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Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
Here's my proposal for a structure.

P5 champions get an auto-bid = 5
Highest ranked G5 champion gets an auto-bid = 1
At large teams from any background = 6

Top 4 teams get a first round bye.

Seeds 5-8 get to host a first round game on campus.

Top 4 seeds will host the second round on campus.

Semis are hosted at bowl sites. They're bid out each year. Title game is hosted at bowl site and it's also bid out.

For the regular season...Week Zero becomes the official Week 1. Everyone maintains a 12 game regular season and a CCG. The conference title games are played on Thanksgiving weekend.

One week break at this stage...Army/Navy game also played.

First round gets played on the 2nd weekend in December. Second round is 3rd weekend in December.

One more week break...this time for Christmas.

Semis are played as close to New Year's Day as possible. Championship game is approximately 1 week later.

The other bowl games can still be scattered from that first playoff weekend until the final game. Spreading them out a little more offers more promo opportunities.
06-08-2021 09:52 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 09:52 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Here's my proposal for a structure.

P5 champions get an auto-bid = 5
Highest ranked G5 champion gets an auto-bid = 1
At large teams from any background = 6

Top 4 teams get a first round bye.

Seeds 5-8 get to host a first round game on campus.

Top 4 seeds will host the second round on campus.

Semis are hosted at bowl sites. They're bid out each year. Title game is hosted at bowl site and it's also bid out.

For the regular season...Week Zero becomes the official Week 1. Everyone maintains a 12 game regular season and a CCG. The conference title games are played on Thanksgiving weekend.

One week break at this stage...Army/Navy game also played.

First round gets played on the 2nd weekend in December. Second round is 3rd weekend in December.

One more week break...this time for Christmas.

Semis are played as close to New Year's Day as possible. Championship game is approximately 1 week later.

The other bowl games can still be scattered from that first playoff weekend until the final game. Spreading them out a little more offers more promo opportunities.


Well done, ATU. I like it. This could work very well.
06-08-2021 10:03 PM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 09:08 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 07:12 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 06:58 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 05:55 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The best way to do 5-1-4 or 5-1-6 is to host the opening round the weekend after Army-Navy (3rd Saturday in December).

quarterfinals get played at bowl sites on/around New Years.

For the semis and finals, I advocate hosting them all in the same place to help alleviate travel. Semis get played the weekend of the Pro Bowl (Both on Saturday?) and the NCG gets played the night before the Super Bowl. What’s more American than one giant football championship weekend?

I think the CCG will go if it is 12 teams. Otherwise they will cut a week in the regular season and go to eleven games, either 9+2 OOC or 8+3. And every school will play on CCG depending on standings. It’s best to have that slate on Thanksgiving weekend with round 1 1st weekend of December.

Ya, but I’m not sure any P5 would replace their CCG with a first round that may or may not include their teams. They’ll definitely opt for money they control. Cutting back to 11? Hard to do with scheduling contracts and all, and a backward decision if you are also cutting the number of regular season weekends.

If you’re cutting CCGs, you better go full 16-team playoff and maximize that weekend. And if you are cutting to 11 games, maybe instead you roll the current bowl game allowance into the existing 12-game limit (ie. You only go bowling if you are a part of the neo-NY6/playoff OR if you intentionally schedule 11 regular season games); ADs will have their choice, a merciful way to sunset bowls.

Plus that would defeat one of the primary goals of expanding the playoffs. You want as many interesting/meaningful/valuable games as possible.

-You want as many conferences to feel like they have a shot to be represented for as long as possible through the season
-You want to regular season to be important to make the CCG
-You want the CCG to be important because a playoff spot is on the line
-You want MORE bowls to be important than they are now by making more of them have something on the line
-You want the most total games to matter so that the most people don't change the channel

That is why I don't think ditching conference championships would be on the table, and it's why conference auto-bids, at least to an extent, probably will be.

I've said this before. Look at the NFL model. Every division champ plus a few at-large wild cards to solve for bad divisions. It keeps the regular season interesting. It keeps people tuned when the 8-7 Cowboys and the 9-6 Giants play on week 17 for a division title. It keeps fans of a good 11-win team playing in a division with a 15-win team from tuning out over the last few weeks of the regular season. The system works to keep the most fans engaged as long as possible. We have the friggin template.

Correct.

Frankly, one of the biggest benefits of an expanded playoffs is that they make the P5 conference championship game last even more valuable.

There’s one thing that I’m certain of: whatever new playoff system will be completely additive to the current system. No one is giving up a single home game, conference championship game, or single penny. It’s all about putting an expanded playoff on top of what’s in place now.
06-08-2021 10:10 PM
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bullet Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 05:49 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  To paraphrase Yogi Berra, it ain’t over until it’s over… and it’s not over until we get university president approval.

