Will realignment among the P5 occur in 2024?

if yes, what does it look like?

(06-04-2021 11:12 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Will realignment among the P5 occur in 2024?

if yes, what does it look like?

I take it that you chose the year 2024 because some conference tv contracts
are up for negotiations at that time. That is only 3 1/2 years away. If that is the case, if there will be any movement at all then, it seems likely discussions should start leaking out this year. Schools would have to start giving notices to conferences in time to move without facing consequences for short notices to leave. So, the fact that 2021 is about half over, Im going to say there will be no realignment among the P5 in 2024.

I think it's like a 53-47 odds in favor of any P5 realignment happening. So I basically am on the fence.

Forced to make a prediction, I think the Big 12 and/or Pac-12 will be convinced to go after new members.

Financially, when accounting for Tier III rights, the Big 12 has the upper hand over the Pac, and I expect that to only continue, so I think the Pac would have to look at G5 leagues for expansion.

Since the state of Texas keeps getting bigger and bigger and bigger, with no signs of stopping, I would not be shocked for the Pac to go after Houston and choose-your-own-adventure among SMU, San Diego State, Colorado State, Air Force, or some surprise candidate.

For the Big 12, UCF itself and the state of Florida are getting bigger and bigger. That alumni base is going to grow more and more. They seem like they're going to be a worthy investment. The other candidate could be, barring Pac expansion, Houston, Col State, or Cincinnati.

I don't think the other three P5's are likely to expand. They'll just balloon in revenue without expansion.

mybe espn would like to expand and add the MWC and AAC to the playoffs but not include them in the A5

(06-04-2021 11:41 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Financially, when accounting for Tier III rights, the Big 12 has the upper hand over the Pac, and I expect that to only continue, so I think the Pac would have to look at G5 leagues for expansion.

Since the state of Texas keeps getting bigger and bigger and bigger, with no signs of stopping, I would not be shocked for the Pac to go after Houston and choose-your-own-adventure among SMU, San Diego State, Colorado State, Air Force, or some surprise candidate.

Houston doesn't even own the Houston media market, and TDECU Stadium only seats 40,000, or the approx. size of Reser Stadium. SMU can't even fill its 30,000 seat stadium. What TV interest is there with SMU hosting Cal? In fact, while unlikely, the better play would be to trade Colorado back to the Big 12 and replace them with the growth market in the Pacific corridor--Las Vegas. While that's anathema to the Wolf Pack fans out there, Allegiant Stadium elevates the Rebels in a big, big way. BYU remains out there if the Sunday scheduling in other sports can be addressed.

(06-04-2021 11:41 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  For the Big 12, UCF itself and the state of Florida are getting bigger and bigger. That alumni base is going to grow more and more. They seem like they're going to be a worthy investment. The other candidate could be, barring Pac expansion, Houston, Col State, or Cincinnati.

The Big 12 is still a midwestern conference and WVU is the sore thumb there. UCF isn't a real add or other conferences would have done so by now. UT would likely veto any more Texas schools, so the best options are:

1. Air Force (in football, yes, other sports, not so much)
2. Cincinnati (as a traveling partner for WVU)
3. Memphis (but they need a new stadium)

Want a wild card? North Dakota State, with a commitment to a new stadium. Fargo is closer to the old Big 8 schools than Texas is.

If you don't, and absolutely have to go to 12, pick up UCF and USF as a tandem. The networks will make this call in the end.

(06-04-2021 11:41 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  I don't think the other three P5's are likely to expand. They'll just balloon in revenue without expansion.

Agreed, unless the ACC wants to toss Boston College.

I’ll stand by the stance I’ve taken on all threads. I think it all comes down to two things:

Does ESPN want to keep the Big 12 together?

Is Oklahoma happy in the Big 12?

If the answer to both is yes, then ESPN pays a price that Oklahoma is happy with.

If the first answer is no, then I think ESPN incentivized the best Big 12 properties to move to a conference they control.

If the second answer is no, that’s where I see Oklahoma, Fox, and the Big Ten working together to bring the Sooners and Jayhawks to the Big Ten.

I think the PAC 12 goes to 14 and the Big 12 goes back to 12 at least or to 14. I think P5 conferences are going to need 14 teams.i think quantity of games are a easy way to expand the payouts. I think the Big 12 gets Houston, Memphis and Cincinnati. I'm only unsure of the #4 add but I would prefer a school that fits in the Big 12 north. For the PAC 12 it really depends on who is #11. If you get Colorado state for the South then maybe Boise State for the North. Though does a Idaho school bring more tv viewers. Would Hawaii with a late start time (maybe extra ESPN or fox game) and week Zero access outweigh the strength of Boise State football. Honestly the PAC 12 has to make the most out of bad choices.

