Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 8-11]
Author Message
Crayton Online
Special Teams
*

Posts: 751
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 67
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #21
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 4-7]
Looks like I'll have to write a 12-team playoff model.
(06-09-2021 04:34 PM)Thiefery Wrote:  #1 Texas (7-0, 4-0 Big 12) (254-117)

We're Back!! #AllGasNoBrakes #HookEm

At this point the #1 Longhorns have already beaten the #2 (#19 Oklahoma, 28-23) and #3 (OK State, 59-17) teams in their conference back-to-back, preceded by a 50-10 whooping of conference-mate TCU. Texas is clicking and the road looks clear ahead. Even with 1 loss, they clock-in at 89% favorites to go to the Playoff.

Big 12 Championship Odds / Appearances (all rounded down)
72/97 Texas
15/48 Oklahoma
8/36 OK State
1/9 Baylor
1/7 Iowa St
0/0 anyone else
06-10-2021 09:23 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Crayton Online
Special Teams
*

Posts: 751
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 67
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #22
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 4-7]
The playoff picture still has undefeated Power teams guaranteed to make the playoff (with the exception of 13-0 Missouri making the playoff in only 98% of simulations).

After that, here are the categories:
Guarantees > 90%
99% 1-loss CHAMP Big Ten (42%)
98% (11-1) Notre Dame (24%)
97% 1-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (25%)
91% 1-loss at large Pac 12 (4%)
Contenders > 50%
89% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (30%)
80% 1-loss at large Big Ten (42%)
80% 1-loss at large Big 12 (13%)
75% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (60%)
68% 1-loss CHAMP ACC (56%)
Need Help > 25%
46% 2-loss CHAMP Big Ten (26%)
39% 0-loss CHAMP MAC (38%)
31% 1-loss at large ACC (9%)
29% (11-1) BYU (26%)
Long Shots < 25%
14% 2-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (37%)
13% 2-loss at large Big Ten (121%)
12% (10-2) Notre Dame (41%)
7% 2-loss at large Pac 12 (21%)
5% 2-loss CHAMP Big 12 (21%)
3% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (30%)
3% 1-loss at large SEC (11%)
3% 2-loss CHAMP ACC (68%)
1% 2-loss at large Big 12 (39%)
0% 2-loss at large ACC (108%)
0% 2-loss at large SEC (175%)
0% 3-loss CHAMP Big Ten (5%)
0% 1-loss at large MWC (16%)
0% 2-loss CHAMP MWC (43%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (14%)
0% 1-loss CHAMP CUSA (39%)

Basically, 1-loss Power teams have a good shot at the playoffs. After simming through the next 4 weeks, I'll break this down by teams. A 1-loss SEC Champ still seems low. Here is a more detailed breakdown:
84% (11-1)+W Georgia (22%)
77% (11-1)+W Alabama (32%)
63% (11-1)+W LSU (1%)
3% (11-1)+W Missouri (3%)
The Alabama numbers may be depressed by that head-to-head Miami loss we talked about earlier, but the Missouri numbers really drive the average down.
(This post was last modified: 06-14-2021 12:04 AM by Crayton.)
06-14-2021 12:03 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Crayton Online
Special Teams
*

Posts: 751
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 67
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #23
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 4-7]
Here are the numbers for the new 6+6 Playoff. /10,000 simulations
B=Bye,C=Champ in First Round, A=At Large
H=Home Game in First Round, X=Champ outside playoff
Code:
B:2675 C:542 A:3897 H:1675 X:33 Georgia
B:3558 C:1030 A:2498 H:1261 X:33 Alabama
B:186 C:36 A:1514 H:324 X:0 LSU
B:281 C:173 A:759 H:294 X:46 Missouri
B:178 C:332 A:18 H:40 X:137 Florida
B:106 C:348 A:21 H:43 X:276 Auburn
B:0 C:2 A:60 H:6 X:12 Ole Miss
B:0 C:4 A:7 H:4 X:8 South Carolina
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:3 Mississippi St

B:3077 C:1682 A:1491 H:1092 X:214 Clemson
B:1604 C:1313 A:1633 H:1287 X:688 North Carolina
B:672 C:252 A:2033 H:920 X:41 Wake Forest
B:43 C:55 A:59 H:19 X:23 Pittsburgh
B:0 C:4 A:30 H:6 X:0 Louisville
B:0 C:4 A:0 H:0 X:35 Virginia Tech
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:1092 Florida St
B:1509 C:2309 A:1855 H:1503 X:2382 Miami (error?)