That being said, Pete Thamel is NOT a s**t-stirring columnist. He is a top notch reporter that was on the forefront of many conference realignment and playoff expansion stories in the past. I’d put him in the top 5 college football reporters that I’d trust on these types of issues. He’s going to have as good of sources as anyone here.

If Thamel writes something about the Big 12, it is a s**t-stirring column. He is basically writing something some OU bigwig told him to write. On other stuff, he is reliable.
06-08-2021 10:51 PM
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bullet Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 10:10 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 09:08 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 07:12 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 06:58 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 05:55 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The best way to do 5-1-4 or 5-1-6 is to host the opening round the weekend after Army-Navy (3rd Saturday in December).

quarterfinals get played at bowl sites on/around New Years.

For the semis and finals, I advocate hosting them all in the same place to help alleviate travel. Semis get played the weekend of the Pro Bowl (Both on Saturday?) and the NCG gets played the night before the Super Bowl. What’s more American than one giant football championship weekend?

I think the CCG will go if it is 12 teams. Otherwise they will cut a week in the regular season and go to eleven games, either 9+2 OOC or 8+3. And every school will play on CCG depending on standings. It’s best to have that slate on Thanksgiving weekend with round 1 1st weekend of December.

Ya, but I’m not sure any P5 would replace their CCG with a first round that may or may not include their teams. They’ll definitely opt for money they control. Cutting back to 11? Hard to do with scheduling contracts and all, and a backward decision if you are also cutting the number of regular season weekends.

If you’re cutting CCGs, you better go full 16-team playoff and maximize that weekend. And if you are cutting to 11 games, maybe instead you roll the current bowl game allowance into the existing 12-game limit (ie. You only go bowling if you are a part of the neo-NY6/playoff OR if you intentionally schedule 11 regular season games); ADs will have their choice, a merciful way to sunset bowls.

Plus that would defeat one of the primary goals of expanding the playoffs. You want as many interesting/meaningful/valuable games as possible.

-You want as many conferences to feel like they have a shot to be represented for as long as possible through the season
-You want to regular season to be important to make the CCG
-You want the CCG to be important because a playoff spot is on the line
-You want MORE bowls to be important than they are now by making more of them have something on the line
-You want the most total games to matter so that the most people don't change the channel

That is why I don't think ditching conference championships would be on the table, and it's why conference auto-bids, at least to an extent, probably will be.

I've said this before. Look at the NFL model. Every division champ plus a few at-large wild cards to solve for bad divisions. It keeps the regular season interesting. It keeps people tuned when the 8-7 Cowboys and the 9-6 Giants play on week 17 for a division title. It keeps fans of a good 11-win team playing in a division with a 15-win team from tuning out over the last few weeks of the regular season. The system works to keep the most fans engaged as long as possible. We have the friggin template.

Correct.

Frankly, one of the biggest benefits of an expanded playoffs is that they make the P5 conference championship game last even more valuable.

There’s one thing that I’m certain of: whatever new playoff system will be completely additive to the current system. No one is giving up a single home game, conference championship game, or single penny. It’s all about putting an expanded playoff on top of what’s in place now.

P5 is NOT giving up a ccg. Now the Rose, Sugar and Orange Bowl deals will no longer be separate 2 out of 3 years like now That is one thing that will be given up in a playoff expansion.

I think they are going to prefer 10 over 12. That way, all the P5 get to the quarterfinals along with one wild card and the two play-in game winners.
06-08-2021 10:55 PM
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JamesTKirk Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 07:18 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 06:29 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 06:23 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  If you win your conference (P5 or G5) and finish in the top 25*, then you should be guaranteed an invite in to a 12 team playoff.

*ideally, top 25 in any of the three rankings: CFP, AP, Coaches.

Top 25 is too easy. We'd have 2-3 G5 champs ranked around #21 getting in over P5 teams ranked in the top 10.

Ok, you’re right.

True, but it is interesting to note that a few P5 champions were ranked #21st in the nation or lower, prior to NY bowl games, such as:

2020 #25 (AP/CFP) Oregon (4-2; 4-2)
2008 #21 (AP) Virginia Tech (9-4; 5-3)
2005 #22 (AP) Florida State (8-4; 5-3)

(06-08-2021 07:18 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  Top 20 is probably better.

In other words to quote you, "If you win your conference (P5 or G5) and finish in the top 20, then you should be guaranteed an invite in to a 12 team playoff."

That might seem like a radical idea to some people, but actually, it makes a lot of sense, and it could be done within a 12-team CFP format (see table below).

NOTE: In 2019, #19 (12-1) Boise St. and #20 (12-1) App. St. would have made their way into the CFP ahead of #11 (11-2) Utah and #12 (9-3) Auburn, by virtue of having won their conference championships.

The idea makes sense, logically, because a highly-ranked conference champion is a much more credible candidate for a national championship than is a team that has failed to meet that same basic threshold.

After all, how strong a claim can a team make on a national championship if it couldn't even manage to win its own conference championship?

