(05-03-2021 07:52 PM)Thiefery Wrote:  Both.. want expanded playoffs AND smaller conferences/divisions.. 12 should be the absolute max, but 10 is the perfect number..9 conf games, 3 OOC games

fight me.

14 is too many, but we can let those conferences suffer with 14.

Now I wouldn't mind some realignment where you basically re-create the Big East and the SEC, Big 10, ACC and Big East all become 10-12 team conferences. Those 3 conferences + WVU = 44 teams, enough for 2 of 12 and 2 of 10. For example:
Big 10-Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, indiana, Purdue, Michigan St., Michigan, Ohio St., Penn St.
SEC-South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi St., LSU, Texas A&M
ACC-FSU, Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, UNC, NC St., Wake Forest, Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech
New Big East-Notre Dame, Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College, Maryland, Rutgers, West Virginia, Missouri, Arkansas (or give Mizzzou and Arkansas to Big 12 and bring in Cincinnati and UConn or one of the Florida twins).

I’m wondering if there are any conferences out there they might try to use expansion to stave off playoff expansion.

(05-04-2021 02:31 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m wondering if there are any conferences out there they might try to use expansion to stave off playoff expansion.

I think it's the opposite. Playoff expansion (particularly one with P5 auto-bids and a G5 slot) provides a pretty significant disincentive for conference expansion. As a result, I believe that there will be much more of a push from conferences for playoff expansion with the benefit that it will create more league stability.

(05-04-2021 02:31 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m wondering if there are any conferences out there they might try to use expansion to stave off playoff expansion.

My thoughts would be would be playoff expansion but conference expansion to maximize tv deals and weakening the G5. Kinda what happened when they invited TCU and Utah. Just throwing this out there but if the PAC 12 expands with Boise State and San Diego State and the Big 12 expands with Memphis, Houston and Cincinnati with a #4 team to be named) could the AAC or MWC have much chance to get into a expanded college playoff?

I think there's to much money not to try and expand the college playoffs. I could see ESPN help setting up a Big 12 network if they can get the longhorn network to have some exclusive content. Maybe a football game a year plus a set number of basketball games with delayed viewing on the Big 12 network? Maybe simulcast with big 12 announcers and longhorn announcers.

(05-04-2021 03:04 PM)46566 Wrote:  

(05-04-2021 02:31 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m wondering if there are any conferences out there they might try to use expansion to stave off playoff expansion.

My thoughts would be would be playoff expansion but conference expansion to maximize tv deals and weakening the G5. Kinda what happened when they invited TCU and Utah. Just throwing this out there but if the PAC 12 expands with Boise State and San Diego State and the Big 12 expands with Memphis, Houston and Cincinnati with a #4 team to be named) could the AAC or MWC have much chance to get into a expanded college playoff?

I think there's to much money not to try and expand the college playoffs. I could see ESPN help setting up a Big 12 network if they can get the longhorn network to have some exclusive content. Maybe a football game a year plus a set number of basketball games with delayed viewing on the Big 12 network? Maybe simulcast with big 12 announcers and longhorn announcers.

I could potentially see the opposite. With the AAC being the G5 bid most years, some teams could start to think that it's an easier path to the playoff than their current conference slate.

(05-04-2021 08:44 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(05-04-2021 07:29 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(05-04-2021 04:16 AM)BleedingPurple Wrote:  While I want to see a G5 make it to the playoffs, autobid isn't the answer. What if the best G5 has two losses and simply isn't in the same league as the other playoff contenders. We don't need an embarrassing game, and face it, that G5 team will be put up against the number one team in the nation. I want it to be an eight team playoff with an autobid to a G5 only if they are undefeated and have achieved this with a predetermined strength of schedule.

And what if the P12 champ is 9-4 or 10-3, after the championship game. That is just as likely than the best G5 being 11-2. As long as champs have an auto bid, there will be years where you get some one who doesn't belong. Bottom line is with 2 at large, you can't say the best 3 to 5 teams are not in the 8.

