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Lotsa smoke for some fires...
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blazr Away
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Post: #1
Lotsa smoke for some fires...
I may have to just get cryogenically frozen until the Jax St. game. No forum or Twitter feed will be safe from "reports" and "retractions" this Summer...isn't the world of immediate posting of info, to beat another outlet, has its downsides. From Pete Thamel who is generally on point...

https://sports.yahoo.com/college-footbal...00023.html
(This post was last modified: 06-10-2021 03:17 AM by blazr.)
06-10-2021 03:13 AM
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blazers9911 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Lotsa smoke for some fires...
It sounds like this is pretty much a done deal, assuming nothing falls apart at the end. We will see, but I think college football is entering dangerous territory if they continue as is. The playoff is essentially Alabama, Clemson, OSU/Oklahoma, and then your random one off, and for the most part has not been competitive, especially in the semis. We will see what happens, but I’m all for expanding, and the more teams they let in, the better it is for us.
(This post was last modified: 06-10-2021 08:50 AM by blazers9911.)
06-10-2021 07:26 AM
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blazr Away
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Post: #3
RE: Lotsa smoke for some fires...
(06-10-2021 07:26 AM)blazers9911 Wrote:  It sounds like this is pretty much a done deal, assuming nothing falls apart at the end. We will see, but I think college football is entering dangerous territory if they continue as is. The playoff is essentially Alabama, Clemson, OSU/Oklahoma, and then your random one of fits very stale, and for the most part has not been competitive, especially in the semis. We will see what happens, but I’m all for expanding, and the more teams they let in, the better it is for us.

Yeah. I'm just one guy and have never been a "CFB wake and baker" but I just don't even watch big cartel games anymore unless it's close at the very end. Every game is THE GAME OF THE CENTURY THAT COULD HAVE HUGE IMPACT ON THE CFP!!. I don't really even care that much about who's fighting for the NY6 spot.

But, according to Thamel sources, 8 is problematic and the only logical system after that is 12. Now the existential question, if there are more slots for G5 teams do we want a) dominate CUSA to guarantee one every year, or b) move to AAC for the opponents we actually care about?

I think the obvious answer is (b) and if we can't earn a spot w/ higher budget and higher profile opponents, that's on us.
06-10-2021 07:45 AM
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DuelingDragon Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Lotsa smoke for some fires...
12 seems like it's going to be the number that has the better chance at consensus. The SEC and Big Ten want more at-large opportunities, the G5 want a guaranteed slot and the Pac-12 and Big 12 want every P5 conference to have an autobid.

6 doesn't achieve those, 8 leaves top-10 teams out of the playoff (including potentially, teams that could be ranked in the top 5), and that brings you to 12.
06-10-2021 08:19 AM
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blazers9911 Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Lotsa smoke for some fires...
(06-10-2021 07:45 AM)blazr Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 07:26 AM)blazers9911 Wrote:  It sounds like this is pretty much a done deal, assuming nothing falls apart at the end. We will see, but I think college football is entering dangerous territory if they continue as is. The playoff is essentially Alabama, Clemson, OSU/Oklahoma, and then your random one of fits very stale, and for the most part has not been competitive, especially in the semis. We will see what happens, but I’m all for expanding, and the more teams they let in, the better it is for us.

Yeah. I'm just one guy and have never been a "CFB wake and baker" but I just don't even watch big cartel games anymore unless it's close at the very end. Every game is THE GAME OF THE CENTURY THAT COULD HAVE HUGE IMPACT ON THE CFP!!. I don't really even care that much about who's fighting for the NY6 spot.

But, according to Thamel sources, 8 is problematic and the only logical system after that is 12. Now the existential question, if there are more slots for G5 teams do we want a) dominate CUSA to guarantee one every year, or b) move to AAC for the opponents we actually care about?

I think the obvious answer is (b) and if we can't earn a spot w/ higher budget and higher profile opponents, that's on us.

The one G5 bid is going to be curious if this moves forward. Are we better off in CUSA and dodging the UCF’s and Louisiana’s and Boise’s, or are we better off in a better conference, but almost guaranteed to have more losses? It’s going to be a tough question that we won’t know the answer to immediately. If the AAC does come calling though, we join.

With 12 teams, it’s likely that every top ten team will make the playoff most years.(you can have the off years where a couple of p5 winners and the g5 team aren’t top 10, but I doubt that will be often). The question then becomes what is the best path forward for G5 teams to get into the top 10?
06-10-2021 08:56 AM
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Post: #6
RE: Lotsa smoke for some fires...
(06-10-2021 07:26 AM)blazers9911 Wrote:  It sounds like this is pretty much a done deal, assuming nothing falls apart at the end. We will see, but I think college football is entering dangerous territory if they continue as is. The playoff is essentially Alabama, Clemson, OSU/Oklahoma, and then your random one off, and for the most part has not been competitive, especially in the semis. We will see what happens, but I’m all for expanding, and the more teams they let in, the better it is for us.

