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Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 12:39 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  I found three power conference commissioners that went on the record.

Right -- that shows you can find authoritative people to go on the record.

Thamel is either obscuring the fact that the people he quoted have no more say in the matter than you or me, or he's letting people with authority toss out trial balloons without having to take a position with their name attached to it.
06-08-2021 01:32 PM
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Post: #22
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
I’d like 5-1-4 better than 5-1-6

6 seems like an excessive number of at-large selections.

I have to remind myself that this isn’t about creating the fairest playoff—they are trying to create the most profitable one.

This would mean just 2 play in games rather than the 4 that a 5-1-6 would require.

Two main reasons—I don’t think the 5th and 6th best at large (probably teams that didn’t win their P5 conferences) have a very legitimate claim at a national championship.

I think having all 4 bowls hosting quarterfinals not knowing who one of their participants is until 10-14 days before the game will be good for attendance. With 5-1-4, the 3 vs 6 and 4 vs 5 match ups would be known the Sunday after the CCGs. The only wait would be to find out who is playing seeds 1 and 2.
(This post was last modified: 06-08-2021 01:49 PM by Fighting Muskie.)
06-08-2021 01:33 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 01:19 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  paraphrased your statement for brevity Quo:

(06-08-2021 08:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  ... if (they) have autobids then the G5 will get one ...

Right now, they can do that with the NY6 bids. But with expanded playoffs there will be no more NY6.

These assertions are both false. First the Playoff is not a standard NCAA tournament following NCAA rules. It is a special situation agreed to by the stakeholders who have uneven power. Whatever they decide will be like a collective bargaining agreement, the G5 will yield any regular NCAA rights and accept the new system. NCAA ByLaws will be adjusted to the format agreed, per usual.

So there is no reason and no possibility that G5 conferences will get an autobid. Instead they will probably have a minimum of one at-large reserved for the highest ranked non-autonomous school (BYU, Liberty, Army, UConn, UMass and NMSU get thrown in that pile).

As for the NY6, they will probably remain in some form either as 2nd round games hosted by the top four seeds, and two moving out of rotation to host 1st round. (Advantages: Championship game only a week later than now, only two "on-campus" semi-finals reducing unpredictability; two more bowls added to NY6 for 4 Christmas weekend games. Disadvantages: two NY6 Bowls move back to Christmas, greatly reducing the value of those games, especially for fans staying in town; four New Years games will see less demand as fans of teams will have spend vacation already on first round -- basically the hit is on the venue providers in this scheme)

Or they may go to unbalanced approach with all twelve schools playing in NY6 games as 1st round playoff, and the top two ranked winners getting 2nd round byes; the top four seed winners would get on campus home games in round 2 or 3; the Championship game pushes back two weeks. (Advantages: NY6 remains intact, four winning P5 schools get playoff home game, still one Championship game at neutral site, no other bowls required, no other disruption required. Disadvantages: Funky 2nd round byes, playoffs end a week later)

Bottom Line, we don't know what the format will be, so we don't know if this enhances or reduces the NY6 bowls. I think the latter is easy to execute, but the former is simpler on American minds, so probably wins out.

The use of the NY6 comes down to format chosen.

Well, when I said "if they have autobids the G5 will get one", I meant that there will be one autobid reserved for the entirety of the G5, much as there is one NY6 autobid for the entirety of the G5. Not that each G5 conference will get an autobid. They won't. Whether 8 teams or 12, each P5 will get an autobid, and there will be a single reserved autobid for the entire G5, like there is now for the NY6. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

But I would guess that this bid will be reserved for the top G5 champ, with independents not eligible.

As for the NY6, I think it is gone if the playoffs go to 8 or more. The current major bowls will be integrated in to the playoffs, and even if the new CFP tries to designate a second tier of bowls as "major" it won't succeed, the public will not buy it.

