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What happens in 2024?
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Kit-Cat Offline
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Post: #41
RE: What happens in 2024?
(06-05-2021 11:45 AM)bluesox Wrote:  I’d guess 1 of these 3 things happen :

OU and KU to the big 10
OU and Ok state to the SEC or PAC 12 with 4-8 others if moving to the pac
Big 12 adds 2 from BYU, Col state and Cincinnati

If OU/KU go B1G that probably pushes Texas to the PAC which is easier since Oklahoma State doesn't have to be part of the deal.

UT/TT/TCU/SMU to the PAC. They go to 16 to match the B1G who is now 16.

XII then reloads with BYU, Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, Tulane to join Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Iowa St, Baylor, WVU to still be a P5 conference, albeit with a smaller 15 mill per school deal.

05-stirthepot
06-05-2021 12:02 PM
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johnintx Offline
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Post: #42
RE: What happens in 2024?
(06-05-2021 11:51 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(06-05-2021 11:37 AM)johnintx Wrote:  That's a big red flag for me, too. It looks to me like neither ESPN nor Fox wish to continue to overpay for the Big 12. If you're a school other than Oklahoma or Texas, you have reason to be concerned.

The XII contracts have always had a short term feel to them.

Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri, TAMU were picked off to other conferences and they roped what was left over into a contract.

This is pretty true. The Big 12 has always been business arrangement first, conference second. The schools don't like each other that much, but they like the TV contract. However, eight of the schools have now been together for 25 years. If you're an OU fan under say, 45, it's hard to remember not being in a conference with Texas Tech and Baylor.

Texas is happy in the Big 12 as long as they are getting paid for the Longhorn Network. They get to play a lot of games in the region and get to run the conference on the business side. The Big 12 offers everything Texas wants. Once they get football back to where they want it, they'll be even happier.

The SEC (ESPN) and the B1G (Fox) will get into a bidding war for OU. As much as OU values playing their neighbors, the financial difference will be too big for them to stay. I do not see a scenario where the B12 will command a similar contract to the SEC or B1G. If they do, OU stays local.

If it is cheaper for ESPN to simply move OU and a buddy to the SEC than to pay the B12, and increase OU's income in the process, they'll do it. OTOH, if Fox can increase the value of their B1G package by adding OU, OU will listen. For the SEC, OSU would be the partner, while KU would be the partner for a move to the B1G. The SEC's ability to add OSU would be the tiebreaker. OU is not tied to OSU at this time, but would prefer to be with them. While OSU does not add market value, they add institutional fit and competitive value.
(This post was last modified: 06-05-2021 03:50 PM by johnintx.)
06-05-2021 03:45 PM
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #43
RE: What happens in 2024?
Pac 12 perspective from San Jose Mercury News Hotline Mailbag: https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/06/04/h...ntraction/
06-05-2021 06:57 PM
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BraveKnight Offline
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Post: #44
RE: What happens in 2024?
(06-05-2021 12:02 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(06-05-2021 11:45 AM)bluesox Wrote:  I’d guess 1 of these 3 things happen :

OU and KU to the big 10
OU and Ok state to the SEC or PAC 12 with 4-8 others if moving to the pac
Big 12 adds 2 from BYU, Col state and Cincinnati

If OU/KU go B1G that probably pushes Texas to the PAC which is easier since Oklahoma State doesn't have to be part of the deal.

UT/TT/TCU/SMU to the PAC. They go to 16 to match the B1G who is now 16.

XII then reloads with BYU, Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, Tulane to join Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Iowa St, Baylor, WVU to still be a P5 conference, albeit with a smaller 15 mill per school deal.

05-stirthepot
Memphis didn’t even make the Big 12’s final list a few years ago. UCF would be added before half the schools you mentioned.
06-05-2021 07:04 PM
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texoma Offline
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Post: #45
RE: What happens in 2024?
(06-04-2021 11:58 PM)ICThawk Wrote:  
(06-04-2021 10:16 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(06-04-2021 09:16 PM)ICThawk Wrote:  
(06-04-2021 08:59 PM)schmolik Wrote:  I thought the Pac-12 invited Colorado first to lock Baylor out as Texas Tech wanted Baylor in instead of Colorado. But it was 10 years ago.

