CFP. I wouldn't expect that 16, 24, or 32 jump anytime soon. Hopefully the more inclusive playoff opportunity will cause some dispersion among the talent in recruiting. I don't anticipate a big movement of 4 and 5 stars, but more schools at least have a chance in this set up, which is meaningfully better than today.
Not perfect but better. There is no scenario where the money distribution won't favor the big P5's

No need to expand past 16 teams.

The 12 team playoff is a nice jump but the first game bye will become a problem. The only way to fix this is a 16 team playoff.

10 Conference champs + 6 best of the rest. The Conference Championships games adds drama and become crucial for the loser to do a good job for the rankings. The rankings will be used seed the rest of the rest.

The remaining six teams will probably be the 2nd place teams from the P5 plus ND.

Then .......the SEC will want a third or 4th team in the playoff. ND must join a conference at that point.

This will not force Notre Dame to join a conference but it will turn up the heat.

I like this a bit better as at least it morel likely gives g5 6mm and p5 10mm (just as a generic).... and I agree with you MA that it will always favor them... UNLESS we totally change the paradigm.

One of my concerns is that a school like UH could completely sell out their academics to make sure they were the consistently THE g5 in the mix, which would be unfair to schools like Rice who wouldn't do that... and that sems antithetical to amateur college sports.... which should be the purpose of the NCAA.

What would be interesting is if the TV revenue were instead divided FIRST by covering say 200 athletic scholarships at every D1 school... regardless of what that number is per school... so that the cost of a 'better' education is not a detriment to athletic success... Take care of academics first... and then let things like donations and ticket sales make the difference between how much p5 can spend vs g5. That's just back of napkin math and may need more vetting, but I don't think trying to eliminate/reduce the negative correlation between academics and athletics, where money spent on one comes at the expense of the other is a bad idea, in fact I think it should be the goal. OF COURSE this would favor a school like Rice, but shouldn't it?? It would also favor a school like UT.
06-16-2021 11:56 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #23
RE: CFP Expansion to 12 Teams
Every expansion is good for us. The NCAA playoffs that now have 68 teams started with, I believe, 8.

12 is not enough, nor is 16. But they are steps to the better.

I disagree that 16 would include 10 conference champs. Why would the P5 want to waste 5 spots on G5 champs that could go to P5 teams?
06-16-2021 03:50 PM
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