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P5 Publics with Smallest State Support
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IHAVETRIED Offline
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P5 Publics with Smallest State Support
The new census data got me thinking. I wonder just how thinly some major P5 Public universities are spread. It's both a market and a budget issue. One way to look at this is to spread out a state's population over the number of P5 Public universities within the state. Several states are quite "thin" when it's looked at that way:

I think there are 53 P5 Publics.

They are split among 35 of the 50 states.

The states with the Lowest Population per Public P5 are:

Kansas 1,470,432 (2,940,864 over 2 schools)
Mississippi 1,481,958 (2,963,916 over 2 schools)
Iowa 1,596,204 (3,192,408 over 2 schools)
West Virginia 1,795,048 (1,795,048 over 1 school)
Nebraska 1,963,332 (1,963,332 over 1 school)
Oklahoma 1,981,758 (3,963,518 over 2 schools)
Oregon 2,120,751 (4,241,502 over 2 schools)
Kentucky 2,254,671 (4,509,342 over 2 schools)
Alabama 2,515,027 (5,030,054 over 2 schools)
South Carolina 2,562,357 (5,124,714 over 2 schools)


I think the greatest budget pressures would come to public P5s located within low population states.

My short list of teams who are going to need to "pay their own way" or go home is:

Kansas State
Iowa State
Oklahoma State
Oregon State
Louisville

I think low population teams in rich media conferences are protected. That's why teams such as Mississippi State are not on my short list.

Also, low population teams coming from states with only one school are protected to some degree. That's why West Virginia and Nebraska don't make my short list.
(This post was last modified: 04-28-2021 08:55 AM by IHAVETRIED.)
04-28-2021 08:35 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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RE: P5 Publics with Smallest State Support
I have a former co-worker who attended Washington State. My take is that the WSU fan base is fairly modest but I could be wrong.
04-28-2021 08:37 AM
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IHAVETRIED Offline
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RE: P5 Publics with Smallest State Support
(04-28-2021 08:37 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  I have a former co-worker who attended Washington State. My take is that the WSU fan base is fairly modest but I could be wrong.

Yes, I didn't do fan bases. I did average population per school. The state of Washington has 2 schools sharing 7,715,950 people.
04-28-2021 08:44 AM
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CliftonAve Online
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RE: P5 Publics with Smallest State Support
Meanwhile Ohio is sitting there with nearly 12M people and one P5 school.
04-28-2021 08:47 AM
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IHAVETRIED Offline
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RE: P5 Publics with Smallest State Support
(04-28-2021 08:47 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Meanwhile Ohio is sitting there with nearly 12M people and one P5 school.

Yep. 11,808,859. (Ohio State)
04-28-2021 08:53 AM
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Bronco'14 Offline
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RE: P5 Publics with Smallest State Support
If Texas or Oklahoma leave the Big 12, the rest are in trouble.

I agree w/ your list Kansas St & Iowa St.
(This post was last modified: 04-28-2021 09:03 AM by Bronco'14.)
04-28-2021 09:03 AM
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IHAVETRIED Offline
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RE: P5 Publics with Smallest State Support
(04-28-2021 09:03 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  If Texas or Oklahoma leave the Big 12, the rest are in trouble.

I agree w/ your list Kansas St & Iowa St.

Yes, the smaller B12 Publics need the media $$ from Texas and Oklahoma. Any lost media $$ would need to be made up by the state taxpayers in OK, Iowa and Kansas.
04-28-2021 09:11 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: P5 Publics with Smallest State Support
(04-28-2021 08:35 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  The new census data got me thinking. I wonder just how thinly some major P5 Public universities are spread. It's both a market and a budget issue. One way to look at this is to spread out a state's population over the number of P5 Public universities within the state. Several states are quite "thin" when it's looked at that way:

Given that states like Mississippi, Alabama, Iowa, Nebraska, South Carolina, Oklahoma and West Virginia, all of which strongly support their P5 football teams, are on this list, I am not sure how relevant a measure this is.