If the rule you've suggested were to have been put into place:

(a) Three more G5 teams would have made it into the CFP over a 7-year period,

(b) The G5 would've been represented by more competitive teams in 2016 & '18, and the #12 team would have played in the CFP, rather than the #25 team in 2020.*

*#12 Coastal Carolina would've played in the 2020 CFP, rather than #25 Oregon.


G5 teams that would play in the CFP if they were required to be Top 20 (CFP) ranked G5 conference champions,
rather than simply being the champion of the top-ranked G5 conference:


Champion of the highest-........................Top 20 (CFP) ranked
ranked G5 conference:........................... conference champions:

2020....#8 Cincinnati.............................#8 Cincinnati; #12 Coastal Carolina (replaces #25 Oregon)
2019....#17 Memphis............................#17 Memphis; #19 Boise St.; #20 App St.
2018....#21 Fresno St............................#8 UCF (replaces #21)
2017....#12 UCF...................................#12 UCF
2016....#24 Temple..............................#15 Western Michigan (replaces #24)
2015....#18 Houston.............................#18 Houston
2014....#20 Boise St.............................#20 Boise St.

Most importantly, the column on the right might have been a more competitive slate of teams.

(06-08-2021 07:18 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  IMO a 5:1 ratio of P5:G5 is healthy mix. Really need two G5 in there *on average*, if twelve teams are involved.

If the CFP were to be designed to ensure a representative ("healthy") mix of teams, by emulating the selection criteria for NCAA tournament teams, the CFP format would need to be expanded to at least 16 teams.

If the 12-team CFP format with auto-bids had been adopted in 2014, there only would have been one G5 at-large team (#8 UCF, in 2018).

#12 Coastal Carolina would have been bumped from the 2020 field by #25 Oregon.

There would be slightly more G5 at-large teams with a 16-team CFP Playoff Format:

..........Top-Ranked G5 conference / Champion...............Highest-Ranked
............(Massey Composite Conference Rankings)..............."At-Large" G5 Team

2020............AAC / #8 Cincinnati (9-0)....................#12 Coastal Carolina (11-0)
2019............AAC / #17 Memphis (12-1)..................#19 Boise State (12-1)
2018............MWC / #21 Fresno St. (12-2)................#8 UCF (12-0)
2017............AAC / #12 UCF (12-0).........................#20 Memphis (10-2)
2016............AAC /#24 Temple (10-3).....................#15 Western Michigan (13-0)
2015............AAC / #18 Houston (12-1)...................#21 Navy (9-2)
2014............MWC / #20 Boise St. (11-2).................#21 Louisville (9-3)

If a 16-team CFP with the basic 12-team criteria had been adopted in 2014, there would have been G5 at-large teams in 2016, 2018, and 2020.

The G5 would have had an average of 1.43 teams per year in the playoffs since 2014.

A 16-team CFP would also be a better test of which team is the true national champion, because the top-seeded teams wouldn't get a bye week.

In both respects, a 16-team CFP would be better than a 12-team CFP, from the standpoint of the G5 conferences. It would also be more consistent with the principles of sportsmanship that the NCAA tournament is based on.

.

The information in these tables indicate, or suggest that:

1) The proposed 12-team CFP expansion format would be unlikely to have more than one G5 team, unless or until more G5 teams are able to end the regular seasons in the nation's top 12.

2) It may be advisable to grant CFP access to G5 teams that and win their conference championships and finish in the CFP Top 20. This would result in a very modest, intermittent uptick in the number of G5 teams in the CFP, but would be consistent with the NCAA principles of sportsmanship evidenced in the selection of teams for the NCAA basketball tournament.

3) While a 12-team CFP with an automatic bid for one G5 team would be considered a step in the right direction from the standpoint of the G5 conferences, a 16-team CFP would have two major advantages: (A) By eliminating "bye" games for the top-seeded teams, it would permit all teams "to compete on a more even playing field," and (B) It would enable a slightly larger number of G5 teams to compete for a national championship (estimated 1.5 G5 teams per year, on average).
(This post was last modified: 06-09-2021 03:48 AM by JamesTKirk.)
06-09-2021 12:06 AM
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JamesTKirk Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 09:52 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Here's my proposal for a structure.

P5 champions get an auto-bid = 5
Highest ranked G5 champion gets an auto-bid = 1
At large teams from any background = 6

Top 4 teams get a first round bye.

Seeds 5-8 get to host a first round game on campus.

Top 4 seeds will host the second round on campus.

Semis are hosted at bowl sites. They're bid out each year. Title game is hosted at bowl site and it's also bid out.

For the regular season...Week Zero becomes the official Week 1. Everyone maintains a 12 game regular season and a CCG. The conference title games are played on Thanksgiving weekend.

One week break at this stage...Army/Navy game also played.

First round gets played on the 2nd weekend in December. Second round is 3rd weekend in December.

