Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
Increasing numbers of ranked non-P5 FB teams - a threat to the AAC's P6 aspirations?
Author Message
jedclampett Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,369
Joined: Jul 2019
Reputation: 144
I Root For: Temple
Location:
Post: #1
Exclamation Increasing numbers of ranked non-P5 FB teams - a threat to the AAC's P6 aspirations?
.

More and more non-P5 FB teams have been listed in the Final AP Top 25 lists in recent years.


....................# of non-P5 FB teams in Final AP Top 25:

2020..............8 (1 AAC, 2 SBC, 2 IND, 2 MAC, 1 MWC)

2019..............7 (4 AAC, 1 SBC, 2 MWC)

2018..............6 (2 AAC, 3 MWC, 1 IND)

2017..............4 (3 AAC, 1 MWC)

2016..............3 (1 AAC, 1 MWC, 1 MAC)

2015..............3 (2 AAC, 1 CUSA)

2014..............3 (1 AAC, 1 MWC, 1 CUSA)

......................................................................................................

Between 2014 and 2019, half of the non-P5 FB teams in the Final AP Top 25 were AAC teams:

2015-2019.....26 (13 AAC, 8 MWC, 2 CUSA, 1 SBC, 1 IND, 1 MAC).

.

However, there was a marked reversal of this trend in 2020, with 7 of the 8 non-P5 teams in the final AP Top 25 being non-AAC teams:

2020..............8 (1 AAC, 2 SBC, 2 MAC, 2 IND, 1 MWC)


......................................................................................................

Up until 2020, the proportion of non-P5 FB teams in the Final AP Top 25 lists that were AAC teams made it possible to argue that the AAC was a "power" or "P6" conference.

.

If the 2020 reversal turns out to have been a "blip" or "anomaly," it may not be anything to be concerned about. However, if the trend observed in 2020 continues, it may raise questions about whether the AAC is much stronger than the other G5 FB conferences.

If that occurs, the only way for the AAC to maintain its status as the best of the non-P5 FB conferences expand would be to add 1-3 more upper-echelon FB schools.


.
04-14-2021 09:37 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


invisiblehand Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 5,071
Joined: Feb 2013
Reputation: 172
I Root For: Tulsa
Location:
Post: #2
RE: Increasing numbers of ranked non-P5 FB teams - a threat to the AAC's P6 aspirations?
2020 was a bit of an anomaly because many major conferences weren’t playing until halfway through or season.
04-14-2021 09:43 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
MagicKnightmare Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,472
Joined: Dec 2010
Reputation: 80
I Root For: UCF
Location: Orlando
Post: #3
RE: Increasing numbers of ranked non-P5 FB teams - a threat to the AAC's P6 aspirations?
Yea I wouldn't call it a trend based on a COVID year. Let's see how 2021 with everyone on a full schedule plays out first.
04-14-2021 09:46 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Attackcoog Offline
Moderator
*

Posts: 35,569
Joined: Oct 2011
Reputation: 1900
I Root For: Houston
Location:
Post: #4
RE: Increasing numbers of ranked non-P5 FB teams - a threat to the AAC's P6 aspirations?
Yup. 2020 was differed from a normal year in a ton of ways, many of which worked against the power leagues. Frankly, thats why I’ve previously made the point that if an undefeated non-P5 team couldn’t crack the top 4 in a year where sone P5’s barely played half a season—-then its simply never going to happen. Last year was the anomaly of all anomalies. I wouldn’t base any long term plans on any projections where 2020 appears to be a critical inflection point.
(This post was last modified: 04-14-2021 10:15 AM by Attackcoog.)
04-14-2021 10:14 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
slhNavy91 Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 5,168
Joined: Jul 2015
Reputation: 559
I Root For: Navy
Location:
Post: #5
RE: Increasing numbers of ranked non-P5 FB teams - a threat to the AAC's P6 aspirations?
(04-14-2021 10:14 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Yup. 2020 was differed from a normal year in a ton of ways, many of which worked against the power leagues. Frankly, thats why I’ve previously made the point that if an undefeated non-P5 team couldn’t crack the top 4 in a year where sone P5’s barely played half a season—-then its simply never going to happen. Last year was the anomaly of all anomalies. I wouldn’t base any long term plans on any projections where 2020 appears to be a critical inflection point.


