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Lunardi early 2022 bracketology
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OldFan Offline
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Lunardi early 2022 bracketology
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/...-men-field

Houston is a #4 seed, Memphis is a #5 seed, and Wichita State is the first team out.
04-20-2021 07:18 AM
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RE: Lunardi early 2022 bracketology
Ah yes, start the pre-season with the designated two-team conference slot. Let's get the bias rolling so conference wins have no upside.
04-20-2021 03:31 PM
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jedclampett Offline
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RE: Lunardi early 2022 bracketology
(04-20-2021 03:31 PM)Atlanta Wrote:  Ah yes, start the pre-season with the designated two-team conference slot. Let's get the bias rolling so conference wins have no upside.

Aye - - the bias is very strong (27 at-large bids going to P5 schools, and only 7 of the first-round at-large slots going to non-P5 schools), and he seems not to have noticed that the teams from P5 schools severely under-performed their seedings in the 2021 NCAA tournament.

.
04-20-2021 04:17 PM
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robertfoshizzle Offline
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RE: Lunardi early 2022 bracketology
ESPN is biased, but this seems fair to me. We were a 2-bid league this year, and aside from the 3 mentioned above, none of our teams are exactly popping off the page as likely at-large teams right now.
04-20-2021 04:25 PM
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Joprior23 Offline
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RE: Lunardi early 2022 bracketology
(04-20-2021 04:25 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  ESPN is biased, but this seems fair to me. We were a 2-bid league this year, and aside from the 3 mentioned above, none of our teams are exactly popping off the page as likely at-large teams right now.

SMU should be if Davis comes back.
04-20-2021 04:52 PM
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Pony94 Online
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Lunardi early 2022 bracketology
(04-20-2021 04:52 PM)Joprior23 Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 04:25 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  ESPN is biased, but this seems fair to me. We were a 2-bid league this year, and aside from the 3 mentioned above, none of our teams are exactly popping off the page as likely at-large teams right now.

SMU should be if Davis comes back.


Our 247 site is saying he’s leaning coming back
04-20-2021 05:17 PM
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RE: Lunardi early 2022 bracketology
(04-20-2021 04:52 PM)Joprior23 Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 04:25 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  ESPN is biased, but this seems fair to me. We were a 2-bid league this year, and aside from the 3 mentioned above, none of our teams are exactly popping off the page as likely at-large teams right now.

SMU should be if Davis comes back.

Is this the main reason for the optimistic outlook for SMU?


George Michalowski - - April 10, 2021

"Duquesne’s leading scorer Marcus Weathers made the decision to transfer to SMU along with his brother Michael.

The 6-foot-5 forward led the Dukes this season with 15.3 points per game and was second on the squad in rebounding, averaging 7.5 per game.

Through all three years with the program he started all but one of those 79 contests.

This will be the second time the two brothers from Overland Park, Kansas will be sharing the floor in their college careers. After graduating from Shawnee Mission North High School as the two leading scorers in school history (Michael first, Marcus second), the Weathers twins went on to play one year together at Miami Ohio. Since then, Marcus has been at Duquesne, and Michael has been to Oklahoma State as well as Texas Southern. Their former coach at Miami Ohio, John Cooper, is now an assistant at SMU.

Michael, a 6-foot-3 guard, averaged 16.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists for Texas Southern. His team won the SWAC conference tournament, earning a bid to the NCAA tournament. There, the Tigers took down Mount St. Marys in the first four and then fell to Michigan in the first round."

.

With these two players, SMU might be better next season, if they haven't lost an equivalent amount of talent. Would like to hear more about their roster.
04-20-2021 07:37 PM
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Joprior23 Offline
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RE: Lunardi early 2022 bracketology
(04-20-2021 07:37 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 04:52 PM)Joprior23 Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 04:25 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  ESPN is biased, but this seems fair to me. We were a 2-bid league this year, and aside from the 3 mentioned above, none of our teams are exactly popping off the page as likely at-large teams right now.

SMU should be if Davis comes back.

Is this the main reason for the optimistic outlook for SMU?


George Michalowski - - April 10, 2021

"Duquesne’s leading scorer Marcus Weathers made the decision to transfer to SMU along with his brother Michael.

The 6-foot-5 forward led the Dukes this season with 15.3 points per game and was second on the squad in rebounding, averaging 7.5 per game.

