(04-13-2021 12:41 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I wonder why they have such low expectations of SMU? They seem like a team on the upswing.

Because they found out that ECU put 45 points on them in the first half.

(04-13-2021 03:36 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  If Tulane were really the #36 team, the Big XII would be calling.

I think we're a bit overrated (which is new and a sign of progress). Feels like a 7-6 year is coming as that schedule is tough.

I don’t think one year of us being 8-4 (their prediction) would have the big calling.

I think we are properly rated but Cinci is low, as is UCF/SMU and others.

First time we have had a good qb and a good oc for an entire year, and if our new dc brings our defense just to average on 3rd and 4th down conversions we’ll have 8 wins against a very tough schedule.

(04-13-2021 04:17 PM)mikeinoki Wrote:  

(04-13-2021 12:41 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I wonder why they have such low expectations of SMU? They seem like a team on the upswing.

Because they found out that ECU put 45 points on them in the first half.

ECU is the tonya harding of AAC athletics but without the success. I'm beginning to think they are a P5 plant/ringer or just hate successful teams.

(04-13-2021 12:41 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I wonder why they have such low expectations of SMU? They seem like a team on the upswing.

I (kind of) understand why they did this to us but it's nice somebody said something.

Look, I understand - We lose our do-everything QB and AA TE and our best player has set out half the season the last two years. We're bringing in another truckload of 'left overs' as replacements for our losses, and while we're definitely improved under CSD we still show inconsistency, and the rest of the country was never high on the hire to begin with. Fine.

BUT WHY THE HELL IS MISSISSIPPI STATE TOP 10. And, oh yeah, Another Year Another Top 15 Texas Preview! Yeah, that's original!

And don't tell me TCU is top 25. I understand the superstar recruit RB is going into his second year, but they were 6-4 last year without playing us and lose the single best Safety in the Draft (or maybe country) and could have four other players drafted - not exactly small losses. That, and everyone else around them is getting better, up to and including us, and UT might actually improve this year, so, yeah, not impressive.

(04-13-2021 07:18 PM)Agust Wrote:  

(04-13-2021 04:17 PM)mikeinoki Wrote:  

(04-13-2021 12:41 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I wonder why they have such low expectations of SMU? They seem like a team on the upswing.

Because they found out that ECU put 45 points on them in the first half.

ECU is the tonya harding of AAC athletics but without the success. I'm beginning to think they are a P5 plant/ringer or just hate successful teams.

The funny part is that the average teams farm them for wins. It's so odd.

ECU was 3-5 in the AAC last year and should’ve been 4-4 if the Tulsa call was right. ECU certainly wasn’t good or even average, but they weren’t bad. Return almost everyone and will be better this season. I think 7-5 (5-3). 9-3(6-2) if Garcia starts at QB over Ahlers.

SMU is slightly underrated but only slightly. SMU should be a 6 or 7 win team this season. New QB and perennial November swoon puts us at 6-2 to start the season and a collapse at the end to finish 6-6 or 7-5. Until we prove we can win in November I don't have a problem with nobody believing in SMU.

(04-13-2021 10:55 AM)KnightLight Wrote:  For the AAC, here is their ranking (with expected win totals)

#27 Cincinnati (9.3 wins)
#36 Tulane (7.8)
#43 Memphis (8.7)
#66 Houston (8.0)
#67 Tulsa (6.7)
#70 UCF (7.5)
#81 SMU (5.5)
#103 ECU (4.6)
#105 usf (4.2)
#111 Navy (3.3)
#119 Temple (3.5)

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/group/151

Shocked! Bama is listed as #1

Also notes percentage prediction on winning your division, conf, making the playoff, making the NC Game and then winning it.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi

I think Temple is a complete unknow. Lots of roster turnover, but some good pick-ups from ther portal. QB and coaching will determine our fate.

(04-14-2021 11:33 AM)Fishpro10987 Wrote:  

(04-13-2021 10:55 AM)KnightLight Wrote:  For the AAC, here is their ranking (with expected win totals)

#27 Cincinnati (9.3 wins)
#36 Tulane (7.8)
#43 Memphis (8.7)
#66 Houston (8.0)
#67 Tulsa (6.7)
#70 UCF (7.5)
#81 SMU (5.5)
#103 ECU (4.6)
#105 usf (4.2)
#111 Navy (3.3)
#119 Temple (3.5)

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/group/151

Shocked! Bama is listed as #1

Also notes percentage prediction on winning your division, conf, making the playoff, making the NC Game and then winning it.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi

I think Temple is a complete unknow. Lots of roster turnover, but some good pick-ups from ther portal. QB and coaching will determine our fate.

Unfortunately our 4 QBs have a combined 3.5 starts and our coach is Rod Carey.

(04-13-2021 07:25 PM)SMUleopold Wrote:  

(04-13-2021 12:41 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I wonder why they have such low expectations of SMU? They seem like a team on the upswing.

I (kind of) understand why they did this to us but it's nice somebody said something.

Look, I understand - We lose our do-everything QB and AA TE and our best player has set out half the season the last two years. We're bringing in another truckload of 'left overs' as replacements for our losses, and while we're definitely improved under CSD we still show inconsistency, and the rest of the country was never high on the hire to begin with. Fine.