I strongly agree with the bolded
04-14-2021 10:19 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
jedclampett Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,369
Joined: Jul 2019
Reputation: 144
I Root For: Temple
Location:
Post: #6
RE: Increasing numbers of ranked non-P5 FB teams - a threat to the AAC's P6 aspirations?
.

2020 was certainly a major anomaly.

However, consider this:

ESPN's pre-season FB rankings list these as being likely to be the top 3 AAC and SBC teams:

Rank:

#27 Cincy

#35 Coastal

#36 Tulane

#38 App State

#43 Memphis

#52 Troy

Not much of a gap between the top AAC and Sun Belt teams.

.
04-14-2021 11:09 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


RobUCF Offline
Special Teams
*

Posts: 884
Joined: Nov 2010
Reputation: 39
I Root For: UCF
Location:
Post: #7
RE: Increasing numbers of ranked non-P5 FB teams - a threat to the AAC's P6 aspirations?
(04-14-2021 11:09 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  .

2020 was certainly a major anomaly.

However, consider this:

ESPN's pre-season FB rankings list these as being likely to be the top 3 AAC and SBC teams:

Rank:

#27 Cincy

#35 Coastal

#36 Tulane

#38 App State

#43 Memphis

#52 Troy

Not much of a gap between the top AAC and Sun Belt teams.

.

What you're referencing is FPI, which isn't even intended to be used as a ranking system.

https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post...ollege-fpi
04-14-2021 11:19 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Cubanbull1 Online
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 161
Joined: Jul 2005
Reputation: 14
I Root For:
Location:
Post: #8
RE: Increasing numbers of ranked non-P5 FB teams - a threat to the AAC's P6 aspirations?
All that matters is who gets that NY6 bowl bid.
2020 - Cincinnati- AAC
2019- Memphis- AAC
2018- UCF - AAC
2017- UCF- AAC
2016- W.Michigan- MAC
2015- Houston-AAC
2014- Boise- MWC
04-14-2021 11:32 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
oliveandblue Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 6,638
Joined: Jan 2013
Reputation: 194
I Root For: Tulane
Location:
Post: #9
RE: Increasing numbers of ranked non-P5 FB teams - a threat to the AAC's P6 aspirations?
Oh wow. It's almost as if the AAC has a NY6 tie in (provided the entire conference doesn't crap the bed).
04-14-2021 11:52 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
jedclampett Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,369
Joined: Jul 2019
Reputation: 144
I Root For: Temple
Location:
Post: #10
Increasing numbers of ranked non-P5 FB teams - a threat to the AAC's P6 aspirations?
(04-14-2021 11:52 AM)oliveandblue Wrote:  Oh wow. It's almost as if the AAC has a NY6 tie in (provided the entire conference doesn't crap the bed).

It would have been a lot easier to make that argument back in 2017 and 2018, when UCF went 12-0 and was ranked well-ahead of any other non-P5 team in the CFP rankings.

Remember that Cincy only won the AAC championshp game by a last-minute field goal.

If they had lost that game, Coastal Carolina would have played in the NY6.

.

Similarly, Memphis, Boise, and App St. all finished the 2019 season with 12-1 records, and Memphis only played in the 2019 NY6 because they were ranked (#17) slightly ahead of #19 Boise and #20 App. State.

Memphis had only beaten Tulsa and Cincy on late 4th quarter scores that season, and if they had lost either of those games, Boise or App. State would have played in the NY6.

.

If not for those late-4th quarter scores by Memphis and Cincy in 2019 and 2020, the NY6 history would have been:

2020 - Coastal Carolina - SBC
2019 - Boise - MWC

2018 - UCF - AAC
2017 - UCF- AAC
2016 - W.Michigan- MAC
2015 - Houston-AAC
2014 - Boise- MWC

.

On hubris:

"Bitter fruit my son hath tasted from his purposed vengeance
On Athens, famed for arms, the fatal field
Of Marathon, red with barbaric blood,
Sufficed not; that defeat he thought to avenge
And pull'd this hideous ruin on his head
." (Atossa, Xerxes Mother)

--Aeschylus, The Persians


.
04-14-2021 08:15 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Cubanbull1 Online
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 161
Joined: Jul 2005
Reputation: 14
I Root For:
Location:
Post: #11
RE: Increasing numbers of ranked non-P5 FB teams - a threat to the AAC's P6 aspirations?
(04-14-2021 08:15 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(04-14-2021 11:52 AM)oliveandblue Wrote:  Oh wow. It's almost as if the AAC has a NY6 tie in (provided the entire conference doesn't crap the bed).