Through all three years with the program he started all but one of those 79 contests.

This will be the second time the two brothers from Overland Park, Kansas will be sharing the floor in their college careers. After graduating from Shawnee Mission North High School as the two leading scorers in school history (Michael first, Marcus second), the Weathers twins went on to play one year together at Miami Ohio. Since then, Marcus has been at Duquesne, and Michael has been to Oklahoma State as well as Texas Southern. Their former coach at Miami Ohio, John Cooper, is now an assistant at SMU.

Michael, a 6-foot-3 guard, averaged 16.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists for Texas Southern. His team won the SWAC conference tournament, earning a bid to the NCAA tournament. There, the Tigers took down Mount St. Marys in the first four and then fell to Michigan in the first round."

.

With these two players, SMU might be better next season, if they haven't lost an equivalent amount of talent. Would like to hear more about their roster.

I mean. He’s a top 3 player in the conference. They added 3 very good transfers. In the mix for Emanuel Miller. Just picked up a very good high school commitment. And only lost Hunt and Chargois.

Would be pretty hard for Jank to screw this up. They should fall out of bed as a top 30-35 team next season with all of that.
04-20-2021 07:48 PM
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pesik Online
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RE: Lunardi early 2022 bracketology
(04-20-2021 07:37 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  With these two players, SMU might be better next season, if they haven't lost an equivalent amount of talent. Would like to hear more about their roster.

part of the reason, no individual addition they added is he readon for the hype but the sum of the parts

they lost a ton but added a ton more

returnee (of note)
- G kendric davis is supposedly on a lean to return- top 2 favorite for POY
- C Yor Anei- elite level shot blocker (could return)
- G Emmanuel Bandoumel- quality player (2 year starter)- double digit scorer

additions
the 2 you named
- G Marcus Weathers- 2x All-A10
- G Michael Weathers - All-SWAC - lead TSU to a tourney win

the rest
- G Zach Nutall - Southland conference POY
- F Stefan Todorovic - 4* 6'8 elite level sharpshooter

positions 1,2,3 and 5 are probably good enough to make the tourney, even top 25 at those positions...

the 4 leaves alot ot be desired (note stefan supposedly not great on D) ..but could probably try to make small ball work... but note smu has multiple ships left.. and there is currently one mega transfer that has strong ties to SMU in the portal that is an elite PF
04-20-2021 07:57 PM
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RE: Lunardi early 2022 bracketology
(04-20-2021 07:57 PM)pesik Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 07:37 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  With these two players, SMU might be better next season, if they haven't lost an equivalent amount of talent. Would like to hear more about their roster.

part of the reason, no individual addition they added is he readon for the hype but the sum of the parts

they lost a ton but added a ton more

returnee (of note)
- G kendric davis is supposedly on a lean to return- top 2 favorite for POY
- C Yor Anei- elite level shot blocker (could return)
- G Emmanuel Bandoumel- quality player (2 year starter)- double digit scorer

additions
the 2 you named
- G Marcus Weathers- 2x All-A10
- G Michael Weathers - All-SWAC - lead TSU to a tourney win

the rest
- G Zach Nutall - Southland conference POY
- F Stefan Todorovic - 4* 6'8 elite level sharpshooter

positions 1,2,3 and 5 are probably good enough to make the tourney, even top 25 at those positions...

the 4 leaves alot ot be desired (note stefan supposedly not great on D) ..but could probably try to make small ball work... but note smu has multiple ships left.. and there is currently one mega transfer that has strong ties to SMU in the portal that is an elite PF

Sounds like SMU has the potential to be very good if things continue to develop well for them, and that could boost the stature of the conference heading into the post-season.

.
04-20-2021 08:11 PM
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RE: Lunardi early 2022 bracketology
(04-20-2021 07:48 PM)Joprior23 Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 07:37 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 04:52 PM)Joprior23 Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 04:25 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  ESPN is biased, but this seems fair to me. We were a 2-bid league this year, and aside from the 3 mentioned above, none of our teams are exactly popping off the page as likely at-large teams right now.

SMU should be if Davis comes back.

Is this the main reason for the optimistic outlook for SMU?


George Michalowski - - April 10, 2021

"Duquesne’s leading scorer Marcus Weathers made the decision to transfer to SMU along with his brother Michael.