Agreed. Sticking with the status quo will lead to college football becoming a regional sport with the same teams always winning which lead to a decline in overall interest on the national level.
06-10-2021 08:58 AM
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HiddenDragon Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Lotsa smoke for some fires...
College football is already in a perilous situation for the G5. The have nots are hanging by a thread with no plan on how to survive without the P5. Just hoping for the best and not ready for the worst.

If this new playoff system is implemented the G5 will still have minimal access. The rich will continue to get richer and the poor will get even poorer. It is what it is.
(This post was last modified: 06-10-2021 09:14 AM by HiddenDragon.)
06-10-2021 08:59 AM
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hooverblazer Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Lotsa smoke for some fires...
(06-10-2021 08:56 AM)blazers9911 Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 07:45 AM)blazr Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 07:26 AM)blazers9911 Wrote:  It sounds like this is pretty much a done deal, assuming nothing falls apart at the end. We will see, but I think college football is entering dangerous territory if they continue as is. The playoff is essentially Alabama, Clemson, OSU/Oklahoma, and then your random one of fits very stale, and for the most part has not been competitive, especially in the semis. We will see what happens, but I’m all for expanding, and the more teams they let in, the better it is for us.

Yeah. I'm just one guy and have never been a "CFB wake and baker" but I just don't even watch big cartel games anymore unless it's close at the very end. Every game is THE GAME OF THE CENTURY THAT COULD HAVE HUGE IMPACT ON THE CFP!!. I don't really even care that much about who's fighting for the NY6 spot.

But, according to Thamel sources, 8 is problematic and the only logical system after that is 12. Now the existential question, if there are more slots for G5 teams do we want a) dominate CUSA to guarantee one every year, or b) move to AAC for the opponents we actually care about?

I think the obvious answer is (b) and if we can't earn a spot w/ higher budget and higher profile opponents, that's on us.

The one G5 bid is going to be curious if this moves forward. Are we better off in CUSA and dodging the UCF’s and Louisiana’s and Boise’s, or are we better off in a better conference, but almost guaranteed to have more losses? It’s going to be a tough question that we won’t know the answer to immediately. If the AAC does come calling though, we join.

With 12 teams, it’s likely that every top ten team will make the playoff most years.(you can have the off years where a couple of p5 winners and the g5 team aren’t top 10, but I doubt that will be often). The question then becomes what is the best path forward for G5 teams to get into the top 10?

I think the criteria will be the "highest ranked" G5. CUSA's strength of schedule won't be strong enough most years to get over that hurdle in my opinion. I think playoff expansion pushes the need even more for the AAC to expand. They could add as many as 3 to clearly separate themselves as the best G5 league such that their champion basically has a lock on the G5 bid most years. For instance, I wonder if a guaranteed G5 slot may be enough to entice BYU to join the AAC.
06-10-2021 09:14 AM
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hooverblazer Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Lotsa smoke for some fires...
(06-10-2021 08:59 AM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  College football is already in a perilous situation for the G5. The have nots are hanging by a thread with no plan on how to survive without the P5. Just hoping for the best and not ready for the worst.

If this new playoff system is implemented the G5 will still have minimal access. The rich will continue to get richer and the poor will get even poorer. It is what it is.

The rich will get richer, but G5 should make more money as well (but perhaps the divide would widen). Dennis Dodd reported that a TV contract for a 12 team playoff will be 2-3x larger than the existing contract.
06-10-2021 09:16 AM
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HiddenDragon Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Lotsa smoke for some fires...
And why do you think the P5 should give the G5 more money? Just because the money will increase doesn't mean the P5 is going to want to share it with the G5.
(This post was last modified: 06-10-2021 09:32 AM by HiddenDragon.)
06-10-2021 09:30 AM
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hooverblazer Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Lotsa smoke for some fires...
(06-10-2021 09:30 AM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  And why do you think the P5 should give the G5 more money?

No guaranteed access now vs a guaranteed spot in the future playoff. The guaranteed playoff spot should be worth more money than no slot.
06-10-2021 09:32 AM
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HiddenDragon Offline
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RE: Lotsa smoke for some fires...
(06-10-2021 09:32 AM)hooverblazer Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 09:30 AM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  And why do you think the P5 should give the G5 more money?

No guaranteed access now vs a guaranteed spot in the future playoff. The guaranteed playoff spot should be worth more money than no slot.

So this new 12 team playoff is going to guarantee the G5 a playoff spot?
06-10-2021 09:33 AM
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Post: #13
RE: Lotsa smoke for some fires...
I think that it is a step in the right direction. However, until there is an autobid for the conference champions, the playing field will not be level.
06-10-2021 09:45 AM
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Post: #14
RE: Lotsa smoke for some fires...
(06-10-2021 09:33 AM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 09:32 AM)hooverblazer Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 09:30 AM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  And why do you think the P5 should give the G5 more money?

No guaranteed access now vs a guaranteed spot in the future playoff. The guaranteed playoff spot should be worth more money than no slot.

So this new 12 team playoff is going to guarantee the G5 a playoff spot?

Should be more than a spot.

