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Resource: 5-1-6 Playoff using AP Poll from 2014-2020
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ken d Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Resource: 5-1-6 Playoff using AP Poll from 2014-2020
(05-03-2021 08:38 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  Expanding to 5-1-6 does result in additional teams from the ACC and G5 making the playoffs. That isn’t true in the 5-1-2 format...where the additional teams are mainly from the SEC and BIG (as well as the guarantees). Larger playoffs does seem to reduce the beauty contest (fairness) bias.

In addition, the conference championship games are no longer elimination games. The conferences would need to market CCG as regional pride events...best team in the north, south, east, west or plains.

Finally, I still like the CFP committee making the seedings. It looks odd to see Baylor as #4 in 2014...rather than OSU.

How does 5-1-6 produces more G5 teams than 5-1-2? Looks like there's still only one team when you go to 12, with all four additional spots going to P5 schools. Basically, 5-1-6 is just the NY6 teams that the selection committee would have picked, but now some of them that used to just be exhibitions are now playoff games.
05-04-2021 01:30 PM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Resource: 5-1-6 Playoff using AP Poll from 2014-2020
(05-04-2021 01:30 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 08:38 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  Expanding to 5-1-6 does result in additional teams from the ACC and G5 making the playoffs. That isn’t true in the 5-1-2 format...where the additional teams are mainly from the SEC and BIG (as well as the guarantees). Larger playoffs does seem to reduce the beauty contest (fairness) bias.

In addition, the conference championship games are no longer elimination games. The conferences would need to market CCG as regional pride events...best team in the north, south, east, west or plains.

Finally, I still like the CFP committee making the seedings. It looks odd to see Baylor as #4 in 2014...rather than OSU.

How does 5-1-6 produces more G5 teams than 5-1-2? Looks like there's still only one team when you go to 12, with all four additional spots going to P5 schools. Basically, 5-1-6 is just the NY6 teams that the selection committee would have picked, but now some of them that used to just be exhibitions are now playoff games.

Yes - that's essentially how I see it.

It's essentially taking the current 12-team NY6 field (replacing some of the contract bowl slots with at-large playoff slots) and turning it into a playoff.
05-04-2021 02:24 PM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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Post: #23
RE: Resource: 5-1-6 Playoff using AP Poll from 2014-2020
I’m inclined to think that the quarter finals will be 4 NYD bowl games.

The question is, will it just be the same 4 every year (dropping 2) or is it some rotation of the current 6? Maybe they add 2 more and only serve as quarter final sites every other year and are aligned with their traditional conferences the off year?

If the PAC 12 stays down, they might only see a Rose Bowl once in a while if it’s permanently a quarter final site.
05-04-2021 02:52 PM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Resource: 5-1-6 Playoff using AP Poll from 2014-2020
(05-04-2021 09:48 AM)usffan Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 08:38 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  Expanding to 5-1-6 does result in additional teams from the ACC and G5 making the playoffs. That isn’t true in the 5-1-2 format...where the additional teams are mainly from the SEC and BIG (as well as the guarantees). Larger playoffs does seem to reduce the beauty contest (fairness) bias.

In addition, the conference championship games are no longer elimination games. The conferences would need to market CCG as regional pride events...best team in the north, south, east, west or plains.

Finally, I still like the CFP committee making the seedings. It looks odd to see Baylor as #4 in 2014...rather than OSU.

While this is true (and, let's face it, it's already true - both Notre Dame and Clemson this year, hell, Bama made it in 2017 and Ohio State in 2014 without even MAKING their conference championship games!), it almost certainly will give them something to play for in the 12 team version of this, since it's unlikely that a conference game loser would be gifted a top 4 seed (which comes with a bye). Every team in a conference championship game would thus have something legitimate to play for.

USFFan

The easy way to maintain the value of a conference championship, while still adding wild card spots, is to simply do like the NFL and seed conference champions as the higher-seeded home team in the games where wild card teams are involved.
05-04-2021 02:52 PM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Resource: 5-1-6 Playoff using AP Poll from 2014-2020
(05-04-2021 01:30 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 08:38 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  Expanding to 5-1-6 does result in additional teams from the ACC and G5 making the playoffs. That isn’t true in the 5-1-2 format...where the additional teams are mainly from the SEC and BIG (as well as the guarantees). Larger playoffs does seem to reduce the beauty contest (fairness) bias.