One more week break...this time for Christmas.

Semis are played as close to New Year's Day as possible. Championship game is approximately 1 week later.

The other bowl games can still be scattered from that first playoff weekend until the final game. Spreading them out a little more offers more promo opportunities.


That would be a great deal for Alabama, Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Clemson! !04-high5

Unfortunately, It would suck for everybody else. Here's why:

1) The top 4-ranked teams already have one major advantage:

By virtue of their seedings, they would get to play lower-ranked teams in the first round.

2) Getting a first-round bye would give them a second major advantage:

Not playing the addition game means their players are much less liable to be injured, and they will be playing a team with some number of players who have had minor injuries or have been put out of action in their first round games.

3) Playing those lower-ranked teams on their own home fields, after a bye week, would give them a third major advantage.


Q: Why should the top 4 teams in the nation get all those extra advantages?
03-idea

.

I would propose an opposite approach, because the purpose of a national championship series is to determine which team is the best in the nation.

Rather than making it much, much easier for teams like Alabama and Ohio State to win the national championship, the games would be more more successfully if they were designed to be more, rather than less competitive.

Therefore, a major effort would be made to even the playing field in every possible, so that the more powerful and successful programs are not given any additional advantages.

1) ALL GAMES WOULD BE PLAYED ON NEUTRAL FIELDS, because granting a team home field advantage interferes with the purpose of the championship series - - to identify the best team in the nation - - NOT THE TEAM WITH THE MOST PERKS & ADVANTAGES.

2) PREFERABLY, THERE WOULD BE NO FIRST ROUND BYES. This would be possible with a 16-team playoff format. A 16-team playoff would also permit slightly more G5 teams to compete for a national championship (about 1.5 G5 teams per year, on average).

3) IF THERE ARE FIRST ROUND BYES, THE BYES SHOULD GO TO TO THE LOWEST RANKED TEAMS - - TO HELP EVEN THE PLAYING FIELD AND MAKE FOR A MORE COMPETITIVE SERIES.

--The winners of the first round games would play the four lowest-ranked teams in round 2.

.

Prego!

.
(This post was last modified: 06-09-2021 04:46 AM by JamesTKirk.)
06-09-2021 04:39 AM
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CardinalJim Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
The Big Ten has actually placed fewer teams in the CFP than The ACC.

SEC - 8
ACC - 7 ( 8 if you count Notre Dame that were ACC football last season)
Big Ten - 5
Big 12 - 4
PAC - 1

I wouldn’t be so quick to count multiple births in the CFP as some advantage for The Big Ten. Looking at the results the first 7 years, automatic bids would help The Big Ten, Big 12 and PAC more than The ACC.

I’m more excited to see The AAC get an opportunity over making sure The Big Ten doesn’t get left at home once every 3 years.

Continue on with the inflated narrative that The Big Ten plays championship football every season…. CFP history doesn’t agree
(This post was last modified: 06-09-2021 04:43 AM by CardinalJim.)
06-09-2021 04:40 AM
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Post: #69
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
If Conf Champ games are retained then 9-12 would have to be reserved for play in games on CCG weekend. At large runner ups or bubble ND or a 2nd G5 that forgoes its own CCG (or gets and exemption). Otherwise you run out of weekends on the calendar. The first round must be played before NYD and I don’t think kicking out Army Navy out of that weekend will fly (along with Exam preps).
(This post was last modified: 06-09-2021 07:15 AM by RUScarlets.)
06-09-2021 06:39 AM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 10:55 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 10:10 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 09:08 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 07:12 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 06:58 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I think the CCG will go if it is 12 teams. Otherwise they will cut a week in the regular season and go to eleven games, either 9+2 OOC or 8+3. And every school will play on CCG depending on standings. It’s best to have that slate on Thanksgiving weekend with round 1 1st weekend of December.

Ya, but I’m not sure any P5 would replace their CCG with a first round that may or may not include their teams. They’ll definitely opt for money they control. Cutting back to 11? Hard to do with scheduling contracts and all, and a backward decision if you are also cutting the number of regular season weekends.

If you’re cutting CCGs, you better go full 16-team playoff and maximize that weekend. And if you are cutting to 11 games, maybe instead you roll the current bowl game allowance into the existing 12-game limit (ie. You only go bowling if you are a part of the neo-NY6/playoff OR if you intentionally schedule 11 regular season games); ADs will have their choice, a merciful way to sunset bowls.

Plus that would defeat one of the primary goals of expanding the playoffs. You want as many interesting/meaningful/valuable games as possible.

-You want as many conferences to feel like they have a shot to be represented for as long as possible through the season
-You want to regular season to be important to make the CCG
-You want the CCG to be important because a playoff spot is on the line
-You want MORE bowls to be important than they are now by making more of them have something on the line
-You want the most total games to matter so that the most people don't change the channel

That is why I don't think ditching conference championships would be on the table, and it's why conference auto-bids, at least to an extent, probably will be.

