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So when is Gonzaga going to a real conference?
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #121
RE: So when is Gonzaga going to a real conference?
(Yesterday 01:22 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(Yesterday 10:07 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Are you suggesting the Gonzaga program is "mid-major," Cutter?

No. Very much a major but in very much a non-major conference. But, unlike those programs over in the AAC, A10, or MWC, Gonzaga, when things don’t hold up in the non-conference, the pain of the conference schedule doesn’t help, whereas in those other places, it can help some get over the hump.

I look at VCU, Wichita State, and Utah State this year, and I suspect the conference overall, even if the top was thin, had a broad enough middle that helped project their bid worthiness, even if they couldn’t win their conference titles and earn the AQ’s. Counter that to the 2015-16 Gonzaga team, who did FAR better in the WCC respectively, and, yet, didn’t get help within because other than Saint Mary’s and maybe BYU, the conference stunk. That’s a unique problem to have...and there are lesser programs who benefit from better conference surroundings. It definitely helped VCU that Richmond, Dayton, Davidson, and Saint Louis were alright. Likewise, it helped Utah State that Colorado State and Boise State were competent, and Memphis propping up Wichita State. Gonzaga, if they’re not the WCC’s best (because Saint Mary’s or BYU has a fantastic team), lives and dies on the non-conference or winning the AQ. There is much less nuance. And that just sucks for them.


Ah, this all makes sense and I basically agree with you on all points.
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #122
RE: So when is Gonzaga going to a real conference?
(Yesterday 11:21 AM)Erictelevision Wrote:  It's been my impression that D.C., like NYC and L.A. are very transient cities.


I would think you are correct.
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #123
RE: So when is Gonzaga going to a real conference?
(Yesterday 10:29 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(Yesterday 10:06 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(Yesterday 04:41 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(04-10-2021 10:38 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  My take (and, compared to me, you have a much better feel for this as you are a former Georgetown student and D.C. resident, so maybe I'm way off base) is that the D.C. culture (particularly from white and international residents) is more Northeast, while the climate and history are more Southeast (with the Black culture of the city having a largely Southeast background in terms of ancestry). ... thus the "Mid-Atlantic."

Thing is, if the University is located in the "Mid-Atlantic" but the majority of the student body comes from the Northeast, the majority of the student body is likely to have a bigger impact on the character of the school.

In the context, it makes no difference ... a trip to the "Northeast" or to the "Mid-Atlantic" is a much shorter trip than a trip to Spokane, Washington for the four Great Lakes schools, and for the bulk of the conference, annual trips in multiple sports to Spokane is equally mad whether a school is located in the "Northeast" or "Mid-Atlantic".


Some good points, Bruce. Perhaps the best way to frame it is ...

Georgetown offers a "Northeast-esque university feel" and Washington D.C., more broadly, has a "Mid-Atlantic vibe."

It’s getting into the weeds here, sort of like distinguishing the Great Lakes Midwest versus the southern or plains portions of the Midwest (e.g. Cincinnati, Indianapolis, St. Louis). As a lifelong Chicagoan, I’ve always looked at DC (and everything North up to Boston and New England) as the “East Coast” and anything south of DC is the Southeast. As an outsider, the distinction between Northeast and Mid-Atlantic never even occurred to me until I frankly started following conference realignment. It was always just all “The East Coast” to me.

I’m sure people from outside of the Midwest just lump in Chicago and Detroit with places like St. Louis and Indianapolis simply because of geography even though *I* see tons of differences culturally having grown up here all my life. In reality, most of them are probably more micro-differences that are barely perceptible to outsiders, but proximity brings unusual hyperawareness of those micro-differences.


Your overall point is a strong one, Frank. Different people have different views regarding geographic and cultural elements for regions and cities of this great nation.

When I lived in Chicago, I met a decent number of folks from Tennessee and Kentucky. As a man born in Memphis and raised in Nashville, I long considered (before I moved there) Chicago as part of the "North" — and not really the Midwest. Obviously, it's both (so I was wrong).

I spent a summer in Manhattan in the early 1990s for an internship. I see New York as much more similar to Boston than I see NYC similar to D.C. But that's just me.

My brother-in-law is from Erie and his nephew attends the University of Pittsburgh. My brother-in-law (in Nashville) and his family (in Erie) consider Erie and Western PA more so "the North" and less so the "Northeast."

