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Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
If there are indeed advancements toward an expanded playoffs that would lead me to believe that there will not be realignment in 2024. Why guarantee the Big 12 an autobid if you’re about to gut it?
06-08-2021 04:40 PM
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domer1978 Online
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Post: #42
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 04:40 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If there are indeed advancements toward an expanded playoffs that would lead me to believe that there will not be realignment in 2024. Why guarantee the Big 12 an autobid if you’re about to gut it?

Exactly . This board will just become a college sports board.
06-08-2021 04:47 PM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 04:10 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 02:51 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 01:51 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Worried about a CCG upset letting a bad team into the playoffs? First of all, that's not likely to happen ...

It's not likely to happen at all. There's never even been a team with 3 or more losses in a P5 CCG except for twice when the actual winner of a division was on NCAA probation and didn't play in the CCG.

There's no reason for anyone to freak out about "what if" scenarios that have about a 1% chance of ever happening, and there's no reason to build an entire playoff format around trying to prevent 1% possibilities from happening.

I would be much more concerned about a team with 3 losses gets an at large bid. It will happen routinely under the 12 team playoff model.

I don't really get the whole "oh no 3 losses!" thing. The NFL has the model that is as close to perfect as you can get. They let in 1/3 of the teams, some of which aren't much over .500. How bad is a 10-3 conference champ? At worst, you get to see who is better between them and another potentially over-ranked 1-loss team, instead of randomly picking a favorite who gets embarrassed by Alabama like we do now.

I think the article hit the nail on the head with one thought. Everyone keeps talking about how adding teams makes the regular season less important. The article argues the opposite. Maybe people are actually watching a 2-loss USC team in the second half of the season rather than writing them off in October if they are still playing for the playoff. "Who's In?" - Hardly anyone in week 10, so what's the point of watching?

One thing I don't really agree with is that the NY6 bowls would put up a huge fight. They all rotate for the privilege of hosting a playoff game. The NY6 bowls that HAVE been playoffs have had 2-3x the ratings. I don't think they'd argue against being a playoff game every year instead of getting two teams, with a ton of players sitting out, that aren't playing for anything.
06-08-2021 04:49 PM
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RUScarlets Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
Round 1 will replace CCG. QF The week after with Army Navy moving out of that middle Saturday. Forget about students trying to pass Final Exams. This is the only scheduling solution to avoid NFL playoffs. There might be a Saturday open on NFL Week 18 (with all pro teams playing Sunday). Not sure if they will utilize that Saturday for semis with the Final on MLK Holiday. In that case they can cram the QFs between Xmas and New Years but they would not be able to utilize NYD for QFs because that would be less than one week’s rest for the newly freed Saturday Week 18.
06-08-2021 05:37 PM
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RUScarlets Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 04:49 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 04:10 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 02:51 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 01:51 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Worried about a CCG upset letting a bad team into the playoffs? First of all, that's not likely to happen ...

It's not likely to happen at all. There's never even been a team with 3 or more losses in a P5 CCG except for twice when the actual winner of a division was on NCAA probation and didn't play in the CCG.

There's no reason for anyone to freak out about "what if" scenarios that have about a 1% chance of ever happening, and there's no reason to build an entire playoff format around trying to prevent 1% possibilities from happening.

I would be much more concerned about a team with 3 losses gets an at large bid. It will happen routinely under the 12 team playoff model.

I don't really get the whole "oh no 3 losses!" thing. The NFL has the model that is as close to perfect as you can get. They let in 1/3 of the teams, some of which aren't much over .500. How bad is a 10-3 conference champ? At worst, you get to see who is better between them and another potentially over-ranked 1-loss team, instead of randomly picking a favorite who gets embarrassed by Alabama like we do now.

I think the article hit the nail on the head with one thought. Everyone keeps talking about how adding teams makes the regular season less important. The article argues the opposite. Maybe people are actually watching a 2-loss USC team in the second half of the season rather than writing them off in October if they are still playing for the playoff. "Who's In?" - Hardly anyone in week 10, so what's the point of watching?

One thing I don't really agree with is that the NY6 bowls would put up a huge fight. They all rotate for the privilege of hosting a playoff game. The NY6 bowls that HAVE been playoffs have had 2-3x the ratings. I don't think they'd argue against being a playoff game every year instead of getting two teams, with a ton of players sitting out, that aren't playing for anything.

