(05-26-2021 12:55 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote: Another question to ponder is what happens to TCU, SMU, Rice, and Tulane and neither the WAC nor C-USA wanted them for the 1996 season?
Tulsa might have pulled to get the 3 SWC refugees added to the MVC for Olympic sports but that doesn’t solve the football problem. Maybe a few years of independence before eventually getting a C-USA invitation?
One option would have been to raid the Big West: Nevada, Utah State, Idaho, North Texas, Boise State, NMSU. North Texas and NMSU were full members of the Big West, although I doubt TCU and SMU would have wanted to share a conference with them. Louisiana Tech was a Sun Belt member playing as a I-A independent, so depending on how the SWC wanted to set itself up, it could have gone to twelve in football:
West - Nevada*, Utah State*, Idaho*, Boise State*, NMSU, Tulsa
East - TCU, SMU, Rice, Tulane, Louisiana Tech, North Texas
The SWC could have also left North Texas behind and taken Arkansas State, but I would expect that just hastens North Texas moving to the Sun Belt.
The Sun Belt would have been down to eight schools and likely gone ahead and admitted Louisiana-Monroe (Northeast Louisiana) from the Southland and Troy (State) from the Mid-Continent (now Summit), but it still would have been several years before the SBC sponsors football.
Of course if Tulane doesn't join C-USA in 1996, someone likely would have taken their spot to be the sixth football member. East Carolina would have been the likely choice.
With the WAC only having gone to 12 in 1996, the Mountain West never happens.
The Big West fails to reorganize as a bus league after the 2000 season, as five of its members sponsor FBS football (NMSU, Boise State, Idaho, Nevada, Utah State). However, the SWC-mainly TCU and Boise State-is not happy with the lack of competitiveness from NMSU and North Texas. The SWC convinces the Sun Belt to take them as full members, and agrees to schedule a bowl game against the Sun Belt's champion. The Sun Belt sponsors football starting in 2001:
Sun Belt 2001
NMSU, North Texas, Louisiana, ULM, Arkansas State, MTSU (non-football members: WKU, UALR, New Orleans, FIU, South Alabama, Denver)
SWC 2001
Boise State*, Idaho*, Nevada*, Utah State*, TCU, SMU, Rice, Tulsa, Louisiana Tech
WAC 2001
Pacific - Hawaii, SDSU, SJSU, Fresno State, UNLV, Utah
Mountain - BYU, Colorado State, Air Force, New Mexico, UTEP, Wyoming
CUSA 2001
Louisville, Cincinnati, East Carolina, Memphis, UAB, Southern Miss, Houston, Army*
Of course every conference ultimately has to work towards having eight full members. The SWC eventually settles on taking all four affiliates as full members. But now there's trouble in paradise: TCU jumps ship to C-USA.
Then of course, the great realignment of 2005 happens. C-USA loses Louisville, Cincinnati, and South Florida to the Big East, and replaces them with Central Florida, Marshall, and UTEP. The WAC replaces UTEP with TCU. C-USA replaces TCU with SMU. C-USA then straight up adds Rice, Tulane, and Tulsa to get to 12 themselves.
With the SWC basically left for dead (Louisiana Tech, Utah State, Idaho, Nevada, Boise State), the WAC expands to 14 to take Louisiana Tech as a travel partner for TCU, and Boise State for football competitiveness. Nevada is able to beg its way back into the Big West, and Idaho and Utah State join the Sun Belt as full members.
Sun Belt 2005
West - Idaho, Utah State, NMSU, North Texas, Arkansas State, Nevada (fb only)/Denver (non-fb), Little Rock (non-fb)
East - WKU, MTSU, FIU, Troy, Louisiana, ULM, South Alabama (non-fb), New Orleans (non-fb)
WAC 2005
Pacific - SDSU, SJSU, Fresno State, Hawaii, UNLV, Boise State, BYU
Mountain - New Mexico, Colorado State, Air Force, Wyoming, Utah, TCU, Louisiana Tech
The WAC ultimately loses BYU and Utah, and elects to stand pat at 12. They then lose TCU and Louisiana Tech, and opt for Nevada and Utah State. The Sun Belt works out an agreement with the Big Sky to take Idaho, but allow Idaho to play Sun Belt football for four years. South Alabama upgrades to FBS and stays in the Sun Belt.
Sun Belt 2012
West - NMSU, North Texas, Arkansas State, Louisiana, ULM, Idaho (fb only)/Little Rock (non-fb)
East - WKU, MTSU, FIU, FAU, Troy, South Alabama
WAC 2012
Pacific - SDSU, SJSU, Fresno State, Hawaii (fb only), UNLV, Boise State, Nevada
Mountain - New Mexico, Colorado State, Air Force, Wyoming, Utah State, TCU, Louisiana Tech
C-USA then responds to the Big East/American Athletic by expanding to 14 for the 2013 season. The Sun Belt responds with four additions from FCS.
C-USA 2013
West - UTEP, SMU, Rice, Louisiana Tech, Tulsa, North Texas, Tulane
East - Marshall, ECU, MTSU, FAU, UAB, Southern Miss, FIU
Sun Belt 2013
West - NMSU, Arkansas State, Louisiana, ULM, Texas State, Idaho (fb only)/Little Rock (non-fb)
East - WKU, Troy, South Alabama, Georgia State, Georgia Southern, App State
WAC 2013
Pacific - SDSU, SJSU, Fresno State, Hawaii (fb only), UNLV, Nevada
Mountain - New Mexico, Colorado State, Air Force, Wyoming, Utah State, Boise State
In 2014, C-USA loses East Carolina, Tulane, and Tulsa, and replaces them with WKU from the Sun Belt. The Sun Belt replaces WKU with Charlotte.
UMass temporarily assumes UAB's 2015 and 2016 schedule in C-USA, as UMass had planned to decline an invitation for full membership in the MAC. UMass becomes an independent starting with the 2017 season. In 2018, The Sun Belt replaces Idaho with Old Dominion; Idaho downgrades to FCS.
Coastal Carolina remains FCS.
Seattle, Utah Valley, UTRGV, and Chicago State toil on as the Great West; but are joined by Grand Canyon and Cal Baptist who are given waivers by the NCAA.