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Poll: 12 Team Playoff Format
Top 12 in final CFP rankings
5 auto bids from 5 autonomous conf, 7 at large
6 auto bids, 5 P5 plus 1 G5, 6 at larges
7 auto bids, P5 + AAC, plus one other conf, plus 5 at larges
10 FBS conferences receive auto bids, 2 at larges
Top 6 ranked conf winners in CFP poll receive auto bids, 6 at larges
Other - Specify
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12 Team Playoff Format
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #21
RE: 12 Team Playoff Format
(04-29-2021 01:42 AM)blazr Wrote:  Any format that includes, or even makes likely, 2 or more G5 teams is DOA. We should all know that by now.
The phrasing suggests there is a body of evidence which leads directly to that conclusion.

I wonder what that body of evidence is? Is it based on the fact that every change in "non power conference" access since the first year of the BCS has been an increase in non-power conference access?
04-29-2021 02:04 AM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #22
RE: 12 Team Playoff Format
(04-29-2021 02:04 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(04-29-2021 01:42 AM)blazr Wrote:  Any format that includes, or even makes likely, 2 or more G5 teams is DOA. We should all know that by now.
The phrasing suggests there is a body of evidence which leads directly to that conclusion.

I wonder what that body of evidence is? Is it based on the fact that every change in "non power conference" access since the first year of the BCS has been an increase in non-power conference access?

The premise is a 12-team playoff. There's 12 slots in the NY6 currently - 1 of the 12 goes to G5.
04-29-2021 08:27 AM
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Sactowndog Offline
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Post: #23
RE: 12 Team Playoff Format
(04-28-2021 08:20 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  
(04-28-2021 08:04 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  The AAC has dominated the NY6 access bowl, it's in the best interest of the MWC, Sunbelt, CUSA & MAC to push for the AAC to be included in the autobids and get a G4 access spot.

The dirty secret here is that if 5-1-6 becomes reality, the AAC calls Boise or BYU and becomes a de facto power conference that monopolizes the "midmajor" bid.

If you're the AAC, this is actually a win condition for the conference. This is EXACTLY how you do P6. You can afford to give BYU favorable terms here, too - that's how important owning that bid becomes.

What may not play into the AAC’s hands is college football is in danger of becoming a regional sport and the commission wants to expand its breadth of interest.
05-01-2021 12:59 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #24
RE: 12 Team Playoff Format
(04-28-2021 03:49 PM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  P5 conference champs should never be given an automatic slot unless all FBS champs get one. For that reason, it should be the top 12 teams and that’s that.

I agree, but that would only be guaranteed in an NCAA sanctioned playoff, which this isn’t. That was botched long ago.
05-01-2021 07:36 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #25
RE: 12 Team Playoff Format
(04-28-2021 09:11 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  
(04-28-2021 08:20 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  
(04-28-2021 08:04 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  The AAC has dominated the NY6 access bowl, it's in the best interest of the MWC, Sunbelt, CUSA & MAC to push for the AAC to be included in the autobids and get a G4 access spot.

The dirty secret here is that if 5-1-6 becomes reality, the AAC calls Boise or BYU and becomes a de facto power conference that monopolizes the "midmajor" bid.

If you're the AAC, this is actually a win condition for the conference. This is EXACTLY how you do P6. You can afford to give BYU favorable terms here, too - that's how important owning that bid becomes.

If the CFP goes to a 5-1-6 or 6-1-5 the AAC doesn't need to give BYU favorable terms in either scenario. With either one if BYU has CFP aspirations they will jump to the AAC the moment that scenario happens since it would provide them with actual access.

1) The American does not provide automatic access. There is no guarantee there.

2) BYU would have made a 12-team playoff last season if they had one P5 opponent on their schedule and went undefeated. They don’t need the American for access with six at-large bids available and their normal schedules.
(This post was last modified: 05-01-2021 07:41 AM by esayem.)
05-01-2021 07:40 AM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #26
RE: 12 Team Playoff Format
(04-29-2021 08:27 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(04-29-2021 02:04 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(04-29-2021 01:42 AM)blazr Wrote:  Any format that includes, or even makes likely, 2 or more G5 teams is DOA. We should all know that by now.
The phrasing suggests there is a body of evidence which leads directly to that conclusion.

I wonder what that body of evidence is? Is it based on the fact that every change in "non power conference" access since the first year of the BCS has been an increase in non-power conference access?