Yes on your last point, this won’t fly with the Rose and Sugar Bowls at all.
06-08-2021 05:40 PM
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ThunderDent Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 01:51 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 08:40 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 08:36 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  This is good news in my opinion. I expected 8, so 12 would be a tremendous boon. Yes, there will be some early round blowouts but the massive increase in varieties of teams and not de facto eliminating most schools by October will make this a great move for the sport.

Sure, we need more teams with 3-4 losses in the playoffs. That sounds just great.

Worried about a CCG upset letting a bad team into the playoffs? First of all, that's not likely to happen if you make one small tweak to the rules - don't require divisions. In fact, why not go one step further and require conferences to send their two "best" (i.e. highest-ranked) teams every year? History says if you do that you're virtually guaranteed two top 25 teams in the CCG.

https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2020/...right.html

This is exactly why I think having a three “division” AAC (East, central, West) and taking all the best name teams out there under one conference umbrella, will not only help
Legitimize the AAC, but will weaken the other leagues to the point the AAC will always get the auto bid.

Plus the inventory for TV. And with the playoff at 10, 12 or 16, if the AAC can get P6 status, they can actually have an autobid to themselves.
06-08-2021 05:45 PM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
To paraphrase Yogi Berra, it ain’t over until it’s over… and it’s not over until we get university president approval.

That being said, Pete Thamel is NOT a s**t-stirring columnist. He is a top notch reporter that was on the forefront of many conference realignment and playoff expansion stories in the past. I’d put him in the top 5 college football reporters that I’d trust on these types of issues. He’s going to have as good of sources as anyone here.
06-08-2021 05:49 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 03:25 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 03:15 PM)usffan Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 01:19 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  So there is no reason and no possibility that G5 conferences will get an autobid. Instead they will probably have a minimum of one at-large reserved for the highest ranked non-autonomous school (BYU, Liberty, Army, UConn, UMass and NMSU get thrown in that pile).

Each of the G5 conferences still gets a vote. There are few certainties in this world, but I am certain that none of them would agree to let their champions be lumped in with the independents.

USFFan

They won't turn down a guaranteed playoff spot. It's better than what they currently have.

9 times out of 10, the American champion will get that slot.

... which is why if I were a commissioner of a G5 other than the AAC, I would recommend voting against this kind of setup. Does no good for the other G5, and actually harms them, to allow the AAC to separate itself by getting this auto-bid almost every year.
(This post was last modified: 06-08-2021 05:54 PM by quo vadis.)
06-08-2021 05:53 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
The best way to do 5-1-4 or 5-1-6 is to host the opening round the weekend after Army-Navy (3rd Saturday in December).

quarterfinals get played at bowl sites on/around New Years.

For the semis and finals, I advocate hosting them all in the same place to help alleviate travel. Semis get played the weekend of the Pro Bowl (Both on Saturday?) and the NCG gets played the night before the Super Bowl. What’s more American than one giant football championship weekend?
(This post was last modified: 06-08-2021 05:57 PM by Fighting Muskie.)
06-08-2021 05:55 PM
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Post: #50
Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
If you win your conference (P5 or G5) and finish in the top 25*, then you should be guaranteed an invite in to a 12 team playoff.

*ideally, top 25 in any of the three rankings: CFP, AP, Coaches.
06-08-2021 06:23 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 06:23 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  If you win your conference (P5 or G5) and finish in the top 25*, then you should be guaranteed an invite in to a 12 team playoff.

*ideally, top 25 in any of the three rankings: CFP, AP, Coaches.

Top 25 is too easy. We'd have 2-3 G5 champs ranked around #21 getting in over P5 teams ranked in the top 10.
06-08-2021 06:29 PM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 05:53 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 03:25 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 03:15 PM)usffan Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 01:19 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  So there is no reason and no possibility that G5 conferences will get an autobid. Instead they will probably have a minimum of one at-large reserved for the highest ranked non-autonomous school (BYU, Liberty, Army, UConn, UMass and NMSU get thrown in that pile).

