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AAC at a crossroads: "We’re trying to figure out what our strategy is going to be."
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Shox Offline
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Post: #21
RE: AAC at a crossroads: "We’re trying to figure out what our strategy is going ...
Boise, CSU, and AFA matched with Dayton. At that point we and ESPN will hopefully be able to say to BYU that if you join, the AAC gets the last auto-bid to an 8 team playoff which is an offer they can't turn down.
04-17-2021 11:27 AM
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geosnooker2000 Offline
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Post: #22
RE: AAC at a crossroads: "We’re trying to figure out what our strategy is going ...
(04-17-2021 11:27 AM)Shox Wrote:  Boise, CSU, and AFA matched with Dayton. At that point we and ESPN will hopefully be able to say to BYU that if you join, the AAC gets the last auto-bid to an 8 team playoff which is an offer they can't turn down.

If you want BYU after the first part, you either have to add another WITH BYU, or drop one from the first part. We need to add an odd number to get back to even divisions because we stand at 11 right now.
04-17-2021 01:38 PM
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Attackcoog Online
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Post: #23
RE: AAC at a crossroads: "We’re trying to figure out what our strategy is going ...
(04-17-2021 08:56 AM)HoustonRocks Wrote:  If becoming P6 means a major bowl and revenue > $20 M, it's never going to happen.

What the AAC and its members should do are things that are possible including getting more money for each school. There are ways of doing that. Additions are not one of them.

There are maybe one or two schools that might affect income of AAC schools, but no such school is joining. If Gonzaga joined it might affect revenue of existing schools, but that assumes it would continue high level performance and not negatively affect existing schools. Memphis might have been invited to the NCAAT in 2021 if WSU had not joined. WSU will be positive long term, but it is not all joy.

The AAC and its members cannot do anything to achieve >= $20 M per school. There are steps that can raise viewership and associated revenue by a few million per school. Incidentally, those steps would make the AAC more appealing to potential additions.

I think both are possible---(major bowl and 20million per school earnings)---but probably not in the traditional way.

If we are going to wait for a major bowl committee to say---"The hell with the 5th place SEC team---we want the AAC champ!"----then yes---we will never get a major bowl game. We ned to think differently.
Ive long thought that we, as a conference, should be putting aside the "performance money" we get from the CFP in order to build a fund we can use to create our own high paying champions bowl. This "performance money" is a fund of about 19 million that each year awards 5/15's of the fund to the top G5 conference, 4/15's of the fund to the second place G5 conference, 3/15's of the fund to the third place G5 conference (and so on). This is money you really can't count on---so anything above a last place finish is kinda found money. If we simply assume we finished third every year (when we generally finish first), we could set aside about 2.5 million most years. In the 5 years until the next bowl cycle negotiation---we would have around 12.5 million to start up a new bowl with a payout large enough to attract a high ranking P5 member as an opponent. And with that---you are now a conference with a true high end anchor bowl.

Frankly, I see no reason why such a bowl would not be profitable. So, once it begins operation---I would think it would at least break even. In fact---I suspect it would actually spin off a few dollars each year to the conference---which would end the need for the conference to continue contributing "performance money" to the bowl fund.