B:4229 C:96 A:5116 H:4613 X:0 Ohio St
B:1635 C:94 A:6004 H:4010 X:0 Wisconsin
B:1350 C:80 A:6067 H:4798 X:0 Michigan
B:1754 C:404 A:3015 H:1535 X:36 Iowa
B:41 C:25 A:527 H:156 X:7 Penn State
B:124 C:97 A:282 H:57 X:10 Minnesota
B:0 C:9 A:150 H:34 X:0 Indiana
B:0 C:3 A:4 H:2 X:4 Northwestern
B:0 C:0 A:3 H:3 X:0 Purdue
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:1 Michigan St
B:0 C:0 A:1 H:0 X:0 Illinois

B:6667 C:532 A:2329 H:2187 X:33 Texas
B:622 C:220 A:1887 H:851 X:26 OK State
B:530 C:653 A:174 H:123 X:332 Oklahoma
B:112 C:57 A:341 H:75 X:11 Baylor
B:118 C:38 A:243 H:79 X:11 Iowa St
B:0 C:9 A:24 H:0 X:5 TCU
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:1 West Virginia
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:7 Kansas

B:4432 C:1222 A:2357 H:2251 X:126 USC
B:959 C:1022 A:680 H:544 X:695 Oregon
B:307 C:295 A:73 H:87 X:109 Arizona St
B:105 C:255 A:10 H:34 X:461 Washington
B:0 C:0 A:125 H:46 X:0 Colorado
B:0 C:0 A:21 H:0 X:0 Utah
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:5 Stanford
B:0 C:1 A:0 H:0 X:3 Washington St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:3 Arizona

B:0 C:0 A:7468 H:6155 X:0 Notre Dame
B:0 C:0 A:3831 H:2481 X:0 BYU

B:158 C:1206 A:0 H:107 X:2698 Memphis
B:26 C:371 A:0 H:4 X:3615 Cincinnati
B:0 C:28 A:0 H:0 X:1317 Tulane
B:0 C:7 A:0 H:0 X:278 Tulsa
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:224 SMU
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:48 Navy
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:14 UCF
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:4 East Carolina
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:3 USF

B:147 C:2542 A:0 H:253 X:4539 Boise St
B:32 C:179 A:1000 H:173 X:200 Air Force
B:0 C:12 A:0 H:0 X:1052 San Diego St
B:5 C:47 A:0 H:0 X:771 Nevada
B:0 C:9 A:0 H:0 X:146 Colorado St
B:0 C:6 A:0 H:0 X:116 Wyoming
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:92 Hawaii
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:57 San Jose St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:30 UNLV
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:18 Fresno St

B:110 C:1697 A:0 H:45 X:4848 UAB
B:0 C:44 A:0 H:0 X:2558 Marshall
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:326 WKU
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:306 La Tech
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:36 Rice
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:26 FAU
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:23 Charlotte
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:22 Southern Miss
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:3 UTEP
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:1 UTSA

B:2648 C:2626 A:196 H:823 X:1675 Ohio
B:0 C:84 A:0 H:0 X:1482 Western Michigan
B:0 C:73 A:10 H:0 X:200 Buffalo
B:0 C:14 A:0 H:0 X:758 Toledo
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:247 Eastern Michigan
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:159 Ball St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:15 Miami(OH)
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:15 Northern Illinois
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:4 Bowling Green

B:0 C:26 A:0 H:0 X:5400 Louisiana
B:0 C:15 A:0 H:0 X:2679 Coastal Carolina
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:1531 App St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:133 Troy
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:101 Arkansas St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:64 La Monroe
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:48 Georgia St
B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:3 Texas St
(This post was last modified: 06-14-2021 12:05 AM by Crayton.)
06-14-2021 12:04 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Crayton Online
Special Teams
*

Posts: 751
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 67
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #24
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 4-7]
Here are weeks 8-11. Ctrl+F to search for specific teams. I'll be simming individual weeks from here on out.