I've said this before. Look at the NFL model. Every division champ plus a few at-large wild cards to solve for bad divisions. It keeps the regular season interesting. It keeps people tuned when the 8-7 Cowboys and the 9-6 Giants play on week 17 for a division title. It keeps fans of a good 11-win team playing in a division with a 15-win team from tuning out over the last few weeks of the regular season. The system works to keep the most fans engaged as long as possible. We have the friggin template.

Correct.

Frankly, one of the biggest benefits of an expanded playoffs is that they make the P5 conference championship game last even more valuable.

There’s one thing that I’m certain of: whatever new playoff system will be completely additive to the current system. No one is giving up a single home game, conference championship game, or single penny. It’s all about putting an expanded playoff on top of what’s in place now.

P5 is NOT giving up a ccg. Now the Rose, Sugar and Orange Bowl deals will no longer be separate 2 out of 3 years like now That is one thing that will be given up in a playoff expansion.

I think they are going to prefer 10 over 12. That way, all the P5 get to the quarterfinals along with one wild card and the two play-in game winners.

I still don't understand what they are giving up. Won't all the NY6 bowls be quarter or semi finals every year in an expanded structure(vs. only once every 3 years now)? Why wouldn't they go for that? Has there been a year where a garbage Rose/Sugar bowl has drawn more eyeballs than a semi?
06-09-2021 07:14 AM
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RUScarlets Offline
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Post: #71
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-09-2021 07:14 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 10:55 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 10:10 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 09:08 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 07:12 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Ya, but I’m not sure any P5 would replace their CCG with a first round that may or may not include their teams. They’ll definitely opt for money they control. Cutting back to 11? Hard to do with scheduling contracts and all, and a backward decision if you are also cutting the number of regular season weekends.

If you’re cutting CCGs, you better go full 16-team playoff and maximize that weekend. And if you are cutting to 11 games, maybe instead you roll the current bowl game allowance into the existing 12-game limit (ie. You only go bowling if you are a part of the neo-NY6/playoff OR if you intentionally schedule 11 regular season games); ADs will have their choice, a merciful way to sunset bowls.

Plus that would defeat one of the primary goals of expanding the playoffs. You want as many interesting/meaningful/valuable games as possible.

-You want as many conferences to feel like they have a shot to be represented for as long as possible through the season
-You want to regular season to be important to make the CCG
-You want the CCG to be important because a playoff spot is on the line
-You want MORE bowls to be important than they are now by making more of them have something on the line
-You want the most total games to matter so that the most people don't change the channel

That is why I don't think ditching conference championships would be on the table, and it's why conference auto-bids, at least to an extent, probably will be.

I've said this before. Look at the NFL model. Every division champ plus a few at-large wild cards to solve for bad divisions. It keeps the regular season interesting. It keeps people tuned when the 8-7 Cowboys and the 9-6 Giants play on week 17 for a division title. It keeps fans of a good 11-win team playing in a division with a 15-win team from tuning out over the last few weeks of the regular season. The system works to keep the most fans engaged as long as possible. We have the friggin template.

Correct.

Frankly, one of the biggest benefits of an expanded playoffs is that they make the P5 conference championship game last even more valuable.

There’s one thing that I’m certain of: whatever new playoff system will be completely additive to the current system. No one is giving up a single home game, conference championship game, or single penny. It’s all about putting an expanded playoff on top of what’s in place now.

P5 is NOT giving up a ccg. Now the Rose, Sugar and Orange Bowl deals will no longer be separate 2 out of 3 years like now That is one thing that will be given up in a playoff expansion.

I think they are going to prefer 10 over 12. That way, all the P5 get to the quarterfinals along with one wild card and the two play-in game winners.

I still don't understand what they are giving up. Won't all the NY6 bowls be quarter or semi finals every year in an expanded structure(vs. only once every 3 years now)? Why wouldn't they go for that? Has there been a year where a garbage Rose/Sugar bowl has drawn more eyeballs than a semi?

Playing QFs New Years week not only extends the season but adds an extra travel week. Unless one of those rounds is a neutral site, rotating QF among the existing bowls is a non starter. No way I can see that passing.
(This post was last modified: 06-09-2021 08:28 AM by RUScarlets.)
06-09-2021 08:28 AM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #72
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-09-2021 04:40 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  The Big Ten has actually placed fewer teams in the CFP than The ACC.

SEC - 8
ACC - 7 ( 8 if you count Notre Dame that were ACC football last season)
Big Ten - 5
Big 12 - 4
PAC - 1

I wouldn’t be so quick to count multiple births in the CFP as some advantage for The Big Ten. Looking at the results the first 7 years, automatic bids would help The Big Ten, Big 12 and PAC more than The ACC.

I’m more excited to see The AAC get an opportunity over making sure The Big Ten doesn’t get left at home once every 3 years.