The 6-foot-5 forward led the Dukes this season with 15.3 points per game and was second on the squad in rebounding, averaging 7.5 per game.

Through all three years with the program he started all but one of those 79 contests.

This will be the second time the two brothers from Overland Park, Kansas will be sharing the floor in their college careers. After graduating from Shawnee Mission North High School as the two leading scorers in school history (Michael first, Marcus second), the Weathers twins went on to play one year together at Miami Ohio. Since then, Marcus has been at Duquesne, and Michael has been to Oklahoma State as well as Texas Southern. Their former coach at Miami Ohio, John Cooper, is now an assistant at SMU.

Michael, a 6-foot-3 guard, averaged 16.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists for Texas Southern. His team won the SWAC conference tournament, earning a bid to the NCAA tournament. There, the Tigers took down Mount St. Marys in the first four and then fell to Michigan in the first round."

.

With these two players, SMU might be better next season, if they haven't lost an equivalent amount of talent. Would like to hear more about their roster.

I mean. He’s a top 3 player in the conference. They added 3 very good transfers. In the mix for Emanuel Miller. Just picked up a very good high school commitment. And only lost Hunt and Chargois.

Would be pretty hard for Jank to screw this up. They should fall out of bed as a top 30-35 team next season with all of that.
Never underestimate the power of Jank to underachieve.

Sent from my SM-F916U1 using Tapatalk
04-20-2021 09:12 PM
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Lunardi early 2022 bracketology
(04-20-2021 09:12 PM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 07:48 PM)Joprior23 Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 07:37 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 04:52 PM)Joprior23 Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 04:25 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  ESPN is biased, but this seems fair to me. We were a 2-bid league this year, and aside from the 3 mentioned above, none of our teams are exactly popping off the page as likely at-large teams right now.

SMU should be if Davis comes back.

Is this the main reason for the optimistic outlook for SMU?


George Michalowski - - April 10, 2021

"Duquesne’s leading scorer Marcus Weathers made the decision to transfer to SMU along with his brother Michael.

The 6-foot-5 forward led the Dukes this season with 15.3 points per game and was second on the squad in rebounding, averaging 7.5 per game.

Through all three years with the program he started all but one of those 79 contests.

This will be the second time the two brothers from Overland Park, Kansas will be sharing the floor in their college careers. After graduating from Shawnee Mission North High School as the two leading scorers in school history (Michael first, Marcus second), the Weathers twins went on to play one year together at Miami Ohio. Since then, Marcus has been at Duquesne, and Michael has been to Oklahoma State as well as Texas Southern. Their former coach at Miami Ohio, John Cooper, is now an assistant at SMU.

Michael, a 6-foot-3 guard, averaged 16.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists for Texas Southern. His team won the SWAC conference tournament, earning a bid to the NCAA tournament. There, the Tigers took down Mount St. Marys in the first four and then fell to Michigan in the first round."

.

With these two players, SMU might be better next season, if they haven't lost an equivalent amount of talent. Would like to hear more about their roster.

I mean. He’s a top 3 player in the conference. They added 3 very good transfers. In the mix for Emanuel Miller. Just picked up a very good high school commitment. And only lost Hunt and Chargois.

Would be pretty hard for Jank to screw this up. They should fall out of bed as a top 30-35 team next season with all of that.
Never underestimate the power of Jank to underachieve.

Sent from my SM-F916U1 using Tapatalk


He’s going to kick ass and get hired away. I’m sending good vibes into the void.
04-20-2021 09:25 PM
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RE: Lunardi early 2022 bracketology
(04-20-2021 07:37 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 04:52 PM)Joprior23 Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 04:25 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  ESPN is biased, but this seems fair to me. We were a 2-bid league this year, and aside from the 3 mentioned above, none of our teams are exactly popping off the page as likely at-large teams right now.

SMU should be if Davis comes back.

Is this the main reason for the optimistic outlook for SMU?


George Michalowski - - April 10, 2021

"Duquesne’s leading scorer Marcus Weathers made the decision to transfer to SMU along with his brother Michael.

The 6-foot-5 forward led the Dukes this season with 15.3 points per game and was second on the squad in rebounding, averaging 7.5 per game.

Through all three years with the program he started all but one of those 79 contests.