In fact, it might be that small population means the P5 football is the "only game in town", leading to more interest than in some bigger states where there is more to do.
(This post was last modified: 04-28-2021 09:15 AM by quo vadis.)
04-28-2021 09:14 AM
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whittx Offline
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RE: P5 Publics with Smallest State Support
(04-28-2021 08:35 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  The new census data got me thinking. I wonder just how thinly some major P5 Public universities are spread. It's both a market and a budget issue. One way to look at this is to spread out a state's population over the number of P5 Public universities within the state. Several states are quite "thin" when it's looked at that way:

I think there are 53 P5 Publics.

They are split among 35 of the 50 states.

The states with the Lowest Population per Public P5 are:

Kansas 1,470,432 (2,940,864 over 2 schools)
Mississippi 1,481,958 (2,963,916 over 2 schools)
Iowa 1,596,204 (3,192,408 over 2 schools)
West Virginia 1,795,048 (1,795,048 over 1 school)
Nebraska 1,963,332 (1,963,332 over 1 school)
Oklahoma 1,981,758 (3,963,518 over 2 schools)
Oregon 2,120,751 (4,241,502 over 2 schools)
Kentucky 2,254,671 (4,509,342 over 2 schools)
Alabama 2,515,027 (5,030,054 over 2 schools)
South Carolina 2,562,357 (5,124,714 over 2 schools)


I think the greatest budget pressures would come to public P5s located within low population states.

My short list of teams who are going to need to "pay their own way" or go home is:

Kansas State
Iowa State
Oklahoma State
Oregon State
Louisville

I think low population teams in rich media conferences are protected. That's why teams such as Mississippi State are not on my short list.

Also, low population teams coming from states with only one school are protected to some degree. That's why West Virginia and Nebraska don't make my short list.

Louisville would be fine, since unlike most of the schools here, they are in a large enough city that can support them, both from an a attendance and from a corporate standpoint.
04-28-2021 09:22 AM
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IHAVETRIED Offline
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RE: P5 Publics with Smallest State Support
(04-28-2021 09:14 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-28-2021 08:35 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  The new census data got me thinking. I wonder just how thinly some major P5 Public universities are spread. It's both a market and a budget issue. One way to look at this is to spread out a state's population over the number of P5 Public universities within the state. Several states are quite "thin" when it's looked at that way:

Given that states like Mississippi, Alabama, Iowa, Nebraska, South Carolina, Oklahoma and West Virginia, all of which strongly support their P5 football teams, are on this list, I am not sure how relevant a measure this is.

In fact, it might be that small population means the P5 football is the "only game in town", leading to more interest than in some bigger states where there is more to do.

Oh, I think there's plenty of merit to your argument. I mean you can start looking at all sorts of metrics. My point is that added financial pressure is placed on low population state taxpayers who fund public universities.

No way are states like Nebraska EVER going to lose their only teams.
04-28-2021 09:27 AM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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RE: P5 Publics with Smallest State Support
(04-28-2021 08:35 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  The new census data got me thinking. I wonder just how thinly some major P5 Public universities are spread. It's both a market and a budget issue. One way to look at this is to spread out a state's population over the number of P5 Public universities within the state. Several states are quite "thin" when it's looked at that way:

I think there are 53 P5 Publics.

They are split among 35 of the 50 states.

The states with the Lowest Population per Public P5 are:

Kansas 1,470,432 (2,940,864 over 2 schools)
Mississippi 1,481,958 (2,963,916 over 2 schools)
Iowa 1,596,204 (3,192,408 over 2 schools)
West Virginia 1,795,048 (1,795,048 over 1 school)
Nebraska 1,963,332 (1,963,332 over 1 school)
Oklahoma 1,981,758 (3,963,518 over 2 schools)
Oregon 2,120,751 (4,241,502 over 2 schools)
Kentucky 2,254,671 (4,509,342 over 2 schools)
Alabama 2,515,027 (5,030,054 over 2 schools)
South Carolina 2,562,357 (5,124,714 over 2 schools)


I think the greatest budget pressures would come to public P5s located within low population states.

My short list of teams who are going to need to "pay their own way" or go home is:

Kansas State
Iowa State
Oklahoma State
Oregon State
Louisville

I think low population teams in rich media conferences are protected. That's why teams such as Mississippi State are not on my short list.

Also, low population teams coming from states with only one school are protected to some degree. That's why West Virginia and Nebraska don't make my short list.