Continue on with the inflated narrative that The Big Ten plays championship football every season…. CFP history doesn’t agree

Yes, but had the CFP been an 8-team playoff with no autobids, the B1G would have placed more teams in.

That's because the ACC has had the good fortune of having one super-team, Clemson, that is always in the top 4, but after that there has typically been a big dropoff to the next ACC team (I discount 2020 because Notre Dame was an ACC one-shot). Whereas the B1G has often had more teams in the top 10.

For example, in 2017, the ACC had a team in the CFP whereas the B1G did not. But had the playoffs been 8 teams, the ACC would still have had only one team in, whereas the B1G would have had 2 teams in, as Ohio State and Wisconsin were ranked 5 and 6 whereas no other ACC team was in the top 10.

That has occurred in several years. Now of course there's no guarantee that the future will be like the past, but if I am a B1G commissioner, I want expansion with a lot of at-large slots to get more teams in.
(This post was last modified: 06-09-2021 08:40 AM by quo vadis.)
06-09-2021 08:39 AM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #73
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-09-2021 08:28 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(06-09-2021 07:14 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 10:55 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 10:10 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 09:08 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  Plus that would defeat one of the primary goals of expanding the playoffs. You want as many interesting/meaningful/valuable games as possible.

-You want as many conferences to feel like they have a shot to be represented for as long as possible through the season
-You want to regular season to be important to make the CCG
-You want the CCG to be important because a playoff spot is on the line
-You want MORE bowls to be important than they are now by making more of them have something on the line
-You want the most total games to matter so that the most people don't change the channel

That is why I don't think ditching conference championships would be on the table, and it's why conference auto-bids, at least to an extent, probably will be.

I've said this before. Look at the NFL model. Every division champ plus a few at-large wild cards to solve for bad divisions. It keeps the regular season interesting. It keeps people tuned when the 8-7 Cowboys and the 9-6 Giants play on week 17 for a division title. It keeps fans of a good 11-win team playing in a division with a 15-win team from tuning out over the last few weeks of the regular season. The system works to keep the most fans engaged as long as possible. We have the friggin template.

Correct.

Frankly, one of the biggest benefits of an expanded playoffs is that they make the P5 conference championship game last even more valuable.

There’s one thing that I’m certain of: whatever new playoff system will be completely additive to the current system. No one is giving up a single home game, conference championship game, or single penny. It’s all about putting an expanded playoff on top of what’s in place now.

P5 is NOT giving up a ccg. Now the Rose, Sugar and Orange Bowl deals will no longer be separate 2 out of 3 years like now That is one thing that will be given up in a playoff expansion.

I think they are going to prefer 10 over 12. That way, all the P5 get to the quarterfinals along with one wild card and the two play-in game winners.

I still don't understand what they are giving up. Won't all the NY6 bowls be quarter or semi finals every year in an expanded structure(vs. only once every 3 years now)? Why wouldn't they go for that? Has there been a year where a garbage Rose/Sugar bowl has drawn more eyeballs than a semi?

Playing QFs New Years week not only extends the season but adds an extra travel week. Unless one of those rounds is a neutral site, rotating QF among the existing bowls is a non starter. No way I can see that passing.

I’m not understanding why any of that is a non-starter based on the reasons given. Extending the season and adding a week of travel might not be preferable in a vacuum, but I wouldn’t call those non-starters at all if that means maximizing the revenue from playoff expansion. Playoff expansion itself inherently means something in the current schedule and system will need to give… and in that scenario, I’d always bet on what makes the most money because *something* foreign to the current system will need to be introduced no matter what. If that means using the bowls, then they’ll use the bowls. If that means that they’ll exclude the bowls, then they’ll exclude the bowls. In either event, I don’t think any self-imposed concern about adding a week to the length of the season is going to get in the way if it means maximizing revenue.
06-09-2021 08:55 AM
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Gamecock Offline
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Post: #74
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 02:51 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 01:51 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Worried about a CCG upset letting a bad team into the playoffs? First of all, that's not likely to happen ...

It's not likely to happen at all. There's never even been a team with 3 or more losses in a P5 CCG except for twice when the actual winner of a division was on NCAA probation and didn't play in the CCG.

There's no reason for anyone to freak out about "what if" scenarios that have about a 1% chance of ever happening, and there's no reason to build an entire playoff format around trying to prevent 1% possibilities from happening.

Exactly. If our "worst case scenario" is 9-3 Wisconsin upsetting 11-1 Ohio State and then winning 4 straight games against top 12 teams on top of that to win a national title then I think at that point they deserve it. This hypothetical shouldn't really factor into our decision making.
06-09-2021 10:09 AM
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RUScarlets Offline
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Post: #75
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-09-2021 08:55 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I’m not understanding why any of that is a non-starter based on the reasons given. Extending the season and adding a week of travel might not be preferable in a vacuum, but I wouldn’t call those non-starters at all if that means maximizing the revenue from playoff expansion. Playoff expansion itself inherently means something in the current schedule and system will need to give… and in that scenario, I’d always bet on what makes the most money because *something* foreign to the current system will need to be introduced no matter what. If that means using the bowls, then they’ll use the bowls. If that means that they’ll exclude the bowls, then they’ll exclude the bowls. In either event, I don’t think any self-imposed concern about adding a week to the length of the season is going to get in the way if it means maximizing revenue.