In addition, the conference championship games are no longer elimination games. The conferences would need to market CCG as regional pride events...best team in the north, south, east, west or plains.

Finally, I still like the CFP committee making the seedings. It looks odd to see Baylor as #4 in 2014...rather than OSU.

How does 5-1-6 produces more G5 teams than 5-1-2? Looks like there's still only one team when you go to 12, with all four additional spots going to P5 schools. Basically, 5-1-6 is just the NY6 teams that the selection committee would have picked, but now some of them that used to just be exhibitions are now playoff games.

From the modeling in the OP...after the 2020 regular season, both Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina were undefeated and amongst the top finishers.

The OP does the seeding based on the final AP poll...Coastal was the #9 ranked team. IIRC, the CFP ranking had Coastal as the #12 seed. Therefore, the guaranteed P5 slots for conference champs took away Coastal’s NY6 admission.
(This post was last modified: 05-04-2021 03:32 PM by Wahoowa84.)
05-04-2021 03:01 PM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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RE: Resource: 5-1-6 Playoff using AP Poll from 2014-2020
(05-04-2021 02:52 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m inclined to think that the quarter finals will be 4 NYD bowl games.

The question is, will it just be the same 4 every year (dropping 2) or is it some rotation of the current 6? Maybe they add 2 more and only serve as quarter final sites every other year and are aligned with their traditional conferences the off year?

If the PAC 12 stays down, they might only see a Rose Bowl once in a while if it’s permanently a quarter final site.

In a 12-team format, wouldn't it make sense to let all the NY6 bowls be quarter/semi finals on a rotating basis? Each bowl would be a quarter 2 years and a semi 1 on a 3-year rotation?

Example for 2020: (picking winners at random, don't get bent out of shape)

Home-Field Games (home team TBD)
#8 Oklahoma vs #9 Coastal Carolina
#7 Indiana vs. #10 Florida
#6 Cincinnati vs. #11 Georgia
#5 Texas A&M vs. #25 Oregon

Quarter-Finals
#1 Alabama (Sugar) vs. #8 Oklahoma
#2 Clemson (Orange) vs. #7 Indiana
#3 Ohio St (Rose) vs. #6 Cincinnati
#4 Notre Dame (Fiesta)vs. #5 Texas A&M

Semi-Finals
#1 Alabama (Cotton) vs. #6 Cincinnati
#2 Clemson (Peach) vs. #5 Texas A&M

National Championship game venue rotates each year. Is this too easy? It eliminates any NY6 bowl from ever being a garbage bowl again.
(This post was last modified: 05-04-2021 03:30 PM by CoastalJuan.)
05-04-2021 03:02 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Resource: 5-1-6 Playoff using AP Poll from 2014-2020
(05-03-2021 11:17 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 10:14 PM)Crayton Wrote:  2020:
#1 Alabama (Sugar)// #8 Oklahoma vs #9 Coastal Carolina
#2 Clemson (Orange)// #7 Indiana vs. #10 Florida
#3 Ohio St (Rose)// #6 Texas A&M vs. #11 Georgia
#4 Cincinnati (Fiesta)// #5 Notre Dame vs. #25 Oregon

2018:
#1 Alabama (Sugar)// #8 Michigan vs. #9 Washington
#2 Clemson (Orange)// #7 UCF vs. #10 Florida
#3 Oklahoma (Fiesta)// #6 Georgia vs #11 LSU
#4 Ohio State (Rose)// #5 Notre Dame vs. #12 Washington St

Appreciate the work, but it will be a cold day in hell when we see the AAC champ jumping ND simply because the former won a conference.

Remember that ND has a vote equal to an entire conference for the playoff system, which means they have veto power over any proposal as a single school. I need to keep telling people that the P5 absolutely, positively are NOT bothered by ND. The Irish make a lot of money for the system, so the powers that be welcome them with open arms even if fans don’t like it.

Who announced the current CFP system to the world? ND AD Jack Swarbrick.

Who is on the working group for CFP expansion today? ND AD Jack Swarbrick.

ND has legitimate and real structural power here.

Like I mentioned before, your original post is really how a 12-team playoff would look if we go to that format. Once we start trying to seed teams based on whether they won a conference or not, it becomes way too unwieldy if only because you NEED to account for a situation where ND is in the top 4. They are so much more valuable in a top 4 slot to the overall system compared to a G5 champ (and frankly all P5 teams outside of maybe Alabama and Ohio State) that the Irish aren’t going to be disadvantaged.