Code:
WEEK 8
14-33 // #7 USC (6-0) @ #6 Notre Dame (5-1)
21-24 // #12 LSU (6-1) @ #29 Ole Miss (4-2)
17-21 // #16 Wake Forest (6-0) @ #68 Army (3-3)
35-45 // #20 OK State (5-1) @ #28 Iowa St (5-1)
19-17 // #5 Clemson (5-1) @ #34 Pittsburgh (5-1)
34-17 // #3 Ohio St (6-0) @ #35 Indiana (4-2)
14-16 // #36 Cincinnati (4-2) @ #72 Navy (3-3)
14-34 // #38 Colorado (4-2) @ #87 California (2-4)
29-28 // #55 West Virginia (3-3) @ #41 TCU (4-2)
21-37 // #43 Western Michigan (5-2) @ #54 Toledo (5-2)
24-42 // #46 Northwestern (4-2) @ #8 Michigan (6-0)
35-17 // #9 Wisconsin (5-1) @ #49 Purdue (3-3)
17-14 // #14 BYU (6-1) @ #57 Washington St (4-3)
13-14 // #60 Illinois (4-3) @ #24 Penn State (4-2)
36-14 // #39 South Carolina (5-2) @ #61 Texas A&M (2-5)
19-14 // #22 Oregon (5-1) @ #62 UCLA (3-4)
9-40 // #63 NC State (3-3) @ #13 Miami (5-1)
17-52 // #64 Maryland (3-3) @ #27 Minnesota (4-2)
17-41 // #65 San Diego St (4-2) @ #31 Air Force (6-1)
21-41 // #69 Boston College (3-3) @ #42 Louisville (4-2)
18-17 // #58 Tulane (3-3) @ #71 SMU (4-2)
20-17 // #56 Coastal Carolina (4-1) @ #73 App St (3-3)
26-17 // #37 Washington (4-2) @ #75 Arizona (3-3)
17-68 // #76 Tennessee (3-4) @ #2 Alabama (6-1)
28-31 // #77 Kansas St (2-4) @ #107 Texas Tech (2-5)
13-20 // #78 Syracuse (3-4) @ #52 Virginia Tech (3-3)
14-46 // #80 Liberty (5-2) @ #122 North Texas (1-5)
47-14 // #44 Utah (3-3) @ #89 Oregon St (2-4)
21-24 // #92 Georgia Tech (2-4) @ #66 Virginia (3-4)
31-34 // #93 Miami(OH) (3-4) @ #67 Ball St (4-3)
6-44 // #97 Temple (3-3) @ #113 USF (1-5)
26-23 // #30 Memphis (6-1) @ #98 UCF (1-5)
31-28 // #59 Nevada (4-2) @ #99 Fresno St (3-4)
37-17 // #95 San Jose St (3-4) @ #100 UNLV (3-3)
28-32 // #101 Northern Illinois (3-4) @ #112 Central Michigan (2-5)
33-30 // #32 Mississippi St (3-3) @ #103 Vanderbilt (2-5)
46-3 // #47 Louisiana (4-2) @ #104 Arkansas St (2-4)
80-7 // #19 Oklahoma (5-2) @ #105 Kansas (2-4)
31-28 // #110 South Alabama (3-3) @ #106 La Monroe (3-3)
28-31 // #108 Rice (2-4) @ #33 UAB (6-1)
38-21 // #83 Eastern Michigan (4-3) @ #109 Bowling Green (4-3)
27-34 // #111 FAU (2-4) @ #114 Charlotte (3-3)
26-24 // #74 Colorado St (4-2) @ #116 Utah St (1-5)
21-45 // #118 Kent St (1-6) @ #21 Ohio (7-0)
23-30 // #119 New Mexico (2-5) @ #70 Wyoming (4-2)
13-16 // #120 UTSA (2-5) @ #84 La Tech (4-2)
28-39 // #121 East Carolina (1-5) @ #88 Houston (3-3)
17-55 // #124 New Mexico St (2-5) @ #85 Hawaii (4-3)
17-27 // #125 Texas St (1-5) @ #81 Georgia St (3-3)
66-7 // #117 Middle Tennessee (2-4) @ #126 UConn (2-6)
49-17 // #40 Buffalo (6-1) @ #127 Akron (1-6)
17-32 // #128 UMass (0-6) @ #50 Florida St (3-3)
29-17 // #96 WKU (3-3) @ #130 FIU (0-6)
21-28 // #0 FCS (0-8) @ #45 Arkansas (3-4)

WEEK 9
24-28 // #9 North Carolina (6-1) @ #4 Notre Dame (6-1)
32-31 // #56 Virginia (4-4) @ #11 BYU (7-1)
17-26 // #13 Iowa (6-1) @ #8 Wisconsin (6-1)
33-17 // #5 Georgia (6-1) @ #16 Florida (5-2)
17-33 // #16 Florida (5-2) @ #5 Georgia (6-1)
17-18 // #22 Penn State (5-2) @ #1 Ohio St (7-0)
24-42 // #23 Iowa St (6-1) @ #44 West Virginia (4-3)
21-38 // #25 Minnesota (5-2) @ #58 Northwestern (4-3)
10-31 // #28 Ole Miss (5-2) @ #19 Auburn (5-2)
31-28 // #3 Texas (7-0) @ #32 Baylor (6-1)
21-31 // #36 Washington (5-2) @ #55 Stanford (3-4)
36-24 // #67 UCLA (3-5) @ #38 Utah (4-3)
39-35 // #10 Miami (6-1) @ #39 Pittsburgh (5-2)
26-24 // #125 Texas St (1-6) @ #41 Louisiana (5-2)
20-42 // #48 Florida St (4-3) @ #6 Clemson (6-1)
37-14 // #46 Cincinnati (4-3) @ #49 Tulane (4-3)
21-40 // #53 Colorado (4-3) @ #18 Oregon (6-1)
13-14 // #54 Navy (4-3) @ #60 Tulsa (4-3)
21-32 // #62 Purdue (3-4) @ #75 Nebraska (3-5)
34-31 // #24 Boise St (5-2) @ #63 Colorado St (5-2)
13-16 // #64 Washington St (4-4) @ #31 Arizona St (5-2)
27-32 // #69 Georgia St (4-3) @ #116 Ga Southern (2-5)
43-17 // #37 Louisville (5-2) @ #70 NC State (3-4)
31-28 // #40 Indiana (4-3) @ #71 Maryland (3-4)
28-47 // #74 SMU (4-3) @ #85 Houston (4-3)
17-36 // #77 Arizona (3-4) @ #12 USC (6-1)
17-28 // #79 Hawaii (5-3) @ #120 Utah St (1-6)
23-30 // #80 Kentucky (2-5) @ #34 Mississippi St (4-3)
28-27 // #7 Michigan (7-0) @ #84 Michigan St (3-4)
19-16 // #81 Boston College (3-4) @ #86 Syracuse (3-5)
31-14 // #51 TCU (4-3) @ #88 Kansas St (2-5)
42-28 // #65 Wyoming (5-2) @ #89 San Jose St (4-4)
24-47 // #90 Duke (3-4) @ #21 Wake Forest (6-1)
21-32 // #93 Southern Miss (4-3) @ #114 Middle Tennessee (3-4)
28-35 // #94 Oregon St (2-5) @ #72 California (3-4)
31-28 // #42 Virginia Tech (4-3) @ #95 Georgia Tech (2-5)
24-53 // #96 Texas Tech (3-5) @ #17 Oklahoma (6-2)
20-21 // #98 Rutgers (2-5) @ #66 Illinois (4-4)
24-27 // #99 Charlotte (4-3) @ #92 WKU (4-3)
28-35 // #100 USF (2-5) @ #122 East Carolina (1-6)
48-10 // #109 Arkansas St (2-5) @ #101 South Alabama (4-3)
29-13 // #15 Missouri (7-0) @ #102 Vanderbilt (2-6)
3-61 // #103 UNLV (3-4) @ #52 Nevada (5-2)
21-52 // #105 Fresno St (3-5) @ #73 San Diego St (4-3)
17-20 // #106 UCF (1-6) @ #107 Temple (3-4)
7-56 // #110 La Monroe (3-4) @ #82 App St (3-4)
21-28 // #111 Kansas (2-5) @ #29 OK State (5-2)
21-34 // #113 North Texas (2-5) @ #112 Rice (2-5)
20-38 // #115 Bowling Green (4-4) @ #35 Buffalo (7-1)
24-17 // #68 La Tech (5-2) @ #123 Old Dominion (2-5)
31-34 // #127 UTEP (1-6) @ #117 FAU (2-5)
28-57 // #129 UMass (0-7) @ #87 Liberty (5-3)
21-24 // #130 FIU (0-7) @ #47 Marshall (6-1)

