Unthinkable Realignment Option, But Profitability & Associations Could Work
In the future, thinking 10 years out or more here, Boomers will be fading, smaller generations will be emerging for college enrollment, and the ROI other than in STEM fields indicates a shrinking enrollment. In such a milieu branding will be crucial for schools to remain full, and exposure to the public's eye more crucial than ever. The two conferences that offer that through athletics are the SEC and Big 10.
What if realignment reflects the need of certain schools to distance themselves from others. Could it be the lure for some rather dramatic moves for some?
What if North Carolina (a nod to XLance for bringing this up) decides it needs a branding advantage that keeps recruiting ties to the Southeast to set itself apart. And what if Texas (as discussed in the What if Texas thread) decides to do the same but all for reasons of positioning themselves best for the coming changes?
Might the SEC expand to 16 with North Carolina and Texas? Might Virginia and Notre Dame do the same with the Big 10? Or might we see some other finagling to create another highly competitive conference and have a school like Notre Dame consider associations with the strongest recruiting grounds in the nation by doing the unthinkable?
Let's assume for a moment that Vanderbilt and Duke both decide to keep basketball, deemphasize football, or drop it, and opt for a Southern Ivy but one without high level, or any football participation.
Could a Notre Dame join the SEC as the only private, for the top media exposure, for the top recruiting exposure, and to keep their annuals with Navy and Southern Cal and create a true super conference? Unthinkable right? What if their only other option was to be simply branded as a Northern Midwestern University within the Big 10? Interesting isn't it! The PAC is too far. A rebuilt Big 12 without Texas is not worth it to them, unless possibly it includes USC and some other PAC brands. And they could get East Coast, Deep South, and Southwest exposure while keeping an annual with a California school by joining the SEC. If you have to be a conference member to access the CFP in a shrunken upper tier this might prove to be compelling. Besides if it accomplishes ESPN's objective to garner full rights to N.D. that works too, especially if ESPN shapes the new conference comprised of the best of the Big 12 and ACC and controls that.
So, Texas, Notre Dame, and North Carolina to the SEC???
We know what Texas gets. We just discussed what N.D. would get. North Carolina sets itself apart in revenue from all of its East Coast ACC rivals and sets itself apart in recruiting access from those who match their revenues in the Big 10. If Duke is basketball only that won't impact their ability to play their favored sport. What's more is that they retain bell cow status for hoops.
So if NIL and Pay for Play changes the landscape of college athletics instead of going larger we go smaller and group for exposure dominance in areas important to each school.
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Notre Dame, South Carolina, Tennessee
Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
Play a 9 game conference schedule. Everyone in your division, two crossover permanent rivals.
Who opts for the Big 10? N.C. State and Virginia. If Northwestern drops down or another Big 10 state school (though I don't see it happening) then you have Oklahoma, Colorado, or possibly even Georgia Tech hanging there wanting security and exposure.
What about that new conference? Possibly something like this:
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami
Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Louisville, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Baylor, Kansas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
With the PAC maybe they add, maybe they don't.
Now wouldn't that be wild?
(This post was last modified: 05-02-2021 07:32 PM by JRsec.)
|