It would have been a lot easier to make that argument back in 2017 and 2018, when UCF went 12-0 and was ranked well-ahead of any other non-P5 team in the CFP rankings.

Remember that Cincy only won the AAC championshp game by a last-minute field goal.

If they had lost that game, Coastal Carolina would have played in the NY6.

.

Similarly, Memphis, Boise, and App St. all finished the 2019 season with 12-1 records, and Memphis only played in the 2019 NY6 because they were ranked (#17) slightly ahead of #19 Boise and #20 App. State.

Memphis had only beaten Tulsa and Cincy on late 4th quarter scores that season, and if they had lost either of those games, Boise or App. State would have played in the NY6.

.

If not for those late-4th quarter scores by Memphis and Cincy in 2019 and 2020, the NY6 history would have been:

2020 - Coastal Carolina - SBC
2019 - Boise - MWC

2018 - UCF - AAC
2017 - UCF- AAC
2016 - W.Michigan- MAC
2015 - Houston-AAC
2014 - Boise- MWC

.

On hubris:

"Bitter fruit my son hath tasted from his purposed vengeance
On Athens, famed for arms, the fatal field
Of Marathon, red with barbaric blood,
Sufficed not; that defeat he thought to avenge
And pull'd this hideous ruin on his head
." (Atossa, Xerxes Mother)

--Aeschylus, The Persians


.

LOL big IFS. Facts are what they are.

You also forget that in 2019 Cincinnati was one ranking behind Boise and would probably have jumped them by beating Memphis.

But the facts still stand the AAC champ has held that spot 4 years in a row and 5 out of 6. The SunBelt hasn’t won it at all. Those are the facts that count.
(This post was last modified: 04-14-2021 08:59 PM by Cubanbull1.)
04-14-2021 08:46 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


jedclampett Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,369
Joined: Jul 2019
Reputation: 144
I Root For: Temple
Location:
Post: #12
RE: Increasing numbers of ranked non-P5 FB teams - a threat to the AAC's P6 aspirations?
(04-14-2021 08:46 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  
(04-14-2021 08:15 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(04-14-2021 11:52 AM)oliveandblue Wrote:  Oh wow. It's almost as if the AAC has a NY6 tie in (provided the entire conference doesn't crap the bed).

It would have been a lot easier to make that argument back in 2017 and 2018, when UCF went 12-0 and was ranked well-ahead of any other non-P5 team in the CFP rankings.

Remember that Cincy only won the AAC championshp game by a last-minute field goal.

If they had lost that game, Coastal Carolina would have played in the NY6.

.

Similarly, Memphis, Boise, and App St. all finished the 2019 season with 12-1 records, and Memphis only played in the 2019 NY6 because they were ranked (#17) slightly ahead of #19 Boise and #20 App. State.

Memphis had only beaten Tulsa and Cincy on late 4th quarter scores that season, and if they had lost either of those games, Boise or App. State would have played in the NY6.

.

If not for those late-4th quarter scores by Memphis and Cincy in 2019 and 2020, the NY6 history would have been:

2020 - Coastal Carolina - SBC
2019 - Boise - MWC

2018 - UCF - AAC
2017 - UCF- AAC
2016 - W.Michigan- MAC
2015 - Houston-AAC
2014 - Boise- MWC

.

On hubris:

"Bitter fruit my son hath tasted from his purposed vengeance
On Athens, famed for arms, the fatal field
Of Marathon, red with barbaric blood,
Sufficed not; that defeat he thought to avenge
And pull'd this hideous ruin on his head
." (Atossa, Xerxes Mother)

--Aeschylus, The Persians


.

LOL big IFS. Facts are what they are.