WEEK 10
21-24 // #10 USC (7-1) @ #24 Arizona St (6-2)
3-57 // #11 Missouri (8-0) @ #3 Georgia (7-1)
35-28 // #94 Miami(OH) (3-5) @ #13 Ohio (8-0)
7-22 // #18 Wake Forest (7-1) @ #12 North Carolina (6-2)
21-32 // #19 LSU (6-2) @ #5 Alabama (7-1)
17-27 // #25 Mississippi St (5-3) @ #58 Arkansas (4-4)
24-27 // #26 Penn State (5-3) @ #77 Maryland (3-5)
32-31 // #85 SMU (4-4) @ #29 Memphis (7-1)
17-13 // #7 Clemson (7-1) @ #30 Louisville (6-2)
23-16 // #22 Florida (5-3) @ #31 South Carolina (6-2)
28-59 // #34 Baylor (6-2) @ #46 TCU (5-3)
17-20 // #36 Indiana (5-3) @ #8 Michigan (8-0)
19-16 // #28 OK State (6-2) @ #37 West Virginia (5-3)
24-21 // #2 Texas (8-0) @ #40 Iowa St (6-2)
17-14 // #17 Iowa (6-2) @ #44 Northwestern (5-3)
39-31 // #14 Oregon (7-1) @ #47 Washington (5-3)
31-20 // #91 San Jose St (4-5) @ #48 Nevada (6-2)
28-37 // #51 Utah (4-4) @ #45 Stanford (4-4)
24-31 // #52 Army (4-3) @ #23 Air Force (7-1)
31-24 // #23 Air Force (7-1) @ #52 Army (4-3)
14-17 // #53 Tulsa (5-3) @ #43 Cincinnati (5-3)
17-37 // #56 Illinois (5-4) @ #35 Minnesota (5-3)
20-17 // #99 Oregon St (2-6) @ #61 Colorado (4-4)
13-16 // #64 San Diego St (5-3) @ #88 Hawaii (5-4)
10-22 // #66 Navy (4-4) @ #4 Notre Dame (7-1)
21-14 // #1 Ohio St (8-0) @ #67 Nebraska (4-5)
14-33 // #68 Colorado St (5-3) @ #59 Wyoming (6-2)
14-55 // #69 La Tech (6-2) @ #27 UAB (7-1)
52-17 // #38 Virginia Tech (5-3) @ #70 Boston College (4-4)
24-17 // #84 Michigan St (3-5) @ #72 Purdue (3-5)
14-57 // #74 Eastern Michigan (5-3) @ #49 Toledo (6-2)
14-32 // #76 NC State (3-5) @ #54 Florida St (4-4)
13-27 // #79 Georgia St (4-4) @ #63 Louisiana (5-3)
36-21 // #65 California (4-4) @ #80 Arizona (3-5)
10-7 // #15 Auburn (6-2) @ #81 Texas A&M (2-6)
13-16 // #82 Liberty (6-3) @ #32 Ole Miss (5-3)
21-14 // #78 Tennessee (3-5) @ #86 Kentucky (2-6)
50-14 // #41 Pittsburgh (5-3) @ #89 Duke (3-5)
17-18 // #90 Kansas St (2-6) @ #111 Kansas (2-6)
20-47 // #93 Temple (4-4) @ #117 East Carolina (2-6)
13-43 // #97 Georgia Tech (2-6) @ #9 Miami (7-1)
31-27 // #75 App St (4-4) @ #98 Arkansas St (3-5)
17-38 // #100 Rice (3-5) @ #104 Charlotte (4-4)
3-44 // #101 Middle Tennessee (4-4) @ #83 WKU (5-3)
28-21 // #6 Wisconsin (7-1) @ #103 Rutgers (2-6)
17-19 // #105 Central Michigan (3-5) @ #60 Western Michigan (5-3)
12-16 // #106 Northern Illinois (3-5) @ #122 Kent St (1-7)
14-26 // #107 South Alabama (4-4) @ #92 Troy (4-4)
60-21 // #21 Boise St (6-2) @ #108 Fresno St (3-6)
21-20 // #42 Coastal Carolina (6-1) @ #109 Ga Southern (3-5)
18-17 // #73 Houston (5-3) @ #112 USF (2-6)
43-20 // #50 Marshall (7-1) @ #116 FAU (3-5)
7-10 // #118 North Texas (2-6) @ #96 Southern Miss (4-4)
34-24 // #62 Tulane (4-4) @ #119 UCF (1-7)
40-24 // #110 UNLV (3-5) @ #120 New Mexico (2-6)
32-24 // #115 La Monroe (3-5) @ #123 Texas St (2-6)
21-28 // #124 Old Dominion (2-6) @ #130 FIU (0-8)
31-10 // #113 Utah St (2-6) @ #125 New Mexico St (2-6)
16-9 // #55 Ball St (5-3) @ #126 Akron (1-7)
33-3 // #121 UTSA (2-6) @ #127 UTEP (1-7)
24-17 // #0 FCS (0-10) @ #129 UMass (0-8)
24-34 // #0 FCS (0-10) @ #20 BYU (7-2)