As for getting to 20 million per team TV deal---we just need to keep growing. I'd add VCU to improve basketball. No reason we cant approach Big East value for our basketball product. That will contribute towards us to getting to 20 million a team. Football needs to also keep improving. We need to build football attendance to an AAC average of 40K a game. When we get to 40K a game---the networks will perceive the overall AAC football fan base as simply too big to ignore. We will be included in the CFP and we will see the value of our football package reach the lower end of "power conference" range at that point. To improve both basketball and football in an efficient manner---we may have to expand into a larger footprint that a traditional conference and we may have to construct the conference in a more piece meal fashion than traditionally utilized (yes---the hybrid model). The point being---you cant use the same strategies the current P5 conferences used to build their leagues because the idea of using large enrollment flagship universities with reasonable tight geography simply isnt a viable option for us given the pieces left to build with. Given whats left on the board---we're going to have to be forced to do some things differently if we are going to reach power status. To a degree, we are going to have to be the MacGyver Conference.
(This post was last modified: 04-17-2021 03:18 PM by Attackcoog.)
04-17-2021 03:02 PM
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Steel Dragon Offline
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Post: #24
RE: AAC at a crossroads: "We’re trying to figure out what our strategy is going ...
As a UAB fan what team’s would you consider for expansion.
04-17-2021 03:17 PM
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Fishpro10987 Offline
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Post: #25
RE: AAC at a crossroads: "We’re trying to figure out what our strategy is going ...
(04-17-2021 03:17 PM)Steel Dragon Wrote:  As a UAB fan what team’s would you consider for expansion.

https://csnbbs.com/thread-913438.html
04-17-2021 04:12 PM
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Post: #26
AAC at a crossroads: "We’re trying to figure out what our strategy is going to be."
Aresco has big moves coming.The AAC is going to continue to be on the rise. I cannot get into specifics but what I can say is that the Big East will be worse off after this move is made. Aresco is playing chess while so many others just keep playing checkers. Updates to come #AAC

https://twitter.com/johnwalltx/status/13...50659?s=21
04-17-2021 06:35 PM
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Post: #27
RE: AAC at a crossroads: "We’re trying to figure out what our strategy is going ...
(04-17-2021 06:35 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  Aresco has big moves coming.The AAC is going to continue to be on the rise. I cannot get into specifics but what I can say is that the Big East will be worse off after this move is made. Aresco is playing chess while so many others just keep playing checkers. Updates to come #AAC

https://twitter.com/johnwalltx/status/13...50659?s=21

P6 Baby!!!!!

BTW, who is John Wall?
04-17-2021 08:00 PM
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Post: #28
RE: AAC at a crossroads: "We’re trying to figure out what our strategy is going ...
I don't know any thing about John Wall but his comments about UCF
were classless. UCF was not the subject at the time. This jerk seems to have problems.
04-17-2021 11:00 PM
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Attackcoog Online
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Post: #29
RE: AAC at a crossroads: "We’re trying to figure out what our strategy is going ...
(04-17-2021 11:00 PM)HoustonRocks Wrote:  I don't know any thing about John Wall but his comments about UCF
were classless. UCF was not the subject at the time. This jerk seems to have problems.

He is a self described "Aresco fan"....Well, either he's the drunkest guy at the bar or something nuts is coming....here are two more tweets from tonight.



John Wall (Jason Garrett Fan Page)
@JohnWallTX
Is the Big East commissioner asleep at the wheel? I feel like this move was too easy for Aresco. Either way the big East commissioner was completely negligent.

Watch the headlines on ESPN this week. The AAC is on the rise. Big East is either incompetent or lazy. #AAC



John Wall (Jason Garrett Fan Page)
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The Big East commissioner, who ever it is. I dont know their name. Missed out big. Not sure if it was an obvious mistake or if Aresco made a brilliant move. Regardless, dark days are coming for the Big East. Aresco buried them. He put on an absolute clinic on running a conference
(This post was last modified: 04-17-2021 11:12 PM by Attackcoog.)
04-17-2021 11:06 PM
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Fishpro10987 Offline
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Post: #30
RE: AAC at a crossroads: "We’re trying to figure out what our strategy is going ...
(04-17-2021 11:06 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(04-17-2021 11:00 PM)HoustonRocks Wrote:  I don't know any thing about John Wall but his comments about UCF
were classless. UCF was not the subject at the time. This jerk seems to have problems.

He is a self described "Aresco fan"....Well, either he's the drunkest guy at the bar or something nuts is coming....here are two more tweets from tonight.



John Wall (Jason Garrett Fan Page)
@JohnWallTX
Is the Big East commissioner asleep at the wheel? I feel like this move was too easy for Aresco. Either way the big East commissioner was completely negligent.