It's not quite as easy as looking at population if you're talking state financial support (vs. just fan rooting support). Different state's provide different levels of support to athletics. Quick math is North gives more and South gives less, but there are exceptions.
04-28-2021 09:29 AM
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IHAVETRIED Offline
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RE: P5 Publics with Smallest State Support
(04-28-2021 09:22 AM)whittx Wrote:  
(04-28-2021 08:35 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  The new census data got me thinking. I wonder just how thinly some major P5 Public universities are spread. It's both a market and a budget issue. One way to look at this is to spread out a state's population over the number of P5 Public universities within the state. Several states are quite "thin" when it's looked at that way:

I think there are 53 P5 Publics.

They are split among 35 of the 50 states.

The states with the Lowest Population per Public P5 are:

Kansas 1,470,432 (2,940,864 over 2 schools)
Mississippi 1,481,958 (2,963,916 over 2 schools)
Iowa 1,596,204 (3,192,408 over 2 schools)
West Virginia 1,795,048 (1,795,048 over 1 school)
Nebraska 1,963,332 (1,963,332 over 1 school)
Oklahoma 1,981,758 (3,963,518 over 2 schools)
Oregon 2,120,751 (4,241,502 over 2 schools)
Kentucky 2,254,671 (4,509,342 over 2 schools)
Alabama 2,515,027 (5,030,054 over 2 schools)
South Carolina 2,562,357 (5,124,714 over 2 schools)


I think the greatest budget pressures would come to public P5s located within low population states.

My short list of teams who are going to need to "pay their own way" or go home is:

Kansas State
Iowa State
Oklahoma State
Oregon State
Louisville

I think low population teams in rich media conferences are protected. That's why teams such as Mississippi State are not on my short list.

Also, low population teams coming from states with only one school are protected to some degree. That's why West Virginia and Nebraska don't make my short list.

Louisville would be fine, since unlike most of the schools here, they are in a large enough city that can support them, both from an a attendance and from a corporate standpoint.
Yes, in Louisville's case the shortfalls need to be made up by the corporate donors. But Kentucky's largest publicly listed corporation, Humana, basically makes virtually zero contributions to athletics programs.
04-28-2021 09:31 AM
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IHAVETRIED Offline
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RE: P5 Publics with Smallest State Support
(04-28-2021 09:29 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  
(04-28-2021 08:35 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  The new census data got me thinking. I wonder just how thinly some major P5 Public universities are spread. It's both a market and a budget issue. One way to look at this is to spread out a state's population over the number of P5 Public universities within the state. Several states are quite "thin" when it's looked at that way:

I think there are 53 P5 Publics.

They are split among 35 of the 50 states.

The states with the Lowest Population per Public P5 are:

Kansas 1,470,432 (2,940,864 over 2 schools)
Mississippi 1,481,958 (2,963,916 over 2 schools)
Iowa 1,596,204 (3,192,408 over 2 schools)
West Virginia 1,795,048 (1,795,048 over 1 school)
Nebraska 1,963,332 (1,963,332 over 1 school)
Oklahoma 1,981,758 (3,963,518 over 2 schools)
Oregon 2,120,751 (4,241,502 over 2 schools)
Kentucky 2,254,671 (4,509,342 over 2 schools)
Alabama 2,515,027 (5,030,054 over 2 schools)
South Carolina 2,562,357 (5,124,714 over 2 schools)


I think the greatest budget pressures would come to public P5s located within low population states.

My short list of teams who are going to need to "pay their own way" or go home is:

Kansas State
Iowa State
Oklahoma State
Oregon State
Louisville

I think low population teams in rich media conferences are protected. That's why teams such as Mississippi State are not on my short list.

Also, low population teams coming from states with only one school are protected to some degree. That's why West Virginia and Nebraska don't make my short list.

It's not quite as easy as looking at population if you're talking state financial support (vs. just fan rooting support). Different state's provide different levels of support to athletics. Quick math is North gives more and South gives less, but there are exceptions.
Oh, I agree with that. The way I did it is terribly over-simplified. It only looks at one attribute. And, yes, the northern states normally treat funding of college education a little differently than southern states.
04-28-2021 09:34 AM
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CliftonAve Online
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RE: P5 Publics with Smallest State Support
(04-28-2021 09:31 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  
(04-28-2021 09:22 AM)whittx Wrote:  
(04-28-2021 08:35 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  The new census data got me thinking. I wonder just how thinly some major P5 Public universities are spread. It's both a market and a budget issue. One way to look at this is to spread out a state's population over the number of P5 Public universities within the state. Several states are quite "thin" when it's looked at that way:

I think there are 53 P5 Publics.