I agree (and I say that as someone that is far from being a G5 populist).

The main benefit from an expanded playoff is the ability to actually have some objective unambiguous 100% on-the-field spots via auto-bids. There are going to be some years where that causes some "unintended" teams to make it to the playoff... but THAT'S CALLED FREAKING SPORTS. Why the heck are we watching sports if we just want a predictable predetermined outcome where on-the-field achievements can just be thrown out by a bunch of old guys sitting in a conference room in Dallas? I feel like some fans have Stockholm Syndrome with the Russian figure skating judge process that we have always had for college football. It's as if though people forgot what watching sports is all about!

Exactly. We call them upsets---but it simply means what is expected doesnt happen. The possibility that it may play out different than we expect is what makes the actual games interesting.

(05-04-2021 03:04 PM)46566 Wrote:  

(05-04-2021 02:31 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m wondering if there are any conferences out there they might try to use expansion to stave off playoff expansion.

My thoughts would be would be playoff expansion but conference expansion to maximize tv deals and weakening the G5. Kinda what happened when they invited TCU and Utah. Just throwing this out there but if the PAC 12 expands with Boise State and San Diego State and the Big 12 expands with Memphis, Houston and Cincinnati with a #4 team to be named) could the AAC or MWC have much chance to get into a expanded college playoff?

I think there's to much money not to try and expand the college playoffs. I could see ESPN help setting up a Big 12 network if they can get the longhorn network to have some exclusive content. Maybe a football game a year plus a set number of basketball games with delayed viewing on the Big 12 network? Maybe simulcast with big 12 announcers and longhorn announcers.

The P5 conferences do not -- I repeat, do not -- see the G5 as a threat. They weren't specifically attempting to weaken the MWC. The Pac-12 and Big 12 just needed schools and so they picked the best available.

I want 8 FBS conferences along with an 8 team playoff

I’m here for major realignment. Also I wouldn’t hate for the ACC to get hit hard after what they + ESPN did to kill the best college basketball conference ever.

(05-04-2021 04:16 AM)BleedingPurple Wrote:  While I want to see a G5 make it to the playoffs, autobid isn't the answer. What if the best G5 has two losses and simply isn't in the same league as the other playoff contenders. We don't need an embarrassing game, and face it, that G5 team will be put up against the number one team in the nation. I want it to be an eight team playoff with an autobid to a G5 only if they are undefeated and have achieved this with a predetermined strength of schedule.

Any set rule for a win target and a SOS target means that a Go5's chances of getting into the playoff depend upon the strength this year of schools they scheduled sometimes five to ten years ago. Meanwhile a Pac-12 or ACC school that wins the weaker division, losing a majority of their OOC games and flukes a win in the CCG, perhaps due to an untimely injury to the other team's QB, gets in.

In an eight team playoff, a play-in game between the "top two" Go5 schools means that the Go5 school that wins the play-in gets seen by the country before they potentially get slaughtered by the strongest team in the country ... that could well go on to slaughter their semi-final opponent.

In a 12 team playoff, the Go5 school likely isn't seeded to meet the top four teams until the quarterfinal, and if they go there they won a first round game in front of a national audience.

(05-04-2021 02:31 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m wondering if there are any conferences out there they might try to use expansion to stave off playoff expansion.

(05-04-2021 03:04 PM)46566 Wrote:  My thoughts would be would be playoff expansion but conference expansion to maximize tv deals and weakening the G5. Kinda what happened when they invited TCU and Utah. Just throwing this out there but if the PAC 12 expands with Boise State and San Diego State and the Big 12 expands with Memphis, Houston and Cincinnati with a #4 team to be named) could the AAC or MWC have much chance to get into a expanded college playoff?

I think there's to much money not to try and expand the college playoffs. I could see ESPN help setting up a Big 12 network if they can get the longhorn network to have some exclusive content. Maybe a football game a year plus a set number of basketball games with delayed viewing on the Big 12 network? Maybe simulcast with big 12 announcers and longhorn announcers.