They won't be able to sell tickets to those games three travel weekends. You of all people should know this. Are they going to have 4 QF on Saturday before NYD or on NYD itself, and then go back to campus venues for SF's? I would put big money that they won't. Hell, CSNbbs can ban me if I am wrong about this and they play the 1st round on neutral venues post Xmas. Not to mention the traditional bowls becoming QFs. This is the reason the CFP was never seriously considered for almost 100 years.
(This post was last modified: 06-09-2021 10:33 AM by RUScarlets.)
06-09-2021 10:30 AM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #76
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
Let’s talk about travel:

In a 5-1-6

In the opening round, only 4 teams have to travel (seeds 5-8 are playing at home, seeds 1-4 have a bye)

In the quarter finals, 8 teams travel—but they would have traveled to a bowl game anyway—these bowl games are just part of the playoff.

If you host the semis and the finals all on one site, there’s another trip for 4 teams.

Unless a 9-12 seed scores an upset, no one has to travel more than twice.
06-09-2021 10:42 AM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #77
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-09-2021 10:30 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(06-09-2021 08:55 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I’m not understanding why any of that is a non-starter based on the reasons given. Extending the season and adding a week of travel might not be preferable in a vacuum, but I wouldn’t call those non-starters at all if that means maximizing the revenue from playoff expansion. Playoff expansion itself inherently means something in the current schedule and system will need to give… and in that scenario, I’d always bet on what makes the most money because *something* foreign to the current system will need to be introduced no matter what. If that means using the bowls, then they’ll use the bowls. If that means that they’ll exclude the bowls, then they’ll exclude the bowls. In either event, I don’t think any self-imposed concern about adding a week to the length of the season is going to get in the way if it means maximizing revenue.

They won't be able to sell tickets to those games three travel weekends. You of all people should know this. Are they going to have 4 QF on Saturday before NYD or on NYD itself, and then go back to campus venues for SF's? I would put big money that they won't. Hell, CSNbbs can ban me if I am wrong about this and they play the 1st round on neutral venues post Xmas. Not to mention the traditional bowls becoming QFs. This is the reason the CFP was never seriously considered for almost 100 years.

I still don't follow. We currently have teams going to bowl games that don't matter. Some of those same teams will now go to a bowl game that matters, and even less of them (the very best in the country) will play an extra week. Are they having trouble selling tickets to the semi's at neutral sites because the fans are worried that a team might advance and play the next week? That's ridiculous. The semi's sell loads of tickets, to travelling fans and casual fans alike.

I'm definitely down for home-site first rounds/play-ins whatever you call them if we go to 12, but there is zero reason that all the NY6 bowls shouldn't be the quarters/semis for the top 8 teams.
(This post was last modified: 06-09-2021 10:48 AM by CoastalJuan.)
06-09-2021 10:47 AM
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RUScarlets Offline
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Post: #78
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-09-2021 10:47 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(06-09-2021 10:30 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(06-09-2021 08:55 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I’m not understanding why any of that is a non-starter based on the reasons given. Extending the season and adding a week of travel might not be preferable in a vacuum, but I wouldn’t call those non-starters at all if that means maximizing the revenue from playoff expansion. Playoff expansion itself inherently means something in the current schedule and system will need to give… and in that scenario, I’d always bet on what makes the most money because *something* foreign to the current system will need to be introduced no matter what. If that means using the bowls, then they’ll use the bowls. If that means that they’ll exclude the bowls, then they’ll exclude the bowls. In either event, I don’t think any self-imposed concern about adding a week to the length of the season is going to get in the way if it means maximizing revenue.

They won't be able to sell tickets to those games three travel weekends. You of all people should know this. Are they going to have 4 QF on Saturday before NYD or on NYD itself, and then go back to campus venues for SF's? I would put big money that they won't. Hell, CSNbbs can ban me if I am wrong about this and they play the 1st round on neutral venues post Xmas. Not to mention the traditional bowls becoming QFs. This is the reason the CFP was never seriously considered for almost 100 years.

I still don't follow. We currently have teams going to bowl games that don't matter. Some of those same teams will now go to a bowl game that matters, and even less of them (the very best in the country) will play an extra week. Are they having trouble selling tickets to the semi's at neutral sites because the fans are worried that a team might advance and play the next week? That's ridiculous. The semi's sell loads of tickets, to travelling fans and casual fans alike.