But my point is, if the current major bowls get integrated into the playoffs - say four of them as the QFs of an 8 team playoff and two of them as the SFs, on a rotating basis, that means they will not be eligible to host non-playoff at large teams the way they currently are. And that would hurt the B1G and SEC, IMO. Currently, the B1G and SEC often place three or four teams in the combined NY6/playoffs, and that gives them more prestige than the other P5. An 8-team playoff would not permit that kind of distinction.

But this is all speculation, maybe we shall see.
(This post was last modified: 06-08-2021 01:44 PM by quo vadis.)
06-08-2021 01:41 PM
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Post: #24
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 10:33 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Here's the CFP rankings after the CCGs.

RED=autobid

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Notre Dame
5. Texas A&M
6. Oklahoma
7. Florida
8. Cincinnati
9. Georgia
10. Iowa State
11. Indiana
12. Coastal Carolina (left out)
.
.
25. Oregon

So the 12-team would somewhat resemble this:

Play-in Games:
Georgia (9 seed) versus Oregon (12 seed)
Iowa State (10 seed) versus Indiana (11 seed)

Round of 8:
9 vs. 12 winner versus Alabama (1 seed)
10 vs 11 winner versus Clemson (2 seed)
Ohio State (3 seed) versus Cincinnati (8 seed)
Notre Dame (4 seed) versus Florida (7 seed)
Texas A&M (5 seed) versus Oklahoma (6 seed)

I like the format. The only thing I would like to see is that the best seed gets worst available seed instead of locking Alabama into the 9 vs 12 winner for example.
06-08-2021 01:47 PM
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RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 08:40 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 08:36 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  This is good news in my opinion. I expected 8, so 12 would be a tremendous boon. Yes, there will be some early round blowouts but the massive increase in varieties of teams and not de facto eliminating most schools by October will make this a great move for the sport.

Sure, we need more teams with 3-4 losses in the playoffs. That sounds just great.

Worried about a CCG upset letting a bad team into the playoffs? First of all, that's not likely to happen if you make one small tweak to the rules - don't require divisions. In fact, why not go one step further and require conferences to send their two "best" (i.e. highest-ranked) teams every year? History says if you do that you're virtually guaranteed two top 25 teams in the CCG.

https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2020/...right.html
(This post was last modified: 06-08-2021 01:51 PM by Hokie Mark.)
06-08-2021 01:51 PM
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Post: #26
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
There are some problems with 12 and having byes.

1) 4 first round games will compete with NFL in mid-December.
2) One or more of the P5 can be knocked out before the quarterfinals as only 3 or 4 conference champs will have byes.
3) The 4 first round losers aren't going to be real interested in a bowl and so that diminishes potential bowl participants.

One alternative is to keep the NY6. Each becomes a playoff bowl, knocking the number of teams from 12 to 6. Then 2 teams get a bye in the 2nd round, possibly through re-seeding, but also possibly predetermined (1 vs. 12 and 2 vs. 11 winners get byes even if the lower seeded team wins). However, that creates 3 rounds after New Years and it becomes more difficult to do home field with weather conditions in the north.
06-08-2021 01:58 PM
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Post: #27
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 01:58 PM)bullet Wrote:  There are some problems with 12 and having byes.

1) 4 first round games will compete with NFL in mid-December.
2) One or more of the P5 can be knocked out before the quarterfinals as only 3 or 4 conference champs will have byes.
3) The 4 first round losers aren't going to be real interested in a bowl and so that diminishes potential bowl participants.

One alternative is to keep the NY6. Each becomes a playoff bowl, knocking the number of teams from 12 to 6. Then 2 teams get a bye in the 2nd round, possibly through re-seeding, but also possibly predetermined (1 vs. 12 and 2 vs. 11 winners get byes even if the lower seeded team wins). However, that creates 3 rounds after New Years and it becomes more difficult to do home field with weather conditions in the north.