(06-04-2021 12:07 PM)46566 Wrote:  I think the PAC 12 goes to 14 and the Big 12 goes back to 12 at least or to 14. I think P5 conferences are going to need 14 teams.i think quantity of games are a easy way to expand the payouts. I think the Big 12 gets Houston, Memphis and Cincinnati. I'm only unsure of the #4 add but I would prefer a school that fits in the Big 12 north. For the PAC 12 it really depends on who is #11. If you get Colorado state for the South then maybe Boise State for the North. Though does a Idaho school bring more tv viewers. Would Hawaii with a late start time (maybe extra ESPN or fox game) and week Zero access outweigh the strength of Boise State football. Honestly the PAC 12 has to make the most out of bad choices.

I don’t see any conferences growing with non-P5 schools. Replacing lost members, yes, but no one is going to invite anyone from outside of the “club” to come in and share a piece of their pie.

Mike: is UNM a possibility for the PAC-12?

(06-04-2021 12:29 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Mike: is UNM a possibility for the PAC-12?

I'm not Mike, but no possibility. No media market, bad sports, financial issues with both the state and the university.


I don't think the Pac-12 expands anytime soon (unless they can pry away Big 12 members).

Hum, no sure how to vote, as I have Oklahoma at significantly greater than 50% chance to move July 1st, 2025. (Don't know whether B1G or SEC is the leader in the clubhouse.)

I guess that means they'd announce in 2024. Would that count as 2024, an announcement to leave in 2025 right after the GOR expires?

Nobody else dares move until OU makes a decision, because they have no clue what the Big 12 will look like, nor where anyone else stands. The B1G will definitely get a major jump in 2023 and the Pac-12 will have a completely different media structure in 2024 along with new GORs that will run into the 2030s (not that anyone was joining nor leaving the Pac-12 anyway).

But since I'm not sure what 2024 means, announcement or actual move, I didn't vote. And even if I voted yes, it's less than 100%, probably less than 80%, certain Oklahoma will move. Absolutely no other P5 movement will happen if they do not move.

(06-04-2021 12:01 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(06-04-2021 11:41 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Financially, when accounting for Tier III rights, the Big 12 has the upper hand over the Pac, and I expect that to only continue, so I think the Pac would have to look at G5 leagues for expansion.

Since the state of Texas keeps getting bigger and bigger and bigger, with no signs of stopping, I would not be shocked for the Pac to go after Houston and choose-your-own-adventure among SMU, San Diego State, Colorado State, Air Force, or some surprise candidate.

Houston doesn't even own the Houston media market, and TDECU Stadium only seats 40,000, or the approx. size of Reser Stadium. SMU can't even fill its 30,000 seat stadium. What TV interest is there with SMU hosting Cal? In fact, while unlikely, the better play would be to trade Colorado back to the Big 12 and replace them with the growth market in the Pacific corridor--Las Vegas. While that's anathema to the Wolf Pack fans out there, Allegiant Stadium elevates the Rebels in a big, big way. BYU remains out there if the Sunday scheduling in other sports can be addressed.

(06-04-2021 11:41 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  For the Big 12, UCF itself and the state of Florida are getting bigger and bigger. That alumni base is going to grow more and more. They seem like they're going to be a worthy investment. The other candidate could be, barring Pac expansion, Houston, Col State, or Cincinnati.

The Big 12 is still a midwestern conference and WVU is the sore thumb there. UCF isn't a real add or other conferences would have done so by now. UT would likely veto any more Texas schools, so the best options are:

1. Air Force (in football, yes, other sports, not so much)
2. Cincinnati (as a traveling partner for WVU)
3. Memphis (but they need a new stadium)

Want a wild card? North Dakota State, with a commitment to a new stadium. Fargo is closer to the old Big 8 schools than Texas is.

If you don't, and absolutely have to go to 12, pick up UCF and USF as a tandem. The networks will make this call in the end.

(06-04-2021 11:41 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  I don't think the other three P5's are likely to expand. They'll just balloon in revenue without expansion.

Agreed, unless the ACC wants to toss Boston College.

Houston doesn’t need to own the media market to be invited to some autonomous conference and our stadium was designed to easily add 20k seats and there are a handful of A5 schools that seat less than 60k
if most any g5 school was able to play for a national championship their attendance would most certainly go up at least for awhile, in houston’s case and the other top g5s in big city’s with a recruiting base it would be for the long term

(06-04-2021 12:39 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  I don't think the Pac-12 expands anytime soon (unless they can pry away Big 12 members).