A major reason that conference realignment is not a game of Risk is that conferences are not wholly own divisions of corporations, they are membership clubs. They are not going to invite a school in order to "weaken the Go5" ... as has already been noted above the Big XII and Pac-12 did not raid TCU and MWC in a coordinated effort to weaken the MWC, they just needed a school and those were the best available to meet their needs.

(05-04-2021 03:09 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  I could potentially see the opposite. With the AAC being the G5 bid most years, some teams could start to think that it's an easier path to the playoff than their current conference slate.

Now, what would "an easier path" mean? An A5 program relegating itself in pursuit of fame and fortune? A school that has a strong enough program in an A5 that it thinks it can dominate the AAC championship race in enough years for the "path to the playoff" to matter is going to take a big hit in recruiting if they drop from an A5 conference to the AAC ... risking being just another AAC program after the drop, with a big drop in program revenues but still engaged in the coach hiring arms race.

So no, it doesn't mean that. This basically boils down to whether Boise State thinks the AAC's inside track is strong enough to join the AAC as a football-only school.

But it does highlight that if it's an 8 team playoff, a Go5 play-in game would be the more effective way to stabilize things and fend off the inevitable damage done by more conference realignment.

(05-05-2021 12:29 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(05-04-2021 02:31 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m wondering if there are any conferences out there they might try to use expansion to stave off playoff expansion.

(05-04-2021 03:04 PM)46566 Wrote:  My thoughts would be would be playoff expansion but conference expansion to maximize tv deals and weakening the G5. Kinda what happened when they invited TCU and Utah. Just throwing this out there but if the PAC 12 expands with Boise State and San Diego State and the Big 12 expands with Memphis, Houston and Cincinnati with a #4 team to be named) could the AAC or MWC have much chance to get into a expanded college playoff?

I think there's to much money not to try and expand the college playoffs. I could see ESPN help setting up a Big 12 network if they can get the longhorn network to have some exclusive content. Maybe a football game a year plus a set number of basketball games with delayed viewing on the Big 12 network? Maybe simulcast with big 12 announcers and longhorn announcers.

A major reason that conference realignment is not a game of Risk is that conferences are not wholly own divisions of corporations, they are membership clubs. They are not going to invite a school in order to "weaken the Go5" ... as has already been noted above the Big XII and Pac-12 did not raid TCU and MWC in a coordinated effort to weaken the MWC, they just needed a school and those were the best available to meet their needs.

(05-04-2021 03:09 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  I could potentially see the opposite. With the AAC being the G5 bid most years, some teams could start to think that it's an easier path to the playoff than their current conference slate.

Now, what would "an easier path" mean? An A5 program relegating itself in pursuit of fame and fortune? A school that has a strong enough program in an A5 that it thinks it can dominate the AAC championship race in enough years for the "path to the playoff" to matter is going to take a big hit in recruiting if they drop from an A5 conference to the AAC ... risking being just another AAC program after the drop, with a big drop in program revenues but still engaged in the coach hiring arms race.

So no, it doesn't mean that. This basically boils down to whether Boise State thinks the AAC's inside track is strong enough to join the AAC as a football-only school.

But it does highlight that if it's an 8 team playoff, a Go5 play-in game would be the more effective way to stabilize things and fend off the inevitable damage done by more conference realignment.

Maybe, but it depends on the format. The reason the AAC has worse recruiting is partially because they are locked out of the playoff. That would likely normalize if the AAC produced a regular participant. Every move has a ripple effect.

Think about it like this. Let's say the powers that be went nuts and wanted to actually "fix" the whole thing (they don't, and won't, but hypothetical). They could simply change the rules so that the only teams making the playoff are the 10 conference champions, and seeding is based solely on regular season W-L records. Under that scenario, even if it took a decade, you don't think some parity would emerge?

