(05-01-2021 10:38 AM)4xGrad Wrote: Danger Will Robinson, Danger.
While I kind of like throwing those thoughts out there to digest and speculate about... Kind of fun, like some of these other people are saying,
I'm glad that you picked up on the fact that this thread was started up mainly to stimulate an interesting/fun conversation that might lead to something positive.
(05-01-2021 10:38 AM)4xGrad Wrote: I know, you are planning to include them, and if they are smart they will participate to help create this scenario, then in 10 years time they just say we are not going to participate any more.
I don't think such an outcome would be very likely, since the proposed tournament would give a number of P5 teams that might not be very likely to play in the CFP a unique and remunerative opportunity to compete in and win an interesting post-season tournament.
The only way the powers-that-be could persuade the tournament-quality P5 teams to reject an invitation to play in an alternative tournament would be to provide them a strong enough reason not to accept an invitation (e.g., by expanding the CFP or by literally paying them not to play in the tournament).*
Option A: They could expand the CFP. However, they probably couldn't do so without opening up the CFP to G5/FBS independent teams,
and that alone might make the alternative tournament a success, since one of its major objectives would be to force the CFP to expand.
--It would be difficult to expand the CFP to 8 teams without opening up the CFP to G5/FBS independents, since any measures blocking G5 teams would constitute a violation of U.S. anti-trust law.
Option B: If they were to simply "pay" the best P5 teams not to participate in the tournament, then the tournament could simply respond by inviting the next best P5 teams to play in the tournament.
--Since there would be at least a dozen P5 teams that could generate high viewership, the tournament could be successful even if the best available P5 teams were to turn down an invitation.
For example:
If the P5 were to literally pay Texas A&M and USC $1 million apiece not to accept an invitation to play in a hypothetical 2020 football tournament, the tournament committee could respond by inviting the next best PAC-12 and Big-12 teams, which would be (#8) Oklahoma and (#25) Oregon.
If Oklahoma were to turn down the invitation to represent the Big 12, then (#12) Iowa State could be invited, followed by (#20) Texas, etc. If no Big 12 teams would accept tournament invitations, then invitations could be sent to (#7) Indiana, (#14) UNC, (#15) Northwestern, etc. until at least two P5 teams would agree to play in the tournament.
At ~ $1 million a pop, the P5 would have to shell out multiple millions of dollars per year to pay off all the schools that would receive invitations to play in the tourney. That would be enough of a sacrifice to discourage them from attempting to pay schools not to play in the tourney.
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*Option B might be not a viable option, since any attempt to drive the football tournament out of business by paying schools not to play would be a prima facie violation of U.S. anti-trust laws.
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In summary,
An alternative post-season football tournament would provide a strong incentive for an expansion of the CFP to at least 8 teams.
Any attempt by the CFP/P5 to bribe, extort or cajole P5 schools into rejecting an invitation to play in an alternative tournament or to expand the CFP without permitting G5/FBS independents to participate could be over-ruled by the courts, since they would violate U.S. anti-trust laws.
Thus, a post-season football tournament could succeed in forcing the CFP to expand and to make provisions enabling non-P5 teams to participate.
Depending on tournament viewership and their level of satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the terms of the expanded CFP, the G5 conferences and FBS independents could decide whether or not to continue to sponsor an annual post-season tournament.
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