WEEK 11
30-33 // #6 Michigan (9-0) @ #37 Penn State (5-4)
26-20 // #33 South Carolina (6-3) @ #16 Missouri (8-1)
31-28 // #34 TCU (6-3) @ #20 OK State (7-2)
28-64 // #22 Arizona St (7-2) @ #54 Washington (5-4)
0-58 // #28 Minnesota (6-3) @ #13 Iowa (7-2)
23-21 // #9 North Carolina (7-2) @ #32 Pittsburgh (6-3)
26-36 // #39 Mississippi St (5-4) @ #12 Auburn (7-2)
22-21 // #19 UAB (8-1) @ #44 Marshall (8-1)
7-17 // #45 Arkansas (5-4) @ #21 LSU (6-3)
34-30 // #5 Notre Dame (8-1) @ #46 Virginia (5-4)
24-21 // #10 Miami (8-1) @ #47 Florida St (5-4)
32-9 // #14 Oklahoma (7-2) @ #48 Baylor (6-3)
31-44 // #49 West Virginia (5-4) @ #104 Kansas St (2-7)
14-17 // #50 Northwestern (5-4) @ #8 Wisconsin (8-1)
7-35 // #51 Wyoming (7-2) @ #23 Boise St (7-2)
24-31 // #55 Ball St (6-3) @ #117 Northern Illinois (3-6)
7-10 // #56 Louisiana (6-3) @ #90 Troy (5-4)
10-17 // #57 Nevada (6-3) @ #76 San Diego St (5-4)
34-31 // #17 USC (7-2) @ #58 California (5-4)
28-40 // #59 Tulsa (5-4) @ #52 Tulane (5-4)
16-20 // #65 Houston (6-3) @ #102 Temple (4-5)
37-27 // #1 Georgia (8-1) @ #68 Tennessee (4-5)
35-16 // #63 Maryland (4-5) @ #69 Michigan St (4-5)
10-47 // #71 Colorado (4-5) @ #60 UCLA (4-5)
27-29 // #72 WKU (6-3) @ #108 Rice (3-6)
23-20 // #121 UCF (1-8) @ #73 SMU (5-4)
21-17 // #18 Air Force (8-1) @ #74 Colorado St (5-4)
28-35 // #77 Washington St (4-5) @ #11 Oregon (8-1)
21-24 // #78 Purdue (3-6) @ #3 Ohio St (9-0)
31-34 // #80 Boston College (4-5) @ #98 Georgia Tech (2-7)
21-46 // #84 NC State (3-6) @ #24 Wake Forest (7-2)
30-13 // #25 Ohio (8-1) @ #85 Eastern Michigan (5-4)
32-31 // #29 Buffalo (8-1) @ #86 Miami(OH) (4-5)
26-29 // #87 Texas A&M (2-7) @ #27 Ole Miss (6-3)
21-36 // #88 Syracuse (3-6) @ #31 Louisville (6-3)
49-14 // #66 Utah (4-5) @ #89 Arizona (3-6)
30-27 // #38 Stanford (5-4) @ #91 Oregon St (3-6)
28-30 // #93 Duke (3-6) @ #30 Virginia Tech (6-3)
10-28 // #95 Charlotte (5-4) @ #75 La Tech (6-3)
14-31 // #96 Kansas (3-6) @ #2 Texas (9-0)
23-14 // #41 Iowa St (6-3) @ #97 Texas Tech (3-6)
24-3 // #79 Hawaii (6-4) @ #99 UNLV (4-5)
31-14 // #94 Kentucky (2-7) @ #101 Vanderbilt (2-7)
32-31 // #100 Arkansas St (3-6) @ #103 La Monroe (4-5)
20-35 // #105 Rutgers (2-7) @ #43 Indiana (5-4)
28-31 // #106 East Carolina (3-6) @ #40 Memphis (7-2)
10-26 // #109 Utah St (3-6) @ #82 San Jose St (5-5)
14-13 // #114 Kent St (2-7) @ #110 Central Michigan (3-6)
60-10 // #42 Toledo (7-2) @ #111 Bowling Green (4-5)
30-20 // #92 Southern Miss (5-4) @ #112 UTSA (3-6)
10-49 // #115 South Alabama (4-5) @ #67 App St (5-4)
26-23 // #35 Cincinnati (6-3) @ #119 USF (2-7)
17-20 // #122 New Mexico (2-7) @ #113 Fresno St (3-7)
44-14 // #116 Ga Southern (3-6) @ #123 Texas St (2-7)
31-40 // #124 FIU (1-8) @ #107 Middle Tennessee (4-5)
27-24 // #118 FAU (3-6) @ #125 Old Dominion (2-7)
20-46 // #126 New Mexico St (2-7) @ #4 Alabama (8-1)
10-56 // #127 Akron (1-8) @ #53 Western Michigan (6-3)
21-41 // #128 UConn (2-7) @ #7 Clemson (8-1)
17-19 // #129 UTEP (1-8) @ #120 North Texas (2-7)
14-33 // #0 FCS (0-11) @ #15 Florida (6-3)
7-56 // #0 FCS (0-11) @ #62 Army (4-4)
28-32 // #0 FCS (0-11) @ #130 UMass (0-9)