I find the most important and appealing elements of the Big East to be the fact that 1. all the schools (except UConn) are located in cities; 2. all (except UConn and Butler) are Catholic; and 3. all are basketball-first schools. The "Northeast element" of the league (though very important in a general sense to many BE fans) isn't as big a deal for me. But that can perhaps be explained by noting 1. I'm from the South and 2. I root for DePaul and loosely for Georgetown (the latter of which, as noted, I don't consider located in the Northeast).

For a UConn or Providence fan, for example, the perspective might be very different — and that "NE history/the Garden/league office" of the BE is hugely important. I can see that to be fair.
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #124
RE: So when is Gonzaga going to a real conference?
(Yesterday 01:45 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Gonzaga and Houston aren't mid major level but their conferences are holding them back and there is a ceiling and 2021 showed them that ceiling. No one expects them to beat Duke or Kentucky but if they can't beat Baylor when are they going to win? In the CFP this year, an unbeaten Cincinnati got left out but it was for a one loss team that lost to an undefeated team and it was still Notre Dame. Once undefeated G-5's get left out in favor of second level P-5's, then I'll really be convinced there's bias against them (not that there isn't already but it's still Notre Dame).

Houston and Cincy both, really. Programs that are no strangers to hoops success. Their conference affiliation tethers them to this mid-major perception, but, nobody should believe that about them. And, you’re right about Baylor (though the basketball success has been pretty consistent the last decade or so)...how would we respond if all of the sudden, Penn State or Nebraska started getting tournament bids consistently for a decade and then won it all? Does it erase the years of being total dog **** in the sport, and do we embrace them as majors because of the conference affiliation?

But I think Gonzaga has it more difficult than Houston, because even a slightly less impressive Houston could still find their way in and maybe seed favorably (for at least its first game). Gonzaga doesn’t have nearly the room to do that. I mean, we see years when Kansas can drop seven or eight games and still command a top line or two. If Gonzaga drops anywhere near that many losses, they have to win AQ, and are probably dropping down to 6-11 territory. And it’s not like Gonzaga loses to bad teams. They don’t (and seem to have not for quite some time). The WCC schedule just kills their metrics and bid case.

Consider Saint Mary’s this year. Beat up on Colorado State in a laugher. Wasn’t nearly as good this year, took some (not many) odd losses, and out of consideration they went. But put that same team in the MWC or A10? I bet even some better opponents gets them to look more like VCU...who didn’t really do anything but beat a Bonnie who, themselves, didn’t do that much.

These are the mid-major or major schools in non-major conferences’ woes. And they just don’t happen for the likes of those Baylor’s, or for the Penn State’s (should they ever break .500 with their ridiculous NET scores). Or, more what Gonzaga should project: the Xavier’s, Butler’s, and Creighton’s. Xavier wasn’t all that good this year...they still were quite close to a bid. That’s what the Big East schedule can do. Not to incite a mob, but, consider UConn this year...not fantastic, but, looks pretty strong when it’s in the Big East.

You know Gonzaga has to be thinking like that.
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panite Offline
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Post: #125
RE: So when is Gonzaga going to a real conference?
Gonzaga is in a real conference somewhere below the NBE and definitely equal to or slightly above the AAC. It's home conference is definitely below the P5 conferences though. 04-jawdrop 01-lauramac2 02-13-banana 03-cloud9 03-drunk 03-nutkick 03-lmfao 03-weeping 03-banghead 03-shhhh 03-phew 04-chairshot 04-rock 04-bow 05-stirthepot COGS 04-cheers
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schmolik Online
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Post: #126
RE: So when is Gonzaga going to a real conference?
(Yesterday 03:06 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(Yesterday 01:45 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Gonzaga and Houston aren't mid major level but their conferences are holding them back and there is a ceiling and 2021 showed them that ceiling. No one expects them to beat Duke or Kentucky but if they can't beat Baylor when are they going to win? In the CFP this year, an unbeaten Cincinnati got left out but it was for a one loss team that lost to an undefeated team and it was still Notre Dame. Once undefeated G-5's get left out in favor of second level P-5's, then I'll really be convinced there's bias against them (not that there isn't already but it's still Notre Dame).

Houston and Cincy both, really. Programs that are no strangers to hoops success. Their conference affiliation tethers them to this mid-major perception, but, nobody should believe that about them. And, you’re right about Baylor (though the basketball success has been pretty consistent the last decade or so)...how would we respond if all of the sudden, Penn State or Nebraska started getting tournament bids consistently for a decade and then won it all? Does it erase the years of being total dog **** in the sport, and do we embrace them as majors because of the conference affiliation?