Take two early Bowl games and use those as a play in round. Have 4 high profile New Years Eve/New Years Day Bowl games as your quarterfinal round. Play a semifinal a week or so after the New Years games and the National Championship the third week of January. Bowls are protected, everybody in the playoff gets to play in at least one Bowl Game, plenty of non-playoff Bowls for everyone else.
06-08-2021 02:08 PM
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Post: #28
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
Yes, the destruction of CFP is almost here. Results of expanded playoff:
1) Absolutely meaningless regular season
2) G5 teams have better chance of making playoff than Big Ten teams no named Ohio State.
3) ND is still allowed to maintain their ridiculous status without being forced into a conference
4) Ratings will plummet in a few years when people realize that there's no reason to watch in November.

Ratings are down for major sports outside of NFL because the regular seasons are absolutely pointless. Also, every game has a huge comeback so the games are always close at the end, so why bother watching until the 4th Quarter?
(This post was last modified: 06-08-2021 02:22 PM by Scoochpooch1.)
06-08-2021 02:17 PM
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Post: #29
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 01:51 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 08:40 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 08:36 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  This is good news in my opinion. I expected 8, so 12 would be a tremendous boon. Yes, there will be some early round blowouts but the massive increase in varieties of teams and not de facto eliminating most schools by October will make this a great move for the sport.

Sure, we need more teams with 3-4 losses in the playoffs. That sounds just great.

Worried about a CCG upset letting a bad team into the playoffs? First of all, that's not likely to happen if you make one small tweak to the rules - don't require divisions. In fact, why not go one step further and require conferences to send their two "best" (i.e. highest-ranked) teams every year? History says if you do that you're virtually guaranteed two top 25 teams in the CCG.

https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2020/...right.html

No need for Divisions nor interconference games anymore outside of rivalry games.
06-08-2021 02:21 PM
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Post: #30
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
Here’s a break down of who would receive at larges in a 5-1-6 vs 5-1-4 over 2014-2020 using the Committee Rankings:

Big 10: 13 10
SEC: 11 10
ACC: 4 1
PAC 12: 5 1
Big 12: 6 3
ND: 3 3

Both systems net the Big 10 and SEC oodles of at large bids while the other 3 lag behind.

5-1-6 isn’t terrible for the Big 12, but they’d really suffer under 5-1-4.

The PAC 12 and ACC would struggle to get at larges in 5-1-4.
(This post was last modified: 06-08-2021 02:35 PM by Fighting Muskie.)
06-08-2021 02:35 PM
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Post: #31
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 01:58 PM)bullet Wrote:  There are some problems with 12 and having byes.

1) 4 first round games will compete with NFL in mid-December.
2) One or more of the P5 can be knocked out before the quarterfinals as only 3 or 4 conference champs will have byes.
3) The 4 first round losers aren't going to be real interested in a bowl and so that diminishes potential bowl participants.

One alternative is to keep the NY6. Each becomes a playoff bowl, knocking the number of teams from 12 to 6. Then 2 teams get a bye in the 2nd round, possibly through re-seeding, but also possibly predetermined (1 vs. 12 and 2 vs. 11 winners get byes even if the lower seeded team wins). However, that creates 3 rounds after New Years and it becomes more difficult to do home field with weather conditions in the north.

Good list.

For #1: When does the NFL move to Saturday? Can CFB "claim" 1 more weekend with TV partners? Would mid-week games work for the first round?

For #2: we could help by giving any P5 Champs home games in the first round. Heck, give the Top 8 seeds to 8 champs (but of course make the "top" independent eligible for one of those 8 spots too). That way a "stronger" at-large always plays a "weaker" opponent (the #8 champ) than any subsequent at-large.

For #3: Yep. Bowls are getting flushed. Assign Bowl names to the first round (if not on campus) and rotate those with non-playoff bowls played closer to NYD. But, there's not much that can be done to save that which exists outside the playoff model.

It looks like the 12-team model is predicated on a mid-December round. Four January rounds is not being considered.