Only 10 Power teams with 1 or fewer losses remain (all P5 conferences have at least 1 team), and up to 8 can finish with 1 or fewer losses (ND, Miami, and OSU can finish with 1 loss while not winning a P5 Championship).

The tables have turned in the G5 with 5 teams ranked from the MW, CUSA, and MAC, and 0 from the AAC and SB.

Big 12
#1 Texas (10-0, 7-0 Big 12) (340-180)
#14 Oklahoma (8-2, 6-1 Big 12) (390-167)
#35 Iowa St (7-3, 4-3 Big 12) (280-245)
#33 OK State (7-3, 4-3 Big 12) (290-256)
#26 TCU (7-3, 4-3 Big 12) (335-267)
#58 West Virginia (5-5, 3-4 Big 12) (281-254)
#50 Baylor (6-4, 3-4 Big 12) (222-282)
#101 Kansas (3-7, 2-5 Big 12) (222-328)
#86 Kansas St (3-7, 1-6 Big 12) (251-265)
#102 Texas Tech (3-7, 1-6 Big 12) (251-293)

Big Ten-East
#2 Ohio St (10-0, 7-0 Big Ten) (309-209)
#10 Michigan (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) (320-223)
#28 Penn State (6-4, 3-4 Big Ten) (254-243)
#76 Michigan St (4-6, 3-4 Big Ten) (241-277)
#37 Indiana (6-4, 3-4 Big Ten) (274-261)
#54 Maryland (5-5, 2-5 Big Ten) (276-235)
#110 Rutgers (2-8, 0-7 Big Ten) (264-278)
Big Ten-West
#5 Wisconsin (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) (252-182)
#12 Iowa (8-2, 6-1 Big Ten) (295-187)
#38 Minnesota (6-4, 4-3 Big Ten) (350-244)
#60 Illinois (5-5, 3-4 Big Ten) (226-229)
#53 Northwestern (5-5, 3-4 Big Ten) (259-227)
#67 Nebraska (4-6, 2-5 Big Ten) (240-276)
#79 Purdue (3-7, 1-6 Big Ten) (237-260)

SEC-East
#3 Georgia (9-1, 7-1 SEC) (306-182)
#32 Missouri (8-2, 4-2 SEC) (266-225)
#24 Florida (7-3, 4-3 SEC) (347-221)
#29 South Carolina (7-3, 4-3 SEC) (308-200)
#73 Tennessee (4-6, 2-5 SEC) (260-343)
#85 Kentucky (3-7, 1-7 SEC) (239-257)
#111 Vanderbilt (2-8, 0-6 SEC) (228-284)
SEC-West
#6 Alabama (9-1, 6-0 SEC) (391-197)
#13 Auburn (8-2, 6-0 SEC) (338-197)
#23 Ole Miss (7-3, 4-2 SEC) (243-246)
#20 LSU (7-3, 4-3 SEC) (257-203)
#45 Mississippi St (5-5, 3-4 SEC) (268-251)
#51 Arkansas (5-5, 2-4 SEC) (247-247)
#98 Texas A&M (2-8, 0-7 SEC) (195-285)

