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Palatable 8 team all inclusive* playoff idea
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Kit-Cat Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Palatable 8 team all inclusive* playoff idea
(04-26-2021 02:11 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(04-26-2021 02:06 PM)Blue_Trombone Wrote:  A plan without 10 autobids is *not* all inclusive full stop.

How many G5 champs realistically stand a chance at upsetting a top 8 team?

The P5 aren’t going to want these games and neither are the networks because blowouts make for bad tv ratings.

Teams can go hot and cold though.

Ball State is an example of this. They lost their first game of the season to Miami and then ripped off wins in conference play, won the division, won the CCG and then defeated a conference champ in their bowl game. They were just a hot team for a month.

Conference champs have momentum on their side.

A more logical way to include the G5 is if the NYD bowls expanded to 8 or 10 and so in those games they might not even be playing a top 10 team which makes it more winnable and more likely they would be competitive.

Then just take the top 4 after the bowl games. It would give a UC or UCF a shot of making it if they can get it done in their bowl. Also the possibility of an upset by the 1,2,3,4 teams in a bowl game. Rose can go back to B1G-PAC every year with all the extra NYD games.
04-27-2021 09:14 AM
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Kit-Cat Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Palatable 8 team all inclusive* playoff idea
10 bowl/8 team playoff idea.

Teams are all ranked by the CFP and placed into bowl games. All 10 CCG receive a slot and then 10 at-large teams. Bowls make selections on rotation to let everyone get a shot at a P5 participant to sell tickets.

NYD bowls: Rose, Fiesta, Cotton, Sugar, Peach, Orange
New NYD: Vegas, Alamo, Citrus, Gator

The Top 4 after the bowl games then go to the semifinals. Only 10 teams can win their NYD bowl game so it would give theoretically a shot at making the Top 4 cut.

If the SEC and XII split up their champs, with the XII champ going to the Cotton it would increase the chances of their champion winning the bowl and therefore making the cut for 4 team playoff.

A the other end of the spectrum for the MAC champ if picked last might in the Alamo Bowl or Gator Bowl against a 4th place SEC or XII team but its a higher probability of being competitive and winning in that situation. Still would pick up a bonus payout for making the CFP bowl ect.
04-27-2021 09:47 AM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Palatable 8 team all inclusive* playoff idea
(04-27-2021 08:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-27-2021 07:22 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(04-26-2021 09:47 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the main competitive knock against a G5 autobid is that the champ will almost surely not have proven themselves against a top-10 level opponent. P5 are not going to want a G5 team to cruise in to the playoffs having faced nothing but other G5 and maybe some lower-tier P5. No P5 can get in that way.

I dunno, I could see the SEC figuring they'll have the number one seed more often than not and rather face the winner of a Go5 play-in game than a P5 at-large in the quarterfinals. After all, the SEC is a conference that plays the maximum allowed number of FCS games, and not all in September, either, so the SEC is well aware of the prospective advantages.

IMO, the SEC would much prefer a play-in game between the top G5 and the next-best P5, as that next-best P5 could very well be an SEC team. Ditto for the B1G. I think that would outweigh what you are talking about.

I dunno that the SEC's at-large is often going to be last in ... that would be more likely for the Big Ten's at-large.

More than that, I don't know if it will get buy-in from the Go5, which is the point of the whole 5-2-1 exercise relative to 5-3 ... setting up a system where antitrust claims are both weaker and much less likely from a party with standing and getting a block of votes from the Go5 schools and any FCS and NFS schools they have sway with for the addition of a third CFP game to the post-season games allowance within Division 1.
04-27-2021 10:53 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Palatable 8 team all inclusive* playoff idea
With a single G5 spot, the odds are like 60% AAC, 20% MW, 10% SB & MAC. Odds for making a G5 play-in are roughly doubled and then halved again. Who would benefit? I like the idea of “deciding it on the field” but if the odds don’t change and the game won’t pull down P5 level TV ratings, what are you actually gaining by making those teams suit up again?

The winner of such a game may yet be ranked lower than the loser. If they’re adding a round, the G5 would be cutting off their nose if all champs aren’t included in that round (the 10+6 model).
04-27-2021 11:23 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Palatable 8 team all inclusive* playoff idea
(04-27-2021 11:23 PM)Crayton Wrote:  With a single G5 spot, the odds are like 60% AAC, 20% MW, 10% SB & MAC. Odds for making a G5 play-in are roughly doubled and then halved again. Who would benefit? I like the idea of “deciding it on the field” but if the odds don’t change and the game won’t pull down P5 level TV ratings, what are you actually gaining by making those teams suit up again?