(06-08-2021 02:35 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Here’s a break down of who would receive at larges in a 5-1-6 vs 5-1-4 over 2014-2020 using the Committee Rankings:

Big 10: 13 10
SEC: 11 10
ACC: 4 1
PAC 12: 5 1
Big 12: 6 3
ND: 3 3

Both systems net the Big 10 and SEC oodles of at large bids while the other 3 lag behind.

5-1-6 isn’t terrible for the Big 12, but they’d really suffer under 5-1-4.

The PAC 12 and ACC would struggle to get at larges in 5-1-4.
Two first-round games almost makes it seem like a wasted weekend. If you can fit 2 games into a Saturday, you can fit in 3, maybe add a 4th to Friday Night too. In the other-direction, if you're only adding At Large #3 and #4, you may be better off incorporating an extra game or two on CCG weekend to give the same teams access without adding an extra week.
(This post was last modified: 06-08-2021 02:58 PM by Crayton.)
06-08-2021 02:43 PM
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Post: #32
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 01:51 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Worried about a CCG upset letting a bad team into the playoffs? First of all, that's not likely to happen ...

It's not likely to happen at all. There's never even been a team with 3 or more losses in a P5 CCG except for twice when the actual winner of a division was on NCAA probation and didn't play in the CCG.

There's no reason for anyone to freak out about "what if" scenarios that have about a 1% chance of ever happening, and there's no reason to build an entire playoff format around trying to prevent 1% possibilities from happening.
06-08-2021 02:51 PM
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Post: #33
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 02:51 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 01:51 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Worried about a CCG upset letting a bad team into the playoffs? First of all, that's not likely to happen ...

It's not likely to happen at all. There's never even been a team with 3 or more losses in a P5 CCG except for twice when the actual winner of a division was on NCAA probation and didn't play in the CCG.

There's no reason for anyone to freak out about "what if" scenarios that have about a 1% chance of ever happening, and there's no reason to build an entire playoff format around trying to prevent 1% possibilities from happening.

Northwestern and Pittsburgh both made it with 4 and 5 losses, without a probation situation. My Gators went to Atlanta with 8 wins in 2016. I suspect there are nearly 20 examples historically, happens about every other year. Divisionless should be allowed, but no reason to enforce it.
(This post was last modified: 06-08-2021 03:06 PM by Crayton.)
06-08-2021 03:02 PM
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Post: #34
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 10:33 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Here's the CFP rankings after the CCGs.

RED=autobid

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Notre Dame
5. Texas A&M
6. Oklahoma
7. Florida
8. Cincinnati
9. Georgia
10. Iowa State
11. Indiana
12. Coastal Carolina (left out)
.
.
25. Oregon

So the 12-team would somewhat resemble this:

Play-in Games:
Georgia (9 seed) versus Oregon (12 seed)
Iowa State (10 seed) versus Indiana (11 seed)

Round of 8:
9 vs. 12 winner versus Alabama (1 seed)
10 vs 11 winner versus Clemson (2 seed)
Ohio State (3 seed) versus Cincinnati (8 seed)
Notre Dame (4 seed) versus Florida (7 seed)
Texas A&M (5 seed) versus Oklahoma (6 seed)

So you would have 5 teams in your next round?!?!?!?

[Image: giphy.gif]

The only way 12 makes sense is if it's:

5 vs. 12
6 vs. 11
7 vs. 10
8 vs. 9

USFFan
06-08-2021 03:13 PM
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Post: #35
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 02:17 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  Yes, the destruction of CFP is almost here. Results of expanded playoff:
1) Absolutely meaningless regular season
2) G5 teams have better chance of making playoff than Big Ten teams no named Ohio State.
3) ND is still allowed to maintain their ridiculous status without being forced into a conference
4) Ratings will plummet in a few years when people realize that there's no reason to watch in November.

Ratings are down for major sports outside of NFL because the regular seasons are absolutely pointless. Also, every game has a huge comeback so the games are always close at the end, so why bother watching until the 4th Quarter?