Watch the headlines on ESPN this week. The AAC is on the rise. Big East is either incompetent or lazy. #AAC



John Wall (Jason Garrett Fan Page)
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The Big East commissioner, who ever it is. I dont know their name. Missed out big. Not sure if it was an obvious mistake or if Aresco made a brilliant move. Regardless, dark days are coming for the Big East. Aresco buried them. He put on an absolute clinic on running a conference

Do you suppose Covid restrictions have sent this guy over the edge? How do you tweet like that without knowing who the BE commissioner is? How would this guy even be eligible for a scoop? Gone crazy is my explanation.
04-17-2021 11:29 PM
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Attackcoog Online
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Post: #31
RE: AAC at a crossroads: "We’re trying to figure out what our strategy is going ...
(04-17-2021 11:29 PM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  
(04-17-2021 11:06 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(04-17-2021 11:00 PM)HoustonRocks Wrote:  I don't know any thing about John Wall but his comments about UCF
were classless. UCF was not the subject at the time. This jerk seems to have problems.

He is a self described "Aresco fan"....Well, either he's the drunkest guy at the bar or something nuts is coming....here are two more tweets from tonight.



John Wall (Jason Garrett Fan Page)
@JohnWallTX
Is the Big East commissioner asleep at the wheel? I feel like this move was too easy for Aresco. Either way the big East commissioner was completely negligent.

Watch the headlines on ESPN this week. The AAC is on the rise. Big East is either incompetent or lazy. #AAC



John Wall (Jason Garrett Fan Page)
@JohnWallTX
·
15h
The Big East commissioner, who ever it is. I dont know their name. Missed out big. Not sure if it was an obvious mistake or if Aresco made a brilliant move. Regardless, dark days are coming for the Big East. Aresco buried them. He put on an absolute clinic on running a conference

Do you suppose Covid restrictions have sent this guy over the edge? How do you tweet like that without knowing who the BE commissioner is? How would this guy even be eligible for a scoop? Gone crazy is my explanation.

Lol. Just keep in mind the guy has all of 125 followers. But if I remember correctly—a nobody poster on the UConn Boneyard board was the first early public leak of the UConn returning to the Big East story in 2019----and if Im pretty sure some small obscure no name web site called "Digital Sport Desk" was the first actual "news" outlet to break the UConn to the Big East story. I remember looking at the sourcing and being incredibly skeptical. I honestly figured those sources were just reporting wishful fantasy rumors. Anyway---just goes to show you can never really know for sure.
(This post was last modified: 04-18-2021 12:59 AM by Attackcoog.)
04-18-2021 12:38 AM
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Pony94 Online
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Post: #32
AAC at a crossroads: "We’re trying to figure out what our strategy is going to be."
(04-18-2021 12:38 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(04-17-2021 11:29 PM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  
(04-17-2021 11:06 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(04-17-2021 11:00 PM)HoustonRocks Wrote:  I don't know any thing about John Wall but his comments about UCF
were classless. UCF was not the subject at the time. This jerk seems to have problems.

He is a self described "Aresco fan"....Well, either he's the drunkest guy at the bar or something nuts is coming....here are two more tweets from tonight.



John Wall (Jason Garrett Fan Page)
@JohnWallTX
Is the Big East commissioner asleep at the wheel? I feel like this move was too easy for Aresco. Either way the big East commissioner was completely negligent.

Watch the headlines on ESPN this week. The AAC is on the rise. Big East is either incompetent or lazy. #AAC



John Wall (Jason Garrett Fan Page)
@JohnWallTX
·
15h
The Big East commissioner, who ever it is. I dont know their name. Missed out big. Not sure if it was an obvious mistake or if Aresco made a brilliant move. Regardless, dark days are coming for the Big East. Aresco buried them. He put on an absolute clinic on running a conference

Do you suppose Covid restrictions have sent this guy over the edge? How do you tweet like that without knowing who the BE commissioner is? How would this guy even be eligible for a scoop? Gone crazy is my explanation.

