Frank the Tank
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RE: So when is Gonzaga going to a real conference?
(04-11-2021 04:06 PM)schmolik Wrote: (04-11-2021 03:06 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote: (04-11-2021 01:45 PM)schmolik Wrote: Gonzaga and Houston aren't mid major level but their conferences are holding them back and there is a ceiling and 2021 showed them that ceiling. No one expects them to beat Duke or Kentucky but if they can't beat Baylor when are they going to win? In the CFP this year, an unbeaten Cincinnati got left out but it was for a one loss team that lost to an undefeated team and it was still Notre Dame. Once undefeated G-5's get left out in favor of second level P-5's, then I'll really be convinced there's bias against them (not that there isn't already but it's still Notre Dame).
Houston and Cincy both, really. Programs that are no strangers to hoops success. Their conference affiliation tethers them to this mid-major perception, but, nobody should believe that about them. And, you’re right about Baylor (though the basketball success has been pretty consistent the last decade or so)...how would we respond if all of the sudden, Penn State or Nebraska started getting tournament bids consistently for a decade and then won it all? Does it erase the years of being total dog **** in the sport, and do we embrace them as majors because of the conference affiliation?
But I think Gonzaga has it more difficult than Houston, because even a slightly less impressive Houston could still find their way in and maybe seed favorably (for at least its first game). Gonzaga doesn’t have nearly the room to do that. I mean, we see years when Kansas can drop seven or eight games and still command a top line or two. If Gonzaga drops anywhere near that many losses, they have to win AQ, and are probably dropping down to 6-11 territory. And it’s not like Gonzaga loses to bad teams. They don’t (and seem to have not for quite some time). The WCC schedule just kills their metrics and bid case.
Consider Saint Mary’s this year. Beat up on Colorado State in a laugher. Wasn’t nearly as good this year, took some (not many) odd losses, and out of consideration they went. But put that same team in the MWC or A10? I bet even some better opponents gets them to look more like VCU...who didn’t really do anything but beat a Bonnie who, themselves, didn’t do that much.
These are the mid-major or major schools in non-major conferences’ woes. And they just don’t happen for the likes of those Baylor’s, or for the Penn State’s (should they ever break .500 with their ridiculous NET scores). Or, more what Gonzaga should project: the Xavier’s, Butler’s, and Creighton’s. Xavier wasn’t all that good this year...they still were quite close to a bid. That’s what the Big East schedule can do. Not to incite a mob, but, consider UConn this year...not fantastic, but, looks pretty strong when it’s in the Big East.
You know Gonzaga has to be thinking like that.
Absolutely. Among mid majors, the AAC, A-10, and MWC appear to be the next level, getting multiple bids more often than not. If BYU or St. Mary's (or both) can be perennial NCAA teams, the WCC could be at the same level. The problem is Gonzaga and the WCC absolutely depend on BYU and/or St. Mary's to be consistently good. If they both have a bad season, who in the WCC picks up the slack? In a bad year for the MWC they probably have four or five teams capable of competing for the NCAA Tournament and only need three or even two of them for the MWC to have a good year or even a dark horse could come up. Same with the AAC.
Gonzaga is not a mid major. Gonzaga would be competitive or even successful in a geographically compatible major conference. I'd argue Houston is getting to the level where they aren't going to be considered a mid major anymore, they would be competitive or even successful in a geographically compatible major conference. Could you say that about most of the AAC, MWC, and A-10 teams? No. That's my definition of mid major teams.
But Gonzaga and Houston are still in mid major conferences and that's still important. Gonzaga's further along than Houston despite being in a weaker conference. So that's why I think if you put Gonzaga in a stronger conference (MWC vs. WCC) it might put them over the top. Houston isn't as good as Gonzaga and can't overcome being in the AAC ... yet.
Of course Gonzaga probably has to get another lucky break like they got in 2021 and not run into a Duke or Kentucky again like they did in 2017 (North Carolina). If they have the talented team they had in 2021, had the lucky breaks/level of competition they got in 2021, and were better tested than they were in 2021 (remember they didn't have as many non conference games to prepare themselves as they would in a non COVID-19 year), they probably win the national championship. Most people in the bracket contest (including me) picked Gonzaga to win and most people in the poll picked Gonzaga to beat Baylor. There's no doubt Gonzaga can win the national championship, the question is how can they?
I wouldn’t call the AAC a power conference in basketball, but it’s not a midmajor, either. It’s certainly deeper than the WCC.
That being said, I pretty firmly believe that Gonzaga has a brand that goes beyond the WCC at this point. It’s almost as if they’re treated like a power-level independent like Notre Dame in football. So, the WCC itself isn’t going to hold them back from a winning a National title. I mean, I’m a Big Ten guy through and through... but the Big Ten hasn’t had a team win the national championship since 2000 despite having a larger financial advantage in basketball funding over everyone else compared to 20 years ago. I certainly don’t think it’s the Big Ten that’s holding any particular school back in winning the national title - in any given year, it takes a specific team with specific talent putting together the right run at the right time. This isn’t like football where there is clearly a lot of entrenched structural advantages from being in a conference and depth matters so much. One elite player can take a basketball team far in a way that is impossible in football (even at QB).
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