This will be the second time the two brothers from Overland Park, Kansas will be sharing the floor in their college careers. After graduating from Shawnee Mission North High School as the two leading scorers in school history (Michael first, Marcus second), the Weathers twins went on to play one year together at Miami Ohio. Since then, Marcus has been at Duquesne, and Michael has been to Oklahoma State as well as Texas Southern. Their former coach at Miami Ohio, John Cooper, is now an assistant at SMU.

Michael, a 6-foot-3 guard, averaged 16.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists for Texas Southern. His team won the SWAC conference tournament, earning a bid to the NCAA tournament. There, the Tigers took down Mount St. Marys in the first four and then fell to Michigan in the first round."

.

With these two players, SMU might be better next season, if they haven't lost an equivalent amount of talent. Would like to hear more about their roster.

Our biggest losses were Tyson Jolly, Feron Hunt, and Ethan Chargois. Tyson Jolly did not greatly impact our results this past season due to his personal issues and later COVID-19/health that kept him from playing most of the season. He would have been one of our best 2-3 players if he had returned so he is a big loss in terms of the teams ceiling, not so much in terms of replacing his 2020-21 production. Feron Hunt is a big loss because we don't have very much size returning. He was one of the most athletic bigs SMU has had in the last 30 years, but at times was tough to watch because of his bad habit of shooting 3s! He is something like a 10% 3pt shooter and still jacked up 2-3 every game. Chargois was a big disappointment because he was great as a freshman but never got better. He is still a loss and someone that would start if he withdrew his name from the transfer portal. Darius McNeill and Charles Smith IV were also rotation players we will need to replace in the lineup.

Zach Nutall is the reigning Southland conference player of the year so he should be a solid replacement for Tyson Jolly. Marcus Weathers was a two time all-conference player in the Atlantic 10 so should be more than capable in replacing Feron Hunt. We still need to replace Ethan Chargois at the PF position. If we can land Emanuel Miller, that would be a huge upgrade. The addition of Michael Weathers is equal to or an upgrade over Darius McNeill. Charles Smith IV had the highest 3pt average in the conference last season. While not a huge minutes guy on the team, his production will need to be replaced and today's signing of Stefan Todorovic should more than make up for that. The addition of Zhuric Phelps should help give us some depth at the point guard position which has been sorely lacking the last two seasons if Kendric Davis returns. If KD departs, this team will have an identity crisis. Emmanuel Bandoumel returns and should be a better version of himself. He is a capable rotation player and shines against lesser competition, but completely disappears against the top of this conference. I don't expect much out of Jalen Smith or Darius McBride. Jahmar Young is not a starter on a top AAC team, but will be unless we can sign a top PF like Emanuel Miller.

Still a lot of questions to be answered in order to predict this team's 2021-22 results. This team could range anywhere from borderline NIT to Sweet 16 depending on what happens with KD and the PF position. At least it is one of the most intriguing rosters in the league at this point.
04-20-2021 09:55 PM
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RE: Lunardi early 2022 bracketology
(04-20-2021 09:55 PM)mustangxc Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 07:37 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 04:52 PM)Joprior23 Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 04:25 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  ESPN is biased, but this seems fair to me. We were a 2-bid league this year, and aside from the 3 mentioned above, none of our teams are exactly popping off the page as likely at-large teams right now.

SMU should be if Davis comes back.

Is this the main reason for the optimistic outlook for SMU?


George Michalowski - - April 10, 2021

"Duquesne’s leading scorer Marcus Weathers made the decision to transfer to SMU along with his brother Michael.

The 6-foot-5 forward led the Dukes this season with 15.3 points per game and was second on the squad in rebounding, averaging 7.5 per game.

Through all three years with the program he started all but one of those 79 contests.

This will be the second time the two brothers from Overland Park, Kansas will be sharing the floor in their college careers. After graduating from Shawnee Mission North High School as the two leading scorers in school history (Michael first, Marcus second), the Weathers twins went on to play one year together at Miami Ohio. Since then, Marcus has been at Duquesne, and Michael has been to Oklahoma State as well as Texas Southern. Their former coach at Miami Ohio, John Cooper, is now an assistant at SMU.

Michael, a 6-foot-3 guard, averaged 16.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists for Texas Southern. His team won the SWAC conference tournament, earning a bid to the NCAA tournament. There, the Tigers took down Mount St. Marys in the first four and then fell to Michigan in the first round."

.