But I think Gonzaga has it more difficult than Houston, because even a slightly less impressive Houston could still find their way in and maybe seed favorably (for at least its first game). Gonzaga doesn’t have nearly the room to do that. I mean, we see years when Kansas can drop seven or eight games and still command a top line or two. If Gonzaga drops anywhere near that many losses, they have to win AQ, and are probably dropping down to 6-11 territory. And it’s not like Gonzaga loses to bad teams. They don’t (and seem to have not for quite some time). The WCC schedule just kills their metrics and bid case.

Consider Saint Mary’s this year. Beat up on Colorado State in a laugher. Wasn’t nearly as good this year, took some (not many) odd losses, and out of consideration they went. But put that same team in the MWC or A10? I bet even some better opponents gets them to look more like VCU...who didn’t really do anything but beat a Bonnie who, themselves, didn’t do that much.

These are the mid-major or major schools in non-major conferences’ woes. And they just don’t happen for the likes of those Baylor’s, or for the Penn State’s (should they ever break .500 with their ridiculous NET scores). Or, more what Gonzaga should project: the Xavier’s, Butler’s, and Creighton’s. Xavier wasn’t all that good this year...they still were quite close to a bid. That’s what the Big East schedule can do. Not to incite a mob, but, consider UConn this year...not fantastic, but, looks pretty strong when it’s in the Big East.

You know Gonzaga has to be thinking like that.

Absolutely. Among mid majors, the AAC, A-10, and MWC appear to be the next level, getting multiple bids more often than not. If BYU or St. Mary's (or both) can be perennial NCAA teams, the WCC could be at the same level. The problem is Gonzaga and the WCC absolutely depend on BYU and/or St. Mary's to be consistently good. If they both have a bad season, who in the WCC picks up the slack? In a bad year for the MWC they probably have four or five teams capable of competing for the NCAA Tournament and only need three or even two of them for the MWC to have a good year or even a dark horse could come up. Same with the AAC.

Gonzaga is not a mid major. Gonzaga would be competitive or even successful in a geographically compatible major conference. I'd argue Houston is getting to the level where they aren't going to be considered a mid major anymore, they would be competitive or even successful in a geographically compatible major conference. Could you say that about most of the AAC, MWC, and A-10 teams? No. That's my definition of mid major teams.

But Gonzaga and Houston are still in mid major conferences and that's still important. Gonzaga's further along than Houston despite being in a weaker conference. So that's why I think if you put Gonzaga in a stronger conference (MWC vs. WCC) it might put them over the top. Houston isn't as good as Gonzaga and can't overcome being in the AAC ... yet.

Of course Gonzaga probably has to get another lucky break like they got in 2021 and not run into a Duke or Kentucky again like they did in 2017 (North Carolina). If they have the talented team they had in 2021, had the lucky breaks/level of competition they got in 2021, and were better tested than they were in 2021 (remember they didn't have as many non conference games to prepare themselves as they would in a non COVID-19 year), they probably win the national championship. Most people in the bracket contest (including me) picked Gonzaga to win and most people in the poll picked Gonzaga to beat Baylor. There's no doubt Gonzaga can win the national championship, the question is how can they?
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Post: #127
RE: So when is Gonzaga going to a real conference?
(Yesterday 03:48 PM)panite Wrote:  Gonzaga is in a real conference somewhere below the NBE and definitely equal to or slightly above the AAC. It's home conference is definitely below the P5 conferences though. 04-jawdrop 01-lauramac2 02-13-banana 03-cloud9 03-drunk 03-nutkick 03-lmfao 03-weeping 03-banghead 03-shhhh 03-phew 04-chairshot 04-rock 04-bow 05-stirthepot COGS 04-cheers

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Post: #128
RE: So when is Gonzaga going to a real conference?
(Yesterday 04:06 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(Yesterday 03:06 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(Yesterday 01:45 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Gonzaga and Houston aren't mid major level but their conferences are holding them back and there is a ceiling and 2021 showed them that ceiling. No one expects them to beat Duke or Kentucky but if they can't beat Baylor when are they going to win? In the CFP this year, an unbeaten Cincinnati got left out but it was for a one loss team that lost to an undefeated team and it was still Notre Dame. Once undefeated G-5's get left out in favor of second level P-5's, then I'll really be convinced there's bias against them (not that there isn't already but it's still Notre Dame).