I'm obviously not saying that scenario would ever happen. I'm more saying that any change to the format is going to prompt other changes, some anticipated, some not. I would think that, at the very least, the AAC earning a playoff spot every year would improve their recruiting in relation to every other conference. The same can be said for the PAC-12, who also haven't been a regular participant lately, and for the teams that are right outside the 4-team cut line each year.

The most important goal of any realignment and/or playoff scenario is to ensure that over-achieving G5 programs be denied any hope of competing fairly across the college football spectrum. There's a lot of legacy dead weight out there whose status would be imperiled if others were admitted to the club and allowed to benefit from it.

(05-05-2021 11:37 AM)colohank Wrote:  The most important goal of any realignment and/or playoff scenario is to ensure that over-achieving G5 programs be denied any hope of competing fairly across the college football spectrum. There's a lot of legacy dead weight out there whose status would be imperiled if others were admitted to the club and allowed to benefit from it.

This. What is WVU's recruiting upside vs. Cincinnati when Cindy is no longer ineligible for the playoff?

(05-05-2021 11:37 AM)colohank Wrote:  The most important goal of any realignment and/or playoff scenario is to ensure that over-achieving G5 programs be denied any hope of competing fairly across the college football spectrum. There's a lot of legacy dead weight out there whose status would be imperiled if others were admitted to the club and allowed to benefit from it.

This seems like another Conference Realignment Risk theory. More realistic is P5A says, "I want more", and so does P5B through to P5E, and it turns out the best way to compromise on the most for all five is to take over as much as they can grab, leaving only scraps for everyone else.

If squeezing out the non-power conferences actually has been the over-riding goal of realignment and championship systems over the past twenty years, it's off that with each revision of the BCS, and then with the establishment of the CFP, access by non-power schools increased.

(05-05-2021 07:21 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(05-05-2021 12:29 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(05-04-2021 02:31 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m wondering if there are any conferences out there they might try to use expansion to stave off playoff expansion.

(05-04-2021 03:04 PM)46566 Wrote:  My thoughts would be would be playoff expansion but conference expansion to maximize tv deals and weakening the G5. Kinda what happened when they invited TCU and Utah. Just throwing this out there but if the PAC 12 expands with Boise State and San Diego State and the Big 12 expands with Memphis, Houston and Cincinnati with a #4 team to be named) could the AAC or MWC have much chance to get into a expanded college playoff?

I think there's to much money not to try and expand the college playoffs. I could see ESPN help setting up a Big 12 network if they can get the longhorn network to have some exclusive content. Maybe a football game a year plus a set number of basketball games with delayed viewing on the Big 12 network? Maybe simulcast with big 12 announcers and longhorn announcers.

A major reason that conference realignment is not a game of Risk is that conferences are not wholly own divisions of corporations, they are membership clubs. They are not going to invite a school in order to "weaken the Go5" ... as has already been noted above the Big XII and Pac-12 did not raid TCU and MWC in a coordinated effort to weaken the MWC, they just needed a school and those were the best available to meet their needs.

(05-04-2021 03:09 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  I could potentially see the opposite. With the AAC being the G5 bid most years, some teams could start to think that it's an easier path to the playoff than their current conference slate.

Now, what would "an easier path" mean? An A5 program relegating itself in pursuit of fame and fortune? A school that has a strong enough program in an A5 that it thinks it can dominate the AAC championship race in enough years for the "path to the playoff" to matter is going to take a big hit in recruiting if they drop from an A5 conference to the AAC ... risking being just another AAC program after the drop, with a big drop in program revenues but still engaged in the coach hiring arms race.

So no, it doesn't mean that. This basically boils down to whether Boise State thinks the AAC's inside track is strong enough to join the AAC as a football-only school.

But it does highlight that if it's an 8 team playoff, a Go5 play-in game would be the more effective way to stabilize things and fend off the inevitable damage done by more conference realignment.