They are split among 35 of the 50 states.

The states with the Lowest Population per Public P5 are:

Kansas 1,470,432 (2,940,864 over 2 schools)
Mississippi 1,481,958 (2,963,916 over 2 schools)
Iowa 1,596,204 (3,192,408 over 2 schools)
West Virginia 1,795,048 (1,795,048 over 1 school)
Nebraska 1,963,332 (1,963,332 over 1 school)
Oklahoma 1,981,758 (3,963,518 over 2 schools)
Oregon 2,120,751 (4,241,502 over 2 schools)
Kentucky 2,254,671 (4,509,342 over 2 schools)
Alabama 2,515,027 (5,030,054 over 2 schools)
South Carolina 2,562,357 (5,124,714 over 2 schools)


I think the greatest budget pressures would come to public P5s located within low population states.

My short list of teams who are going to need to "pay their own way" or go home is:

Kansas State
Iowa State
Oklahoma State
Oregon State
Louisville

I think low population teams in rich media conferences are protected. That's why teams such as Mississippi State are not on my short list.

Also, low population teams coming from states with only one school are protected to some degree. That's why West Virginia and Nebraska don't make my short list.

Louisville would be fine, since unlike most of the schools here, they are in a large enough city that can support them, both from an a attendance and from a corporate standpoint.
Yes, in Louisville's case the shortfalls need to be made up by the corporate donors. But Kentucky's largest publicly listed corporation, Humana, basically makes virtually zero contributions to athletics programs.

That’s alright Louisville is getting help from one of Cincinnati’s— Kroger.

Damn haters.
04-28-2021 10:49 AM
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IHAVETRIED Offline
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RE: P5 Publics with Smallest State Support
(04-28-2021 10:49 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(04-28-2021 09:31 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  
(04-28-2021 09:22 AM)whittx Wrote:  
(04-28-2021 08:35 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  The new census data got me thinking. I wonder just how thinly some major P5 Public universities are spread. It's both a market and a budget issue. One way to look at this is to spread out a state's population over the number of P5 Public universities within the state. Several states are quite "thin" when it's looked at that way:

I think there are 53 P5 Publics.

They are split among 35 of the 50 states.

The states with the Lowest Population per Public P5 are:

Kansas 1,470,432 (2,940,864 over 2 schools)
Mississippi 1,481,958 (2,963,916 over 2 schools)
Iowa 1,596,204 (3,192,408 over 2 schools)
West Virginia 1,795,048 (1,795,048 over 1 school)
Nebraska 1,963,332 (1,963,332 over 1 school)
Oklahoma 1,981,758 (3,963,518 over 2 schools)
Oregon 2,120,751 (4,241,502 over 2 schools)
Kentucky 2,254,671 (4,509,342 over 2 schools)
Alabama 2,515,027 (5,030,054 over 2 schools)
South Carolina 2,562,357 (5,124,714 over 2 schools)


I think the greatest budget pressures would come to public P5s located within low population states.

My short list of teams who are going to need to "pay their own way" or go home is:

Kansas State
Iowa State
Oklahoma State
Oregon State
Louisville

I think low population teams in rich media conferences are protected. That's why teams such as Mississippi State are not on my short list.

Also, low population teams coming from states with only one school are protected to some degree. That's why West Virginia and Nebraska don't make my short list.

Louisville would be fine, since unlike most of the schools here, they are in a large enough city that can support them, both from an a attendance and from a corporate standpoint.
Yes, in Louisville's case the shortfalls need to be made up by the corporate donors. But Kentucky's largest publicly listed corporation, Humana, basically makes virtually zero contributions to athletics programs.

That’s alright Louisville is getting help from one of Cincinnati’s— Kroger.

Damn haters.
And we profoundly thank you!01-ncaabbs
(This post was last modified: 04-28-2021 10:59 AM by IHAVETRIED.)
04-28-2021 10:58 AM
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MattBrownEP Offline
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RE: P5 Publics with Smallest State Support
The schools that are going to face these sorts of pressures are not P5s, but the regional public schools that typically dont recruit out of state very much OR have huge corporate boosters.