I’m not trying to see all of these rematches from the regular season or conference championships in the same playoff.
Bama vs LSU, UGA, UF, or TAMU
Clemson vs FSU
Ohio State vs Wisconsin or Penn state
Oklahoma vs Oklahoma state, Baylor
Oregon vs USC, Arizona State
(This post was last modified: 06-10-2021 09:47 AM by BlazinBham.)
06-10-2021 09:45 AM
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hooverblazer Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Lotsa smoke for some fires...
(06-10-2021 09:33 AM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 09:32 AM)hooverblazer Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 09:30 AM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  And why do you think the P5 should give the G5 more money?

No guaranteed access now vs a guaranteed spot in the future playoff. The guaranteed playoff spot should be worth more money than no slot.

So this new 12 team playoff is going to guarantee the G5 a playoff spot?

From the article:

"A 12-team version would answer a lot of the immediate looming issues with the College Football Playoff — lack of diversity of programs, access for Group of Five and the erosion of the importance of supposed top-tier bowl games outside the CFP thanks to player opt-outs.

How would 12 teams work? The basic thought is automatic bids for the five major conferences — which also juices up their league title games as play-in games — and one for the highest ranked Group of Five champion. The other six spots would be at-large bids. That gives automatic bids to some of the have-nots and more potential spots for the more powerful leagues, and compromise is important in a vote where consensus is needed."
06-10-2021 09:57 AM
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HiddenDragon Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Lotsa smoke for some fires...
So still only one spot for the G5. I stand by my previous comments. If you think one of those at large bids will go to a G5 school I got some property in Mountain Brook to sell you on the cheap.
(This post was last modified: 06-10-2021 10:09 AM by HiddenDragon.)
06-10-2021 10:03 AM
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Post: #17
RE: Lotsa smoke for some fires...
(06-10-2021 10:03 AM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  So still only one spot for the G5. I stand by my previous comments. If you think one of those at large bids will go to a G5 school I got some property in Mountain Brook to sell you on the cheap.

It’s not fair but it’s a hell of a lot better than having no chance which is what we have today
06-10-2021 10:17 AM
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blazers9911 Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Lotsa smoke for some fires...
It’s one guaranteed spot, but that doesn’t mean 2-3 teams couldn’t make it. It will take a series of events to make that happen, but this past year was probably a prime example of how a few g5 teams could get in. I believe they’ll still use the committee:

1-4 get byes
5-12 get in based on the following:
Conference champions not in the top 4
G5 #1 team
Remaining teams on the list in numerical order

Then teams ranked 5-8 will host 9-12

Can multiple teams from the same conference be in the top 4?(ie, does a conference championship count for more)
Does the G5 champ get the 12 seed most years?
What happens if #2 undefeated Oregon host unranked 7-5 USC in the PAC 12 championship and loses? Does the PAC 12 earn another birth in that case?
06-10-2021 10:24 AM
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Post: #19
RE: Lotsa smoke for some fires...
There will be a guaranteed G5 spot. The fact that the trains are moving pretty quickly on this is the best evidence that the various agendas are aligning around 12.

i think expansion to 12 and an autobid for highest-ranked G5 disincentivizes the coast-to-coast dream for the AAC no matter how much fans want to war-game it. The AAC already will get the slot most years already and that isn't going to change. There is a big resource gap between the AAC and the rest of the G5. Adding 3 teams from the West doesn't really help that goal. It's an attack to weaken others more than strengthen themselves. And those teams also make life harder for themselves, not easier. Harder schedules, travel logistics, etc., with no guarantee beyond what you already enjoy and no major revenue bump. I don't think the money works. I get why the fans would want it, and I get why you would explore it. I just don't think it works or it already would have happened. I don't see the math changing enough to override that financial reality.

BYU isn't coming either, IMO. They are scheduling better as an independent, keeping all their money and remaining a national brand. They aren't Notre Dame, but if they are top 10 they will get an at-large and will be able to schedule home-and-homes with P5s as they are doing now. I don't think they seriously consider giving up independence unless they actually go unbeaten and get left out of an expanded playoff.

Now that the West Coast thing is dead, and I think it is, AAC will first see if they can get away with 11 members for as long as possible.

This is all the best-case scenario for UAB and any others who might aspire to AAC membership. Another year to build.
06-10-2021 10:38 AM
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HiddenDragon Offline
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RE: Lotsa smoke for some fires...
(06-10-2021 10:17 AM)UAB Schnauzer Wrote:  
(06-10-2021 10:03 AM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  So still only one spot for the G5. I stand by my previous comments. If you think one of those at large bids will go to a G5 school I got some property in Mountain Brook to sell you on the cheap.

It’s not fair but it’s a hell of a lot better than having no chance which is what we have today

How can it be better when nothing is really going to change? Those six at large bids will go to P5 teams. I'm not falling for the banana in the tailpipe trick.

Better is guaranteeing the G5 two spots in a 12 team playoff.
(This post was last modified: 06-10-2021 11:58 AM by HiddenDragon.)
06-10-2021 11:56 AM
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