Not "big ifs" - - all it would have taken would have been a dropped pass, a sack, or a turnover late in the 4th quarter of those games to knock the AAC team out of the NY6.
(This post was last modified: 04-14-2021 09:03 PM by jedclampett.)
04-14-2021 09:01 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Cubanbull1 Online
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 161
Joined: Jul 2005
Reputation: 14
I Root For:
Location:
Post: #13
RE: Increasing numbers of ranked non-P5 FB teams - a threat to the AAC's P6 aspirations?
(04-14-2021 09:01 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(04-14-2021 08:46 PM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  
(04-14-2021 08:15 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  
(04-14-2021 11:52 AM)oliveandblue Wrote:  Oh wow. It's almost as if the AAC has a NY6 tie in (provided the entire conference doesn't crap the bed).

It would have been a lot easier to make that argument back in 2017 and 2018, when UCF went 12-0 and was ranked well-ahead of any other non-P5 team in the CFP rankings.

Remember that Cincy only won the AAC championshp game by a last-minute field goal.

If they had lost that game, Coastal Carolina would have played in the NY6.

.

Similarly, Memphis, Boise, and App St. all finished the 2019 season with 12-1 records, and Memphis only played in the 2019 NY6 because they were ranked (#17) slightly ahead of #19 Boise and #20 App. State.

Memphis had only beaten Tulsa and Cincy on late 4th quarter scores that season, and if they had lost either of those games, Boise or App. State would have played in the NY6.

.

If not for those late-4th quarter scores by Memphis and Cincy in 2019 and 2020, the NY6 history would have been:

2020 - Coastal Carolina - SBC
2019 - Boise - MWC

2018 - UCF - AAC
2017 - UCF- AAC
2016 - W.Michigan- MAC
2015 - Houston-AAC
2014 - Boise- MWC

.

On hubris:

"Bitter fruit my son hath tasted from his purposed vengeance
On Athens, famed for arms, the fatal field
Of Marathon, red with barbaric blood,
Sufficed not; that defeat he thought to avenge
And pull'd this hideous ruin on his head
." (Atossa, Xerxes Mother)

--Aeschylus, The Persians


.

LOL big IFS. Facts are what they are.

Not "big ifs" - - all it would have taken would have been a dropped pass, a sack, or a turnover late in the 4th quarter of those games to knock the AAC team out of the NY6.

But it didn’t happen. By the way as I said before no guarantee that Boise would not had been jumped in 2019.
(This post was last modified: 04-14-2021 09:05 PM by Cubanbull1.)
04-14-2021 09:05 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
jedclampett Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,369
Joined: Jul 2019
Reputation: 144
I Root For: Temple
Location:
Post: #14
RE: Increasing numbers of ranked non-P5 FB teams - a threat to the AAC's P6 aspirations?
.

One certainly can't generalize about multi-year trends from one or two seasons, particularly coming off a highly atypical pandemic year.

However, there is one multi-year trend that wasn't affected by the pandemic - - and that is the steady trend toward more and more P5 teams in the Final AP and CFP Top 25 over the past 7 seasons.

....................# of non-P5 FB teams in Final AP Top 25:

2020..............8

2019..............7

2018..............6

2017..............4

2016..............3

2015..............3

2014..............3

2013..............1

.

The AAC's best year was 2019, with four AAC teams in the final AP Top 25. If this were to continue, the American might be able to maintain that it is head and shoulders above the other G5 conferences with some credibility.

However, on average, the AAC has only had 2.5 teams per year in the Final AP Top 25 over the past four seasons. The MWC isn't far behind with 1.75 Top 25 teams per season since 2017, and the SBC has averaged 1.5 final Top 25 teams in 2019 and 2020.

The AAC may not be in imminent danger of losing its reputation as the "top dog" in the G5, but that could change if there is continuing growth in the number of upper echelon G5 teams.

.

This is of importance because it wouldn't take much at this point for one of the other conferences, such as the SBC or the MWC, to attain parity with the AAC with respect to the number of upper echelon teams per conference.

If things get to that point, the American would have a harder time making the argument that it maintains a special status as the only "P6" football power conference, with the other G5 conferences being referred to as the "G4."

.

Q: Is the AAC leadership concerned about this potential problem?

A: The answer appears to be yes, since they have responded to the evolving situation by shifting their stance from being happy with 11 teams per sport to contacting Boise St. about joining the AAC (FB-only), and by announcing an intention to replace UConn and/or expand to 14 schools.


Q: What, if anything, can the American do about this situation?

