RE: Which is more likely before 2030 - a WAC FBS or some other "G6" FB conference?
I think the WAC will be FBS by the end of the decade... Or at least what is currently known as the G5 FBS. MWC MAC SUNBELT etc... if the big boys decide a Power 5 (4/6) split from FBS.
Here are a few thoughts and conclusions from the casual conversations I have had with some people who are at least somewhat in the know.
1. Not every school that is in the current WAC configuration will go FBS with the WAC. Dixie St/S Utah could be "traded" to the Big Sky for other schools that are more FBS ready. There are serious questions and doubts as to whether either really have the ability to make that jump...but it is still to early to say for sure. But that move is still at least 5 years away. All of the "Texas 4" +Tarleton have the "potential" to move up in 5-10 years, Though again, there is some serious concern that SFA could get left behind due to lack of institutional resources.
2. At this juncture, the time has passed for any possibility of another D II move up (and or non football school) . Sorry WTAMU, best of luck in the Southland!!! (If you decide to move up) With the addition of the Texas 4...and subtraction of Chicago State...The WAC has finally achieved stability!...Well, almost!
3. Incarnate Word is seriously being vetted.... But probably not to take along to the FBS, but as a last ditch effort to get to 6 (eligible) schools for an AQ bid in football while Tarleton and Dixie are in transition. The problem with UIW going FBS is not money, they have plenty of that, or TV Market, as San Antonio is an attractive market. The problem is that they are a small Catholic School with virtually NO fan support. Even if they build it (facilities) they will NOT come. But there is the old saying "Do unto others...WHAT THEY DID TO YOU!" The "Texas 4" exodus from the Southland can not be misconstrued as a "civil divorce" to put it politely. And the Texas 4 would love to serve a cold dish of revenge to the SLC by putting them in the same precarious situation. That is to say to take away the AQ bid to the conference, since they will only have 5 Football schools if UIW leaves. They could also put pressure on UIW to spend some of Gods money upgrading their facilities like they were SUPPOSED to do when they joined the SLC from the LSC. Also, every school in the BSC said "No"... at least for now...So, yes, UIW is a distinct possibility, but the situation is fluid and until the ink is dry on the contract, nothing is certain. There are a few other things that could really hurt UIW chances. Such as Tarleton/Dixie getting a waiver for AQ Status, UTRGV starting up football quickly (doubtful if even at all) or another FCS (Football school) joining. (but the probability of that is not great from what I am hearing)
4. Seattle and other Non Football schools being pushed out of the conference. I have heard "grumblings" about that but until the WAC actually starts back up as an FBS Football conference, I do not see any forced exodus of any school other than Chicago State, which is all but gone now anyway. (Technically not until next summer, but they will probably use Covid 19 as an excuse to cancel athletics for the upcoming year anyway, so it does not even matter. Seattle and CBU can hopefully land a spot in the WCC or even BWC, which the former is a natural fit for both. Not sure what will happen to UVU or UTRGV as I can not see anybody wanting either. And no one wants the foul stench of GCU. I would much rather have to pay the travel cost to Seattle than to be associated with a for profit online university with absolutely ZERO academic credibility. GCU is far more an embarrassment to the conference than Chicago St.
5. Which way will the wind whirl to get to 8 (Football) schools for FBS status? That is the "
million dollar question". There are far too many equations to consider and right now anything is possible. And they have 5-10 years to figure it out. No one knows what the landscape will be like in that amount of time or which schools from which conference wants to make a jump etc. Whether it be FCS schools or even FBS Schools. But as it currently stands, an FBS WAC would be...
NMSU
HIGH PROBABILITY
Tarleton
Sam Houston
Lamar
Abilene Chistian
MODERATE PROBABILITY
Stephen F Austin
S. Utah
LOW PROBABILITY
Dixie St
If you take NMSU and the "High Probability" schools and 1 of the "moderate probability" schools you have 6 and only need 2 more. I will not speculate on who it might be, but I will say in 5-10 years I am sure you can find 2 schools from either an FCS conference who want to move up or from a G5 conference who is dreadfully unhappy with their situation and or has no better option.
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