Having lived through the situation, it was much more complicated than that with lots of moving pieces. I don't want to hijack this thread but would be willing to recount the movements (and non-movements) but only if Fighting Muskie OKs it since this is his thread.

I give special dispensation for nostalgic reminiscing of the 2010 realignment.

Having been graciously given dispensation, I reminisce as follows:

Larry Scott, PAC Commissioner, came up with a plan to add 6 schools to the PAC and become a major force in the Central Time Zone by adding a group of "power" programs to the PAC. This was partially in response to the Big 10 announcing it was considering expansion. His plan was to add 6 schools (CU, UT, TA&M, TT, OU and OSU). Colorado was contacted first and immediately accepted (they had never been really happy in the Big 8, let alone the Big 12, and had actually been somewhat PAC oriented for some years since almost 15% of their student body was from California, more than from any state other than Colorado).
During discussions with the remaining schools, it became clear that TA&M was NOT going to the PAC and had decided to go to the SEC. The PAC did NOT want Baylor (the PAC was not "thrilled" with TT & OSU but felt that was the price it had to pay to get UT & OU) and approached KU to fill in for TA&M. Scott went even so far as filing a flight plan from Austin to Lawrence. So, it was going to be CU (already accepted) and UT, TT, OU, OSU and KU.
However, in further talks with UT, UT began wavering, mainly due to the LHN. (UT wanted to retain it separately from the PAC). Talks broke down with UT and that brought the plan to a halt. Without UT (and TA&M), the PAC had little interest in adding the other schools (and that feeling seemed to be mutual with the prospective schools, though a year or so later David Boren then head of OU proposed that OU & OSU move to the PAC alone, which the PAC rejected). Now sitting at 11 members UU grabbed the golden ring as the only viable school anywhere between California and Colorado so the PAC 12 could hold a championship game as NCAA rules at the time required 12 conference members to do so. (The rules still do but the Big 12 and AAC have both received waivers.)
Hence, we are where we are today!

I think that is a good analysis. However, Schmolik makes a good point that the PAC took Colorado to lock out Baylor. When Baylor threatened a law suit to replace Colorado, the PAC immediately issued an invitation to Colorado. The PAC knew that if the deal with the Big12 fell through they could add Utah for the 12th member.

AS for the OU-OSU to the PAC a few years later, that was David Boren and possibly Larry Scott was involved, trying to force UT to move to the PAC. It was a bluff and DeLoss Dodds the UT AD called the bluff by saying that UT would look East to the ACC. I do not think Dodds had any intention of going to the ACC he was just calling Boren's bluff, but that is why some ACC fans still cling to the hope UT will join them.
(This post was last modified: 06-05-2021 07:17 PM by texoma.)
06-05-2021 07:06 PM
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SoCalBobcat78 Offline
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Post: #46
RE: What happens in 2024?
(06-05-2021 06:57 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Pac 12 perspective from San Jose Mercury News Hotline Mailbag: https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/06/04/h...ntraction/

Jon Wilner covers the Pac-12 Conference as well as anyone on the west coast. Pac-12 expansion will never happen without Texas. OU by themselves does not make sense, for either OU or the Pac-12.

Wilner: "To make expansion worthwhile, the additions must create more media-related revenue for the continuing members than they would receive otherwise. It’s not about increasing the size of the pie; it’s about increasing the size of the slices.
Based on recent media rights deals in other leagues and sports, we already know the Pac-12’s next contract cycle will assuredly increase the size of the pie and the individual slices.
Would a San Diego State, UNLV or Boise State bring the value necessary to make the revenue slices even larger than they would be without them? We’re skeptical. Deeply skeptical.
There are only two schools that make expansion worthwhile financially: Texas and Oklahoma."