With these two players, SMU might be better next season, if they haven't lost an equivalent amount of talent. Would like to hear more about their roster.

Our biggest losses were Tyson Jolly, Feron Hunt, and Ethan Chargois. Tyson Jolly did not greatly impact our results this past season due to his personal issues and later COVID-19/health that kept him from playing most of the season. He would have been one of our best 2-3 players if he had returned so he is a big loss in terms of the teams ceiling, not so much in terms of replacing his 2020-21 production. Feron Hunt is a big loss because we don't have very much size returning. He was one of the most athletic bigs SMU has had in the last 30 years, but at times was tough to watch because of his bad habit of shooting 3s! He is something like a 10% 3pt shooter and still jacked up 2-3 every game. Chargois was a big disappointment because he was great as a freshman but never got better. He is still a loss and someone that would start if he withdrew his name from the transfer portal. Darius McNeill and Charles Smith IV were also rotation players we will need to replace in the lineup.

Zach Nutall is the reigning Southland conference player of the year so he should be a solid replacement for Tyson Jolly. Marcus Weathers was a two time all-conference player in the Atlantic 10 so should be more than capable in replacing Feron Hunt. We still need to replace Ethan Chargois at the PF position. If we can land Emanuel Miller, that would be a huge upgrade. The addition of Michael Weathers is equal to or an upgrade over Darius McNeill. Charles Smith IV had the highest 3pt average in the conference last season. While not a huge minutes guy on the team, his production will need to be replaced and today's signing of Stefan Todorovic should more than make up for that. The addition of Zhuric Phelps should help give us some depth at the point guard position which has been sorely lacking the last two seasons if Kendric Davis returns. If KD departs, this team will have an identity crisis. Emmanuel Bandoumel returns and should be a better version of himself. He is a capable rotation player and shines against lesser competition, but completely disappears against the top of this conference. I don't expect much out of Jalen Smith or Darius McBride. Jahmar Young is not a starter on a top AAC team, but will be unless we can sign a top PF like Emanuel Miller.

Still a lot of questions to be answered in order to predict this team's 2021-22 results. This team could range anywhere from borderline NIT to Sweet 16 depending on what happens with KD and the PF position. At least it is one of the most intriguing rosters in the league at this point.

Totally forgot about Jolly. Since he didn’t play most of the season.
04-20-2021 10:00 PM
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RE: Lunardi early 2022 bracketology
(04-20-2021 05:17 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 04:52 PM)Joprior23 Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 04:25 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  ESPN is biased, but this seems fair to me. We were a 2-bid league this year, and aside from the 3 mentioned above, none of our teams are exactly popping off the page as likely at-large teams right now.

SMU should be if Davis comes back.


Our 247 site is saying he’s leaning coming back

I hate that little ******. He's the best PG in the conference. Memphis is in the FF with him at PG.
04-20-2021 10:14 PM
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jedclampett Offline
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RE: Lunardi early 2022 bracketology
(04-20-2021 09:55 PM)mustangxc Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 07:37 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 04:52 PM)Joprior23 Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 04:25 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  ESPN is biased, but this seems fair to me. We were a 2-bid league this year, and aside from the 3 mentioned above, none of our teams are exactly popping off the page as likely at-large teams right now.

SMU should be if Davis comes back.

Is this the main reason for the optimistic outlook for SMU?


George Michalowski - - April 10, 2021

"Duquesne’s leading scorer Marcus Weathers made the decision to transfer to SMU along with his brother Michael.

The 6-foot-5 forward led the Dukes this season with 15.3 points per game and was second on the squad in rebounding, averaging 7.5 per game.

Through all three years with the program he started all but one of those 79 contests.

This will be the second time the two brothers from Overland Park, Kansas will be sharing the floor in their college careers. After graduating from Shawnee Mission North High School as the two leading scorers in school history (Michael first, Marcus second), the Weathers twins went on to play one year together at Miami Ohio. Since then, Marcus has been at Duquesne, and Michael has been to Oklahoma State as well as Texas Southern. Their former coach at Miami Ohio, John Cooper, is now an assistant at SMU.

Michael, a 6-foot-3 guard, averaged 16.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists for Texas Southern. His team won the SWAC conference tournament, earning a bid to the NCAA tournament. There, the Tigers took down Mount St. Marys in the first four and then fell to Michigan in the first round."