ACC-Atlantic
#8 Clemson (9-1, 7-0 ACC) (372-191)
#19 Wake Forest (8-2, 6-0 ACC) (360-204)
#30 Louisville (7-3, 4-3 ACC) (349-200)
#52 Florida St (5-5, 3-4 ACC) (229-265)
#90 Boston College (4-6, 2-4 ACC) (238-291)
#91 NC State (3-7, 0-6 ACC) (206-299)
#92 Syracuse (3-7, 0-6 ACC) (255-280)
ACC-Coastal
#9 North Carolina (8-2, 6-1 ACC) (336-204)
#7 Miami (9-1, 5-1 ACC) (342-172)
#27 Virginia Tech (7-3, 5-1 ACC) (287-213)
#43 Pittsburgh (6-4, 3-3 ACC) (314-225)
#44 Virginia (5-5, 2-4 ACC) (239-275)
#96 Duke (3-7, 1-5 ACC) (257-328)
#87 Georgia Tech (3-7, 1-7 ACC) (228-307)

Pac-12 North
#11 Oregon (9-1, 7-0 Pac 12) (337-229)
#61 California (5-5, 4-3 Pac 12) (262-256)
#41 Washington (6-4, 4-3 Pac 12) (344-204)
#31 Stanford (6-4, 4-4 Pac 12) (286-254)
#89 Oregon St (3-7, 2-5 Pac 12) (254-296)
#77 Washington St (4-6, 2-5 Pac 12) (226-250)
Pac-12 South
#16 USC (8-2, 7-1 Pac 12) (320-224)
#34 Arizona St (7-3, 5-2 Pac 12) (301-284)
#46 UCLA (5-5, 3-4 Pac 12) (273-228)
#55 Utah (5-5, 3-4 Pac 12) (303-214)
#78 Colorado (4-6, 1-6 Pac 12) (241-293)
#88 Arizona (3-7, 1-6 Pac 12) (214-301)

Independents
#4 Notre Dame (9-1, 9-1 ) (319-200)
#22 BYU (8-2, 8-2 ) (279-187)
#63 Army (5-4, 5-4 ) (285-208)
#84 Liberty (6-4, 6-4 ) (284-282)
#126 UConn (2-8, 2-8 ) (193-317)
#122 New Mexico St (2-8, 2-8 ) (205-370)
#130 UMass (1-9, 1-9 ) (177-368)

CUSA-West
#15 UAB (9-1, 6-0 CUSA) (355-171)
#62 La Tech (7-3, 4-2 CUSA) (254-242)
#83 Southern Miss (6-4, 4-2 CUSA) (231-265)
#100 Rice (4-6, 3-3 CUSA) (246-292)
#121 UTSA (3-7, 2-4 CUSA) (232-246)
#129 UTEP (1-9, 1-5 CUSA) (181-267)
#116 North Texas (3-7, 1-5 CUSA) (214-245)
CUSA-East
#48 Marshall (8-2, 5-1 CUSA) (301-204)
#82 WKU (6-4, 5-1 CUSA) (293-219)
#99 Charlotte (5-5, 3-3 CUSA) (290-274)
#103 Middle Tennessee (5-5, 3-3 CUSA) (279-298)
#114 FAU (4-6, 3-3 CUSA) (193-352)
#125 Old Dominion (2-8, 1-5 CUSA) (197-324)
#128 FIU (1-9, 1-5 CUSA) (196-296)

MW-Mountain
#17 Boise St (8-2, 6-0 MWC) (408-183)
#18 Air Force (9-1, 5-1 MWC) (346-220)
#56 Wyoming (7-3, 4-2 MWC) (301-242)
#72 Colorado St (5-5, 3-3 MWC) (293-272)
#113 Utah St (3-7, 1-5 MWC) (222-337)
#123 New Mexico (2-8, 0-6 MWC) (233-315)
MW-West
#64 San Diego St (6-4, 4-2 MWC) (288-229)
#74 San Jose St (6-5, 4-3 MWC) (333-326)
#57 Nevada (6-4, 3-3 MWC) (354-221)
#69 Hawaii (7-4, 3-3 MWC) (297-220)
#106 UNLV (4-6, 2-4 MWC) (232-313)
#104 Fresno St (4-7, 2-5 MWC) (268-362)

MAC-East
#21 Ohio (9-1, 5-1 MAC) (367-188)
#25 Buffalo (9-1, 5-1 MAC) (351-217)
#95 Miami(OH) (4-6, 3-3 MAC) (257-310)
#117 Bowling Green (4-6, 2-4 MAC) (222-360)
#112 Kent St (3-7, 2-4 MAC) (192-279)
#127 Akron (1-9, 0-6 MAC) (165-368)
MAC-West
#40 Toledo (8-2, 5-1 MAC) (335-216)
#47 Western Michigan (7-3, 4-2 MAC) (285-222)
#105 Northern Illinois (4-6, 3-3 MAC) (236-297)
#70 Ball St (6-4, 3-3 MAC) (303-267)
#94 Eastern Michigan (5-5, 3-3 MAC) (284-273)
#118 Central Michigan (3-7, 1-5 MAC) (196-313)