As Wedge noted in a earlier post, the only two teams out there that move the needle for the Pac-12 would be OU or UT.
06-05-2021 07:45 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #47
RE: What happens in 2024?
Do we know how the Big 12 allocates the revenue from its media contracts? Specifically, does anybody know how much money Oklahoma receives for all of its games including its private network, and how much Texas gets for theirs (including the LHN)? I'm assuming the league doesn't give every school an equal share.

If we are comparing the B1G or SEC payout to the average payout to Big 12 members, we may be overestimating the incentive the Sooners would have to switch.
Texas has no need to go anywhere, at least as long as OU stays put (and maybe even if they don't). If OU decides to stay, there's no reason for anybody to move.
06-05-2021 07:55 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #48
RE: What happens in 2024?
The irony of the 2010 PAC 16 gambit was that TAMU didn’t want to go but Baylor would have been more than happy to take their place.

Baylor or Kansas in lieu of TAMU could have salvaged the deal but the PAC 10 would have rather donated both their kidneys than accept Baylor.
06-05-2021 07:57 PM
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Realigned Offline
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Post: #49
RE: What happens in 2024?
Will the value of adding two teams really increase the payout per team in the Big 10 or SEC. By 2024, the Big 10 will probably be pulling in close to $70M per team. That means two new teams will have to increase the value of a ten year media contract by over $1.4B.
06-05-2021 08:50 PM
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #50
RE: What happens in 2024?
(06-05-2021 08:50 PM)Realigned Wrote:  Will the value of adding two teams really increase the payout per team in the Big 10 or SEC. By 2024, the Big 10 will probably be pulling in close to $70M per team. That means two new teams will have to increase the value of a ten year media contract by over $1.4B.

If the two teams are Texas and Oklahoma, yes. If they are one of the two and a tagalong, then it's questionable. And the Big 10/SEC media partners have incentive to get UT/OU to the Big 10/SEC because the alternative is paying the rest of the Big 12. If I were FOX/ESPN, I'll do what it takes. I'd rather Texas play Alabama and LSU than Kansas State and Texas Tech.
06-05-2021 09:01 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #51
RE: What happens in 2024?
If Oklahoma wants to move but Texas says no the the SEC, maybe ESPN steers Oklahoma and a plus one to the SEC and work a Big 12 Olympic/fb Indy ND type deal for Texas.
06-05-2021 09:17 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #52
RE: What happens in 2024?
(06-05-2021 09:17 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If Oklahoma wants to move but Texas says no the the SEC, maybe ESPN steers Oklahoma and a plus one to the SEC and work a Big 12 Olympic/fb Indy ND type deal for Texas.

It's not an issue with Texas and Tech because of the market size for T2 games and the advertising premium for access to 28 million 3 times a Saturday for most of the season. It is a push for OU/OSU but it's so close I could still see it being done for the branding and if the network needed or wanted them at pro rata for the SEC. Same situation for UT and the B1G. I just don't see Texas making that decision, ever. And for OU and Kansas you are pocket change away from 1.4 billion in value.
06-05-2021 09:47 PM
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clpp01 Offline
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Post: #53
RE: What happens in 2024?
(06-04-2021 06:00 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(06-04-2021 04:16 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-04-2021 12:39 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  I don't think the Pac-12 expands anytime soon (unless they can pry away Big 12 members).

Expanding offers no profit to the existing members unless one or more of the new members moves the needle in football as much as OU or UT. Arguably the last expansion was a wash at best (i.e., the Pac-10 teams would be making at least as much per school today if they hadn't added CU and UU), so why add more unless you're getting a whale like the Sooners or Horns.