Frozen Underworld, meet Global Pandemic.

If the playoff had been governed by the committee, the OU-ISU winner would have snagged the 4th spot, not Cincinnati. Under the stated rules in 2020, Clemson and Notre Dame would have known going into their ACC final that the winner would advance to the Quarterfinals while the loser would have a second chance in the first round (likely against a G5/Pac12 champ). Totally fair. The bigger issue you mention is what happens in a year like 2018 where Notre Dame goes 12-0 as an Independent?

In 2018, #1 Alabama played #4 Georgia with the winner advancing straight to the Sugar Bowl. What should #3 Notre Dame do to advance to the Quarterfinals? Arguably they too should face another playoff-contending team. We pair them up against #12 Washington State and the winner of that game also advances to the Quarterfinals, the Rose Bowl.

I honestly mulled over the Notre Dame situation for a whole day (in my spare time). I could see a Notre Dame-specific rule returning where they qualify for the bye. But in the end I decided this was most fair and perhaps even still favors Notre Dame, who gets the #12 seed in those years.

Administrators are going to favor the idea of making 1 fewer team play 14 games before the Quarterfinals. And, Notre Dame gets an easier opponent than Alabama or Georgia (or Texas and Oklahoma, who would face off for a Fiesta Bowl slot). To let Notre Dame skip that 13th game altogether (or 11-1 Alabama in 2017 or Ohio State in 2016) would be unfair.
(This post was last modified: 05-04-2021 04:39 PM by Crayton.)
05-04-2021 04:33 PM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Resource: 5-1-6 Playoff using AP Poll from 2014-2020
(05-04-2021 04:33 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 11:17 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 10:14 PM)Crayton Wrote:  2020:
#1 Alabama (Sugar)// #8 Oklahoma vs #9 Coastal Carolina
#2 Clemson (Orange)// #7 Indiana vs. #10 Florida
#3 Ohio St (Rose)// #6 Texas A&M vs. #11 Georgia
#4 Cincinnati (Fiesta)// #5 Notre Dame vs. #25 Oregon

2018:
#1 Alabama (Sugar)// #8 Michigan vs. #9 Washington
#2 Clemson (Orange)// #7 UCF vs. #10 Florida
#3 Oklahoma (Fiesta)// #6 Georgia vs #11 LSU
#4 Ohio State (Rose)// #5 Notre Dame vs. #12 Washington St

Appreciate the work, but it will be a cold day in hell when we see the AAC champ jumping ND simply because the former won a conference.

Remember that ND has a vote equal to an entire conference for the playoff system, which means they have veto power over any proposal as a single school. I need to keep telling people that the P5 absolutely, positively are NOT bothered by ND. The Irish make a lot of money for the system, so the powers that be welcome them with open arms even if fans don’t like it.

Who announced the current CFP system to the world? ND AD Jack Swarbrick.

Who is on the working group for CFP expansion today? ND AD Jack Swarbrick.

ND has legitimate and real structural power here.

Like I mentioned before, your original post is really how a 12-team playoff would look if we go to that format. Once we start trying to seed teams based on whether they won a conference or not, it becomes way too unwieldy if only because you NEED to account for a situation where ND is in the top 4. They are so much more valuable in a top 4 slot to the overall system compared to a G5 champ (and frankly all P5 teams outside of maybe Alabama and Ohio State) that the Irish aren’t going to be disadvantaged.

Frozen Underworld, meet Global Pandemic.

If the playoff had been governed by the committee, the OU-ISU winner would have snagged the 4th spot, not Cincinnati. Under the stated rules in 2020, Clemson and Notre Dame would have known going into their ACC final that the winner would advance to the Quarterfinals while the loser would have a second chance in the first round (likely against a G5/Pac12 champ). Totally fair. The bigger issue you mention is what happens in a year like 2018 where Notre Dame goes 12-0 as an Independent?

In 2018, #1 Alabama played #4 Georgia with the winner advancing straight to the Sugar Bowl. What should #3 Notre Dame do to advance to the Quarterfinals? Arguably they too should face another playoff-contending team. We pair them up against #12 Washington State and the winner of that game also advances to the Quarterfinals, the Rose Bowl.

I honestly mulled over the Notre Dame situation for a whole day (in my spare time). I could see a Notre Dame-specific rule returning where they qualify for the bye. But in the end I decided this was most fair and perhaps even still favors Notre Dame, who gets the #12 seed in those years.

