Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
Author Message
KnightLight Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 27,664
Joined: Sep 2003
Reputation: 700
I Root For: UCF
Location:
Post: #1
ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
For the AAC, here is their ranking (with expected win totals)

#27 Cincinnati (9.3 wins)
#36 Tulane (7.8)
#43 Memphis (8.7)
#66 Houston (8.0)
#67 Tulsa (6.7)
#70 UCF (7.5)
#81 SMU (5.5)
#103 ECU (4.6)
#105 usf (4.2)
#111 Navy (3.3)
#119 Temple (3.5)

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/group/151

Shocked! Bama is listed as #1

Also notes percentage prediction on winning your division, conf, making the playoff, making the NC Game and then winning it.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi
(This post was last modified: 04-13-2021 10:57 AM by KnightLight.)
04-13-2021 10:55 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


Lurkercat Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,199
Joined: Sep 2019
Reputation: 33
I Root For: UC
Location:
Post: #2
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
Aac has 5 teams ranked above the highest mwc team. Sbc has 4 ranked higher lol
04-13-2021 11:00 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
robertfoshizzle Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 6,981
Joined: Oct 2014
Reputation: 273
I Root For: Cincinnati
Location: Columbus
Post: #3
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
Cincinnati finishes #8 in the final polls, returns nearly all of its starters, and ESPN's FPI puts us at #27. A joke, just like everything that comes from ESPN. It's almost like they enjoy being wrong every season. I think most of the posters on this board could come up with a better rating system.
04-13-2021 11:36 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JHG722 Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 14,917
Joined: May 2009
Reputation: 219
I Root For: Temple
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Post: #4
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
lol
04-13-2021 11:41 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
robertfoshizzle Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 6,981
Joined: Oct 2014
Reputation: 273
I Root For: Cincinnati
Location: Columbus
Post: #5
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
Seriously, how can the idiot who came up with the formula for the FPI look at what it spit out and go, "this is great -- let's publish it." ESPN should be embarrassed.
04-13-2021 11:44 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
slhNavy91 Online
Heisman
*

Posts: 7,850
Joined: Jul 2015
Reputation: 1622
I Root For: Navy
Location:
Post: #6
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
Yeah - you can click on "Resume" and then sort on the "Remaining Strength of Schedule"

The first 17 schools ranked by Rem.SoS are from two conferences. The entire BigXII, 6/7 of the SEC West and South Carolina. The second half of the SEC are all between 21-42 Rem.SoS
The AAC has 5 of 11 teams between 71-81 Rem.SoS
The mwc has 6 of 12 teams between 118-129 Rem.SoS

I'm sure it's unpossible that there is some problem with an overly recursive formula in the FPI
04-13-2021 12:01 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


KnightLight Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 27,664
Joined: Sep 2003
Reputation: 700
I Root For: UCF
Location:
Post: #7
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
Only four G5 Teams ranked in the Top 40:

#27 Cincinnati
#35 Coastal Carolina
#36 Tulane
#38 App State

When you start low...and ESPN has all the other teams in your conf ranked low...you will never ever get credit for any conf game wins...which is how voters justify having 3 loss P5 teams ranked above undefeated AAC Teams.

It's almost like ESPN, which OWNS the CFP and has TV Deals with all five P5 Conferences, is doing their best to frame the picture for 2021 Voters that G5 teams shouldn't even be considered for Top 25, let alone Top 10 votes.
(This post was last modified: 04-13-2021 02:23 PM by KnightLight.)
04-13-2021 12:20 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Yosef Himself Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 6,959
Joined: Nov 2012
Reputation: 470
I Root For: App State
Location:
Post: #8
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
(04-13-2021 12:20 PM)KnightLight Wrote:  Only 3 G5 Teams ranked in the Top 40:

#27 Cincinnati
#35 Coastal Carolina
#36 Tulane

4 G5 teams in the top 40. App is #38
04-13-2021 12:32 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Attackcoog Offline
Moderator
*

Posts: 44,735
Joined: Oct 2011
Reputation: 2860
I Root For: Houston
Location:
Post: #9
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
I wonder why they have such low expectations of SMU? They seem like a team on the upswing.
04-13-2021 12:41 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Pony94 Online
Moderator
*

Posts: 25,650
Joined: Apr 2004
Reputation: 1177
I Root For: SMU
Location: Bee Cave, TX
Post: #10
ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
(04-13-2021 12:41 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I wonder why they have such low expectations of SMU? They seem like a team on the upswing.


Having seen practice, I think Mordecai is equal or better than Shane.
04-13-2021 12:48 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
BraveKnight Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,311
Joined: Jul 2019
Reputation: 210
I Root For: UCF
Location: Orlando
Post: #11
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
#70?? What a joke
04-13-2021 12:56 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


RobUCF Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,337
Joined: Nov 2010
Reputation: 104
I Root For: UCF
Location: Palm Harbor, FL
Post: #12
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
(04-13-2021 12:56 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  #70?? What a joke

I though so as well, then I looked at their preseason criteria. Apparently, the addition of a new coach is an automatic downgrade utilizing their formula.

Preseason ratings historically have their flaws, but ultimately they allow for an opponent adjustment after Week 1 and are a great tool to preview the season. As noted, there are four components to the preseason rating: prior performance, returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure.

-- Prior performance is built off the framework of expected points added. The most recent year’s performance is by far the most important piece of information powering preseason FPI, but three more years are added to measure consistency and account for outliers in performance. The most recent year counts almost twice as much as the three years before it.