Each of the G5 conferences still gets a vote. There are few certainties in this world, but I am certain that none of them would agree to let their champions be lumped in with the independents.

USFFan

They won't turn down a guaranteed playoff spot. It's better than what they currently have.

9 times out of 10, the American champion will get that slot.

... which is why if I were a commissioner of a G5 other than the AAC, I would recommend voting against this kind of setup. Does no good for the other G5, and actually harms them, to allow the AAC to separate itself by getting this auto-bid almost every year.

IDK if I agree with this. If the AAC Champ and MWC Champ both finish 12-1 or better there is a good chance both get invited (as the G5 rep and an at large).
06-08-2021 06:32 PM
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RUScarlets Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 05:55 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The best way to do 5-1-4 or 5-1-6 is to host the opening round the weekend after Army-Navy (3rd Saturday in December).

quarterfinals get played at bowl sites on/around New Years.

For the semis and finals, I advocate hosting them all in the same place to help alleviate travel. Semis get played the weekend of the Pro Bowl (Both on Saturday?) and the NCG gets played the night before the Super Bowl. What’s more American than one giant football championship weekend?

I think the CCG will go if it is 12 teams. Otherwise they will cut a week in the regular season and go to eleven games, either 9+2 OOC or 8+3. And every school will play on CCG depending on standings. It’s best to have that slate on Thanksgiving weekend with round 1 1st weekend of December.
(This post was last modified: 06-08-2021 07:00 PM by RUScarlets.)
06-08-2021 06:58 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 06:58 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 05:55 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The best way to do 5-1-4 or 5-1-6 is to host the opening round the weekend after Army-Navy (3rd Saturday in December).

quarterfinals get played at bowl sites on/around New Years.

For the semis and finals, I advocate hosting them all in the same place to help alleviate travel. Semis get played the weekend of the Pro Bowl (Both on Saturday?) and the NCG gets played the night before the Super Bowl. What’s more American than one giant football championship weekend?

I think the CCG will go if it is 12 teams. Otherwise they will cut a week in the regular season and go to eleven games, either 9+2 OOC or 8+3. And every school will play on CCG depending on standings. It’s best to have that slate on Thanksgiving weekend with round 1 1st weekend of December.

Ya, but I’m not sure any P5 would replace their CCG with a first round that may or may not include their teams. They’ll definitely opt for money they control. Cutting back to 11? Hard to do with scheduling contracts and all, and a backward decision if you are also cutting the number of regular season weekends.

If you’re cutting CCGs, you better go full 16-team playoff and maximize that weekend. And if you are cutting to 11 games, maybe instead you roll the current bowl game allowance into the existing 12-game limit (ie. You only go bowling if you are a part of the neo-NY6/playoff OR if you intentionally schedule 11 regular season games); ADs will have their choice, a merciful way to sunset bowls.
06-08-2021 07:12 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #55
Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 06:29 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 06:23 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  If you win your conference (P5 or G5) and finish in the top 25*, then you should be guaranteed an invite in to a 12 team playoff.

*ideally, top 25 in any of the three rankings: CFP, AP, Coaches.

Top 25 is too easy. We'd have 2-3 G5 champs ranked around #21 getting in over P5 teams ranked in the top 10.


Ok, you’re right.
Top 20 is probably better.
IMO a 5:1 ratio of P5:G5 is healthy mix. Really need two G5 in there *on average*, if twelve teams are involved.
06-08-2021 07:18 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 07:18 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 06:29 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 06:23 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  If you win your conference (P5 or G5) and finish in the top 25*, then you should be guaranteed an invite in to a 12 team playoff.

*ideally, top 25 in any of the three rankings: CFP, AP, Coaches.

Top 25 is too easy. We'd have 2-3 G5 champs ranked around #21 getting in over P5 teams ranked in the top 10.


Ok, you’re right.
Top 20 is probably better.
IMO a 5:1 ratio of P5:G5 is healthy mix. Really need two G5 in there *on average*, if twelve teams are involved.


If a 12-team playoff, I would like to see 1.5 G5 teams per year as an average over a 10-year time span. But that might not be reasonable.
06-08-2021 07:29 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 06:32 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 05:53 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 03:25 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 03:15 PM)usffan Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 01:19 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  So there is no reason and no possibility that G5 conferences will get an autobid. Instead they will probably have a minimum of one at-large reserved for the highest ranked non-autonomous school (BYU, Liberty, Army, UConn, UMass and NMSU get thrown in that pile).