The premise is a 12-team playoff. There's 12 slots in the NY6 currently - 1 of the 12 goes to G5.

And that is more access than the last BCS system, which was more access than the second BCS system, which was more access than the first BCS system.

So you've got two different precedents ... one is that at present, the Go5 has one game among 12 in the NY6 system, the other is that over time, the non-"power" conferences have been gaining more access. Just looking at the first one alone is no ironclad case for not gaining more access this time as well.
05-01-2021 08:14 AM
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goodknightfl Online
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Post: #27
RE: 12 Team Playoff Format
you need a never ever happening choice.
05-01-2021 08:23 AM
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balanced_view Offline
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Post: #28
RE: 12 Team Playoff Format
(04-28-2021 10:56 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  If FBS goes to a 12 team playoff, predict the format of the playoff.

Given that the A5 will be the ones deciding this, any prediction that is not heavy handed in their favor is wishful thinking. so either Top 12, or 5-1-6.

For this poll I went with 5-1-6 because 5-1-6 seems to be enough bread crumbs for the G5 to be happy that the A5 controls 98% of everything. Also, It gives the other conferences outside of the SEC a chance to get multi bids for those off years when a high ranked member loses their championship game.
05-01-2021 08:45 AM
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ken d Online
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Post: #29
RE: 12 Team Playoff Format
I don't expect there to be a 12 team playoff, but if there must be one, this is how I would do it.

No autobids. Every conference champion ranked* in the Top 25 gets a spot. The four highest ranked champs get a bye to the quarterfinals played at New Years. The remaining champions plus at large teams are seeded #5-#12, with #5-8 hosting the first round games the week after CCGs.

* No selection committee. To be eligible for the playoff, a team must be ranked in the Top 25 in both the AP and Coaches' Poll. Using those polls, plus the Massey Composite, Sagarin, and one other TBD, each eligible school throws out its best rank and its worst and averages the middle three rankings. Then all are seeded for the playoff (or excluded) based on those averages.

In a typical year, two G5 champions would make the field. In the 7 years of the CFP, and using the selection committee's rankings, one G5 would have made it in 2014 and 2015, the next three years two would make it, and the last two years three would have made it (including the anomalous COVID year).

In 2022 the schedule would look like this:

Week 1 - August 27 (Saturday)
Week 13 - Sat November 19 (Rivalry Week)
Week 14 - Thanksgiving (Conference Championships - 10 games)
Week 15 - December 3 (First playoff round hosted by seeds #5-#8)
Sat Dec 31 (Playoff quarterfinals at Peach, Cotton, Fiesta and Citrus)
Sun Jan 1 - (Reserved for NFL)
Mon Jan 2 - (Rose, Sugar and Orange Bowls with existing conference tie-ins)
Mon Jan 9-10 (semifinals rotate among Rose, Sugar and Orange Bowl sites)
Mon Jan 16 (National Final at site determined by bid)

The CFP would pay the travel costs of the first round visitors (seeds #9-12) and all teams in the next three rounds. The host schools would be responsible for game day expenses out of parking and concession revenues. All ticket revenues and media revenues less expenses go into the pool to be distributed among the participants with each getting a share for each game they participate in.
(This post was last modified: 05-02-2021 04:14 AM by ken d.)
05-01-2021 03:12 PM
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goofus Offline
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Post: #30
RE: 12 Team Playoff Format
(05-01-2021 03:12 PM)ken d Wrote:  I don't expect there to be a 12 team playoff, but if there must be one, this is how I would do it.

No autobids. Every conference champion ranked* in the Top 25 gets a spot. The four highest ranked champs get a bye to the quarterfinals played at New Years. The remaining champions plus at large teams are seeded #5-#12, with #5-8 hosting the first round games the week after CCGs.

* No selection committee. To be eligible for the playoff, a team must be ranked in the Top 25 in both the AP and Coaches' Poll. Using those polls, plus the Massey Composite, Sagarin, and one other TBD, each eligible school throws out its best rank and its worst and averages the middle three rankings. Then all are seeded for the playoff (or excluded) based on those averages.

In a typical year, two G5 champions would make the field. In the 7 years of the CFP, and using the selection committee's rankings, one G5 would have made it in 2014 and 2015, the next three years two would make it, and the last two years three would have made it (including the anomalous COVID year).