I'm definitely down for home-site first rounds/play-ins whatever you call them if we go to 12, but there is zero reason that all the NY6 bowls shouldn't be the quarters/semis for the top 8 teams.

The games will not sell unless they are deeply discounted and devoid of traveling fans. Has CFB not considered this ever? They have... it's the reason why they stopped at 4 teams and will likely remain that way until travel is alleviated. There is no way fanbases are going to do three travel weekends back to back to back. Imagine families having the shell out that money and their kid has an injury before the draft, let alone the kids that have no shot of making the NFL. Those families will watch at home until the SF or F. Sugar Bowls will be loaded with local fans that paid pennies on the dollar, being mostly casual CF or sports fans.

1st round has to be campus venues and held on the current Army.vs.Navy/Heisman weekend on the week after if they want to get the last 4 on NYD as it is currently every three years.

(06-09-2021 10:42 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Let’s talk about travel:

In a 5-1-6

In the opening round, only 4 teams have to travel (seeds 5-8 are playing at home, seeds 1-4 have a bye)

In the quarter finals, 8 teams travel—but they would have traveled to a bowl game anyway—these bowl games are just part of the playoff.

If you host the semis and the finals all on one site, there’s another trip for 4 teams.

Unless a 9-12 seed scores an upset, no one has to travel more than twice.

Except that means a week of hotel reservations SF to F. Are you going to play a Saturday Monday with no rest or prep?

Here is how it probably goes, if it's 12 teams, you have 4 play-in games. These games are played Army/Navy Weekend, which gets pushed back or is just relegated. Or... the season moves one week back (or one week/bye is cut).

QFs, campus sites the Saturday before NYD and after Xmas. SFs following Saturday week 18 of the NFL season at a neutral site. Final on MLK Holiday. There is no way in hell the season will be extended past this.
(This post was last modified: 06-09-2021 12:09 PM by RUScarlets.)
06-09-2021 11:35 AM
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Post: #79
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 12:33 PM)Georgia_Power_Company Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 11:51 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 10:33 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Here's the CFP rankings after the CCGs.

RED=autobid

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Notre Dame
5. Texas A&M
6. Oklahoma
7. Florida
8. Cincinnati
9. Georgia
10. Iowa State
11. Indiana
12. Coastal Carolina (left out)
.
.
25. Oregon

So the 12-team would somewhat resemble this:

Play-in Games:
Georgia (9 seed) versus Oregon (12 seed)
Iowa State (10 seed) versus Indiana (11 seed)

Round of 8:
9 vs. 12 winner versus Alabama (1 seed)
10 vs 11 winner versus Clemson (2 seed)
Ohio State (3 seed) versus Cincinnati (8 seed)
Notre Dame (4 seed) versus Florida (7 seed)
Texas A&M (5 seed) versus Oklahoma (6 seed)

I know this is a hypothetical, but it is pointless to use this year's data. The Pac-12 barely had a season. Oregon only made the CCG because Washington had Covid-19 issues. Washington, Washington State, Arizona State, and Cal only played four games this season. Oregon had five players drafted, four of whom opted out of the 2020 season. Almost every team in the nation was affected by the pandemic and I just think the data has been corrupted and is useless from the 2020 season.

So if you look at a normal year like 2019 you get:
1. LSU SEC
2. Ohio St BIG 10
3. Clemson ACC
4. Oklahoma BIG 12
5. Georgia SEC
6. Oregon PAC 12
7. Baylor BIG 12
8. Wisconsin BIG 10
9. Florida SEC
10. Penn St BIG 10
11. Utah PAC 12
12. Auburn (left out)
*
*
17. Memphis AAC

3 SEC, 3 BIG 10, 2 BIG 12, 2 PAC 12, 1 ACC, 1 AAC

Play In Games
12. Memphis vs 9. Florida
11. Utah vs 10. Penn St

Round of 8

12/9 Winner vs 1. LSU
10/11 Winner vs 2. Ohio St
8. Wisconsin vs 3. Clemson
7. Baylor vs 4. Oklahoma
6. Oregon vs 5. Georgia

This doesn't work, as you have 5 games.

There are 4 bye teams, the other 8 play an extra game.
06-09-2021 11:59 AM
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Post: #80
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-09-2021 06:39 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  If Conf Champ games are retained then 9-12 would have to be reserved for play in games on CCG weekend. At large runner ups or bubble ND or a 2nd G5 that forgoes its own CCG (or gets and exemption). Otherwise you run out of weekends on the calendar. The first round must be played before NYD and I don’t think kicking out Army Navy out of that weekend will fly (along with Exam preps).

It'd be nice to have a 12-team bracket that looked like that each year:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e...8w/pubhtml

2nd and 3rd Saturday of December are both okay for playoffs (Army/Navy & Heisman notwithstanding)... but not sure if playing both weekends would work. Still, may be better than going to the third or fourth Monday of January.
06-09-2021 12:35 PM
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