Lol. Just keep in mind the guy has all of 125 followers. But if I remember correctly—a nobody poster on the UConn Boneyard board was the first early public leak of the UConn returning to the Big East story in 2019----and if I remember right—some small obscure no name web site called "Digital Sport Desk" was the first actual "news" outlet to break the UConn to the Big East story. I remember being very skeptical and thinking those sources were completely full of it. Just goes to show you can never really know for sure.


Spoof account for the Cowboys coach has to have inside info
04-18-2021 12:55 AM
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panite Offline
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Post: #33
RE: AAC at a crossroads: "We’re trying to figure out what our strategy is going ...
The AAC will always be at a crossroad as a P6 "TWEENER" conference between the G4 and P5 conferences. Not bad but yet not good. The AAC as a P6 will be held in higher regard than the G4 conferences but will never be accepted as a P5 equal and be looked down on by the P5 conferences. 07-coffee3
(This post was last modified: 04-18-2021 12:11 PM by panite.)
04-18-2021 12:07 PM
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Post: #34
RE: AAC at a crossroads: "We’re trying to figure out what our strategy is going ...
Not a frequent poster, but a fairly dedicated lurker. This background is to state that like many of you, I have watched or listened to most of the Aresco public comments regarding the conference since its inception.

I think that when Aresco was referring to "strategy," he was referring to one or both of two things:

1. How does the AAC get an automatic bid in an expanded college football play-off or otherwise most advantage itself in an expanded play-off scenario.

2. How does the AAC become the sixth autonomy conference (which isn't necessarily the same as being the sixth "power" conference).

Each of these two things is separate and each requires (potentially) a different strategy to accomplish. While adding one or more strong football teams might facilitate the first of these two strategies, it would only be one small piece of the strategy. Moreover, it would likely have no impact on the second of these strategies.

If my thoughts are correct, other than talking about expansion, which this board does non-stop, I'm not sure any of us is close enough to the situation to offer constructive advice. As to the first strategy, we would have to know commissioner/president/AD sentiment and vote counts for various competing expansion plans and be able to tally this sentiment and vote counts to see if there is a path forward. In this vein of thought, someone might volunteer that the PAC 12 would likely be a definite proponent of expansion, but not necessarily of an AAC auto-bid. And after a few more of these generalized comments, we would likely run out of material to discuss.

For the second, we would have to know the same, plus the inner workings of the NCAA on submitting a proposal to change the legislative status of a conference from non-autonomous to autonomous. If this second strategy were easy, the conference would have done it already.
04-18-2021 12:59 PM
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quo vadis Online
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RE: AAC at a crossroads: "We’re trying to figure out what our strategy is going ...
(04-16-2021 04:42 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  This will clarify why the AAC needs to add another good football school to achieve football power conference and "autonomy" status:

The P5 conferences have had an average of 3.6 football teams per conference in the Final AP Top 25 in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

In comparison, the AAC has only had an average of 2.33 football teams in the Final AP Top 25 over the past three seasons.


Moreover, three G5 conferences and the small group of FB independents had as many or more teams in the Final Top 25 than the AAC had in 2020.

Aresco wants the AAC out of the "G" group. That's nice, but it's easier to make the case that the AAC doesn't belong in the "G" group than to make the case it belongs in the "A/P" group. And that's the real issue.

What the AAC has done is establish itself as an overall "tweener" kind of football league. But, one that is closer to the other G5 than the P5. In the seven years of the CFP, the AAC has finished ahead of a single P5 conference one time, and by the smallest of margins. In contrast, the AAC has twice finished behind other G5 conferences, and by larger margins. And in reality, it's likely they finished second among G5 conferences in 2020 as well, as the Sun Belt seems to have had a better season, though with wonky computers due to poor datasets we'll never know for sure.