Administrators are going to favor the idea of making 1 fewer team play 14 games before the Quarterfinals. And, Notre Dame gets an easier opponent than Alabama or Georgia (or Texas and Oklahoma, who would face off for a Fiesta Bowl slot). To let Notre Dame skip that 13th game altogether (or 11-1 Alabama in 2017 or Ohio State in 2016) would be unfair.

It seems like Notre Dame should never qualify for a bye in a 12-team format with no conference championship game to test them. Their SOS would have to end up being #1-#2 in the country (i.e. they handed multiple playoff teams their only losses) in order to change my mind on that.
05-04-2021 04:49 PM
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Post: #29
RE: Resource: 5-1-6 Playoff using AP Poll from 2014-2020
(05-04-2021 02:52 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m inclined to think that the quarter finals will be 4 NYD bowl games.

The question is, will it just be the same 4 every year (dropping 2) or is it some rotation of the current 6? Maybe they add 2 more and only serve as quarter final sites every other year and are aligned with their traditional conferences the off year?

If the PAC 12 stays down, they might only see a Rose Bowl once in a while if it’s permanently a quarter final site.

The Rose Bowl is fixed date by the parade (typically draws over 1m spectators), and it's the wealthiest by a wide margin. The rest of the playoff has to be built around that fact. The Rose Bowl stays January 1st.
05-04-2021 07:43 PM
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RE: Resource: 5-1-6 Playoff using AP Poll from 2014-2020
(05-04-2021 04:49 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(05-04-2021 04:33 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 11:17 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(05-03-2021 10:14 PM)Crayton Wrote:  2020:
#1 Alabama (Sugar)// #8 Oklahoma vs #9 Coastal Carolina
#2 Clemson (Orange)// #7 Indiana vs. #10 Florida
#3 Ohio St (Rose)// #6 Texas A&M vs. #11 Georgia
#4 Cincinnati (Fiesta)// #5 Notre Dame vs. #25 Oregon

2018:
#1 Alabama (Sugar)// #8 Michigan vs. #9 Washington
#2 Clemson (Orange)// #7 UCF vs. #10 Florida
#3 Oklahoma (Fiesta)// #6 Georgia vs #11 LSU
#4 Ohio State (Rose)// #5 Notre Dame vs. #12 Washington St

Appreciate the work, but it will be a cold day in hell when we see the AAC champ jumping ND simply because the former won a conference.

Remember that ND has a vote equal to an entire conference for the playoff system, which means they have veto power over any proposal as a single school. I need to keep telling people that the P5 absolutely, positively are NOT bothered by ND. The Irish make a lot of money for the system, so the powers that be welcome them with open arms even if fans don’t like it.

Who announced the current CFP system to the world? ND AD Jack Swarbrick.

Who is on the working group for CFP expansion today? ND AD Jack Swarbrick.

ND has legitimate and real structural power here.

Like I mentioned before, your original post is really how a 12-team playoff would look if we go to that format. Once we start trying to seed teams based on whether they won a conference or not, it becomes way too unwieldy if only because you NEED to account for a situation where ND is in the top 4. They are so much more valuable in a top 4 slot to the overall system compared to a G5 champ (and frankly all P5 teams outside of maybe Alabama and Ohio State) that the Irish aren’t going to be disadvantaged.

Frozen Underworld, meet Global Pandemic.

If the playoff had been governed by the committee, the OU-ISU winner would have snagged the 4th spot, not Cincinnati. Under the stated rules in 2020, Clemson and Notre Dame would have known going into their ACC final that the winner would advance to the Quarterfinals while the loser would have a second chance in the first round (likely against a G5/Pac12 champ). Totally fair. The bigger issue you mention is what happens in a year like 2018 where Notre Dame goes 12-0 as an Independent?

In 2018, #1 Alabama played #4 Georgia with the winner advancing straight to the Sugar Bowl. What should #3 Notre Dame do to advance to the Quarterfinals? Arguably they too should face another playoff-contending team. We pair them up against #12 Washington State and the winner of that game also advances to the Quarterfinals, the Rose Bowl.

I honestly mulled over the Notre Dame situation for a whole day (in my spare time). I could see a Notre Dame-specific rule returning where they qualify for the bye. But in the end I decided this was most fair and perhaps even still favors Notre Dame, who gets the #12 seed in those years.