In 2022 the schedule would look like this:

Week 1 - August 27 (Saturday)
Week 14 - Thanksgiving (Rivalry Week)
Week 15 - December 10 (First playoff round hosted by seeds #5-#8)
Week 19 - December 31 (Playoff quarterfinals at Peach, Cotton, Fiesta and Capital
One bowls)
Mon Jan 2 - Rose, Sugar and Orange Bowls with existing conference tie-ins
Week 20 - January 9 and 10 (semifinals rotate among Rose, Sugar and Orange Bowl
sites)
Week 21 - January 16 (National Final at site determined by bid)

The CFP would pay the travel costs of the first round visitors (seeds #9-12) and all teams in the next three rounds. The host schools would be responsible for game day expenses out of parking and concession revenues. All ticket revenues and media revenues less expenses go into the pool to be distributed among the participants with each getting a share for each game they participate in.

I think I can follow this. I like it but I think you got a couple of typos.

Week 15 would be Dec 3 and the week of the CCG. Week 16 would be Dec 10.

The Capitol One Bowl is no longer called the Capital One Bowl and has reverted back to being called the Citrus Bowl.
(This post was last modified: 05-01-2021 04:18 PM by goofus.)
05-01-2021 04:06 PM
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ken d Online
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Post: #31
RE: 12 Team Playoff Format
(05-01-2021 04:06 PM)goofus Wrote:  
(05-01-2021 03:12 PM)ken d Wrote:  I don't expect there to be a 12 team playoff, but if there must be one, this is how I would do it.

No autobids. Every conference champion ranked* in the Top 25 gets a spot. The four highest ranked champs get a bye to the quarterfinals played at New Years. The remaining champions plus at large teams are seeded #5-#12, with #5-8 hosting the first round games the week after CCGs.

* No selection committee. To be eligible for the playoff, a team must be ranked in the Top 25 in both the AP and Coaches' Poll. Using those polls, plus the Massey Composite, Sagarin, and one other TBD, each eligible school throws out its best rank and its worst and averages the middle three rankings. Then all are seeded for the playoff (or excluded) based on those averages.

In a typical year, two G5 champions would make the field. In the 7 years of the CFP, and using the selection committee's rankings, one G5 would have made it in 2014 and 2015, the next three years two would make it, and the last two years three would have made it (including the anomalous COVID year).

In 2022 the schedule would look like this:

Week 1 - August 27 (Saturday)
Week 14 - Thanksgiving (Rivalry Week)
Week 15 - December 10 (First playoff round hosted by seeds #5-#8)
Week 19 - December 31 (Playoff quarterfinals at Peach, Cotton, Fiesta and Capital
One bowls)
Mon Jan 2 - Rose, Sugar and Orange Bowls with existing conference tie-ins
Week 20 - January 9 and 10 (semifinals rotate among Rose, Sugar and Orange Bowl
sites)
Week 21 - January 16 (National Final at site determined by bid)

The CFP would pay the travel costs of the first round visitors (seeds #9-12) and all teams in the next three rounds. The host schools would be responsible for game day expenses out of parking and concession revenues. All ticket revenues and media revenues less expenses go into the pool to be distributed among the participants with each getting a share for each game they participate in.

I think I can follow this. I like it but I think you got a couple of typos.

Week 15 would be Dec 3 and the week of the CCG. Week 16 would be Dec 10.

The Capitol One Bowl is no longer called the Capital One Bowl and has reverted back to being called the Citrus Bowl.

Correct on all counts. Thanks. My mistake was that Week 14 is CCG week and then Week 15 is the first playoff round. I have fixed my OP.

FWIW, every P5 champion would have made the playoffs every year. But it was touch and go last year with the abbreviated PAC 12 schedule and Oregon's upset over USC in the CCG. Oregon was ranked #25 (USC was #17).
(This post was last modified: 05-02-2021 04:16 AM by ken d.)
05-01-2021 04:47 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #32
RE: 12 Team Playoff Format
12 is kind of Funky.

I guess you have 12 teams play 6 games, with the two highest seeds getting a one week bye, the lower four remaining seeds play for the final two semi-final spots

The assumption here is that you can sell the 1st round NY6 games like Bowl games, where people will travel. But the next two round have to be on campus or a nearby (NFL) stadium. The national championship game is like the super bowl, you get a different kind of "fan" who pays $5000 a ticket to be there.