Aresco is pushing for all the right things, but he's been arguing for 8 years that we don't belong in the "G" group and nothing has come of it.
(This post was last modified: 04-18-2021 01:46 PM by quo vadis.)
04-18-2021 01:26 PM
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vick mike Offline
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Post: #36
RE: AAC at a crossroads: "We’re trying to figure out what our strategy is going ...
(04-18-2021 12:59 PM)hammannja Wrote:  Not a frequent poster, but a fairly dedicated lurker. This background is to state that like many of you, I have watched or listened to most of the Aresco public comments regarding the conference since its inception.

I think that when Aresco was referring to "strategy," he was referring to one or both of two things:

1. How does the AAC get an automatic bid in an expanded college football play-off or otherwise most advantage itself in an expanded play-off scenario.

2. How does the AAC become the sixth autonomy conference (which isn't necessarily the same as being the sixth "power" conference).

Each of these two things is separate and each requires (potentially) a different strategy to accomplish. While adding one or more strong football teams might facilitate the first of these two strategies, it would only be one small piece of the strategy. Moreover, it would likely have no impact on the second of these strategies.

If my thoughts are correct, other than talking about expansion, which this board does non-stop, I'm not sure any of us is close enough to the situation to offer constructive advice. As to the first strategy, we would have to know commissioner/president/AD sentiment and vote counts for various competing expansion plans and be able to tally this sentiment and vote counts to see if there is a path forward. In this vein of thought, someone might volunteer that the PAC 12 would likely be a definite proponent of expansion, but not necessarily of an AAC auto-bid. And after a few more of these generalized comments, we would likely run out of material to discuss.

For the second, we would have to know the same, plus the inner workings of the NCAA on submitting a proposal to change the legislative status of a conference from non-autonomous to autonomous. If this second strategy were easy, the conference would have done it already.

Well stated. Post more.
04-18-2021 02:14 PM
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Attackcoog Online
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Post: #37
RE: AAC at a crossroads: "We’re trying to figure out what our strategy is going ...
(04-18-2021 01:26 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-16-2021 04:42 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  This will clarify why the AAC needs to add another good football school to achieve football power conference and "autonomy" status:

The P5 conferences have had an average of 3.6 football teams per conference in the Final AP Top 25 in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

In comparison, the AAC has only had an average of 2.33 football teams in the Final AP Top 25 over the past three seasons.


Moreover, three G5 conferences and the small group of FB independents had as many or more teams in the Final Top 25 than the AAC had in 2020.

Aresco wants the AAC out of the "G" group. That's nice, but it's easier to make the case that the AAC doesn't belong in the "G" group than to make the case it belongs in the "A/P" group. And that's the real issue.

What the AAC has done is establish itself as an overall "tweener" kind of football league. But, one that is closer to the other G5 than the P5. In the seven years of the CFP, the AAC has finished ahead of a single P5 conference one time, and by the smallest of margins. In contrast, the AAC has twice finished behind other G5 conferences, and by larger margins. And in reality, it's likely they finished second among G5 conferences in 2020 as well, as the Sun Belt seems to have had a better season, though with wonky computers due to poor datasets we'll never know for sure.

Aresco is pushing for all the right things, but he's been arguing for 8 years that we don't belong in the "G" group and nothing has come of it.

I think thats an excellent point. Its also one that should not be overlooked. The first step in moving toward P6 status is to break away from boat anchor G5 perception. In terms of perception---I think we are moving toward BYU "tweener" territory. Thats measurable progress. Also---I doubt the AAC finished second in 2020. That said, I wouldnt be surprised if the Sunbelt finishes ahead of the MW.
04-18-2021 02:30 PM
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Post: #38
RE: AAC at a crossroads: "We’re trying to figure out what our strategy is going ...
(04-18-2021 01:26 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-16-2021 04:42 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  This will clarify why the AAC needs to add another good football school to achieve football power conference and "autonomy" status:

The P5 conferences have had an average of 3.6 football teams per conference in the Final AP Top 25 in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

In comparison, the AAC has only had an average of 2.33 football teams in the Final AP Top 25 over the past three seasons.


