(06-10-2021 01:52 PM)CliftonAve Wrote: (06-10-2021 01:25 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: This is a dream scenario for Notre Dame. And BYU. 6 at-large bids for them to take!
Notre Dame for sure, possibly BYU if they have fewer than two losses. Most of those six at large will be the runner ups will come from the SEC, B10 and possibly the other three P5 schools if it is the right brand.
The Indy’s not name Notre Dame and BYU are going to have to run the table. It will be interesting to see how not having a CCG hurts them in rankings going forward
I don't believe that BYU or any other non-P5 team could earn a #12 ranking and a potential at-large bid without going undefeated.
Coastal Carolina went 11-0 in 2020 and yet were only ranked #12, behind multiple P5 teams with 2 or 3 losses (Oklahoma (2), Florida (3), Georgia (2), and Iowa St. (3).
BYU went 10-1 in 2020, and was ranked #16th. One loss may be enough to knock a non-P5 team out of the hunt for an at-large bid.
None of the non-P5 teams with 1 loss in 2019 were ranked higher than #17th.
Houston went 12-1 in 2015 and was ranked #18.
UCF, Fresno St., and Northern Illinois all finished at 11-1 or 12-1 in 2013, but none were ranked higher than #15th.
Even a 13-0 non-P5 may not be able to earn a #12 ranking (13-0 Western Michigan was ranked #15th in 2016).
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Dating back to 2013, no non-P5 team with one loss has ever been ranked in the top #12 after the final week of the regular season.
It thus seems that BYU will have a strong incentive to join a conference, since that would make it theoretically possible for a 1-loss BYU team to make it into the College Football Playoffs.
NOTE: The only time that any BYU team in the history of the program (dating back to 1922) ever went undefeated was in 1984, when they went 13-0 and won the national championship. In contrast, at least 8 BYU teams have finished the regular season with a single loss. Thus, they've been 8 times as likely to have a 1-loss team as they've had to have an undefeated team.
This would seem sufficient evidence to prompt BYU to join a conference if they want to compete for a national championship.