I didn't put it correctly, but if you go to that format it should be 5 P5 CCG winners, 6 at-large and the winner of a G5 play-in game (in place of their CCG). I put other instead of the 5-6-1 format by mistake. You can adjust the vote total to account for that wrong button push.
05-01-2021 06:15 PM
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ken d Online
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Post: #33
RE: 12 Team Playoff Format
The first round pairings for the last four seasons in my scenario (with actual CFP ranks in parentheses and second round opponent in bold):

2020:
#12 Oregon (25) @ #5 Notre Dame (4); #4 Oklahoma (6)
#9 Georgia (9) @ #8 Cincinnati (8); #1 Alabama (1)

#10 Coastal Carolina (12) @ #7 Florida (7); #2 Clemson (2)
#11 San Jose State (22) @ #6 Texas A&M (5); #3 Ohio State (3)


2019:
#12 Appalachian State (20) @ #5 Georgia (5); #4 Oklahoma (4)
#9 Florida (9) @ #8 Wisconsin (8); #1 LSU (1)

#10 Memphis (17) @ #7 Baylor (7); #2 Ohio State (2)
#11 Boise State (19) @ #6 Oregon (6); #3 Clemson (3)


2018:
#12 Fresno State (21) @ #5 Notre Dame (3); #4 Ohio State (6)
#9 Washington (9) @ #8 UCF (8); #1 Alabama (1)

#10 Florida (10) @ #7 Michigan (7); #2 Clemson (2)
#11 LSU (11) @ #6 Georgia (5); #4 Oklahoma (4)


2017:
#12 Boise State (25) @ #5 Alabama (4); #4 Ohio State (5)
#9 Penn State (9) @ #8 USC (8); #1 Clemson (1)

#10 Miami (10) @ #7 Auburn (7); #2 Oklahoma (2)
#11 UCF (12) @ #6 Wisconsin (6); #3 Georgia (3)


Two things to note - (1) the top four seeds, which must be conference champs, won't always be the four highest ranked teams, and (2) Notre Dame as an independent can never get a first round bye.
05-01-2021 06:30 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #34
RE: 12 Team Playoff Format
(05-01-2021 03:12 PM)ken d Wrote:  I don't expect there to be a 12 team playoff, but if there must be one, this is how I would do it.

No autobids. Every conference champion ranked* in the Top 25 gets a spot. The four highest ranked champs get a bye to the quarterfinals played at New Years. The remaining champions plus at large teams are seeded #5-#12, with #5-8 hosting the first round games the week after CCGs.

* No selection committee. To be eligible for the playoff, a team must be ranked in the Top 25 in both the AP and Coaches' Poll. Using those polls, plus the Massey Composite, Sagarin, and one other TBD, each eligible school throws out its best rank and its worst and averages the middle three rankings. Then all are seeded for the playoff (or excluded) based on those averages.

In a typical year, two G5 champions would make the field. In the 7 years of the CFP, and using the selection committee's rankings, one G5 would have made it in 2014 and 2015, the next three years two would make it, and the last two years three would have made it (including the anomalous COVID year).

In 2022 the schedule would look like this:

Week 1 - August 27 (Saturday)
Week 14 - Thanksgiving (Rivalry Week)
Week 15 - December 10 (First playoff round hosted by seeds #5-#8)
Week 19 - December 31 (Playoff quarterfinals at Peach, Cotton, Fiesta and Capital
One bowls)
Mon Jan 2 - Rose, Sugar and Orange Bowls with existing conference tie-ins
Week 20 - January 9 and 10 (semifinals rotate among Rose, Sugar and Orange Bowl
sites)
Week 21 - January 16 (National Final at site determined by bid)

The CFP would pay the travel costs of the first round visitors (seeds #9-12) and all teams in the next three rounds. The host schools would be responsible for game day expenses out of parking and concession revenues. All ticket revenues and media revenues less expenses go into the pool to be distributed among the participants with each getting a share for each game they participate in.


Very well done, ken d. I actually would be fine with this.
05-01-2021 07:06 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #35
RE: 12 Team Playoff Format
(05-01-2021 06:30 PM)ken d Wrote:  The first round pairings for the last four seasons in my scenario (with actual CFP ranks in parentheses and second round opponent in bold):

2020:
#12 Oregon (25) @ #5 Notre Dame (4); #4 Oklahoma (6)
#9 Georgia (9) @ #8 Cincinnati (8); #1 Alabama (1)

#10 Coastal Carolina (12) @ #7 Florida (7); #2 Clemson (2)
#11 San Jose State (22) @ #6 Texas A&M (5); #3 Ohio State (3)