Moreover, three G5 conferences and the small group of FB independents had as many or more teams in the Final Top 25 than the AAC had in 2020.

Aresco wants the AAC out of the "G" group. That's nice, but it's easier to make the case that the AAC doesn't belong in the "G" group than to make the case it belongs in the "A/P" group. And that's the real issue.

What the AAC has done is establish itself as an overall "tweener" kind of football league. But, one that is closer to the other G5 than the P5. In the seven years of the CFP, the AAC has finished ahead of a single P5 conference one time, and by the smallest of margins. In contrast, the AAC has twice finished behind other G5 conferences, and by larger margins. And in reality, it's likely they finished second among G5 conferences in 2020 as well, as the Sun Belt seems to have had a better season, though with wonky computers due to poor datasets we'll never know for sure.

Aresco is pushing for all the right things, but he's been arguing for 8 years that we don't belong in the "G" group and nothing has come of it.

Have any other "G" conferences finished ahead of any p5 conferences? And the two times we didn't finish at the top of the G conferences, was that behind the same G conference both times?
(This post was last modified: 04-18-2021 03:13 PM by geosnooker2000.)
04-18-2021 03:12 PM
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vick mike Offline
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Post: #39
RE: AAC at a crossroads: "We’re trying to figure out what our strategy is going ...
A dozen European soccer clubs from the English, Spanish and Italian top soccer leagues are planning to start their own “super league”. This includes the very best and well known clubs. Why, vick mike, are you posting this in an expansion thread and not the soccer thread? Because of its potential relevance to college football. There have been stories of a split from the NCAA, where the P5 break off and form their own league. But would they take their own dead weight? Or would they try to create a super college football league of the top 30 or 40 schools? Who would make it to this super league? Would they pay their players? Would any American teams be eligible?
04-18-2021 04:04 PM
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RE: AAC at a crossroads: "We’re trying to figure out what our strategy is going ...
(04-18-2021 03:12 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  
(04-18-2021 01:26 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(04-16-2021 04:42 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  This will clarify why the AAC needs to add another good football school to achieve football power conference and "autonomy" status:

The P5 conferences have had an average of 3.6 football teams per conference in the Final AP Top 25 in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

In comparison, the AAC has only had an average of 2.33 football teams in the Final AP Top 25 over the past three seasons.


Moreover, three G5 conferences and the small group of FB independents had as many or more teams in the Final Top 25 than the AAC had in 2020.

Aresco wants the AAC out of the "G" group. That's nice, but it's easier to make the case that the AAC doesn't belong in the "G" group than to make the case it belongs in the "A/P" group. And that's the real issue.

What the AAC has done is establish itself as an overall "tweener" kind of football league. But, one that is closer to the other G5 than the P5. In the seven years of the CFP, the AAC has finished ahead of a single P5 conference one time, and by the smallest of margins. In contrast, the AAC has twice finished behind other G5 conferences, and by larger margins. And in reality, it's likely they finished second among G5 conferences in 2020 as well, as the Sun Belt seems to have had a better season, though with wonky computers due to poor datasets we'll never know for sure.

Aresco is pushing for all the right things, but he's been arguing for 8 years that we don't belong in the "G" group and nothing has come of it.

Have any other "G" conferences finished ahead of any p5 conferences? And the two times we didn't finish at the top of the G conferences, was that behind the same G conference both times?

Pulling this attachment in from another thread.

Trend closer to the contract-bowl-conferences
Trend of separation from the four non-contract-bowl conferences (even in the face of outlier good years from mwc or SunBelt.

https://csnbbs.com/thread-920605-post-17...id17385255


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.png  AAC relative Massey Composite-trendlines.PNG (Size: 31.23 KB / Downloads: 9)
04-18-2021 04:19 PM
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