-- Returning starters on offense and defense, with special consideration given to starting quarterbacks or transfer quarterbacks with starting experience, is the second piece of information powering preseason FPI. Because starters interact with other inputs, it’s not as simple as saying an extra returning starter is worth one point. Nonetheless, a starting quarterback is worth about 3.3 points per game to a team returning an average offense (all else equal), and a transfer quarterback is given half the weight of a starter.

-- FPI uses four recruiting services -- ESPN, Rivals, Scouts and Phil Steele -- to measure the talent on a team’s roster and add an additional piece of information about which teams are on the rise. The addition of recruiting has been a controversial piece of FPI, but it’s worth noting that it is a very minor component that helps with prediction accuracy.

-- Coaching tenure is primarily a way to capture the addition of a new head coach. With all else equal, a team’s predictive offensive, defensive and special teams ratings will regress slightly to the mean with the addition of a new coach.
04-13-2021 01:40 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Hurricane Drummer Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,784
Joined: Jul 2015
Reputation: 231
I Root For: Tulsa
Location:
Post: #13
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
Whatever data ESPN is feeding into their computer is not working well for them.
04-13-2021 01:54 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
KnightLight Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 27,664
Joined: Sep 2003
Reputation: 700
I Root For: UCF
Location:
Post: #14
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
(04-13-2021 12:32 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  
(04-13-2021 12:20 PM)KnightLight Wrote:  Only 4 G5 Teams ranked in the Top 40:

#27 Cincinnati
#35 Coastal Carolina
#36 Tulane
#38 App State

4 G5 teams in the top 40. App is #38

Good catch. Corrected.
04-13-2021 02:23 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
robertfoshizzle Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 6,981
Joined: Oct 2014
Reputation: 273
I Root For: Cincinnati
Location: Columbus
Post: #15
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
(04-13-2021 01:54 PM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote:  Whatever data ESPN is feeding into their computer is not working well for them.

Yeah, if my formula spit out these numbers, I'd scrap it and start over. Pathetic.
04-13-2021 03:25 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Casanova Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 132
Joined: Jan 2021
Reputation: 16
I Root For: UCF
Location:
Post: #16
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
ESPN showing why no one takes them seriously
04-13-2021 03:31 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


Sideshow2313 Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,641
Joined: Jul 2008
Reputation: 41
I Root For: UCF
Location:
Post: #17
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
It is definitely P-5 bias. Guess the results will be the judge of their assessment. Too bad there is a glass ceiling.
04-13-2021 03:31 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
oliveandblue Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 7,779
Joined: Jan 2013
Reputation: 251
I Root For: Tulane
Location:
Post: #18
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
If Tulane were really the #36 team, the Big XII would be calling.

I think we're a bit overrated (which is new and a sign of progress). Feels like a 7-6 year is coming as that schedule is tough.
04-13-2021 03:36 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
robertfoshizzle Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 6,981
Joined: Oct 2014
Reputation: 273
I Root For: Cincinnati
Location: Columbus
Post: #19
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
(04-13-2021 03:31 PM)Sideshow2313 Wrote:  It is definitely P-5 bias. Guess the results will be the judge of their assessment. Too bad there is a glass ceiling.

The good news is that Cincinnati arguably has the best chance to shatter the glass ceiling since the Houston team that beat Oklahoma and Louisville. We play Notre Dame (#11 FPI) and Indiana (#25 FPI), both on the road. Both games are winnable, but winning both on the road will be a tall task. That said, if the AAC is strong and Cincinnati runs the table, it would take some real cajones (or the misfortune of having 4 undefeated P5 champions) to keep UC out of the playoff.
04-13-2021 03:38 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
gulfcoastgal Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,299
Joined: Feb 2007
Reputation: 400
I Root For: Memphis Tigers
Location:
Post: #20
RE: ESPN FPI Rankings are out (for AAC and all teams)
(04-13-2021 01:40 PM)RobUCF Wrote:  
(04-13-2021 12:56 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  #70?? What a joke

I though so as well, then I looked at their preseason criteria. Apparently, the addition of a new coach is an automatic downgrade utilizing their formula.

Preseason ratings historically have their flaws, but ultimately they allow for an opponent adjustment after Week 1 and are a great tool to preview the season. As noted, there are four components to the preseason rating: prior performance, returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure.

-- Prior performance is built off the framework of expected points added. The most recent year’s performance is by far the most important piece of information powering preseason FPI, but three more years are added to measure consistency and account for outliers in performance. The most recent year counts almost twice as much as the three years before it.

-- Returning starters on offense and defense, with special consideration given to starting quarterbacks or transfer quarterbacks with starting experience, is the second piece of information powering preseason FPI. Because starters interact with other inputs, it’s not as simple as saying an extra returning starter is worth one point. Nonetheless, a starting quarterback is worth about 3.3 points per game to a team returning an average offense (all else equal), and a transfer quarterback is given half the weight of a starter.

-- FPI uses four recruiting services -- ESPN, Rivals, Scouts and Phil Steele -- to measure the talent on a team’s roster and add an additional piece of information about which teams are on the rise. The addition of recruiting has been a controversial piece of FPI, but it’s worth noting that it is a very minor component that helps with prediction accuracy.

-- Coaching tenure is primarily a way to capture the addition of a new head coach. With all else equal, a team’s predictive offensive, defensive and special teams ratings will regress slightly to the mean with the addition of a new coach.
Gotta figure 2020 will be the biggest outlier compared to previous and future years. It shouldn't be thrown out, but emphasizing it will most likely skew results when looking back in say 5 years. IOW, it was outside the typical FBS norms in regards to starting times, OOC games and conference games.
04-13-2021 03:42 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2024 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2024 MyBB Group.