2019:
#12 Appalachian State (20) @ #5 Georgia (5); #4 Oklahoma (4)
#9 Florida (9) @ #8 Wisconsin (8); #1 LSU (1)

#10 Memphis (17) @ #7 Baylor (7); #2 Ohio State (2)
#11 Boise State (19) @ #6 Oregon (6); #3 Clemson (3)


2018:
#12 Fresno State (21) @ #5 Notre Dame (3); #4 Ohio State (6)
#9 Washington (9) @ #8 UCF (8); #1 Alabama (1)

#10 Florida (10) @ #7 Michigan (7); #2 Clemson (2)
#11 LSU (11) @ #6 Georgia (5); #4 Oklahoma (4)


2017:
#12 Boise State (25) @ #5 Alabama (4); #4 Ohio State (5)
#9 Penn State (9) @ #8 USC (8); #1 Clemson (1)

#10 Miami (10) @ #7 Auburn (7); #2 Oklahoma (2)
#11 UCF (12) @ #6 Wisconsin (6); #3 Georgia (3)


Two things to note - (1) the top four seeds, which must be conference champs, won't always be the four highest ranked teams, and (2) Notre Dame as an independent can never get a first round bye.

This is precisely how I would do it. They probably won't range so widely in number of champs. It'll either be 6+7th if high enough or 7+8th if high enough. I don't think an 3rd G5 champ outside the Top 20 is going (sorry SJSU). Love the rule for the top four seeds too.

They may give every P5 Champ a Top 8 seed, but hopefully that is coupled with giving the best G5 a top 8 seed too; that should squeeze 1 P5 at-large out of a home playoff game each year, elevating the value of winning your conference.

The locations of these games (home? NY6 for quarterfinals?) are the bigger unknowns, in my mind.
(This post was last modified: 05-01-2021 10:17 PM by Crayton.)
05-01-2021 10:10 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #36
RE: 12 Team Playoff Format
(05-01-2021 03:12 PM)ken d Wrote:  I don't expect there to be a 12 team playoff, but if there must be one, this is how I would do it.

No autobids. Every conference champion ranked* in the Top 25 gets a spot. The four highest ranked champs get a bye to the quarterfinals played at New Years. The remaining champions plus at large teams are seeded #5-#12, with #5-8 hosting the first round games the week after CCGs.

* No selection committee. To be eligible for the playoff, a team must be ranked in the Top 25 in both the AP and Coaches' Poll. Using those polls, plus the Massey Composite, Sagarin, and one other TBD, each eligible school throws out its best rank and its worst and averages the middle three rankings. Then all are seeded for the playoff (or excluded) based on those averages. ...

I really like this, therefore I expect it has zero chance of being picked.

On the other hand, if it compromises with the seedy reality that it is media partners funding the increase in money which is driving the CFP expansion, with 5 P5 champions seeded 1-5 and any other conference champion in the top 25, as picked by a committee, I would not automatically assume it is DOA unless people with more information than I point out a fatal flaw or two.
05-02-2021 12:33 AM
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ken d Online
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Post: #37
RE: 12 Team Playoff Format
Over the 7 years of the CFP era, these are the number of appearances in the hypothetical 12 team playoff by conference:

SEC 19
B1G 17
B12 11
ACC 10
PAC 10
AAC 6
MWC 5
SBC 2
MAC 1
IND 3 (Notre Dame)

Based on this, a revenue split of 80% to P5 (including Notre Dame) and 20% to G5 seems appropriate.
05-02-2021 04:47 AM
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Post: #38
RE: 12 Team Playoff Format
Let’s not overcomplicate things. If ND is in the top 4, they are in the top 4. They get a first round bye like any one else in the top 4.

If the quarter-final sites are the Rose, Sugar, Orange, and Fiesta then the other 3 in the top 4 get their traditional tie ins and ND gets the bowl that is left over.

Alabama: Sugar
Clemson Orange
Ohio St: Rose
ND: Fiesta

One of the keys to a successful playoff is an easily understandable selection and placement process. the top 4 seeds should get to host their quarter-final at their traditional bowl site. The only time this would be a problem is if:

The Big Ten and PAC 12 both have a team in the top 4. Solution: Rose Bowl goes to the higher ranked school. The lower ranked school goes to whichever NY4 bowl doesn’t have a host school in the top 4.

A conference produces 2 or more teams in the top 4. Solution: The Conference Champion gets the traditional tie in. The other(s) pick from the remaining NY4 bowls.
05-02-2021 08:58 AM
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