As already mentioned, with only two FBS games played on that day, they may well score the best ratings they've had all year, and it will almost certainly be the highest rated game between Go5 schools in the year.

Quote: The winner of such a game may yet be ranked lower than the loser. If they’re adding a round, the G5 would be cutting off their nose if all champs aren’t included in that round (the 10+6 model).
The 10+6 model is adding two rounds. The Go5 "cutting off their nose" presumes that the 10+6 model is achievable in the next step. I don't presume that.
04-28-2021 03:32 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Palatable 8 team all inclusive* playoff idea
(04-27-2021 10:53 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(04-27-2021 08:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-27-2021 07:22 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(04-26-2021 09:47 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the main competitive knock against a G5 autobid is that the champ will almost surely not have proven themselves against a top-10 level opponent. P5 are not going to want a G5 team to cruise in to the playoffs having faced nothing but other G5 and maybe some lower-tier P5. No P5 can get in that way.

I dunno, I could see the SEC figuring they'll have the number one seed more often than not and rather face the winner of a Go5 play-in game than a P5 at-large in the quarterfinals. After all, the SEC is a conference that plays the maximum allowed number of FCS games, and not all in September, either, so the SEC is well aware of the prospective advantages.

IMO, the SEC would much prefer a play-in game between the top G5 and the next-best P5, as that next-best P5 could very well be an SEC team. Ditto for the B1G. I think that would outweigh what you are talking about.

I dunno that the SEC's at-large is often going to be last in ... that would be more likely for the Big Ten's at-large.

More than that, I don't know if it will get buy-in from the Go5, which is the point of the whole 5-2-1 exercise relative to 5-3 ... setting up a system where antitrust claims are both weaker and much less likely from a party with standing and getting a block of votes from the Go5 schools and any FCS and NFS schools they have sway with for the addition of a third CFP game to the post-season games allowance within Division 1.

Well first, yes, the B1G is also very likely to be in that play-in position as well, which could mean the SEC and B1G think similarly about this. That is a formidable combination.

Second, I don't think "buy in" from the G5 matters much. The G5 just doesn't have much power. Also, the G5 would still have a spot in the playoffs, it would just be in a play-in game.

Finally, IMO, the only way to eliminate the legal threat is via straight eight. A 5-1-2 system is very vulnerable because it treats P5 and G5 differently. And IIRC, G5 conference-level buy in would not change that, because individual schools could still sue. E.g., San Jose State could sue even if the MW signs on. Straight eight is the only eight-team system that solves the legal issue, so if that is the big fear among the P5, then straight eight is the obvious choice.
04-28-2021 09:01 AM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Palatable 8 team all inclusive* playoff idea
(04-28-2021 09:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Second, I don't think "buy in" from the G5 matters much. The G5 just doesn't have much power. Also, the G5 would still have a spot in the playoffs, it would just be in a play-in game.

They don't have a lot of power, but they clearly have some leverage, because every time they change the system, the non-power conferences end up with more access.

I doubt it is entirely the legal question. There's also whatever accompanying rule change is required from the NCAA, since a lot of winning an NCAA vote is networking, and taken together there are a lot of personal ties from the Go5 schools if they work together as a group into the FCS and NFS subdivisions.

Quote: Finally, IMO, the only way to eliminate the legal threat is via straight eight. ...
But it's not a dichotomy ... there would be more support from media partners for any P5 champion guaranteed spots, and if that is exposed to greater legal jeopardy in any event, then trade-offs that reduce the risk exposure may well get looked at.

What legal standing San Jose State has to sue if it authorized the conference to negotiate a deal and then the MWC signed on is not something I would know for sure, given that IANDL, but it seems like it would be under more pressure to not sue if most of its conference partners feel like the new arrangement is a win for the MWC.
05-02-2021 04:50 AM
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Post: #68
RE: Palatable 8 team all inclusive* playoff idea
Palatable:

5 P5 conference winners
1 G5 school if it goes undefeated and plays at least 2 P5 opponents and 2 wild cards or 3 wild cards if the first condition is not met.
05-03-2021 07:54 PM
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