(06-10-2021 04:28 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 04:07 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  The funny part: THIS is the one clear path that the AAC had to the whole P6 movement becoming reality. If they win that bid every year, then they are effectively a pseudo power conference in terms of championship access.

But your ranking is going to based on who you played so what is stopping a program from CUSA to load up the schedule on the premise it will get them a first round bye, recruit to it successfully and then roll through conference play to become the next Boise State?

That may be the case, but BYU has played more P5 teams than any other non-P5 teams, and their strategy of going independent so they could play a lot of P5 teams hasn't gotten them anywhere so far.

Their only highly successful season in the past decade was 2020, when they went 12-1 after rescheduling all their canceled P5 games vs. non-P5 teams. As a result, they ended the season as the nation's 11th-ranked team in the final AP top 25.

The last time BYU had a nationally-ranked team in the final AP top 25 had been in 2009, when they were still members of the MWC.

Similarly, Coastal Carolina went 11-0 during the regular season, playing only one P5 team (lowly Kansas), and yet they ended up being ranked #12 in the final CFP rankings.

This just goes to show that it's not necessary for non-P5 teams to schedule and beat quality P5 teams in order to end a season in the upper half of the top 25.

(06-10-2021 03:53 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 03:36 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 03:27 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 03:07 PM)solohawks Wrote:  It's astonishing to me ND signed off on a plan where they were permanently disadvantaged.....unless

This is the most intriguing aspect of the proposal. Having CCG winners seeded 1-4 ensures geographic and conference diversity in the quarterfinal round. Maybe they were worried about too many teams from one region in the quarterfinals hurting the ratings.

The only thing that I can think of here is that they're using the bowls as quarterfinals and they're essentially maximizing some semblance of tie-ins there (e.g. the Rose Bowl would always get a top 4 Big Ten or Pac-12 champ with the higher ranked going to the Rose if both leagues are in the top 4). Maybe ND sees this as similar to the current Contract Bowl system or BCS AQ system and that's a concession on their part.

Otherwise, from a competitive standpoint, I believe that a top 4 Notre Dame (or any other school) should get a top 4 seed just as they would in the current system. Frankly, it would be even more important in the new system since a bye would now be involved.

This is where we have to seriously wait out the details. If, as Nicole Auerbach posted, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be hosted by the bowls (i.e. the NY6 bowls), that would seem to do away with the contract bowl relationships, which was the basis for the whole "Power 5." This wording also seems to leave open the prospect of one of the Autonomous 5 champs being left out (e.g. Oregon last year). That sure seems like a tough sell to me.

What I do think, though, is that this will accelerate the move to divisionless CCGs. I can't imagine conferences won't move heaven and earth to avoid a disaster such as 2018 Pitt going into the conference championship game at 7-5 simply to avoid the risk of them upsetting Clemson and then losing out on their champ going to a bowl. Divisionless they could have at least sent ranked 9-3 Syracuse to avoid that happening.

USFFan

Well, the rumor and talk about the P5 becoming the P4 will definitely continue.

(06-10-2021 04:46 PM)JamesTKirk Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 04:28 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 04:07 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  The funny part: THIS is the one clear path that the AAC had to the whole P6 movement becoming reality. If they win that bid every year, then they are effectively a pseudo power conference in terms of championship access.

But your ranking is going to based on who you played so what is stopping a program from CUSA to load up the schedule on the premise it will get them a first round bye, recruit to it successfully and then roll through conference play to become the next Boise State?

That may be the case, but BYU has played more P5 teams than any other non-P5 teams, and their strategy of going independent so they could play a lot of P5 teams hasn't gotten them anywhere so far.

Their only highly successful season in the past decade was 2020, when they went 12-1 after rescheduling all their canceled P5 games vs. non-P5 teams. As a result, they ended the season as the nation's 11th-ranked team in the final AP top 25.

The last time BYU had a nationally-ranked team in the final AP top 25 had been in 2009, when they were still members of the MWC.

Similarly, Coastal Carolina went 11-0 during the regular season, playing only one P5 team (lowly Kansas), and yet they ended up being ranked #12 in the final CFP rankings.

This just goes to show that it's not necessary for non-P5 teams to schedule and beat quality P5 teams in order to end a season in the upper half of the top 25.