BUT WHY THE HELL IS MISSISSIPPI STATE TOP 10. And, oh yeah, Another Year Another Top 15 Texas Preview! Yeah, that's original!

And don't tell me TCU is top 25. I understand the superstar recruit RB is going into his second year, but they were 6-4 last year without playing us and lose the single best Safety in the Draft (or maybe country) and could have four other players drafted - not exactly small losses. That, and everyone else around them is getting better, up to and including us, and UT might actually improve this year, so, yeah, not impressive.

OOOOOooooooo!!!!! Guess who our third opponent is this year.... And we get them at home.

I honestly expect Tulsa to be better next season than they were this past season. With the extra covid eligibility they will return basically the entire defense with the exception of Zaven Collins and while he’s a big piece to replace there’s a lot of young linebacker talent at TU. On the offensive side of the ball we lose the QB and a running back. We get our number one RB back who missed last year with injury and the new QB should be a big upgrade over Smith. We’ll probably not look like world beaters to start the season against Ohio State and Oklahoma State but if we beat one or both of those then look out.

Is this any different than the 247 article predicting the 25 best qb's returning for the 2021 season. After reading that article, I would have swore it was written by an espn writer.

(04-14-2021 08:47 AM)DowdyPirate Wrote:  ECU was 3-5 in the AAC last year and should’ve been 4-4 if the Tulsa call was right. ECU certainly wasn’t good or even average, but they weren’t bad. Return almost everyone and will be better this season. I think 7-5 (5-3). 9-3(6-2) if Garcia starts at QB over Ahlers.

As a fellow ECU fan, I don't agree with this at all. Throw out the anomaly that was 2020 for a moment. We could be a MUCH MUCH better team than 2019 and still finish with 4 wins.

Compare the full schedules of 2019 with 2021. We're swapping Gardner-Webb(FCS), NC State(ACC), William & Mary(FCS), and ODU(1-win CUSA) for...

Charleston Southern (FCS), App State (Sun Belt but respectable), Marshall (we just poached 3 of their players), and South Carolina (SEC).

(04-14-2021 05:59 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(04-13-2021 07:25 PM)SMUleopold Wrote:  I (kind of) understand why they did this to us but it's nice somebody said something.

Look, I understand - We lose our do-everything QB and AA TE and our best player has set out half the season the last two years. We're bringing in another truckload of 'left overs' as replacements for our losses, and while we're definitely improved under CSD we still show inconsistency, and the rest of the country was never high on the hire to begin with. Fine.

BUT WHY THE HELL IS MISSISSIPPI STATE TOP 10. And, oh yeah, Another Year Another Top 15 Texas Preview! Yeah, that's original!

And don't tell me TCU is top 25. I understand the superstar recruit RB is going into his second year, but they were 6-4 last year without playing us and lose the single best Safety in the Draft (or maybe country) and could have four other players drafted - not exactly small losses. That, and everyone else around them is getting better, up to and including us, and UT might actually improve this year, so, yeah, not impressive.

OOOOOooooooo!!!!! Guess who our third opponent is this year.... And we get them at home.

If Silverfield doesn't have the Kentucky defensive game and playbook memorized by that time fire him.
And I hope you beat that arrogant a-hole senseless...

UCF at #70 is completely laughable

(04-13-2021 07:25 PM)SMUleopold Wrote:  

(04-13-2021 12:41 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I wonder why they have such low expectations of SMU? They seem like a team on the upswing.

I (kind of) understand why they did this to us but it's nice somebody said something.

Look, I understand - We lose our do-everything QB and AA TE and our best player has set out half the season the last two years. We're bringing in another truckload of 'left overs' as replacements for our losses, and while we're definitely improved under CSD we still show inconsistency, and the rest of the country was never high on the hire to begin with. Fine.

BUT WHY THE HELL IS MISSISSIPPI STATE TOP 10. And, oh yeah, Another Year Another Top 15 Texas Preview! Yeah, that's original!

And don't tell me TCU is top 25. I understand the superstar recruit RB is going into his second year, but they were 6-4 last year without playing us and lose the single best Safety in the Draft (or maybe country) and could have four other players drafted - not exactly small losses. That, and everyone else around them is getting better, up to and including us, and UT might actually improve this year, so, yeah, not impressive.

FWIW--I actually liked that coaching hire. In fact, Dykes was the guy I wanted us to hire back when Sumlin left.

(04-16-2021 04:21 AM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  UCF at #70 is completely laughable

Hope so....and hopefully the kids use it to put fire in their bellies.

One of local ESPN radio guys had the guy who put this together on air Friday. The metrics used are BS. One of them is recruiting rankings, which is silly when you consider it does not account for guys improving since high school (or for that matter being a bust).

(04-17-2021 04:16 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  One of local ESPN radio guys had the guy who put this together on air Friday. The metrics used are BS. One of them is recruiting rankings, which is silly when you consider it does not account for guys improving since high school (or for that matter being a bust).

I hope Vegas goes with this as I will pick SMU winning at least 6 games

(04-17-2021 04:16 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  One of local ESPN radio guys had the guy who put this together on air Friday. The metrics used are BS. One of them is recruiting rankings, which is silly when you consider it does not account for guys improving since high school (or for that matter being a bust).

Most good preseason computer models use recruiting rankings to some extent. Fpi seems to put far too much emphasis on it.