.

With these two players, SMU might be better next season, if they haven't lost an equivalent amount of talent. Would like to hear more about their roster.

Our biggest losses were Tyson Jolly, Feron Hunt, and Ethan Chargois. Tyson Jolly did not greatly impact our results this past season due to his personal issues and later COVID-19/health that kept him from playing most of the season. He would have been one of our best 2-3 players if he had returned so he is a big loss in terms of the teams ceiling, not so much in terms of replacing his 2020-21 production. Feron Hunt is a big loss because we don't have very much size returning. He was one of the most athletic bigs SMU has had in the last 30 years, but at times was tough to watch because of his bad habit of shooting 3s! He is something like a 10% 3pt shooter and still jacked up 2-3 every game. Chargois was a big disappointment because he was great as a freshman but never got better. He is still a loss and someone that would start if he withdrew his name from the transfer portal. Darius McNeill and Charles Smith IV were also rotation players we will need to replace in the lineup.

Zach Nutall is the reigning Southland conference player of the year so he should be a solid replacement for Tyson Jolly. Marcus Weathers was a two time all-conference player in the Atlantic 10 so should be more than capable in replacing Feron Hunt. We still need to replace Ethan Chargois at the PF position. If we can land Emanuel Miller, that would be a huge upgrade. The addition of Michael Weathers is equal to or an upgrade over Darius McNeill. Charles Smith IV had the highest 3pt average in the conference last season. While not a huge minutes guy on the team, his production will need to be replaced and today's signing of Stefan Todorovic should more than make up for that. The addition of Zhuric Phelps should help give us some depth at the point guard position which has been sorely lacking the last two seasons if Kendric Davis returns. If KD departs, this team will have an identity crisis. Emmanuel Bandoumel returns and should be a better version of himself. He is a capable rotation player and shines against lesser competition, but completely disappears against the top of this conference. I don't expect much out of Jalen Smith or Darius McBride. Jahmar Young is not a starter on a top AAC team, but will be unless we can sign a top PF like Emanuel Miller.

Still a lot of questions to be answered in order to predict this team's 2021-22 results. This team could range anywhere from borderline NIT to Sweet 16 depending on what happens with KD and the PF position. At least it is one of the most intriguing rosters in the league at this point.

Very informative - thanks.
04-20-2021 11:40 PM
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Atlanta Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Lunardi early 2022 bracketology
(04-20-2021 04:25 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  ESPN is biased, but this seems fair to me. We were a 2-bid league this year, and aside from the 3 mentioned above, none of our teams are exactly popping off the page as likely at-large teams right now.

It only seems fair if you buy into the bias. There was absolutely no rationale to justify 9 B1G tourney invites aside from in-conference games - none. And Lunardi, ESPN etc, now perpetuate the same BS that was proven wrong thru the tourney play (same for the ACC) with no rational basis. The AAC gets no benefit for in-conference wins & that will perpetuate a 2-bid AAC unless one of our school's has a spectacular OOC record against B1G, ACC, B12 &/or SEC schools. For those schools the plan is simple don't play anyone OOC that can beat you & play .500 in-conference for a guaranteed bid.
(This post was last modified: 04-21-2021 10:19 AM by Atlanta.)
04-21-2021 10:16 AM
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jedclampett Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Lunardi early 2022 bracketology
(04-21-2021 10:16 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 04:25 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  ESPN is biased, but this seems fair to me. We were a 2-bid league this year, and aside from the 3 mentioned above, none of our teams are exactly popping off the page as likely at-large teams right now.

It only seems fair if you buy into the bias. There was absolutely no rationale to justify 9 B1G tourney invites aside from in-conference games - none. And Lunardi, ESPN etc, now perpetuate the same BS that was proven wrong thru the tourney play (same for the ACC) with no rational basis. The AAC gets no benefit for in-conference wins & that will perpetuate a 2-bid AAC unless one of our school's has a spectacular OOC record against B1G, ACC, B12 &/or SEC schools.

.

Correct. The sports writers who prepare their rankings and bracketologies keep on making the same mistake, year after year, whether it's for football or basketball.

As they seem to see it, their job during the preseason is to predict what the team's rankings will be in the early weeks of the the next season, rather than predicting which teams will actually be best during the next season. They're able to get away with it because there is such a high degree of "groupthink" and pro-P5 bias that it's not difficult to predict which teams will be highly ranked.