Houston and Cincy both, really. Programs that are no strangers to hoops success. Their conference affiliation tethers them to this mid-major perception, but, nobody should believe that about them. And, you’re right about Baylor (though the basketball success has been pretty consistent the last decade or so)...how would we respond if all of the sudden, Penn State or Nebraska started getting tournament bids consistently for a decade and then won it all? Does it erase the years of being total dog **** in the sport, and do we embrace them as majors because of the conference affiliation?

But I think Gonzaga has it more difficult than Houston, because even a slightly less impressive Houston could still find their way in and maybe seed favorably (for at least its first game). Gonzaga doesn’t have nearly the room to do that. I mean, we see years when Kansas can drop seven or eight games and still command a top line or two. If Gonzaga drops anywhere near that many losses, they have to win AQ, and are probably dropping down to 6-11 territory. And it’s not like Gonzaga loses to bad teams. They don’t (and seem to have not for quite some time). The WCC schedule just kills their metrics and bid case.

Consider Saint Mary’s this year. Beat up on Colorado State in a laugher. Wasn’t nearly as good this year, took some (not many) odd losses, and out of consideration they went. But put that same team in the MWC or A10? I bet even some better opponents gets them to look more like VCU...who didn’t really do anything but beat a Bonnie who, themselves, didn’t do that much.

These are the mid-major or major schools in non-major conferences’ woes. And they just don’t happen for the likes of those Baylor’s, or for the Penn State’s (should they ever break .500 with their ridiculous NET scores). Or, more what Gonzaga should project: the Xavier’s, Butler’s, and Creighton’s. Xavier wasn’t all that good this year...they still were quite close to a bid. That’s what the Big East schedule can do. Not to incite a mob, but, consider UConn this year...not fantastic, but, looks pretty strong when it’s in the Big East.

You know Gonzaga has to be thinking like that.

Absolutely. Among mid majors, the AAC, A-10, and MWC appear to be the next level, getting multiple bids more often than not. If BYU or St. Mary's (or both) can be perennial NCAA teams, the WCC could be at the same level. The problem is Gonzaga and the WCC absolutely depend on BYU and/or St. Mary's to be consistently good. If they both have a bad season, who in the WCC picks up the slack? In a bad year for the MWC they probably have four or five teams capable of competing for the NCAA Tournament and only need three or even two of them for the MWC to have a good year or even a dark horse could come up. Same with the AAC.

Gonzaga is not a mid major. Gonzaga would be competitive or even successful in a geographically compatible major conference. I'd argue Houston is getting to the level where they aren't going to be considered a mid major anymore, they would be competitive or even successful in a geographically compatible major conference. Could you say that about most of the AAC, MWC, and A-10 teams? No. That's my definition of mid major teams.

But Gonzaga and Houston are still in mid major conferences and that's still important. Gonzaga's further along than Houston despite being in a weaker conference. So that's why I think if you put Gonzaga in a stronger conference (MWC vs. WCC) it might put them over the top. Houston isn't as good as Gonzaga and can't overcome being in the AAC ... yet.

Of course Gonzaga probably has to get another lucky break like they got in 2021 and not run into a Duke or Kentucky again like they did in 2017 (North Carolina). If they have the talented team they had in 2021, had the lucky breaks/level of competition they got in 2021, and were better tested than they were in 2021 (remember they didn't have as many non conference games to prepare themselves as they would in a non COVID-19 year), they probably win the national championship. Most people in the bracket contest (including me) picked Gonzaga to win and most people in the poll picked Gonzaga to beat Baylor. There's no doubt Gonzaga can win the national championship, the question is how can they?

I wouldn’t call the AAC a power conference in basketball, but it’s not a midmajor, either. It’s certainly deeper than the WCC.

That being said, I pretty firmly believe that Gonzaga has a brand that goes beyond the WCC at this point. It’s almost as if they’re treated like a power-level independent like Notre Dame in football. So, the WCC itself isn’t going to hold them back from a winning a National title. I mean, I’m a Big Ten guy through and through... but the Big Ten hasn’t had a team win the national championship since 2000 despite having a larger financial advantage in basketball funding over everyone else compared to 20 years ago. I certainly don’t think it’s the Big Ten that’s holding any particular school back in winning the national title - in any given year, it takes a specific team with specific talent putting together the right run at the right time. This isn’t like football where there is clearly a lot of entrenched structural advantages from being in a conference and depth matters so much. One elite player can take a basketball team far in a way that is impossible in football (even at QB).
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Post: #129
RE: So when is Gonzaga going to a real conference?
(Yesterday 04:06 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(Yesterday 03:06 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(Yesterday 01:45 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Gonzaga and Houston aren't mid major level but their conferences are holding them back and there is a ceiling and 2021 showed them that ceiling. No one expects them to beat Duke or Kentucky but if they can't beat Baylor when are they going to win? In the CFP this year, an unbeaten Cincinnati got left out but it was for a one loss team that lost to an undefeated team and it was still Notre Dame. Once undefeated G-5's get left out in favor of second level P-5's, then I'll really be convinced there's bias against them (not that there isn't already but it's still Notre Dame).