Expanding offers no profit to the existing members unless one or more of the new members moves the needle in football as much as OU or UT. Arguably the last expansion was a wash at best (i.e., the Pac-10 teams would be making at least as much per school today if they hadn't added CU and UU), so why add more unless you're getting a whale like the Sooners or Horns.

Big XII --- snags Cincy. And UCF. ESPN pays them to make it worth it.

PAC holds tight.

SEC holds tight.

Big Ten holds tight.

ACC holds tight.

Quote:Houston doesn’t need to own the media market to be invited to some autonomous conference and our stadium was designed to easily add 20k seats and there are a handful of A5 schools that seat less than 60k
if most any g5 school was able to play for a national championship their attendance would most certainly go up at least for awhile, in houston’s case and the other top g5s in big city’s with a recruiting base it would be for the long term

Houston could build its attendance up in the Big 12. Not so sure about SMU, though. Their ticket base looks more like Rice than TCU or Baylor.

(06-04-2021 04:16 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-04-2021 12:39 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  I don't think the Pac-12 expands anytime soon (unless they can pry away Big 12 members).

Expanding offers no profit to the existing members unless one or more of the new members moves the needle in football as much as OU or UT. Arguably the last expansion was a wash at best (i.e., the Pac-10 teams would be making at least as much per school today if they hadn't added CU and UU), so why add more unless you're getting a whale like the Sooners or Horns.

I always wonder if the 12 team requirement for CCG wasn't in place, would the Pac 12 have expanded at all?

(06-04-2021 11:31 AM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(06-04-2021 11:12 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Will realignment among the P5 occur in 2024?

if yes, what does it look like?

I take it that you chose the year 2024 because some conference tv contracts
are up for negotiations at that time. That is only 3 1/2 years away. If that is the case, if there will be any movement at all then, it seems likely discussions should start leaking out this year. Schools would have to start giving notices to conferences in time to move without facing consequences for short notices to leave. So, the fact that 2021 is about half over, Im going to say there will be no realignment among the P5 in 2024.

Yes, the PAC and B12 will be in flux contractually and the B10 stands to add some distance to the gap the SEC will establish. That gap is more than sufficient to drive more instability, but it isn't even the greatest destabilizing factor. A Supreme Court ruling this Summer on NIL will bring pressure, but the ruling in the Summer of 2022 which will decide if stipends can legally be capped, or which may set the stipend limits much higher will be the single greatest potential change bringer of them all. Think in terms of creating a wholly distinct separate pay for play tier which would reconstitute 4 or all 5 of the current P conferences and would impact hoops as well.

We aren't talking market driven realignment because it is about dead as a model. But we are talking revenue driven realignment based on branding, recruiting access, and an intentional distancing a schools image from some in their current conferences and that's what happens if the SCOTUS doesn't kill amateurism in revenue sports establishing a new tier of college athletics economically and in the process forcing some schools out of nearly every P5 conference forcing reevaluations of existing contracts and the opening of existing GORs and the signing of new ones, all while reforming the P5 and possibly making it something else in form.

So there are a boat load of major stressors on what we have now.

Because ever since they got rid of the CFA there's always been movement.

(06-04-2021 06:00 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(06-04-2021 04:16 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-04-2021 12:39 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  I don't think the Pac-12 expands anytime soon (unless they can pry away Big 12 members).

Expanding offers no profit to the existing members unless one or more of the new members moves the needle in football as much as OU or UT. Arguably the last expansion was a wash at best (i.e., the Pac-10 teams would be making at least as much per school today if they hadn't added CU and UU), so why add more unless you're getting a whale like the Sooners or Horns.

I always wonder if the 12 team requirement for CCG wasn't in place, would the Pac 12 have expanded at all?

Once the Pac-10 presidents signed on to Tennis Larry's plan to land UT and expand to 16, they were pretty much locked in to at least 12, given the conditions put on the invitations (CU and UT got unconditional invitations; the others were conditioned on UT saying yes). CU said yes before UT said no, thus the Pac had at least 11 no matter what, and the presidents had authorized Larry to invite UU in the event that happened.

But maybe if a CCG with 10 teams had been permitted back then, they would have structured it differently and waited until getting a yes/no from UT before doing anything else.

I thought the Pac-12 invited Colorado first to lock Baylor out as Texas Tech wanted Baylor in instead of Colorado. But it was 10 years ago.