An example from college football:

.............Number of non-P5 teams listed in Top 25

.............Preseason AP Top 25.......Final AP Top 25.........Error Margin

2016..........0 non-P5 teams..........3 non-P5 teams.......3 non-P5 teams

2017..........1 non-P5 team............4 non-P5 teams.......3 non-P5 teams

2018..........2 non-P5 teams...........6 non-P5 teams.......4 non-P5 teams

2019..........1 non-P5 teams...........7 non-P5 teams.......6 non-P5 teams

2020..........2 non-P5 teams...........8 non-P5 teams.......6 non-P5 teams


Notice anything? The forecasters haven't gotten any better at predicting how many non-P5 teams will end up in the Final AP Top 25.

To the contrary, they have gotten much worse!

Specifically, their estimates of the number of non-P5 teams that would end up in the Final AP Top 25 have become 100% less accurate since 2016.

In other words, they underestimated the number of non-P5 teams in the Final AP Top 25 by 3 in 2016 and 2017, but by 6 in 2019 and 2020, a 100% increase in their inaccuracy rate.

.

In other words, they're not only biased - - they're so biased that they have stubbornly refused to accept the fact that more and more non-P5 teams are ending up in the Final AP Top 25 lists in recent years!

What we've been seeing with the basketball rankings, seedings, and bracketologies is part of the same phenomenon. The bias is pervasive and comprehensive - - not sport-specific.

,
(This post was last modified: 04-22-2021 09:34 PM by jedclampett.)
04-22-2021 09:29 PM
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macgar32 Offline
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Post: #19
RE: Lunardi early 2022 bracketology
(04-20-2021 03:31 PM)Atlanta Wrote:  Ah yes, start the pre-season with the designated two-team conference slot. Let's get the bias rolling so conference wins have no upside.

Lol...

If this league would quit crapping the bed OOC (including Memphis) then in league games would matter. We cant blame ESPN for that
04-23-2021 09:14 PM
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jedclampett Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Lunardi early 2022 bracketology
(04-23-2021 09:14 PM)macgar32 Wrote:  
(04-20-2021 03:31 PM)Atlanta Wrote:  Ah yes, start the pre-season with the designated two-team conference slot. Let's get the bias rolling so conference wins have no upside.

Lol...

If this league would quit crapping the bed OOC (including Memphis) then in league games would matter. We cant blame ESPN for that

You've missed the point, which is that the pre-season rankings and pre-tournament seedings have systematically overestimated the quality of the ranked and seeded P5 teams, while systematically underestimating the quality of the ranked/unranked and seeded/unseeded non-P5 teams.

This has been a pervasive, persistent, and growing problem since the P5 came into existence.

For example:

........Number of non-P5 FB teams listed in the AP Top 25

.............Preseason AP Top 25.......Final AP Top 25..........Error Margin


2013..........1 non-P5 team............1 non-P5 teams........0 non-P5 teams

2014..........0 non-P5 teams...........3 non-P5 teams.......3 non-P5 teams

2015..........1 non-P5 teams...........3 non-P5 teams.......2 non-P5 teams

2016..........0 non-P5 teams..........3 non-P5 teams........3 non-P5 teams

2017..........1 non-P5 team............4 non-P5 teams........3 non-P5 teams

2018..........2 non-P5 teams...........6 non-P5 teams.......4 non-P5 teams

2019..........1 non-P5 teams...........7 non-P5 teams.......6 non-P5 teams

2020..........2 non-P5 teams...........8 non-P5 teams.......6 non-P5 teams


What the data in this table show is that, as a group, the sports journalists that vote in the pre-season football AP poll have been getting worse and worse at predicting how many non-P5 teams there would be in the final AP top 25 poll.

They have only increased the number of non-P5 teams in the pre-season polls very slightly since 2013, and their pre-season rankings suggest that they failed to take any notice of the fact that the number of non-P5 teams in the Final AP Top 25 increased seven-fold (i.e., by 600%) between 2013 and 2019.

.

Moreover, the claim that the AAC has had a "bad" OOC record is inaccurate. If it had, it wouldn't be the #6 FBS conference and the #7 D1 MBB conference.
(This post was last modified: 04-24-2021 01:33 PM by jedclampett.)
04-24-2021 01:14 PM
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