Each of the G5 conferences still gets a vote. There are few certainties in this world, but I am certain that none of them would agree to let their champions be lumped in with the independents.

USFFan

They won't turn down a guaranteed playoff spot. It's better than what they currently have.

9 times out of 10, the American champion will get that slot.

... which is why if I were a commissioner of a G5 other than the AAC, I would recommend voting against this kind of setup. Does no good for the other G5, and actually harms them, to allow the AAC to separate itself by getting this auto-bid almost every year.

IDK if I agree with this. If the AAC Champ and MWC Champ both finish 12-1 or better there is a good chance both get invited (as the G5 rep and an at large).

I'm not sure. One thing that comes to mind is that in an autobid situation, the P5 could hurt that second G5 team. For example, let's say we have a "straight 12" system, with no autobids for anyone. If the 12-1 AAC champ is ranked #9 and the 12-1 MW champ is #12, both get in under that system. If the AAC champ is #9 and the MW champs is #14, the AAC champ is in and the MW champ is out.

If we have a 5-1-6 system with autobids for each P5 and one for the G5, and the AAC champ is #9 and the MW champ is #14, the exact same thing happens - AAC champ in, MW champ out. But now, let's look at the first scenario, where the AAC champ is #9 and the MW champ is #12. The AAC champ is in as the autobid, but the MW champ might not get in, because if one of the P5 champs is outside the top 12, like say #25 Oregon this past season, they would get in and that #12 MW champ would get bumped out.

So basically, compared to a "straight" situation, with no autobids, the second-place G5 team will almost always fare *better*, have a better chance to get in, under a no-autobid system than under a 5-1-6 autobid system. The only G5 team that has a better chance under the autobid system is the #1 G5 team, because that would ensure that they get in even if they are ranked outside the top 12. And I think we agree that the #1 G5 team is usually going to be the AAC team.
(This post was last modified: 06-08-2021 08:38 PM by quo vadis.)
06-08-2021 08:35 PM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 07:12 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 06:58 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 05:55 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The best way to do 5-1-4 or 5-1-6 is to host the opening round the weekend after Army-Navy (3rd Saturday in December).

quarterfinals get played at bowl sites on/around New Years.

For the semis and finals, I advocate hosting them all in the same place to help alleviate travel. Semis get played the weekend of the Pro Bowl (Both on Saturday?) and the NCG gets played the night before the Super Bowl. What’s more American than one giant football championship weekend?

I think the CCG will go if it is 12 teams. Otherwise they will cut a week in the regular season and go to eleven games, either 9+2 OOC or 8+3. And every school will play on CCG depending on standings. It’s best to have that slate on Thanksgiving weekend with round 1 1st weekend of December.

Ya, but I’m not sure any P5 would replace their CCG with a first round that may or may not include their teams. They’ll definitely opt for money they control. Cutting back to 11? Hard to do with scheduling contracts and all, and a backward decision if you are also cutting the number of regular season weekends.

If you’re cutting CCGs, you better go full 16-team playoff and maximize that weekend. And if you are cutting to 11 games, maybe instead you roll the current bowl game allowance into the existing 12-game limit (ie. You only go bowling if you are a part of the neo-NY6/playoff OR if you intentionally schedule 11 regular season games); ADs will have their choice, a merciful way to sunset bowls.

Plus that would defeat one of the primary goals of expanding the playoffs. You want as many interesting/meaningful/valuable games as possible.

-You want as many conferences to feel like they have a shot to be represented for as long as possible through the season
-You want to regular season to be important to make the CCG
-You want the CCG to be important because a playoff spot is on the line
-You want MORE bowls to be important than they are now by making more of them have something on the line
-You want the most total games to matter so that the most people don't change the channel

That is why I don't think ditching conference championships would be on the table, and it's why conference auto-bids, at least to an extent, probably will be.