I always wonder if the 12 team requirement for CCG wasn't in place, would the Pac 12 have expanded at all?
Yes, the Pac-10 had coveted Colorado for years and years. The moment that Colorado told then they wanted in was the moment that expansion was guaranteed to happen in the Pac regardless of anything else. If any of the Texas expansion plans fell through they would fall back to Utah and even if for some reason Utah wasn't available they would hold pat as an 11 team conference.
06-06-2021 12:14 AM
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Post: #54
RE: What happens in 2024?
(06-05-2021 07:04 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  
(06-05-2021 12:02 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(06-05-2021 11:45 AM)bluesox Wrote:  I’d guess 1 of these 3 things happen :

OU and KU to the big 10
OU and Ok state to the SEC or PAC 12 with 4-8 others if moving to the pac
Big 12 adds 2 from BYU, Col state and Cincinnati

If OU/KU go B1G that probably pushes Texas to the PAC which is easier since Oklahoma State doesn't have to be part of the deal.

UT/TT/TCU/SMU to the PAC. They go to 16 to match the B1G who is now 16.

XII then reloads with BYU, Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, Tulane to join Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Iowa St, Baylor, WVU to still be a P5 conference, albeit with a smaller 15 mill per school deal.

05-stirthepot
Memphis didn’t even make the Big 12’s final list a few years ago. UCF would be added before half the schools you mentioned.

Yeah, swap Tulane for UCF ... and UCF isn't last in of the group, either.
06-06-2021 02:00 AM
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BruceMcF Online
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Post: #55
RE: What happens in 2024?
(06-05-2021 09:01 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(06-05-2021 08:50 PM)Realigned Wrote:  Will the value of adding two teams really increase the payout per team in the Big 10 or SEC. By 2024, the Big 10 will probably be pulling in close to $70M per team. That means two new teams will have to increase the value of a ten year media contract by over $1.4B.

If the two teams are Texas and Oklahoma, yes. If they are one of the two and a tagalong, then it's questionable. ...

On the media front, OU and KS as a tagalong might be marginal, but it's conceivable due to Kansas basketball games on the BTN. The challenge will be how much sway the academic snobs at the School Up North and Whiskey have on their respective school Presidents. If those two Presidents were to strongly back the move, it becomes a lot easier for OU to get in.
06-06-2021 02:08 AM
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Big Frog II Offline
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Post: #56
RE: What happens in 2024?
With the CFP expanding, look for no changes.
06-06-2021 07:55 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #57
RE: What happens in 2024?
Someone has to make Oklahoma whole. Right now, they have a lesser position to Texas financially. I don't see them tolerating that.

I have a question though...

Would Texas be willing to share their network with Oklahoma?

Instead of the Longhorn Network, call it the Red River Network and split the revenue? Texas might come out of that with less than $15 million annually, but they might win the war with saving their favored conference. Would ESPN go along with it?
06-06-2021 09:37 PM
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Todor Offline
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Post: #58
RE: What happens in 2024?
And when will it reach a tipping point where ESPN has less say, and schools and their own apps/streams/networks have more say. That's the day I'm waiting for. Then schools can do what works for them, and not be manipulated by ESPN desire for their own profit to the detriment of rivalries and conferences. I'm dreaming again...
(This post was last modified: 06-07-2021 06:30 AM by Todor.)
06-07-2021 06:29 AM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #59
RE: What happens in 2024?
(06-06-2021 09:37 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Someone has to make Oklahoma whole. Right now, they have a lesser position to Texas financially. I don't see them tolerating that.

Why? 29 million people live in Texas. 4 million people live in Oklahoma. I'm pretty sure the folks in the OU athletic department understand that.
06-07-2021 10:00 AM
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Post: #60
RE: What happens in 2024?
(06-06-2021 09:37 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I have a question though...

Would Texas be willing to share their network with Oklahoma?

Instead of the Longhorn Network, call it the Red River Network and split the revenue? Texas might come out of that with less than $15 million annually, but they might win the war with saving their favored conference. Would ESPN go along with it?

No. UTexas doesn't work that way, which is why Texas A&M is glad it left and is not looking back.
06-07-2021 10:10 AM
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