A: There's nothing it can do to prevent another G5 conference from getting 2 or 3 FB teams per year into the final top 25. All it can do to maintain a dominant position is to increase the number of AAC teams the final top 25.

Q: How can they do that?

A: Two ways: (1) They can make a greater effort to elevated the quality of their football teams, and (2) They can add another strong football program.

Of the two, remedy #2 is far easier than remedy #1 is to accomplish. No amount of conference-led effort is likely to prevent teams such as Houston and Temple from slumping when they lose a fine Head Coach. Every school is already doing whatever it can to improve the competitiveness of its FB program. In contrast, remedy #2 simply requires persuading a high-quality FB school to join the conference.

Boise State even requested to join the AAC, and if they had joined, they would have bolstered the AAC's claim to be the top dog in the G5 and a FB power conference going forward. However, the AAC leadership turned down that request because it didn't want to grant Boise an all-sports membership.

It may live to regret that decision.

.
04-15-2021 01:10 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
slhNavy91 Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 5,168
Joined: Jul 2015
Reputation: 559
I Root For: Navy
Location:
Post: #15
RE: Increasing numbers of ranked non-P5 FB teams - a threat to the AAC's P6 aspirations?
(04-15-2021 01:10 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  .

One certainly can't generalize about multi-year trends from one or two seasons, particularly coming off a highly atypical pandemic year.

However, there is one multi-year trend that wasn't affected by the pandemic - - and that is the steady trend toward more and more P5 teams in the Final AP and CFP Top 25 over the past 7 seasons.

....................# of non-P5 FB teams in Final AP Top 25:

2020..............8

2019..............7

2018..............6

2017..............4

2016..............3

2015..............3

2014..............3

2013..............1

.

The AAC's best year was 2019, with four AAC teams in the final AP Top 25. If this were to continue, the American might be able to maintain that it is head and shoulders above the other G5 conferences with some credibility.

However, on average, the AAC has only had 2.5 teams per year in the Final AP Top 25 over the past four seasons. The MWC isn't far behind with 1.75 Top 25 teams per season since 2017, and the SBC has averaged 1.5 final Top 25 teams in 2019 and 2020.

The AAC may not be in imminent danger of losing its reputation as the "top dog" in the G5, but that could change if there is continuing growth in the number of upper echelon G5 teams.

.

This is of importance because it wouldn't take much at this point for one of the other conferences, such as the SBC or the MWC, to attain parity with the AAC with respect to the number of upper echelon teams per conference.

If things get to that point, the American would have a harder time making the argument that it maintains a special status as the only "P6" football power conference, with the other G5 conferences being referred to as the "G4."

.

Q: Is the AAC leadership concerned about this potential problem?

A: The answer appears to be yes, since they have responded to the evolving situation by shifting their stance from being happy with 11 teams per sport to contacting Boise St. about joining the AAC (FB-only), and by announcing an intention to replace UConn and/or expand to 14 schools.


Q: What, if anything, can the American do about this situation?

A: There's nothing it can do to prevent another G5 conference from getting 2 or 3 FB teams per year into the final top 25. All it can do to maintain a dominant position is to increase the number of AAC teams the final top 25.

Q: How can they do that?

A: Two ways: (1) They can make a greater effort to elevated the quality of their football teams, and (2) They can add another strong football program.

Of the two, remedy #2 is far easier than remedy #1 is to accomplish. No amount of conference-led effort is likely to prevent teams such as Houston and Temple from slumping when they lose a fine Head Coach. Every school is already doing whatever it can to improve the competitiveness of its FB program. In contrast, remedy #2 simply requires persuading a high-quality FB school to join the conference.

Boise State even requested to join the AAC, and if they had joined, they would have bolstered the AAC's claim to be the top dog in the G5 and a FB power conference going forward. However, the AAC leadership turned down that request because it didn't want to grant Boise an all-sports membership.

It may live to regret that decision.

.

In January 2020 Boise State was unhappy with the mwc pushing back on the special deal (separate negotiation of BSU home games and more money going to BSU than other members) made upon the Broncos' return to the mwc in 2012. BSU made overtures to the AAC and explored other conference affiliations for non-football sports.
In September 2020 Boise State football coach and AD were unhappy with the mwc decision to cancel football due to the pandemic. These overtures were renewed.

Somehow these events were influenced by the final AP Top 25 of January 2021?
Fascinating.