Administrators are going to favor the idea of making 1 fewer team play 14 games before the Quarterfinals. And, Notre Dame gets an easier opponent than Alabama or Georgia (or Texas and Oklahoma, who would face off for a Fiesta Bowl slot). To let Notre Dame skip that 13th game altogether (or 11-1 Alabama in 2017 or Ohio State in 2016) would be unfair.

It seems like Notre Dame should never qualify for a bye in a 12-team format with no conference championship game to test them. Their SOS would have to end up being #1-#2 in the country (i.e. they handed multiple playoff teams their only losses) in order to change my mind on that.

There's nothing special about a CCG - it's just a football game and it is not necessarily any more or less a test than any other game. So Notre Dame should be judged on their SOS the same way conference schools are. In the past, ND has often had SOS that have been better than many teams that played in conference championship games.
(This post was last modified: 05-04-2021 10:43 PM by quo vadis.)
05-04-2021 10:42 PM
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BruceMcF Online
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Post: #31
RE: Resource: 5-1-6 Playoff using AP Poll from 2014-2020
(05-04-2021 04:33 PM)Crayton Wrote:  I honestly mulled over the Notre Dame situation for a whole day (in my spare time). I could see a Notre Dame-specific rule returning where they qualify for the bye. But in the end I decided this was most fair and perhaps even still favors Notre Dame, who gets the #12 seed in those years.

Note that a "Notre Dame specific rule" never has to mention Notre Dame. It simply has to specify that an A5 Conference Champion is seeded above any member of an A5 conference who did not win their championship.

Pro forma, that allows any FBS school, including Go5 schools and independents, a chance at a first round bye ... it's just that there is only one school that has more than a remote chance of grabbing that spot.
05-04-2021 11:33 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Resource: 5-1-6 Playoff using AP Poll from 2014-2020
(05-04-2021 11:33 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(05-04-2021 04:33 PM)Crayton Wrote:  I honestly mulled over the Notre Dame situation for a whole day (in my spare time). I could see a Notre Dame-specific rule returning where they qualify for the bye. But in the end I decided this was most fair and perhaps even still favors Notre Dame, who gets the #12 seed in those years.

Note that a "Notre Dame specific rule" never has to mention Notre Dame. It simply has to specify that an A5 Conference Champion is seeded above any member of an A5 conference who did not win their championship.

Pro forma, that allows any FBS school, including Go5 schools and independents, a chance at a first round bye ... it's just that there is only one school that has more than a remote chance of grabbing that spot.

Yes, but why would we want such a rule? Even in a formal sense it is kind of strange, as it allows a G5 conference runner-up to theoretically get a bye, but not an A5 conference runner-up. And why would we want to give P5 conference champs a leg up on a bye over teams from other conferences? Winning the PAC doesn't mean you are better or more deserving than anyone in any other conference.

So maybe the rule, if we need one at all, should be that an A5 conference champ must be seeded above any other team from *their* conference?
05-05-2021 07:33 AM
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Post: #33
RE: Resource: 5-1-6 Playoff using AP Poll from 2014-2020
(05-05-2021 07:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-04-2021 11:33 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(05-04-2021 04:33 PM)Crayton Wrote:  I honestly mulled over the Notre Dame situation for a whole day (in my spare time). I could see a Notre Dame-specific rule returning where they qualify for the bye. But in the end I decided this was most fair and perhaps even still favors Notre Dame, who gets the #12 seed in those years.

Note that a "Notre Dame specific rule" never has to mention Notre Dame. It simply has to specify that an A5 Conference Champion is seeded above any member of an A5 conference who did not win their championship.

Pro forma, that allows any FBS school, including Go5 schools and independents, a chance at a first round bye ... it's just that there is only one school that has more than a remote chance of grabbing that spot.

Yes, but why would we want such a rule? Even in a formal sense it is kind of strange, as it allows a G5 conference runner-up to theoretically get a bye, but not an A5 conference runner-up.

Despite being almost entirely theoretical, given the remoteness of the chance of a Go5 at-large, a parallel Go5 autobid rule would close that possibility.

Quote: And why would we want to give P5 conference champs a leg up on a bye over teams from other conferences? Winning the PAC doesn't mean you are better or more deserving than anyone in any other conference.

"we want" to? I am not arguing in favor of "a Notre Dame rule", just pointing out that there could be one that doesn't mention Notre Dame at all.