Louisville will be fine. I'd worry more about an Eastern or a Murray
04-28-2021 11:09 AM
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CliftonAve Online
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RE: P5 Publics with Smallest State Support
(04-28-2021 11:09 AM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  The schools that are going to face these sorts of pressures are not P5s, but the regional public schools that typically dont recruit out of state very much OR have huge corporate boosters.

Louisville will be fine. I'd worry more about an Eastern or a Murray

We have 1-2 of those in Ohio. Also, I think the small private schools with no religious backing and a small endowment are toast as well.
04-28-2021 11:13 AM
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MattBrownEP Offline
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RE: P5 Publics with Smallest State Support
(04-28-2021 11:13 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(04-28-2021 11:09 AM)MattBrownEP Wrote:  The schools that are going to face these sorts of pressures are not P5s, but the regional public schools that typically dont recruit out of state very much OR have huge corporate boosters.

Louisville will be fine. I'd worry more about an Eastern or a Murray

We have 1-2 of those in Ohio. Also, I think the small private schools with no religious backing and a small endowment are toast as well.

Yes, I think Ohio is a great example of a place where we're already seeing lots of smaller college problems. Urbana already closed. Akron and Kent State are in serious trouble. Wright State is facing a financial crisis. And D-III schools that aren't in like, the NCAC, are likely to have enrollment problems in the near future, like their peers are New England are facing right now.
04-28-2021 11:45 AM
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IHAVETRIED Offline
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RE: P5 Publics with Smallest State Support
I don't have any particular concern about Louisville.

But I think all P5's which are "mostly" publicly financed ... and also from small population states... and also don't have super-large media contracts (SEC or Big Ten type contracts) will be under pressure.
04-28-2021 11:56 AM
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RE: P5 Publics with Smallest State Support
Here is a full listing of all the states with P5 Public schools, in order by Population per P5 School, lowest to highest:

The States listed by Lowest Population per Public P5 University:

Kansas 1,470,432 (2,940,864 divided over 2 Public P5 schools)
Mississippi 1,481,958 (2,963,916 over 2 schools)
Iowa 1,596,204 (3,192,408 over 2 schools)
West Virginia 1,795,048 (1,795,048 over 1 school)
Nebraska 1,963,332 (1,963,332 over 1 school)
Oklahoma 1,981,758 (3,963,518 over 2 schools)
Oregon 2,120,751 (4,241,502 over 2 schools)
Kentucky 2,254,671 (4,509,342 over 2 schools)
Alabama 2,515,027 (5,030,054 over 2 schools)
South Carolina 2,562,357 (5,124,714 over 2 schools)
Arkansas 3,013,758 (3,013,758 over 1 school)
Utah 3,275,252 (3,275,252 over 1 school)
Indiana 3,395,142 (6,796,284 over 2 schools)
Arizona 3,579,462 (7,158,964 over 2 schools)
Washington 3,857,975 (7,715,950 over 2 schools)
Virginia 4,327,274 (8,654,548 over 2 schools)
Louisiana 4,661,468 (4,661,468 over 1 school)
Michigan 5,042,220 (10,084,440 over 2 schools)
North Carolina 5,226,978 (10,453,956 over 2 schools)
Georgia 5,362,637 (10,725,274 over 2 schools)
Minnesota 5,709,752 (5,709,752 over 1 school)
Colorado 5,782,168 (5,782,168 over 1 school)
Wisconsin 5,897,472 (5,897,472 over 1 school)
Missouri 6,160,280 (6,160,280 over 1 school)
Maryland 6,185,280 (6,185,280 over 1 school)
Tennessee 6,916,896 (6,916,896 over 1 school)
New Jersey 9,294,492 (9,294,492 over 1 school)
Texas 9,727,760 (29,183,280 over 3 schools)
Florida 10,785,264 (21,570,528 over 2 schools)
Ohio 11,808,859 (11,808,859 over 1 school)
Illinois 12,822,744 (12,822,744 over 1 school)
Pennsylvania 13,011,852 (13,011,852 over 1 school)
California 19,788,366 (39,576,732 over 2 schools)
(This post was last modified: 04-28-2021 12:02 PM by IHAVETRIED.)
04-28-2021 11:59 AM
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