The AP Top 25 of January 2020, the final for the 2019 season -- the one that might have some influence on events if we think about time as a linear progression -- had 4 AAC teams in the Top 25 (plus Boise and Appalachian State).
(Oh by the way, that is 6 and you say 7)

The AAC considering BSU for a football-only addition isn't any kind of stance shifting - It was good in December 2011, it would have been good immediately after UConn announced their departure in June 2019, and it was good in 2020. BSU (as a football only) has always been one of the few programs on the short list of those that would add value to the conference.
(This post was last modified: 04-15-2021 08:39 AM by slhNavy91.)
04-15-2021 08:22 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
fade2blac Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 274
Joined: May 2013
Reputation: 32
I Root For: UCF
Location:
Post: #16
RE: Increasing numbers of ranked non-P5 FB teams - a threat to the AAC's P6 aspirations?
(04-14-2021 11:32 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  All that matters is who gets that NY6 bowl bid.
2020 - Cincinnati- AAC
2019- Memphis- AAC
2018- UCF - AAC
2017- UCF- AAC
2016- W.Michigan- MAC
2015- Houston-AAC
2014- Boise- MWC

Why leave out 2013? It was the first year of the AAC and UCF won the Fiesta Bowl. I know it was the last year of the BCS but it should still be mentioned. AAC has owned the NY6/BCS slot since the AAC was formed.
04-15-2021 08:30 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


Cubanbull1 Online
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 161
Joined: Jul 2005
Reputation: 14
I Root For:
Location:
Post: #17
RE: Increasing numbers of ranked non-P5 FB teams - a threat to the AAC's P6 aspirations?
(04-15-2021 08:30 AM)fade2blac Wrote:  
(04-14-2021 11:32 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  All that matters is who gets that NY6 bowl bid.
2020 - Cincinnati- AAC
2019- Memphis- AAC
2018- UCF - AAC
2017- UCF- AAC
2016- W.Michigan- MAC
2015- Houston-AAC
2014- Boise- MWC

Why leave out 2013? It was the first year of the AAC and UCF won the Fiesta Bowl. I know it was the last year of the BCS but it should still be mentioned. AAC has owned the NY6/BCS slot since the AAC was formed.
Because that was not part of the NY6 bowls and playoff contract. UCF went that year as an automatic champion of the old BigEast. The league lost that automatic bid after that year.
04-15-2021 09:27 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Cubanbull1 Online
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 161
Joined: Jul 2005
Reputation: 14
I Root For:
Location:
Post: #18
RE: Increasing numbers of ranked non-P5 FB teams - a threat to the AAC's P6 aspirations?
First off why is anyone looking at AP polls when it comes to the NY6 bowls? You need to look at the Playoff poll which is what decides who gets the slot.

In the 7 years of the deal which the AAC has taken 5, MWC 1, MAC 1, CUSA 0, SBC 0

Total ranked teams in final polls
AAC 13
MWC 6- Boise has 3 of them
SBC 3
MAC 1
CUSA 0

So the AAC has had more final ranked teams than all the others added together.

Anybody wanting to play games about what IF, the AAC team lost title game needs to also do so for the others. Boise in 2014 played a Fresno team with a losing record. A loss there and they lose that spot. Same can be said about Western Michigan which needed an interception leading by 6 to beat Ohio. Lose there and they don’t get the spot.

The facts are that the AAC has a higher chance of having two ranked teams in their championship every year than the others do.

I am all for adding Boise and going to 14 with BYU and SDSU. A 14 team league with 8 conference games means only two crossovers which leads to higher chance of both divisions champs not having faced each other and having higher ranks.
04-15-2021 10:01 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Attackcoog Offline
Moderator
*

Posts: 35,569
Joined: Oct 2011
Reputation: 1900
I Root For: Houston
Location:
Post: #19
RE: Increasing numbers of ranked non-P5 FB teams - a threat to the AAC's P6 aspirations?
(04-15-2021 09:27 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  
(04-15-2021 08:30 AM)fade2blac Wrote:  
(04-14-2021 11:32 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  All that matters is who gets that NY6 bowl bid.
2020 - Cincinnati- AAC
2019- Memphis- AAC
2018- UCF - AAC
2017- UCF- AAC
2016- W.Michigan- MAC
2015- Houston-AAC
2014- Boise- MWC

Why leave out 2013? It was the first year of the AAC and UCF won the Fiesta Bowl. I know it was the last year of the BCS but it should still be mentioned. AAC has owned the NY6/BCS slot since the AAC was formed.
Because that was not part of the NY6 bowls and playoff contract. UCF went that year as an automatic champion of the old BigEast. The league lost that automatic bid after that year.