I've said this before. Look at the NFL model. Every division champ plus a few at-large wild cards to solve for bad divisions. It keeps the regular season interesting. It keeps people tuned when the 8-7 Cowboys and the 9-6 Giants play on week 17 for a division title. It keeps fans of a good 11-win team playing in a division with a 15-win team from tuning out over the last few weeks of the regular season. The system works to keep the most fans engaged as long as possible. We have the friggin template.
(This post was last modified: 06-08-2021 09:09 PM by CoastalJuan.)
06-08-2021 09:08 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 05:53 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 03:25 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 03:15 PM)usffan Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 01:19 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  So there is no reason and no possibility that G5 conferences will get an autobid. Instead they will probably have a minimum of one at-large reserved for the highest ranked non-autonomous school (BYU, Liberty, Army, UConn, UMass and NMSU get thrown in that pile).

Each of the G5 conferences still gets a vote. There are few certainties in this world, but I am certain that none of them would agree to let their champions be lumped in with the independents.

USFFan

They won't turn down a guaranteed playoff spot. It's better than what they currently have.

9 times out of 10, the American champion will get that slot.

... which is why if I were a commissioner of a G5 other than the AAC, I would recommend voting against this kind of setup. Does no good for the other G5, and actually harms them, to allow the AAC to separate itself by getting this auto-bid almost every year.

I get your point, but if you're heading up a G5 not named the AAC then what are your other options? Veto a 12 team setup and hope for 16? Veto this proposal and go back to 8 with little chance of a G5 getting access?

It's true that the AAC has proven themselves the best G5, but I just don't see a better proposal for the G5 that will also be accepted by the other decision makers.

Maybe they can muster up a better deal one day, but they're playing Russian roulette if they don't take this option.
06-08-2021 09:29 PM
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Post: #60
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 08:35 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 06:32 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 05:53 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 03:25 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 03:15 PM)usffan Wrote:  Each of the G5 conferences still gets a vote. There are few certainties in this world, but I am certain that none of them would agree to let their champions be lumped in with the independents.

USFFan

They won't turn down a guaranteed playoff spot. It's better than what they currently have.

9 times out of 10, the American champion will get that slot.

... which is why if I were a commissioner of a G5 other than the AAC, I would recommend voting against this kind of setup. Does no good for the other G5, and actually harms them, to allow the AAC to separate itself by getting this auto-bid almost every year.

IDK if I agree with this. If the AAC Champ and MWC Champ both finish 12-1 or better there is a good chance both get invited (as the G5 rep and an at large).

I'm not sure. One thing that comes to mind is that in an autobid situation, the P5 could hurt that second G5 team. For example, let's say we have a "straight 12" system, with no autobids for anyone. If the 12-1 AAC champ is ranked #9 and the 12-1 MW champ is #12, both get in under that system. If the AAC champ is #9 and the MW champs is #14, the AAC champ is in and the MW champ is out.

If we have a 5-1-6 system with autobids for each P5 and one for the G5, and the AAC champ is #9 and the MW champ is #14, the exact same thing happens - AAC champ in, MW champ out. But now, let's look at the first scenario, where the AAC champ is #9 and the MW champ is #12. The AAC champ is in as the autobid, but the MW champ might not get in, because if one of the P5 champs is outside the top 12, like say #25 Oregon this past season, they would get in and that #12 MW champ would get bumped out.

So basically, compared to a "straight" situation, with no autobids, the second-place G5 team will almost always fare *better*, have a better chance to get in, under a no-autobid system than under a 5-1-6 autobid system. The only G5 team that has a better chance under the autobid system is the #1 G5 team, because that would ensure that they get in :cheers:even if they are ranked outside the top 12. And I think we agree that the #1 G5 team is usually going to be the AAC team.

I think you raise some good points but your position implicitly assumes that the Committee wouldn’t blatantly manipulate the final CFB Rankings to bump a 12th ranked G5 team in favor of a 2 or 3 loss P5 team without any shame or hesitation. I’m not so sanguine that any G5 team not ranked in at least the top 8 in the penultimate playoff rankings would feel comfortable about making it in if they won. Unlike the BCS, now there is no transparent, if flawed, calculation process, it’s just the subjective decisions made on a week-to-week basis by unaccountable, largely P5 affiliated functionaries using ever-shifting justifications.
06-08-2021 09:33 PM
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