If this is about real world possible playoff formats, as opposed to the ideal playoff format which we obviously have no reason to expect will happen, ...
... the question is why would the media partners want to ...
... and I expect the answer would be to avoid diluting the value of the CCG. The SEC might well have three or four participants, but under a system that privileges the conference champions, winning the CCG is still needed to get a first round bye.

Quote: So maybe the rule, if we need one at all, should be that an A5 conference champ must be seeded above any other team from *their* conference?

That is a rule I would like to see ... what you win on the field in a conference championship game should at the very least be a better position than non-champions from your conference, no matter what any galdurn committee sees in their "vision test".
05-05-2021 10:03 AM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Resource: 5-1-6 Playoff using AP Poll from 2014-2020
(05-05-2021 10:03 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(05-05-2021 07:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-04-2021 11:33 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(05-04-2021 04:33 PM)Crayton Wrote:  I honestly mulled over the Notre Dame situation for a whole day (in my spare time). I could see a Notre Dame-specific rule returning where they qualify for the bye. But in the end I decided this was most fair and perhaps even still favors Notre Dame, who gets the #12 seed in those years.

Note that a "Notre Dame specific rule" never has to mention Notre Dame. It simply has to specify that an A5 Conference Champion is seeded above any member of an A5 conference who did not win their championship.

Pro forma, that allows any FBS school, including Go5 schools and independents, a chance at a first round bye ... it's just that there is only one school that has more than a remote chance of grabbing that spot.

Yes, but why would we want such a rule? Even in a formal sense it is kind of strange, as it allows a G5 conference runner-up to theoretically get a bye, but not an A5 conference runner-up.

Despite being almost entirely theoretical, given the remoteness of the chance of a Go5 at-large, a parallel Go5 autobid rule would close that possibility.

Quote: And why would we want to give P5 conference champs a leg up on a bye over teams from other conferences? Winning the PAC doesn't mean you are better or more deserving than anyone in any other conference.

"we want" to? I am not arguing in favor of "a Notre Dame rule", just pointing out that there could be one that doesn't mention Notre Dame at all.

If this is about real world possible playoff formats, as opposed to the ideal playoff format which we obviously have no reason to expect will happen, ...
... the question is why would the media partners want to ...
... and I expect the answer would be to avoid diluting the value of the CCG. The SEC might well have three or four participants, but under a system that privileges the conference champions, winning the CCG is still needed to get a first round bye.

Quote: So maybe the rule, if we need one at all, should be that an A5 conference champ must be seeded above any other team from *their* conference?

That is a rule I would like to see ... what you win on the field in a conference championship game should at the very least be a better position than non-champions from your conference, no matter what any galdurn committee sees in their "vision test".

As much as I'm pretty vocally a CFP committee pessimist, I honestly don't think that they should be restricted on how to seed. I've always been more concerned about the composition of the playoff field itself compared to the seeding.

I go back to "K.I.S.S." - Keep It Simple Stupid.

We're making all of these rules to try to avoid outliers, yet it's almost Darwinian that some other outlier that no one ever anticipated will end up coming through, anyway. So, on the seeding front, I think that there should be flexibility. ND, for instance, should have 100% been a top 4 team if we applied an expanded playoff to last year. Whether they're being treated as an ACC runner-up or as an independent shouldn't be relevant to how they're seeded.
05-05-2021 01:54 PM
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oliveandblue Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Resource: 5-1-6 Playoff using AP Poll from 2014-2020
Just take a straight 12 based on BCS formulas.

I don't think a #9 Boise should miss because Cincy was #6 (assuming both are undefeated).

I also don't think a #11 MSU should miss if the American has a shocking year and something silly like a three loss Tulane/Navy rolls in hot at #18.
05-05-2021 03:27 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Resource: 5-1-6 Playoff using AP Poll from 2014-2020
(05-05-2021 03:27 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  Just take a straight 12 based on BCS formulas.

I don't think a #9 Boise should miss because Cincy was #6 (assuming both are undefeated).

I also don't think a #11 MSU should miss if the American has a shocking year and something silly like a three loss Tulane/Navy rolls in hot at #18.

In all the models presented in this thread a Top 11 (let alone Top 9) team has not been bumped by a lower ranked team who got an auto-bid. Auto-bids are there to ensure revenue streams to certain partners and are one of the primary pushes toward expansion.
05-05-2021 03:48 PM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Resource: 5-1-6 Playoff using AP Poll from 2014-2020
(05-05-2021 03:48 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(05-05-2021 03:27 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  Just take a straight 12 based on BCS formulas.