True---BUT---we DID send a team to a NYD Bowl that year and IF the current CFP access bowl rules had been in effect in the 2013 season---the exact same UCF team would have been awarded the access bowl slot. Thus, I have no issue adding on the 2013 appearance since that appearance would have qualified under the current CFP rules governing the access bowl.
(This post was last modified: 04-15-2021 10:11 AM by Attackcoog.)
04-15-2021 10:11 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Attackcoog Offline
Moderator
*

Posts: 35,569
Joined: Oct 2011
Reputation: 1900
I Root For: Houston
Location:
Post: #20
RE: Increasing numbers of ranked non-P5 FB teams - a threat to the AAC's P6 aspirations?
(04-15-2021 01:10 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  .

One certainly can't generalize about multi-year trends from one or two seasons, particularly coming off a highly atypical pandemic year.

However, there is one multi-year trend that wasn't affected by the pandemic - - and that is the steady trend toward more and more P5 teams in the Final AP and CFP Top 25 over the past 7 seasons.

....................# of non-P5 FB teams in Final AP Top 25:

2020..............8

2019..............7

2018..............6

2017..............4

2016..............3

2015..............3

2014..............3

2013..............1

.

The AAC's best year was 2019, with four AAC teams in the final AP Top 25. If this were to continue, the American might be able to maintain that it is head and shoulders above the other G5 conferences with some credibility.

However, on average, the AAC has only had 2.5 teams per year in the Final AP Top 25 over the past four seasons. The MWC isn't far behind with 1.75 Top 25 teams per season since 2017, and the SBC has averaged 1.5 final Top 25 teams in 2019 and 2020.

The AAC may not be in imminent danger of losing its reputation as the "top dog" in the G5, but that could change if there is continuing growth in the number of upper echelon G5 teams.

.

This is of importance because it wouldn't take much at this point for one of the other conferences, such as the SBC or the MWC, to attain parity with the AAC with respect to the number of upper echelon teams per conference.

If things get to that point, the American would have a harder time making the argument that it maintains a special status as the only "P6" football power conference, with the other G5 conferences being referred to as the "G4."

.

Q: Is the AAC leadership concerned about this potential problem?

A: The answer appears to be yes, since they have responded to the evolving situation by shifting their stance from being happy with 11 teams per sport to contacting Boise St. about joining the AAC (FB-only), and by announcing an intention to replace UConn and/or expand to 14 schools.


Q: What, if anything, can the American do about this situation?

A: There's nothing it can do to prevent another G5 conference from getting 2 or 3 FB teams per year into the final top 25. All it can do to maintain a dominant position is to increase the number of AAC teams the final top 25.

Q: How can they do that?

A: Two ways: (1) They can make a greater effort to elevated the quality of their football teams, and (2) They can add another strong football program.

Of the two, remedy #2 is far easier than remedy #1 is to accomplish. No amount of conference-led effort is likely to prevent teams such as Houston and Temple from slumping when they lose a fine Head Coach. Every school is already doing whatever it can to improve the competitiveness of its FB program. In contrast, remedy #2 simply requires persuading a high-quality FB school to join the conference.

Boise State even requested to join the AAC, and if they had joined, they would have bolstered the AAC's claim to be the top dog in the G5 and a FB power conference going forward. However, the AAC leadership turned down that request because it didn't want to grant Boise an all-sports membership.

It may live to regret that decision.

.

No more than we regret the decision to not offer Boise a "special deal". If we are going to allow all sports western additions---it will have to be multiple additions and it will require a switch to scheduling that relies heavily on playing almost exclusively within eastern and western divisions. There are advantages and disadvantages to that---but its much more of a commitment for the AAC to go all sports in the west than it is to add a single western "football only" school. The hesitancy of the AAC to make that kind of commitment is not unreasonable.
04-15-2021 10:18 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2021 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2021 MyBB Group.