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ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
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KnightLight Offline
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Post: #1
ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
For the AAC, here is their ranking (with expected win totals)

#27 Cincinnati (9.3 wins)
#36 Tulane (7.8)
#43 Memphis (8.7)
#66 Houston (8.0)
#67 Tulsa (6.7)
#70 UCF (7.5)
#81 SMU (5.5)
#103 ECU (4.6)
#105 usf (4.2)
#111 Navy (3.3)
#119 Temple (3.5)

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/group/151

Shocked! Bama is listed as #1

Also notes percentage prediction on winning your division, conf, making the playoff, making the NC Game and then winning it.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi
(This post was last modified: 04-13-2021 10:57 AM by KnightLight.)
04-13-2021 10:55 AM
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Lurkercat Offline
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Post: #2
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
Aac has 5 teams ranked above the highest mwc team. Sbc has 4 ranked higher lol
04-13-2021 11:00 AM
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robertfoshizzle Online
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Post: #3
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
Cincinnati finishes #8 in the final polls, returns nearly all of its starters, and ESPN's FPI puts us at #27. A joke, just like everything that comes from ESPN. It's almost like they enjoy being wrong every season. I think most of the posters on this board could come up with a better rating system.
04-13-2021 11:36 AM
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JHG722 Offline
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RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
lol
04-13-2021 11:41 AM
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robertfoshizzle Online
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Post: #5
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
Seriously, how can the idiot who came up with the formula for the FPI look at what it spit out and go, "this is great -- let's publish it." ESPN should be embarrassed.
04-13-2021 11:44 AM
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slhNavy91 Offline
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Post: #6
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
Yeah - you can click on "Resume" and then sort on the "Remaining Strength of Schedule"

The first 17 schools ranked by Rem.SoS are from two conferences. The entire BigXII, 6/7 of the SEC West and South Carolina. The second half of the SEC are all between 21-42 Rem.SoS
The AAC has 5 of 11 teams between 71-81 Rem.SoS
The mwc has 6 of 12 teams between 118-129 Rem.SoS

I'm sure it's unpossible that there is some problem with an overly recursive formula in the FPI
04-13-2021 12:01 PM
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KnightLight Offline
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Post: #7
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
Only four G5 Teams ranked in the Top 40:

#27 Cincinnati
#35 Coastal Carolina
#36 Tulane
#38 App State

When you start low...and ESPN has all the other teams in your conf ranked low...you will never ever get credit for any conf game wins...which is how voters justify having 3 loss P5 teams ranked above undefeated AAC Teams.

It's almost like ESPN, which OWNS the CFP and has TV Deals with all five P5 Conferences, is doing their best to frame the picture for 2021 Voters that G5 teams shouldn't even be considered for Top 25, let alone Top 10 votes.
(This post was last modified: 04-13-2021 02:23 PM by KnightLight.)
04-13-2021 12:20 PM
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Yosef Himself Offline
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Post: #8
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
(04-13-2021 12:20 PM)KnightLight Wrote:  Only 3 G5 Teams ranked in the Top 40:

#27 Cincinnati
#35 Coastal Carolina
#36 Tulane

4 G5 teams in the top 40. App is #38
04-13-2021 12:32 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #9
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
I wonder why they have such low expectations of SMU? They seem like a team on the upswing.
04-13-2021 12:41 PM
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Pony94 Online
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Post: #10
ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
(04-13-2021 12:41 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I wonder why they have such low expectations of SMU? They seem like a team on the upswing.


Having seen practice, I think Mordecai is equal or better than Shane.
04-13-2021 12:48 PM
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BraveKnight Online
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Post: #11
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
#70?? What a joke
04-13-2021 12:56 PM
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RobUCF Offline
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Post: #12
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
(04-13-2021 12:56 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  #70?? What a joke

I though so as well, then I looked at their preseason criteria. Apparently, the addition of a new coach is an automatic downgrade utilizing their formula.

Preseason ratings historically have their flaws, but ultimately they allow for an opponent adjustment after Week 1 and are a great tool to preview the season. As noted, there are four components to the preseason rating: prior performance, returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure.

-- Prior performance is built off the framework of expected points added. The most recent year’s performance is by far the most important piece of information powering preseason FPI, but three more years are added to measure consistency and account for outliers in performance. The most recent year counts almost twice as much as the three years before it.

-- Returning starters on offense and defense, with special consideration given to starting quarterbacks or transfer quarterbacks with starting experience, is the second piece of information powering preseason FPI. Because starters interact with other inputs, it’s not as simple as saying an extra returning starter is worth one point. Nonetheless, a starting quarterback is worth about 3.3 points per game to a team returning an average offense (all else equal), and a transfer quarterback is given half the weight of a starter.