I don't think a #9 Boise should miss because Cincy was #6 (assuming both are undefeated).

I also don't think a #11 MSU should miss if the American has a shocking year and something silly like a three loss Tulane/Navy rolls in hot at #18.

In all the models presented in this thread a Top 11 (let alone Top 9) team has not been bumped by a lower ranked team who got an auto-bid. Auto-bids are there to ensure revenue streams to certain partners and are one of the primary pushes toward expansion.

Also a way to ward off unintended consequences, like conference championships not mattering.

In an ideal scenario, the regular season is important because it determines if you make the CCG, the CCG is important because it determines if you make it to the playoffs, and the playoffs are important because duh. You can replace "important" with "interesting" or "watchable" or most importantly "valuable" in this case.

As far as killing interest in the other bowls, that damage was already done by the initial playoff. Only thing we can do now is make more of the bowls matter.
(This post was last modified: 05-05-2021 03:59 PM by CoastalJuan.)
05-05-2021 03:58 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Resource: 5-1-6 Playoff using AP Poll from 2014-2020
Of the 3 modifications I proposed to the basic 5-1-6 model, I will note that only 1 received pushback. Any thoughts on how a 2nd G5 champ might qualify or whether a max number of CCG-losers would enhance the importance of CCGs?

Returning to Notre Dame (or 11-1 runner-ups in the Big Ten-East and SEC-West) qualifying directly into the Quarterfinals:

Its not so much winning a conference and prejudicing the system against Independents, it is the 13th game. If you have 2 similarly ranked teams and one plays a 13th game, then coaches, administrators, and fans, would all see the logic in having both teams complete 13 games prior to the Quarterfinals, than having one play 12 and the other play 14.

Even if Notre Dame could schedule a 13th game, I'm pretty confident they'd rather take the week off and go straight into the playoff than risk injury for a Top 4 spot that they may not even reach. Said otherwise: Notre Dame still gets an advantage over top SEC and Big Ten teams.

TV revenue? Ya, I don't think TV execs are going to bemoan an extra Notre Dame game, "We'd rather air Cincinnati against Oregon!" said no one ever.
05-05-2021 04:12 PM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Resource: 5-1-6 Playoff using AP Poll from 2014-2020
(05-05-2021 04:12 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Of the 3 modifications I proposed to the basic 5-1-6 model, I will note that only 1 received pushback. Any thoughts on how a 2nd G5 champ might qualify or whether a max number of CCG-losers would enhance the importance of CCGs?

Returning to Notre Dame (or 11-1 runner-ups in the Big Ten-East and SEC-West) qualifying directly into the Quarterfinals:

Its not so much winning a conference and prejudicing the system against Independents, it is the 13th game. If you have 2 similarly ranked teams and one plays a 13th game, then coaches, administrators, and fans, would all see the logic in having both teams complete 13 games prior to the Quarterfinals, than having one play 12 and the other play 14.

Even if Notre Dame could schedule a 13th game, I'm pretty confident they'd rather take the week off and go straight into the playoff than risk injury for a Top 4 spot that they may not even reach. Said otherwise: Notre Dame still gets an advantage over top SEC and Big Ten teams.

TV revenue? Ya, I don't think TV execs are going to bemoan an extra Notre Dame game, "We'd rather air Cincinnati against Oregon!" said no one ever.

On this thread or another, I was saying that (imo) Notre Dame should get an exception if their schedule is...exceptional. By that, I don't mean an ACC schedule that is MAC quality without Clemson. I mean that, in the hypothetical 12-team format, they need to beat a couple of those playoff teams in order for the lack of a quality CCG to not hurt them.
05-05-2021 04:33 PM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: Resource: 5-1-6 Playoff using AP Poll from 2014-2020
(05-03-2021 10:04 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I would have preferred the CFP rankings used but this is good work.

Call me crazy, but I’d prefer to dump the committee and let the old BCS formula determine:

Who the top G5 champ is

Who the 6 at large representatives are

Overall seeding for the field

This committee is too prone to chicanery and I think they under value teams that aren’t traditional blue bloods.

A committee is a good idea for maximizing matchup-value (revenue) and reducing rematches. But, I'd favor a formula to designate who gets the BYEs or the home games (if any) the first round. The committee can then go in and slide teams around within the 1-4, 5-8, and 9-12 seeds to get a decent bracket.
06-08-2021 01:15 PM
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