American
#36 Cincinnati (7-3, 5-1 AAC) (319-185)
#39 Memphis (8-2, 5-1 AAC) (316-220)
#42 Tulane (6-4, 5-1 AAC) (327-196)
#81 SMU (5-5, 3-3 AAC) (242-261)
#66 Tulsa (5-5, 3-3 AAC) (254-229)
#68 Navy (4-5, 3-3 AAC) (196-230)
#75 Houston (6-4, 3-4 AAC) (282-291)
#93 Temple (5-5, 2-4 AAC) (236-324)
#107 East Carolina (3-7, 2-4 AAC) (276-343)
#115 UCF (2-8, 2-5 AAC) (222-340)
#120 USF (2-8, 1-5 AAC) (242-281)

Sun Belt-East
#49 Coastal Carolina (7-2, 5-1 Sun Belt) (275-185)
#80 Troy (6-4, 4-2 Sun Belt) (263-227)
#59 App St (6-4, 4-2 Sun Belt) (338-234)
#71 Georgia St (5-5, 2-4 Sun Belt) (241-261)
#108 Ga Southern (4-6, 2-5 Sun Belt) (260-290)
Sun Belt-West
#65 Louisiana (6-4, 5-2 Sun Belt) (274-191)
#97 Arkansas St (4-6, 3-3 Sun Belt) (261-320)
#109 La Monroe (4-6, 3-4 Sun Belt) (234-291)
#119 South Alabama (4-6, 3-4 Sun Belt) (236-300)
#124 Texas St (2-8, 1-5 Sun Belt) (181-278)
06-15-2021 11:56 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Fighting Muskie Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 6,353
Joined: Sep 2016
Reputation: 284
I Root For: Ohio St, UC,MAC
Location: Top of Mt Rushmore
Post: #25
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 8-11]
Crayton— having you ever gone back and compared your sims to what actually happens? I’m curious what percentage of games have the same outcomes as your sim.
06-16-2021 11:42 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Phlipper33 Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 493
Joined: Oct 2012
Reputation: 27
I Root For: Texas A&M
Location: Arlington, TX
Post: #26
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 8-11]
I'm fairly confident A&M won't go 2-8 to start the season. That's baffling how your sim has them falling so much. Gotta be a QB thing with Mond gone I'm guessing.
06-16-2021 02:40 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Crayton Online
Special Teams
*

Posts: 751
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 67
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #27
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 8-11]
(06-16-2021 02:40 PM)Phlipper33 Wrote:  I'm fairly confident A&M won't go 2-8 to start the season. That's baffling how your sim has them falling so much. Gotta be a QB thing with Mond gone I'm guessing.

I thought the same. UCF as well; 2-8 is a disaster of a season.

An imprecise metric, but here are the ranks that have changed 25 or more spots from preseason. Naturally you'll find the lucky G5 and unlucky P5 teams occupying most of these; still, UCF and A&M (and UAB) stand out.

+72 UAB (9-1)
+43 Ohio (9-1)
+42 La Tech (7-3)
+37 Coastal Carolina (7-2)
+36 Colorado St (5-5)
+34 South Carolina (7-3)
+32 Nevada (6-4)
+26 Marshall (8-2)
+25 Louisville (7-3)
+25 Florida State (5-5)
-26 West Virginia (5-5)
-27 Utah (5-5)
-29 NC State (3-7)
-32 Boston College (4-6)
-36 Purdue (3-7)
-37 Central Michigan (3-7)
-38 Kansas St (3-7)
-40 Kentucky (3-7)
-88 Texas A&M (2-8)
-88 UCF (2-8)

4 of A&M's games (MSU, Alabama, Auburn, and Ole Miss) have been decided by a FG or less; the Aggies have lost all 4. So a bit is their bad luck, but even 6-4 would be unacceptable for the fanbase given the preseason hopes of challenging Alabama for the division crown.
06-16-2021 03:18 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Crayton Online
Special Teams
*

Posts: 751
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 67
I Root For: Florida
Location:
Post: #28
RE: Crayton's 2021 Simulation [Updated with Weeks 8-11]
(06-16-2021 11:42 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Crayton— having you ever gone back and compared your sims to what actually happens? I’m curious what percentage of games have the same outcomes as your sim.
The only comparisons I've done have involved the Playoff/NY6, comparing those predictions across the regular season with other publishers'. Not many calculate the likelihood of teams making the playoff. I blew fivethirtyeight out of the water and performed just below Massey. I incorporated point data only 2 years ago (used just W/L before that) in the hopes of making the model better, but Massey stopped publishing with Washington Post that year.

I was ready to compare against a betting service last year and ESPN started including the chances in their FPI last year, but that data disappeared mid-season and few computers did well because of COVID. I have not yet explored preseason predictions to compare against this year; hopefully FPI data comes back; I'll likely spend less time on this in the Fall as I'm going back to school.

I could probably get a correct W/L % pretty easy from my data (technically I have data back to '08, but those files may now be incompatible). With so many lopsided games, I expect to score ~70%; hopefully higher. Congrove compares their predictions against the spread (they average 75% straight-up W/L and 53% against the spread), but it'd take a lot of work to skim Vegas data.
(This post was last modified: 06-16-2021 04:15 PM by Crayton.)
06-16-2021 03:38 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2021 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2021 MyBB Group.