Its not necessary but BYU can put an average schedule strength were if they were to go undefeated they'll end up in the Top 10, which is about the line they'll need to guarantee a spot figuring at most 2 of the six conference champions fall outside the Top 12 taking up slots.

BYU and UConn can pull it off but the other independents don't have the clout. Army is flat out too scared to schedule up.

(06-10-2021 01:34 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m not a fan of the idea that the top 4 champs get the byes. If a non-champ is in the top 4, they deserve that 1st round bye.

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but it’s not fair to a 12-0 ND team to get seeded 5th on the grounds that they lack a CCG trophy.

As I said on another thread yesterday, this was the only way to prevent a ticket sales problem.

(06-10-2021 04:45 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

Actually, Mandel left out part of Swarbrick's comments.

What Jack said in full was :


"I look forward to never hearing again about how we played one less game or don't have a conference championship."


That sure sounds like ND is still fully committed to being a football independent and that this proposal doesn't change that at all.

(06-10-2021 04:58 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 04:45 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

That sure sounds like ND is still fully committed to being a football independent and that this proposal doesn't change that at all.

Yep, the deal sucks for us to be honest but who cares. Go earn it.

(06-10-2021 05:00 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 04:58 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 04:45 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

That sure sounds like ND is still fully committed to being a football independent and that this proposal doesn't change that at all.

Yep, the deal sucks for us to be honest but who cares. Go earn it.

Eh, you trade no bye for no conference championship game.

It gives ND 6 at large spots to compete for.

It keeps ND indy indefinitely.

As you said, tee up the ball and go earn it.

(06-10-2021 05:01 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 05:00 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 04:58 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 04:45 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

That sure sounds like ND is still fully committed to being a football independent and that this proposal doesn't change that at all.

Yep, the deal sucks for us to be honest but who cares. Go earn it.

Eh, you trade no bye for no conference championship game.

It gives ND 6 at large spots to compete for.

It keeps ND indy indefinitely.

As you said, tee up the ball and go earn it.

From a practical standpoint, ND will need only be ranked 9th or 10th to be assured of a spot. Ranked 11th or 12th and they might get lucky. Ranked below that in any year and they are out.

(06-10-2021 04:40 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 04:31 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

No, Bob, most people did NOT underestimate the stupidity of thinking 4 was the optimal number...

USFFan

(06-10-2021 05:00 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 04:58 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 04:45 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

That sure sounds like ND is still fully committed to being a football independent and that this proposal doesn't change that at all.

Yep, the deal sucks for us to be honest but who cares. Go earn it.

Or you could, I don't know, join a conference.

(06-10-2021 05:12 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 05:00 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 04:58 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 04:45 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

That sure sounds like ND is still fully committed to being a football independent and that this proposal doesn't change that at all.

Yep, the deal sucks for us to be honest but who cares. Go earn it.

Or you could, I don't know, join a conference.

See all of my posts.

That ain't happening.

And you know what, that is just fine.

Pete Thamel and Pete Sampson lay it out quite well (I don't know how to copy/post tweets here) below.



Pete Thamel

@PeteThamel

This is pretty simple. ND doesn't have a conference title game, so they'd have extra rest. They'd also get to host a game in South Bend in December. There's a lot to like about that. ND AD Jack Swarbrick help build the model, so ND is going to be on board with it.
Quote Tweet


Pete Sampson
@PeteSampson_
· 2h

Again, not everything about independence is a plus for Notre Dame. But it’s about the total sum, not winning every battle.

The fact Notre Dame can’t have a first-round bye because it’s independent is a loss. But stronger independence w/ more Playoff access is a much bigger win.

(06-10-2021 05:12 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 05:00 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 04:58 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 04:45 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

That sure sounds like ND is still fully committed to being a football independent and that this proposal doesn't change that at all.

Yep, the deal sucks for us to be honest but who cares. Go earn it.

Or you could, I don't know, join a conference.

Nah, just roll with it and see what happens. Unless this hurts recruiting nothing changes.

(06-10-2021 05:01 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 05:00 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 04:58 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 04:45 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

That sure sounds like ND is still fully committed to being a football independent and that this proposal doesn't change that at all.

Yep, the deal sucks for us to be honest but who cares. Go earn it.

Eh, you trade no bye for no conference championship game.

It gives ND 6 at large spots to compete for.