Maybe, but it depends on the format. The reason the AAC has worse recruiting is partially because they are locked out of the playoff. That would likely normalize if the AAC produced a regular participant. Every move has a ripple effect.

AAC schools have worse recruiting because they are worse schools. They aren't blue bloods, only average 30,000 a game and don't have the marquee coaching staffs.

Being a P5 by itself has little to do with recruiting. Several G5 programs every year will out recruit some P5s. Recruiting is driven by local/regional prospects, then by the stature of the university. AAC has good local recruiting markets which helps them compared to the MAC and MWC but the ceiling is a Top 40 class at the better schools.

Basketball of course is different as you're only talking 13 players per team, the difference between the Top 50 prospects and the others is vast so you might have a Top 50 prospect from Memphis show up to play for Memphis.

Memphis, Dayton and Gonzaga have to be considered Majors for Basketball. They are consistently top 25 in budget and resources. It shows up in recruiting.

But as with Football there is a clear line. 61 of the 64 largest budget basketball programs are P5 or Big East. The other 15 programs are in an overlap space with about 15 or so mid-major programs (which I refer to as "upper mid-majors) that make up the top 95 programs. That is where your Oregon State, Kansas State, Butler, DePaul and Washington State overlap with your BYU, Loyola Chicago, Cincinnati, Wichita State, Saint Louis, Colorado State and San Diego State type programs. There is some shifting of spots from year to year with coach salaries and such, but it shakes out about the same every year. Your top 60 or so are P5 and Big East with Gonzaga, Memphis and Dayton up there. Sometimes another high mid-major gets into that grouping for a year or two, and some shifting of the Majors up or down a bit, but pretty the same ratios rule.

(05-05-2021 11:55 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(05-05-2021 11:37 AM)colohank Wrote:  The most important goal of any realignment and/or playoff scenario is to ensure that over-achieving G5 programs be denied any hope of competing fairly across the college football spectrum. There's a lot of legacy dead weight out there whose status would be imperiled if others were admitted to the club and allowed to benefit from it.

This. What is WVU's recruiting upside vs. Cincinnati when Cindy is no longer ineligible for the playoff?

Cincinnati I believe already out recruits WVU.

The chicken on the egg argument you are making was much more valid back in 2000. At that time being BCS meant an ABC TV deal and access to major bowl games.

The AAC has an ABC TV deal, realistic access to a major bowl. Plus the investment level over the past 20 has been significant and this explains UC's rise relative to 20 years ago. The same goes for Houston, SMU etc who are all back to their historical norms for football competitiveness following the SWC split.

Relative to the second tier P5 programs they look at like them now and pay like they do as well. Success level is similar too.

(05-07-2021 05:15 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Memphis, Dayton and Gonzaga have to be considered Majors for Basketball. They are consistently top 25 in budget and resources. It shows up in recruiting.

But as with Football there is a clear line. 61 of the 64 largest budget basketball programs are P5 or Big East. The other 15 programs are in an overlap space with about 15 or so mid-major programs (which I refer to as "upper mid-majors) that make up the top 95 programs. That is where your Oregon State, Kansas State, Butler, DePaul and Washington State overlap with your BYU, Loyola Chicago, Cincinnati, Wichita State, Saint Louis, Colorado State and San Diego State type programs. There is some shifting of spots from year to year with coach salaries and such, but it shakes out about the same every year. Your top 60 or so are P5 and Big East with Gonzaga, Memphis and Dayton up there. Sometimes another high mid-major gets into that grouping for a year or two, and some shifting of the Majors up or down a bit, but pretty the same ratios rule.

Better budget mostly means better coaching staff. Basketball has a tiny elite that pays Nick Saban level money but most P5s pay far less than what they do in FB because they don't bring the revenue in from hoops (ticket sales or donors) to justify the high ticket prices.

Its easier then in basketball to pay a good coach within range of the P5. Less fans are required to fill an arena vs. a football stadium, ect. The environment Dayton can create in basketball can't be created in FB.