-- FPI uses four recruiting services -- ESPN, Rivals, Scouts and Phil Steele -- to measure the talent on a team’s roster and add an additional piece of information about which teams are on the rise. The addition of recruiting has been a controversial piece of FPI, but it’s worth noting that it is a very minor component that helps with prediction accuracy.

-- Coaching tenure is primarily a way to capture the addition of a new head coach. With all else equal, a team’s predictive offensive, defensive and special teams ratings will regress slightly to the mean with the addition of a new coach.
04-13-2021 01:40 PM
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Hurricane Drummer Offline
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Post: #13
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
Whatever data ESPN is feeding into their computer is not working well for them.
04-13-2021 01:54 PM
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KnightLight Offline
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Post: #14
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
(04-13-2021 12:32 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  
(04-13-2021 12:20 PM)KnightLight Wrote:  Only 4 G5 Teams ranked in the Top 40:

#27 Cincinnati
#35 Coastal Carolina
#36 Tulane
#38 App State

4 G5 teams in the top 40. App is #38

Good catch. Corrected.
04-13-2021 02:23 PM
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robertfoshizzle Online
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Post: #15
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
(04-13-2021 01:54 PM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote:  Whatever data ESPN is feeding into their computer is not working well for them.

Yeah, if my formula spit out these numbers, I'd scrap it and start over. Pathetic.
04-13-2021 03:25 PM
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Casanova Offline
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Post: #16
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
ESPN showing why no one takes them seriously
04-13-2021 03:31 PM
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Sideshow2313 Offline
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RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
It is definitely P-5 bias. Guess the results will be the judge of their assessment. Too bad there is a glass ceiling.
04-13-2021 03:31 PM
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oliveandblue Offline
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Post: #18
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
If Tulane were really the #36 team, the Big XII would be calling.

I think we're a bit overrated (which is new and a sign of progress). Feels like a 7-6 year is coming as that schedule is tough.
04-13-2021 03:36 PM
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robertfoshizzle Online
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Post: #19
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
(04-13-2021 03:31 PM)Sideshow2313 Wrote:  It is definitely P-5 bias. Guess the results will be the judge of their assessment. Too bad there is a glass ceiling.

The good news is that Cincinnati arguably has the best chance to shatter the glass ceiling since the Houston team that beat Oklahoma and Louisville. We play Notre Dame (#11 FPI) and Indiana (#25 FPI), both on the road. Both games are winnable, but winning both on the road will be a tall task. That said, if the AAC is strong and Cincinnati runs the table, it would take some real cajones (or the misfortune of having 4 undefeated P5 champions) to keep UC out of the playoff.
04-13-2021 03:38 PM
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gulfcoastgal Offline
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RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
(04-13-2021 01:40 PM)RobUCF Wrote:  
(04-13-2021 12:56 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  #70?? What a joke

I though so as well, then I looked at their preseason criteria. Apparently, the addition of a new coach is an automatic downgrade utilizing their formula.

Preseason ratings historically have their flaws, but ultimately they allow for an opponent adjustment after Week 1 and are a great tool to preview the season. As noted, there are four components to the preseason rating: prior performance, returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure.

-- Prior performance is built off the framework of expected points added. The most recent year’s performance is by far the most important piece of information powering preseason FPI, but three more years are added to measure consistency and account for outliers in performance. The most recent year counts almost twice as much as the three years before it.

-- Returning starters on offense and defense, with special consideration given to starting quarterbacks or transfer quarterbacks with starting experience, is the second piece of information powering preseason FPI. Because starters interact with other inputs, it’s not as simple as saying an extra returning starter is worth one point. Nonetheless, a starting quarterback is worth about 3.3 points per game to a team returning an average offense (all else equal), and a transfer quarterback is given half the weight of a starter.

-- FPI uses four recruiting services -- ESPN, Rivals, Scouts and Phil Steele -- to measure the talent on a team’s roster and add an additional piece of information about which teams are on the rise. The addition of recruiting has been a controversial piece of FPI, but it’s worth noting that it is a very minor component that helps with prediction accuracy.

-- Coaching tenure is primarily a way to capture the addition of a new head coach. With all else equal, a team’s predictive offensive, defensive and special teams ratings will regress slightly to the mean with the addition of a new coach.
Gotta figure 2020 will be the biggest outlier compared to previous and future years. It shouldn't be thrown out, but emphasizing it will most likely skew results when looking back in say 5 years. IOW, it was outside the typical FBS norms in regards to starting times, OOC games and conference games.
04-13-2021 03:42 PM
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