1. This is somewhat true, but I'd argue part of the reason CFB has the best regular season is because it's shorter than NFL's and certainly the NBA and MLB regular seasons.

3. So what? Why do they need to be in a conference? They're probably the most chronically overrated CFB team but having them in the CFP will increase the pot of CFP money we all share.

4. Disagree here. A lot of CFB interest is regional and parochial. People are still going to watch the ACC and Pac title games. And having more geographic representation in the CFB will just increase the ratings.
06-08-2021 03:14 PM
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Post: #36
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 01:19 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  So there is no reason and no possibility that G5 conferences will get an autobid. Instead they will probably have a minimum of one at-large reserved for the highest ranked non-autonomous school (BYU, Liberty, Army, UConn, UMass and NMSU get thrown in that pile).

Each of the G5 conferences still gets a vote. There are few certainties in this world, but I am certain that none of them would agree to let their champions be lumped in with the independents.

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06-08-2021 03:15 PM
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Post: #37
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 03:15 PM)usffan Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 01:19 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  So there is no reason and no possibility that G5 conferences will get an autobid. Instead they will probably have a minimum of one at-large reserved for the highest ranked non-autonomous school (BYU, Liberty, Army, UConn, UMass and NMSU get thrown in that pile).

Each of the G5 conferences still gets a vote. There are few certainties in this world, but I am certain that none of them would agree to let their champions be lumped in with the independents.

USFFan

Yeah, that is the bone that is thrown to the G5 conferences. Even if they only get one bid among them, at least they get the schadenfreude of keeping BYU ineligible for that bid.
06-08-2021 03:24 PM
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Post: #38
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 03:15 PM)usffan Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 01:19 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  So there is no reason and no possibility that G5 conferences will get an autobid. Instead they will probably have a minimum of one at-large reserved for the highest ranked non-autonomous school (BYU, Liberty, Army, UConn, UMass and NMSU get thrown in that pile).

Each of the G5 conferences still gets a vote. There are few certainties in this world, but I am certain that none of them would agree to let their champions be lumped in with the independents.

USFFan

They won't turn down a guaranteed playoff spot. It's better than what they currently have.

9 times out of 10, the American champion will get that slot.
06-08-2021 03:25 PM
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Post: #39
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
I would run it guaranteeing the P-5 champ a slot. That's five. I would then guarantee 4 P-5 seconds either divisional winners or a second school in the winners division. I would gurantee two spots to the G-5. I would guarantee one and only one true at large.

The top four get a week off. Using last year as an example:

1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Iowa State
5. Washington vs. 12. Coastal
6. ND (using ACC second) vs. 11. Cincy
7. TAMU (SEC second) vs. 10. Florida (the only at large)
8. OU (B12 second) vs. 9. NW (Big 10 at large)

The Pac 12 does not get a second team. Then:

1. Bama vs. OU/NW
2. Clemson vs. TAMU/Florida
3. Ohio State vs. ND/Cincy
4. Iowa State vs. Washington/Coastal

A seeded format like this provides a chance for the 4/5/12 school to enjoy an upset before getting wacked by the number one.

Notre Dame has to be ranked higher than four of the P-5's second schools to get into the event.
06-08-2021 03:41 PM
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Post: #40
RE: Pete Thamel: 12-Team CFP Model Leads The Way
(06-08-2021 02:51 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-08-2021 01:51 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Worried about a CCG upset letting a bad team into the playoffs? First of all, that's not likely to happen ...

It's not likely to happen at all. There's never even been a team with 3 or more losses in a P5 CCG except for twice when the actual winner of a division was on NCAA probation and didn't play in the CCG.

There's no reason for anyone to freak out about "what if" scenarios that have about a 1% chance of ever happening, and there's no reason to build an entire playoff format around trying to prevent 1% possibilities from happening.

I would be much more concerned about a team with 3 losses gets an at large bid. It will happen routinely under the 12 team playoff model.
06-08-2021 04:10 PM
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