(05-21-2021 07:28 AM)schmolik Wrote: The next SEC contract is expected to put them ahead of the Big Ten but that assumes the Big Ten won't get a bump of their own. The SEC was smart to renegotiate before the pandemic and before the NFL contracts were signed. The Big Ten is now negotiating from a position of weakness and if they try to negotiate now they'll be doing so in a year after no Michigan-Ohio State football game and a year the Big Ten embarrassed themselves in the 2021 NCAA men's basketball tournament.
I think in signing now for the expiring CBS rights, the SEC did what was needed for it. Whether it ends up being the right move we shall see. And that need was driven by the B1G, which has been much smarter than the SEC during the booming rights era.
The SEC faced a looming shortfall compared to the B1G, so it needed to do something NOW to keep the members from getting restless. Signing now for a big bump, a bump that will push them past what the B1G is getting now, does that.
But there is a chance this will backfire, as the history of media rights the past 15+ years is that values go up, not down. There is a chance had the SEC waited two more years to negotiate that they could have gotten more.
The B1G, otoh, strikes me as being in great position. Even with the SEC deal kicking in in 2024, the B1G would be competitive with them even if they got no bump at all for their 2023 rights, which seems extremely unlikely.
The SEC was playing catchup, so was kind of forced to move quickly. The B1G is in the catbird's seat, with much less pressure on it. In all likelihood, when the B1G re-ups in 2023, it will get a nice boost that at least equals the SEC, and probably pushes it past them yet again. But even if not, they will still be raking in a ton of money and won't be far behind.