Houston and Cincy both, really. Programs that are no strangers to hoops success. Their conference affiliation tethers them to this mid-major perception, but, nobody should believe that about them. And, you’re right about Baylor (though the basketball success has been pretty consistent the last decade or so)...how would we respond if all of the sudden, Penn State or Nebraska started getting tournament bids consistently for a decade and then won it all? Does it erase the years of being total dog **** in the sport, and do we embrace them as majors because of the conference affiliation?

But I think Gonzaga has it more difficult than Houston, because even a slightly less impressive Houston could still find their way in and maybe seed favorably (for at least its first game). Gonzaga doesn’t have nearly the room to do that. I mean, we see years when Kansas can drop seven or eight games and still command a top line or two. If Gonzaga drops anywhere near that many losses, they have to win AQ, and are probably dropping down to 6-11 territory. And it’s not like Gonzaga loses to bad teams. They don’t (and seem to have not for quite some time). The WCC schedule just kills their metrics and bid case.

Consider Saint Mary’s this year. Beat up on Colorado State in a laugher. Wasn’t nearly as good this year, took some (not many) odd losses, and out of consideration they went. But put that same team in the MWC or A10? I bet even some better opponents gets them to look more like VCU...who didn’t really do anything but beat a Bonnie who, themselves, didn’t do that much.

These are the mid-major or major schools in non-major conferences’ woes. And they just don’t happen for the likes of those Baylor’s, or for the Penn State’s (should they ever break .500 with their ridiculous NET scores). Or, more what Gonzaga should project: the Xavier’s, Butler’s, and Creighton’s. Xavier wasn’t all that good this year...they still were quite close to a bid. That’s what the Big East schedule can do. Not to incite a mob, but, consider UConn this year...not fantastic, but, looks pretty strong when it’s in the Big East.

You know Gonzaga has to be thinking like that.

Absolutely. Among mid majors, the AAC, A-10, and MWC appear to be the next level, getting multiple bids more often than not. If BYU or St. Mary's (or both) can be perennial NCAA teams, the WCC could be at the same level. The problem is Gonzaga and the WCC absolutely depend on BYU and/or St. Mary's to be consistently good. If they both have a bad season, who in the WCC picks up the slack? In a bad year for the MWC they probably have four or five teams capable of competing for the NCAA Tournament and only need three or even two of them for the MWC to have a good year or even a dark horse could come up. Same with the AAC.

Gonzaga is not a mid major. Gonzaga would be competitive or even successful in a geographically compatible major conference. I'd argue Houston is getting to the level where they aren't going to be considered a mid major anymore, they would be competitive or even successful in a geographically compatible major conference. Could you say that about most of the AAC, MWC, and A-10 teams? No. That's my definition of mid major teams.

But Gonzaga and Houston are still in mid major conferences and that's still important. Gonzaga's further along than Houston despite being in a weaker conference. So that's why I think if you put Gonzaga in a stronger conference (MWC vs. WCC) it might put them over the top. Houston isn't as good as Gonzaga and can't overcome being in the AAC ... yet.

Of course Gonzaga probably has to get another lucky break like they got in 2021 and not run into a Duke or Kentucky again like they did in 2017 (North Carolina). If they have the talented team they had in 2021, had the lucky breaks/level of competition they got in 2021, and were better tested than they were in 2021 (remember they didn't have as many non conference games to prepare themselves as they would in a non COVID-19 year), they probably win the national championship. Most people in the bracket contest (including me) picked Gonzaga to win and most people in the poll picked Gonzaga to beat Baylor. There's no doubt Gonzaga can win the national championship, the question is how can they?

In a bad year for the MWC, their teams go one and done. Like they did recently in 2016, 2017, 2019 and 2021. Other than Nevada's Sweet 16 run in 2018 everyone else has bowed out in the first round. Just two Tournament wins for the whole league in the last five Tournaments. Oral Roberts beat that by themselves in 2021.

The MWC has been reduced to a 1-2 bid league six of the last seven tournaments. New coaching hires at UNM, USU, SJSU and UNLV could fix that but it remains to be seen.
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