It keeps ND indy indefinitely.

As you said, tee up the ball and go earn it.

It could be sneakily beneficial for ND in a QF if the QF are on NYD.

ND rolls into the QF with 13 games having last played 2 or 3 weeks ago.

Rusty champ rolls into the QF with 13 games having last played a month ago.

Glad they are looking to go with a more open route than the one most speculated. I also would have assumed the quarterfinals would be home games as well.

I think it disincentivizes realignment. If Frank is right and CCGs will become divisionless (as they probably should be), then the only reason to switch conferences would be if the money difference is too great to stay where you are.

To my mind that means only Oklahoma has a decision, stay in the Big 12 and make (a lot) less money but have a better path to the Playoff, or move to the SEC (or B1G), face a more difficult path to the Playoff -- being ranked top 10 still gets you in (cannot imagine more than 2 conference champions outside the top 10 very often). There is no incentive for anyone else anywhere in P5. Their moving, should it happen, would trigger a single replacement move by the Big 12, or none at all, just dropping to 8 games.

My other observation of Notre Dame "losing" it's bye and being allowed a 13th game, is that you'll see a clamoring from other schools to be free to schedule a 13th game if they are not in the CCG. Certainly the B1G and SEC will have some schools on the cusp of top 10 but not in the CCG.

That's just floating thoughts off the top of my head, I don't hold any of this with much conviction.

(06-10-2021 03:57 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 03:48 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(06-10-2021 03:44 PM)Eggszecutor Wrote:  I like the guarantee of the four byes going to the top-rated conference champions. Those schools have to play an extra game (their conference title game), so they earn the bye. I think Notre Dame is okay with this since they won't be playing a conference title game as an independent. Their "conference title game"/13th game could easily be a home game EACH YEAR hosting the first round. Sounds like a win-win for them all around.

That must be it

Well done I hadn't even thought of that

They'll get a monster gate for hosting on campus and if you're paid bonuses for each appearance having the extra game fills the coffers. I think its about lining pockets. This is a money grab.

I have a hard time imagining that the first round hosts would get to keep the revenue from ticket sales and ancillary revenues while not having the travel costs their opponents have to incur. I would think that revenues from first round games would go into the general revenue pool just like ticket sales from the neutral site games.

Just because a committee made this recommendation that doesn't necessarily mean it will be accepted. Are the 130 university presidents cut out of the decision making process? A lot of the details that haven't come out yet could be problematic for some of them.

If first round losers don't get to play in a bowl, that's a lot of fans (that is, donors) who won't get to attend a postseason game at an attractive winter vacation destination, and players who won't get their swag bags.

(06-10-2021 06:17 PM)ken d Wrote:  Just because a committee made this recommendation that doesn't necessarily mean it will be accepted. Are the 130 university presidents cut out of the decision making process? A lot of the details that haven't come out yet could be problematic for some of them.

If first round losers don't get to play in a bowl, that's a lot of fans (that is, donors) who won't get to attend a postseason game at an attractive winter vacation destination, and players who won't get their swag bags.

What fans/donors/anyone would rather play in the Outback Bowl vs the first round of a playoff?

Any conference champ will need to be at least #10 in the CFP rankings to be deemed one of the Top 4 conference champions for a bye. It would take a rare event that #4 through #9 are all at-large teams for that to happen. But it doesn't matter if you are P5 or G5 it would be the same #10 minimum to be elevated to #4 for the playoff.

For the minimum ranking, the P5/G5 both have the same minimum standard. All the G5 champ has to do is be the highest rated of the G5, so they could easily be unranked in fact ranked as low as #72 behind all the P5 and independents.

The same actually applies for the P5 as well because their might only be 5 conference champions in the Top 25 so they could be that 6th highest rated champ but outside the Top 25, however they would have to be rated at least below 1 G5 champ.

So it can go either way where the highest G5 champ is not Top 25 or the G5 is up there with a Top 25 champ but an unranked P5 champ is the 6th highest rated champion.

(06-10-2021 06:17 PM)ken d Wrote:  If first round losers don't get to play in a bowl, that's a lot of fans (that is, donors) who won't get to attend a postseason game at an attractive winter vacation destination, and players who won't get their swag bags.

There would only be 8 teams in the first round. Only 4 schools are not going to get the enjoyment of a bowl game.